Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
678

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – December – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

It wouldn’t be an understatement to say that Fed actually pleased global market players during last week. The central-bank not only raised its benchmark interest-rate with 0.25%, matching general expectations, but also provided some additional gifts to investors before they enter into holiday season. Let’s quickly discuss what the headlines of last week were and what’s there for traders’ fraternity during the current week.

[B]Fed Ruled, Greenback Shines[/B]

With busy start, the early week trade-pattern was mostly against greenback as upbeat Chinese Manufacturing details and UK Jobs & CPI figures pleased commodity currencies and GBP respectively while strong ZEW numbers helped EUR. However, the FOMC, on Wednesday, changed everything with its promised rate-hike, the first in 2016, together with signaling three such steps during 2017, against two expected earlier. The Fed also raised its economic projections and fueled the US Dollar to register best week since 2008. The EUR, GBP and commodity currencies extended their downturn after the result announcement while JPY plunged heavily. Further, the Crude prices also fade its upside while Gold extended its south-run. All in all, SNB, BoE and some other headline figures lost their importance due to Fed’s welcome actions.

[B]Geo-Politics Triggered Week-Start[/B]

Following last week’s upbeat sentiment, China’s seizure of US Naval drone, during weekend, triggered the week-start with renewed geo-political risks, that in-turn helped JPY and Gold prices on Monday. Additionally, killing of Russian envoy in Turkey, coupled with news that truck rammed into a Christmas market of Germany, provided additional fuel to risky trades.

Further, monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also matched forecasts with no change in its present measures but raised economic forecasts. Though, JPY couldn’t enjoy such decision as the board keep remaining dovish and feared of Fed’s move. Moving on, the Crude prices also weakened a bit on profit-booking moves while the USD trimmed some of its recent gains.

[B]What’s Next?[/B]

Moving further, GDP releases from US, UK, Canada and New-Zealand, coupled with US Durable Goods Orders and Housing figures, can keep entertaining market players for the upcoming week. However, chances of the weaker US prints to hurt greenback a bit, together with NZ details to help NZD are higher. Though, nearness to year-end holiday season can keep restricting near-term market moves and traders would be more willing to cash-out from profits then to take new trades and worry about future.

[B]From Technical Desk[/B]

Technically, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and NZDUSD are likely pairs that would be affected during the upcoming week as scheduled releases are more concerned with them while geo-political tensions can keep offering good trades to JPY traders.

While EURUSD sustains its downturn below 1.0400, it keep signaling parity level but with lesser liquidity it may end-up resting around 1.0200 region. However, a clear break of 1.0400 may trigger the pair’s profit-booking towards 1.0680-90 and then to 1.0800 mark. GBPUSD and NZDUSD also indicate technical weakness to test 1.2130 and 0.6840 unless they trade below 1.2550 and the 0.7030 while 120.00 continue being strong resistance for the USDJPY, which in-turn signals brighter chances of its pullback to 115.30-40 area.

Have a nice trading-day …………

679

Got hit with a trailing stop in short AUDUSD trade. It was a good trade. And I think the dollar still shines. Just shorted the EURUSD at 1.0410. Looks like 1.0260 might be a good objective.

680

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – December – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Except early-day moves, mainly due to BoJ meeting and RBA minutes, absence of major economics confined global market volatility on Tuesday; however, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) remained as traders’ favorite due to prospect of rich US economic-environment going forward. The JPY had to bear the burden of Kuroda’s word that weaker Japanese currency is actually favorable while GBP couldn’t enjoy year’s UK Retail Sales figures as per Confederation of British Industry. Further, the EUR remained weak with German incident giving rise to pessimism but the CAD managed to rise on Crude advances as traders expect larger drawdown in US stockpiles during today’s release. Additionally, the NZD also fell against greenback with higher than expected trade deficit whereas AUD stopped its downside on upbeat sentiment for commodity prices.

Moving forward, today’s US Existing Home Sales, weekly release of Crude inventories and New-Zealand quarterly GDP are something that traders can observe during the day. However, nearness to holiday season can keep thinning market volumes but the USD is less likely to lose its charm.

Being the first US release, the housing market figure is more likely to portray immediate greenback moves, mostly to upside, before tomorrow’s heavily packed economic calendar comes into play. Further, the NZD has already lost majority of its gains and a better GDP print can trigger noticeable pullback by the Kiwi, as the New-Zealand Dollar is termed mostly.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Considering the NZDUSD’s sustained trading below 0.6960-70 horizontal resistance-zone, the pair signals brighter chances to mark 0.6850 on the chart but New-Zealand GDP will be crucial to watch. Further, EURUSD and GBPUSD also bounced-off from their recent lows and may extend their pullbacks given today’s US release flash weaker signals. However, overall trend remains down for both of them.

Have a nice trading-day …………

681

Agree with you when you expect 1.0260 :slight_smile:

682

"but the CAD managed to rise on Crude advances as traders expect larger drawdown in US stockpiles during today’s release. "

Read more: http://forums.babypips.com/fundamental-ville/65954-daily-fundamental-dose.html#ixzz4TVccIYPW


If crude storage is up and distillates down , won’t that balance out later? I think the USDCAD will turn downward a few days anyway. we’ll see. I just shorted it at 1.3400 even for hopefully a day or two, before the US dollar starts to power drive again…

683

Hold on till the day-end as US figures will clear the picture. Appreciate your risk-taking capacity. :slight_smile:

684

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 22 – December – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Although US Existing Home Sales registered noticeable upside on Wednesday, the US Dollar failed to depict the happiness and weakened for the day due to light trading ahead of the holiday season and nearness to crucial releases on Thursday. The EUR managed to witness pullback recovery whereas JPY and Gold remained sluggish with no major economics-political news. Further, Crude prices dropped on unexpectedly five-week high US inventory figures, which in-turn dragged CAD to south, while AUD and NZD extended their south-run even as the New-Zealand GDP surpassed forecasts. Additionally, GBP couldn’t refrain from declining as Brexit fears forced traders to cash-out during the year-end low-liquid markets.

On early Thursday, the US Dollar remained softer ahead of the important releases concerning GDP, Durable Goods Orders, Personal Spendings and Weekly Jobless Claims but GBP and NZD could bounce with fresh profit-booking. Further, the Crude prices also recovered some of its recent losses as investors now focus on global producers’ capacity to curb supply-glut while Gold and JPY kept weakening with lesser safe-haven demand.

While looking at the forecasts, it is more likely that US GDP and Personal Spendings could please greenback traders with much welcomed releases but Durable Goods Orders might disappoint USD and can also drag it to south if such figure drops excessively. In addition to the US releases, Canadian CPI & Retail Sales are also up for release and are flashing mixed signals. Hence, movement in the Crude prices will be observed more while predicting CAD moves.

To sum up, global markets have been quiet since the week-start and with crucial releases on card chances of witnessing noticeable movement, mainly concerning CAD and USD, can’t be denied. However, holiday-season mood isn’t likely to lose its charm and may keep hurting trade-sentiment.

[B]Technical Points[/B]

With various US and Canadian details scheduled, USDCAD becomes an important pair to observe. The pair struggles to clear 1.3450 resistance and either upbeat US details or weaker Canadian figures could fuel the pair further up towards 1.3540. However, disappointment from US numbers may have larger repercussions and could fetch the Loonie pair to 1.3355 and the 1.3315 support-levels. Further, CADJPY seems also losing its upside momentum and can revisit 86.15-10 area while EURGBP is heading towards 0.8465-70 resistance, breaking which enables it to aim for 0.8500.

Have a nice trading-day …………

685

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 23 – December – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even after US GDP confirmed two-year growth figure for world’s largest economy, downbeat prints of Personal Income and Durable Goods Orders curbed US Dollar gains on Thursday. The EUR managed to register a positive daily closing after Bundesbank’s Weidmann cautioned the ECB not to hike rates too late while GBP maintained its south-run in absence any releases. Further, the AUD extended its drop while CAD couldn’t follow Crude gains due to disappointing Inflation figures. Additionally, the JPY and Gold remained soft with higher US GDP while NZD reversed bit of profit-booking.

During early-day trading, major currencies are witnessing a bit U-turn with some investors flashing their doubts on US GDP’s capacity to sustain the latest figure. Further, there are also concerns relating to Crude supply-glut to shrink sooner than thought and Gold to witness a bounce after such a plunge during recent-days. Moreover, AUD and NZD may also register a bit of profit-booking with an expect soft USD giving rise to increased commodity prices.

Moving further, Friday is adjacent to Christmas and majority of traders are likely to remain calm with no major US releases, except New Home Sales. However, UK & Canadian GDP numbers may help witness mild moves in GBP and CAD pairs. It should also be noted that Japanese markets are closed for the day due to Emperor’s Birthday holiday and the same may provide additional reins to market-moves.

[B]Technical Desk[/B]

Considering today’s scheduled releases from UK & Canada, GBPCAD is more likely to depict noticeable moves wherein the pair is expected to extend its downside in case of weaker British GDP number. However, 1.6480 continue offering strong support to the piar. On the other hand, GBPUSD’s recent break below 1.2310 – 1.2300 horizontal-support can keep dragging the quote to south whereas 143.70 becomes important support for GBPJPY.

Have a nice trading-day …………

686

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26 – December – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

As we come closer to 2016-end, market players’ holiday-mood gets an additional support via lack of economic details to observe. However, US Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales, together with Japanese Inflation and Unemployment figures, may offer intermediate moves to traders’ fraternity. Let’s quickly understand them.

[B]What’s there in Past?[/B]

Looking backwards, last week’s German figures helped EUR to register its first positive weekly closing against US Dollar in three while BoJ meeting helped JPY to stop its south-run and end the week on the positive side. However, the greenback remained solid against rest of the majors as upbeat GDP and housing figures could confront with soft durable goods orders. Further, the AUD and NZD couldn’t stop their previous declines on weaker commodity basket while CAD had to dip on Crude prices which dropped on unexpectedly high inventory rise. Additionally, the Gold could stop its downside while GBP failed to reflect upbeat GDP growth.

[B]What To Look Next?[/B]

Alike last week, the present week’s market moves are also likely to be confined by lack of economic data-points and year-end holiday season at major economies. On Monday, majority of the markets are closed with Japanese Inflation and Unemployment being the only reading to follow. Moving forward, Tuesday’s US CB Consumer Confidence, Wednesday’s US Pending Home Sales and US Chicago PMI, up for Friday, are likely following numbers to observe.
While US economic calendar is likely to welcome figures and can help US Dollar to close the year with a positive sign, Japanese details may also help the JPY to extend its recent pullback towards testing 115.00 – 114.80 region.

[B]Technical Details[/B]

Considering EURUSD’s bounce from 1.0350, coupled with lack of major events, chances of the pair’s further downside are less likely and 1.0280 -1.0250 becomes nearby important support to watch with 1.0550 may restrict the pair’s downside. AUDUSD and NZDUSD are near to their 0.7140 and the 0.6840-45 supports with brighter chances of pullback towards 0.7000 and the 0.7300 while break of supports may flash 0.7000 and the 0.6750 downside figures for these pairs respectively. Additionally, USDCAD may find it hard to surpass 1.3680 while GBPUSD may avoid dipping below 1.2080-75 region.

Have a nice trading-day …………

687

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – December – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

As major financial markets reopen after a long holiday weekend, traders started favoring the US Dollar with the hope that scheduled data-points, mainly CB Consumer Confidence, S&P/CS Composite HPI & Richmond Manufacturing Index, could keep portraying upbeat sentiment at world’s largest economy. However, the EUR refrains from declining at present while disappointing Inflation, Unemployment and Spending details again dragged the JPY toward south. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD kept weakening with no major cues but Crude prices remained firm as investors assume a reduction in supply-glut after major producers start curtailing output from January 2017. Additionally, the Gold is rising with year-end buying but the same is less likely to sustain for long after US markets favor greenback Bulls.

Moving forward, financial markets in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Hong Kong are closed today and hence no further details are expected from these nations, which in-turn could keep making Commodity Bears alive. Though, day-end releases of Industrial Production and Retail Sales from Japan may provide decisive moves to the JPY.

Forecasts concerning US CB Consumer Confidence signal fresh highs of more than 9 years by the cosumer sentiment gauge, which in-turn could help USD extend its upward trajectory but a bit soft prints from S&P Housing Price Index and Richmond Manufacturing, coupled with holiday-season may curb greenback gains.

To sum up, even if the holiday season can keep restricting global market moves during the week, today’s US data-points may help providing some liquid moves to traders fraternity.

[B]Technical Desk[/B]

Even as 1.0430 keep providing bounce to the EURUSD, the pair is less likely to surpass 1.0470 resistance-mark while USDJPY may rally if it break immediate symmetrical triangle formation. Further, EURJPY trades at adjacent support-line and a break can drag the quote to 122.00 support.

Have a nice trading-day …………

688

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – December – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

Holiday doldrums kept restricting global market-moves as even with highest US Consumer Confidence print since August 2001 and upbeat readings of Richmond Manufacturing Index & S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, there was little movement in trading. However, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to close the day in positive territory while EUR also gained a bit. The Crude maintained its north-run with expectations that output-cut from OPEC and non-OPEC producers will be a strong action to help energy market. The AUD, NZD and CAD kept trading down with rising USD hurting commodity prices whereas GBP and JPY again dipped due to present pessimism about UK economy and Japan’s favor for loose monetary policy respectively.

Moving forward, Japan’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales recently pleased JPY traders with a bit of bounce and commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, also registered noticeable swings. Additionally, EUR and GBP also flashed some positive figures ahead of the US Pending Home Sales figure, the only important reading to be observed during the rest of the day.

Even if most major markets are open on Wednesday, there seems no important economics scheduled to observe, which coupled with holiday-season, could keep limiting today’s market move. However, upbeat housing market figure can help greenback recover some of its recent losses and keep rising to north.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

As the UK markets are going to open today after a long weekend break and the same is likely to provide some GBP moves, making GBPUSD an important pair for the day. Additionally, recent recovery in AUDUSD and NZDUSD should also be termed as giving good chances for sellers as the overall view remains bearish for them.

Have a nice trading-day …………

689

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 30 – December – 2016[/B]

Hello Traders,

The year 2016, marked by major political surprises, comprising Brexit, Italian referendum and US election results to form headlines, didn’t lose a chance to shake global markets during last-days of the December. This time it was again from US as the present US President, Barack Obama, levied various sanctions against Russia over its election hacks. The President took a hard stance against Russia for its cyber attacks to interfere in 2016 presidential campaign by imposing sanctions on top Russian intelligence agencies and expelled 35 Russian operatives from US while releasing evidence of the hacking on Thursday. With this, renewed worries over the US-Russia relationship dragged the US Dollar down even if Jobless Claims dropped for third consecutive week. The same political news helped safe-havens, including JPY and Gold, while EUR and GBP enjoyed counter-strength advantage from the greenback. Further, with the USD decline, commodities were also on the north-run, which in-turn helped AUD, CAD and NZD to register noticeable gains on the daily closing basis.

Moving towards the last trading-day of 2016, traders kept rolling their USD longs and stepped up buying Gold and JPY during early hours which could be witnessed as a spike on chart. However, the investors’ fraternity may take a halt during late-hours with no major economics, except Spanish Flash CPI and US Chicago PMI. While Spanish CPI is likely to provide additional strength to the EUR, the USD may get another weak-spot if PMI meets soft forecasts.

To sum up, upcoming year-end celebrations may restrict traders from acquiring their desks while fewer economics can help them remain away from their terminals and hence it is more likely to have a quiet late-day trading sessions with few upticks by ex-USD currencies.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Considering the USDCAD’s sustained trading below 1.3480, chances of its further downside towards 1.3445 and the 1.3410 become brighter while an upside break above 1.3480 still has 1.3510 as another strong resistance to confront. Further, USDCHF’s “Rising-Wedge” confirmation signals its additional drop to 1.0130 and the 1.0050 while USDJPY is more likely to struggle between 117.00 and 116.20 region.

Have a nice trading-day …………

690

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 02 – January – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

At the end of all political drama, OPEC decision and Fed actions that drove 2016 to be a crazy year, markets finally enter into the year 2017 with majority of them still expecting Fed and EU-UK to become major triggers. The US Dollar, undoubtedly became winner for fourth consecutive year, with nearly 2.8% gain, while EUR trimmed more than 3.0% and the GBP became biggest loser amongst G10 countries with 16% drop. Further, the Gold and JPY closed the year with minimal gains while Crude managed to post impressive north-run. Being the first week of the year and month, headline PMIs from UK, US Jobs report and EU CPI are likely to provide noticeable market moves. However, it would be better to first understand what last week’s influences were prior to discussing what is expected from current week.

[B]Last Week Of 2016[/B]

During last week of 2016, majority of global markets were closed due to year-end holidays; however, markets witnessed a sudden spike on Friday in EUR prices when Algo trades triggered the regional currency’s rally, which in-turn helped CHF and JPY as well. The US Dollar failed to enjoy CB Consumer Confidence figure as downbeat Housing and Chicago PMI details favored profit-booking whereas GBP also recovered a bit with no major releases while AUD, NZD and CAD kept celebrating commodity advances.

[B]What’s There In The First Week Of 2017?[/B]

As come to the first full week of 2017, headline UK PMI, EU Flash CPI and US Job numbers could provide active trades to investors after they comeback from holidays. Some major economices are still on close during Monday and will get back to normal on Tuesday.

On Sunday, Chinese official Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs printed soft numbers but remained near to latest upbeat figures and hence commodity traders are expecting to be a good start of the year.
At US, presence of FOMC meeting minutes, US Jobs report and Factory Orders are all likely to provide a good push to the greenback’s north-run while EU CPI is also expected to provide upbeat figure which may help EUR extend its recent recovery.

Further, UK PMIs are likely flashing soft figures and nearness to Article 50 negotiation could continjue hurting the GBP whereas CAD, AUD and NZD may witness some profit-booking on the back of strong USD and a bit of correction in commodity prices.

[B]From Technical Desk[/B]

Technically, the EURUSD is less likely to surpass 1.0850-60 resistance-region but a break above 1.0570-80 can help it test 1.0800 area provided US details disappoint greenback traders. Further, GBPUSD keep remaining weaker unless breaking 1.2770 with 1.2550 acting as nearby resistance where as USDJPY can’t be termed as weak unless it closes below 114.50 and hence keep being a strong contestant to flash 120+ mark on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day …………

691

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03 – January – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even if Monday was considered to be the first trading day of 2017, most markets were shut, except EU, and traders’ fraternity remained clueless with little movement. However, the US Dollar maintained its strength and EUR also remained firm due to upbeat Manufacturing PMIs from major European economies. The AUD, NZD and CAD witnessed sluggish activity while GBP and JPY stretched their previous southward trend to fresh-year. Further, the Gold and Crude prices were mostly unchanged with no fresh economic signals.

Coming to the first active-day of 2017 when almost all the major economies are scheduled for open, global financial markets started with volatile trades but not against the USD. Moving on, latest Chinese release of Caixin Manufacturing PMI pleased commodity traders and commodity currencies, especially to the AUD, as the gauge rallied to more than 3 years’ high while comments from Kuwait, which started acting on its agreed production-cuts, provided additional strength to Crude prices, which then were enjoyed by the CAD. Additionally, the JPY kept declining even with Japanese market’s close while Gold seems also taking a U-turn, after rising during early hours, and the GBP remained weaker.

Following upbeat release of Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, certain other manufacturing gauges from Switzerland, UK and US are likely to provide liquid trading opportunity to market players. Among them, US figure is expected to help accelerate the greenback’s upside while the rest are likely to favor respective currencies’ advances.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

As traders are coming back from long year-end holidays, presence of headline PMIs are likely to receive much attention. Amongst them, EURUSD, GBPUSD and GBPAUD are likely to depict noticeable moves wherein EURUSD is expected to revisit 1.0400 – 1.0390 support-zone while GBPUSD’s failure to surpass 1.2400 can keep dragging it towards 1.2240 and the 1.2200 supports. Further, short-term ascending trend-line support, at 1.6995 becomes important for GBPAUD, breaking which chances of its drop to 1.6930 and 1.6870 become imminent.

Have a nice trading-day …………

692

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – January – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

As expected, the first full trading-day, when all major markets were open, provided much needed volatility to traders’ fraternity and that too in favor of already rising US Dollar. The greenback index (I.USDX) managed to test highest levels since December 2002 as US ISM Manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace in two years, Final Services PMI advanced and Construction Spending also remained strong. The EUR and the GBP started the day in positive territory when German figures strengthened and the UK Manufacturing PMI flashed upbeat figure but those gains faded after optimistic US numbers welcomed western market-open with heavy USD strength. Further, Australian Dollar could remain strong on early-day Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI while NZD and CAD had to bear the burden of weaker Crude prices that dropped from 18-month high on concerns that latest production-cuts might not be able to balance global supply-glut. Additionally, JPY continued on its south-run while Gold prices flaunted recent strength.

Wednesday becomes another busy-day for global traders as scheduled release of US FOMC minutes and UK Construction PMI, coupled with EU Flash CPI & Final Services PMI, would provide important information to forecasters. During the start of the day, the US Dollar retraced back from its latest high while Gold, Crude, EUR, GBP and commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, signaled some recovery.

Looking at the scheduled details, EU & UK figures may again please EUR & GBP traders respectively during early-day sessions while US open is likely to be governed by speculations concerning FOMC minutes. It is well-known fact that the Fed raised its benchmark rate in December 2016 and details relating to the same would convey how policymakers could come to forecasting three such hikes during 2017. However, FOMC members didn’t actually bolster their economic expectations, which should be the case, and hence analysts would dig reports to know any chances of USD pullback.

Given the FOMC minutes fail to please greenback Bulls, by either not providing full details on the case of rate-hike forecasts or being slightly neutral when discussing nation’s economics, the US Dollar is more likely to witness correction for the day. Though, overall upside trend is less likely to be affected as optimism from Trump presidency and recently announced Fed rate-lift isn’t faded yet.

[B]From Technical Desk[/B]

Technically, USDJPY’s another reversal from 118.60-70 region may trigger the pair’s U-turn if FOMC minutes fail to please greenback buyers while AUDUSD’s break above 0.7265 enables it to aim for 0.7330-35 resistance-levels. Further, GBPJPY again aims to conquer with 145.50, breaking which can help the quote to flash 146.20 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day …………

693

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 05 – January – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

Most of the US Dollar Bulls favoring extended upside by the greenback after FOMC minutes remained disappointed as details of December Fed meeting emphasized more on the negative impacts of expected fiscal stimulus by Donald Trump. Policymakers were more worried about the upside risk to the inflation and suggested gradual rate-hikes to ward-off such threats. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) stepped further down from its recently flashed 14-year high while the EUR got counter strength, which together with highest Flash CPI since 2013 favored the regional currency’s north-run. Further, the GBP also registered its first positive closing in 2017 with 10-month high Construction PMI and the JPY, together with Gold, accelerated recent advances as sudden worries of inflation helped such safe-havens. Additionally, the USD weakness was aptly enjoyed by AUD, NZD and CAD but Crude prices couldn’t stretch up-moves as traders doubted on Non-OPEC members’ commitment to oil production cut and rest other’s capacity to shake global supply-glut.

During early Thursday, investors maintained their previous bias against US Dollar and dragged the currency further towards south while 17-month high China’s Caixin Services PMI provided additional strength to the AUD, NZD and CAD prices. Moving forwards, UK’s Services PMI becomes crucial for GBP traders where as US ADP, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Crude Oil inventories can provide important signals to traders.

Although forecasts concerning UK Services PMI favor brighter chances of GBP’s pullback, latest PMI releases indicate another strong print by such an important detail. For US, both the scheduled numbers are in favor of further declines of the greenback and only strong prints can save the global reserve currency. Furthermore, Crude stockpiles may again raise the case of drop and rejuvenate energy prices for fresh north-run; though, a successive dip could strengthen chances of Crude’s decline.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Considering scheduled economic data-points, the EURGBP is less likely to break 0.8575-80 horizontal-resistance and better UK Services print can quickly fetch the quote to sub-0.8500 region whereas surprise upswing in US details can drag the NZDUSD further away from its 0.7030 resistance towards 0.6970 & 0.6940. Further, Crude inventories may provide additional strength to the descending trend-line indicated downturn of the AUDCAD towards 0.9655 and 0.9600 round figure.

Have a nice trading-day …………

694

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – January – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

All the optimism for US economy and the USD went into vein ever since the FOMC mintues threatened investor’s fraternity about Trump’s fiscal policy’s side-effects. The greenback dropped for second-day on Thursday after ADP, an early signal for today’s NFP, lagged behind expectations and defeated upbeat ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & nine-week low Jobless Claims. The EUR remained strong with positive Retail PMI & PPI while GBP extended its north-run on the back of optimistic Services PMI. Further, AUD and NZD enjoyed Chinese Yuan’s rise while CAD kept stretching its advances on Crude prices which rallied with unexpected drop in US stockpiles. Additionally, China’s recent actions to safeguard its national currency ahead of Lunar New-Year and Donal Trump’s presidency gave rise to safe-havens and commodity that could be well witnessed in JPY and Gold price advances.

As we come to the NFP-day, traders are less likely to concentrate more on any other details than to US Jobs report. However, German Factory Orders and Canadian Ivey PMI, followed by US Factory Orders, could provide additional moves. During the early-day trading, the US Dollar started showing its strength as yesterday’s Jobless Claims showed that such filings have remained below 300,000 for 96 consecutive weeks, the longest dip since 1970. The same greenback strength could be seen in commodity price dip that affected commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD. However, Australian Dollar managed to extend its upside on the back of first trade surplus in almost three years.

If we take a look at previous readings relating to US employment, the NFP is expected to ptso a bit soft figure of 175K against 178K prior while Unemployment rate is also likely inched-up to 4.7% from 4.6% previous. Further, Average Earnings may not disappoint USD traders as it is likely to increase by 0.3% against prior contraction of -1.0%. Even with a bit weaker NFP, the US Dollar is less likely to witness more downside, except being too harsh, as the print would confirm consecutive sixth-year of adding more than 2 million jobs. However, with this chances of the reversal or a bit disappointed print also rises and may hurt the greenback in longer-term, which together with considerably dangerous Fiscal policy, could force Fed to take more actions to safeguard global reserve-currency.

[B]Technical Desk[/B]

With the US Jobs report less likely to trim some of the USD’s recent losses, USDCAD’s reversal from 1.3190 may help the pair to revisit 1.3350-55 region whereas EURUSD’s inability to surpass 1.0600 could also fetch the quote towards 1.0480 on good news from US calendar. Additionally, EURAUD is rising towards a break of 1.4460-65 horizontal-resistance which could flash 1.4510 and 1.4545 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day …………

695

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 09 – January – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

The first full-week of 2017 couldn’t recall US Dollar Bulls and the resultant moves portrayed second consecutive weekly loss by the greenback gauge. The EUR and commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, stretched their previous recovery while GBP and JPY failed to gain buyers’ favor. However, traders’ fraternity started the second week of fresh year, comprising fewer economics, with US Dollar being their favorite and reversing earlier support for some other currencies. Let’s quickly analyze what went wrong with greenback and what’s coming up.

[B]FOMC Minutes And Mixed Job Report Kept Disappointing USD Bulls[/B]

Global markets took a turn on Wednesday when FOMC minutes signaled Trump policy may endanger US inflation outlook and some Bears governed greenback moves to the extent that Friday’s upbeat Earnings failed to push the US currency to a positive weekly close. EUR witnessed good news in the form of positive readings of Final Manufacturing & Services PMIs and optimistic Flash CPI while China’s move to help their domestic currency ahead of Lunar New-Year and Trump Presidency arrival, coupled with positive data-points, gifted strength to AUD, NZD and CAD. Further, the GBP couldn’t enjoy positive prints of headline PMIs while JPY remained sluggish as investors ran towards risky assets and showed less intention to own safe-havens. Though, Gold prices tested four-week highs on weaker USD and start of the year buying season whereas Crude ticked down from the top on traders’ concern that global supply-cut agreement loopholes may outweigh its benefits.

[B]A Little Light Economic Calendar Ahead[/B]

Unlike previous week, when slew of headline data-points offered active trading, the present week has fewer details to trigger big moves. However, headline consumer-centric numbers, namely Retail Sales from AU Switzerland and US, together with US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, are likely to keep pleasing investors with intermediate trading opportunities. Additionally, Chinese Inflation figures UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production, in addition to Trade Balance figures from UK & China, are likely second-tier prints to be observed.

Looking at the recent US Dollar profit-booking, Friday’s US data-points are crucial for the greenback traders. While forecasts concerning details indicate fewer chances of the present USD dip to remain for long, an unexpected decline in those readings may provide additional weakness on the part of the US Dollar. Moving on, there isn’t anything big on the part of the EU but on-going speculation relating to March’s Article 50 discussion between EU & UK can keep providing noticeable signals for regional currency where as upbeat figures of UK Production & Trade Balance may help GBP to trim some of its losses. Further, China has been on the receiving-zone and one more week of good economics can provide additional help to the AUD, NZD and CAD but soft AU Retail Sales could restrict Aussie gains.

To sum up, markets are likely to carry their previous pullback moves forward due to less economics but upbeat US data-points, which are more likely, can help greenback emerge from its latest downturn.

[B]Technical Talk[/B]

Technically, the EURUSD is less likely to extend its recovery beyond 1.0650-70 area and may revisit sub-1.0400 zone while GBPUSD’s break of 1.2200 again signals 1.2000 and the 1.1800 to come-up on the chart. Further, 118.70-80 can keep being decisive for the USDJPY traders with 114.70 offering strong support whereas AUDUSD’s failure to surpass 0.7370 might drag the Aussie again towards 0.7200 area. At the end, 200-day SMA figure of 0.7080 becomes strong resistance for NZDUSD traders to watch while USDCAD is less likely to dip below 1.3150. For Gold and Crude, both of them are expected to maintain their recent recovery mode but US Dollar hike and Iran’s expanded production can curb their extreme upsides.

Have a nice trading-day …………

696

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10 – January – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

At the start of 2017’s second-week, bout of risk aversion ruled Forex market moves as UK PM’s comments on Sunday threatened GBP traders with chances of hard Brexit that can force Britain to lose its single market access of EU. The same dragged the Pound to nearly 10-week lows while mixed statements from FOMC members, concerning the need for rapid rate-hikes, further strengthened safe-havens like JPY and Gold. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) extended its recent downside while EUR remained strong with positive data-points like Sentix Investor Confidence and German Trade Balance. Further, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD remained firm with Chinese optimism but Crude had to bear the shock as rising Rig counts at US and Canada continue favoring those who expect higher supply-glut going forward.

Moving on, Tuesday again becomes a good-day for commodity traders as Chinese PPI rallied to the five-year high early in the morning while CPI remained soft. Additionally, JPY extended its north-run as Japanese markets open after a holiday on Monday and the Gold prices remained strong with renewed uncertainty about Fed rate-hike and UK’s futures kept favoring risk-free assets. Furthermore, soft AU Retail Sales couldn’t hurt Aussie but and the stagnant Swiss Unemployment at 3.3% helped CHF to continue rising.

For the rest of the day, Canadian housing figures and US JOLTS Job Openings are likely second-tier data-points to entertain traders while informal comments from FOMC members and UK policymakers can keep providing intermediate market moves.

[B]Technical Speaks[/B]

With the recent fears for GBP, the GBPJPY’s dip below 200-day SMA can keep indicating its further downside to 139.00 with 141.70 and 142.60 being nearby resistances. Moving on, AUDUSD is moving towards 0.7415 & 0.7430 resistances but a dip below 0.7350 can flash 0.7310 on the chart while 114.80 continue being strong support for the USDJPY, breaking which it can quickly test 114.10 with sustained trading above 116.20 reigniting chances of its 117.00 visit.

Have a nice trading-day …………

698

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 12 – January – 2017[/B]

Hello Traders,

All those who were eagerly waiting for US President-elect, Donald Trump, to provide specifics of tax cuts and infrastructure spending during his first press conference after being elected left disappointed on Wednesday as Mr. Trump failed to provide any such details. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) dipped further towards south but absence of any negative comments on Chinese exports from him provided relief to Asian currencies. On the contrary, BoE Governor, who appeared in front of lawmakers from Parliament’s Treasury Committee in London, pleased GBP traders by signaling chances of further optimistic outlook of the British economy and raising the countercyclical capital buffer for U.K. exposures on sustained economic improvement, which in-turn fueled the Pound towards another positive daily closing which was earlier trading near October lows. Further, the JPY and Gold prices enjoyed greenback’s disappointment with noticeable upside while EUR also strengthened against majority of its counterparts. Additionally, AUD, NZD and CAD traders were also pleased with commodity prices advances while Crude had to plunge as US stockpiles unexpected rallied.

Moving forward, early-day release of New-Zealand’s ANZ Commodity Prices flashed soft figure while Japan’s Economy Watchers Sentiment printed its first above 50 mark since August 2015. On the other hand, the London Metal Exchange witnessed another trading halt due to system issues in less than six weeks and threatened commodity traders.

For the rest of the day, EU Industrial Production, US Jobless Claims and few appearances by FOMC members can keep providing clues to investors. However, one thing has been sure after latest FOMC minutes that the US Dollar is less likely to maintain its surge except there are strong signals from Trump administration relating to proposed fiscal and tax structure. Hence, it would be better to stay a bit away from USD longs at-least for the day as there aren’t any strong releases but tomorrow’s consumer-centric figures may help greenback recover some of its losses as December has always been a good month for consumers.

[B]Technical Talks[/B]

With break of eight-month old ascending trend-line, the USDCAD becomes more likely to revisit 1.3095 & 1.3080 supports while EURAUD & GBPCAD are expected to challenge 1.4290 and 1.6150 respective resistances provided their extended pullback beyond 1.4235 and 1.6095 in the same order.

Have a nice trading-day …………