Daily Fundamental Dose

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 14 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

In addition to pre-existing political turmoil, due to heated arguments between US & North Korean leaders, smaller than expected rise in US inflation gauge raised doubts on the Fed’s capacity to announce another rate-hike and dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) again towards south on a weekly basis. The EUR remained benefitted due to the same but the GBP had to decline after widening trade deficit and slow manufacturing production growth signaled weakness of the British economy. The commodity basket also got a hit on soft Chinese inflation numbers and worries about rising Crude output from Libya and US. As a result, the AUD, NZD and CAD declined across the board with downbeat economics and dovish RBNZ provided additional selling pressure. On the contrary, the JPY and Gold, together with CHF, known to be safe-havens, rallied considerably due to the macro Geo-political tensions.

Having received some serious warnings from US President to North Korea, global investors were weighing chances of a war between two nations. However, US Central Intelligence Agency Director, Mike Pompeo, and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, commented in separate public appearances that there is no formal signals for the same and helped receding such fears. With this, market players started recovering their USD losses and cut some of the JPY longs, which also affected the Gold.

Early today, Japan’s Q2 GDP surpassed estimates but couldn’t help the JPY whereas drop in China’s Industrial Production and Retail Sales further weakened the commodity currencies. Crude prices, which declined for two consecutive weeks, stretched south-run with soft Chinese data-points indicating lesser energy demand and ignored upbeat IEA report forecasting higher oil demand in 2017.

For the rest of the day, EU Industrial Production is the only thing that is scheduled for publish while political updates from US & North Korea can keep entertaining short-term traders. The EU Industrial Production is expected to trigger EUR’s pullback and can help the USD but tensions ahead of the North Korean Liberation Day on Tuesday may curb greenback’s gains.

Technical Talk

EURUSD’s inability to surpass 1.1830 signal brighter chances of its pullback to 1.1760 if EU details match consensus while 1.1910 seem nearby resistance to watch in otherwise case. Moving on, USDJPY is again heading to confront the short-term descending trend-line resistance, at 110.00 now, breaking which 110.60 can appear on the chart while 109.30 & 108.70 may offer adjacent supports to the pair. Additionally, the CADJPY may find it hard to extend its latest recovery beyond 86.65-80 region, comprising three-week old descending trend-channel resistance, followed by the horizontal-line, and can revisit 86.00 support.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 16 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

With US Retail Sales rallying the most in 2017 and North Korean media reporting that the leader, Kim Jong Un, has postponed plans to strike US territory of Guam, global investors shifted their attention from Geo-political crisis to upbeat US economics. As a result, greenback skeptics again started weighing chances of strong Q2 growth figure and another rate-hike by the Federal Reserve, which in-turn helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to accelerate its Monday rise during Tuesday. On the other hand, soft German GDP and USD’s strength dragged the EUR towards south whereas GBP dropped heavily on weaker than expected inflation figure and not-so-progressive Brexit talks. Further, safe-havens, namely Gold, JPY & CHF, were badly hit on traders’ move off from risk-safety after news portrayed receding tensions between US & North Korea. Additionally, AUD, NZD and CAD had to bend down in front of the US Dollar as strong greenback hurt commodity basket but the Crude prices managed to register positive daily closing on heavier than expected depletion in API inventory figures.

At the start of Wednesday, Australian wage growth remained below 0.6% prior but couldn’t drag AUD further towards south as overall commodity front witnessed a pullback recovery during early sessions. The US Dollar also remained a bit shy of its previous two-day up-moves while Gold, JPY and CHF recovered some of their recent losses ahead of the crucial day comprising EU Flash GDP, UK jobs report and US FOMC minutes. Further, the EUR and GBP also take a halt from latest downturn.

Looking towards the scheduled details/events, UK Claimant Count Change might portray upbeat employment scenario with lesser print while Average Earnings & Unemployment are likely to remain unchanged. Further, the EU GDP might also remain intact at 0.6% and the US Housing market number could register mixed outcome with official Crude inventories expected to please energy bulls. Moreover, New Zealand PPI may trigger the NZD’s pullback whereas USD moves are dependent on FOMC minutes wherein investors would analyze any hints of rate-hike and balance-sheet debt cut in September.

Considering latest revival in trade-sentiments favoring the US Dollar, upbeat statements from FOMC minutes, which some of the Fed members have lately been flagging, could help the greenback to extend its north-run while an otherwise case may be more harmful for the USD optimists. In case of the GBP, employment details could help the Pound to gain a bit but overall pessimism concerning Brexit may damage the Cable. Furthermore, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, can have good reasons to recover their losses if Crude inventories decline more whereas EUR may regain its strength if GDP figures post good number and greenback becomes the victim of dovish FOMC Minutes and/or soft data-points.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD struggles around 100-day SMA level of 1.2860 in order to test 1.2800 support with 1.2890 & 1.2930 being immediate resistances to watch while AUDUSD could find it hard to break the 0.7800–0.7795 TL support-zone and may take a U-turn towards 0.7860 and the 0.7900 north-side numbers. Further, EURAUD is also near to short-term upward slanting trend-line support of 1.4955, breaking which 1.4930 & 1.4820 can come-back on the chart but a pullback may please buyers with 1.5050 & 1.5075-80 resistances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

Although war-like dialogues between US & North Korea, coupled with soft inflation number from US, dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) again towards south during last-week, receding tensions and an improvement in US data-points helped the greenback to recover some of its losses at the start of present week. However, Wednesday’s FOMC minutes proved to be a drag on the USD and with only few details/events on hand markets may offer less active sessions going forward. Let’s discuss some important fundamentals.

Strong Economic Calendar Rejuvenated Trade-Optimism

While tough words from US & North Korea kept threatening investors off-late, an early week release of Korean media saying that the leader, Kim Jong Un, has postponed plans to strike US territory of Guam, coupled with comments from US officials taming chances of an immediate war with the peninsula, offered some rest to market players. In addition to the healing Geo-political tension, highest level of US Retail Sales in 2017, together with Empire State Manufacturing rising the most since September 2014, helped the USD to regain its strength. Though, FOMC minutes again triggered the greenback’s pullback as the monetary policy members were bifurcated over the central-bank’s next move and the declining inflation but remained firm to expect a reduction in their portfolio of bond-purchases.

Other than US, Chinese Industrial Production & Retail Sales disappointed commodity traders while UK’s soft CPI weighed down chances of a rate-hike from the BoE. However, the economic calendar flashed upbeat figures on Wednesday with British employment details being on top, followed by unchanged EU GDP, but the US housing market numbers proved to be spoiler. In case of the commodity currencies, early-week disappointment couldn’t last long after Wednesday’s Crude stockpile and optimism at China helped the AUD, NZD and CAD.

Hence, with an expected halt in political turmoil between US & North Korea, coupled with higher earnings report from major US firms, upbeat headline data-points rejuvenated the trade-optimism during early-week.

Small Line Of US & Canadian Details Are Left To Entertain Investors

Having witnessed some of the headline data-points till Wednesday, Thursday started with strong Employment Change number from Australia and better than expected UK Retail Sales, which both helped AUD & GBP respectively.

For the rest of the week, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production & Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment are likely important data-points, in addition to the Canadian Manufacturing Sales and CPI, that can entertain investors going forward.

Let’s first talk about Thursday’s US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production & Canadian Manufacturing Sales. While Philly Fed Manufacturing Index could flash 18.4 mark from 19.5 last-month reading and the Industrial Production is also expected to register soft growth figure of 0.3% against 0.4% prior, the Canadian Manufacturing Sales may result into weaker Loonie with -1.0% drops versus +1.1% earlier. Moving on, Friday Canadian CPI, with its expected 0.0% mark compared to -0.1% earlier, can entertain investors before US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment end the week with the smile on USD Bulls by registering 94.1 figure compared to 93.4 earlier. Additionally, Thursday’s ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes could also become important for EUR traders as upbeat monetary policy meeting, which mentioned that the central bank stands ready to discuss dialing back of their stimulus in autumn meet, may have some good things that can propel EUR further towards north.

Considering the mixed release from US and negative expectations from Canadian data-points, the USD and CAD might have to take the loss. Though, upbeat ECB meeting minutes and strong commodity basket can help EUR and commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD & CAD.

In case of politics, any news concerning fresh rift between US and Russia/North Korea/China may give rise to increased buying on the part of the JPY and Gold with the same or more downside of the USD.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD respects the short-term descending TL resistance, at 1.1790 now, and may revisit 1.1670 and the 1.1620-15 supports while an upside break of 1.1790 can register 1.1850 and the 1.1920 on the chart. GBPUSD keep struggling with five-month old ascending trend-line & 100-day SMA support region of 1.2865-60, breaking which 1.2755 can comeback with 1.2930 & 1.3000 being nearby resistances to watch. Further, USDJPY may re-test 109.00 but not below that while 111.000 and the 111.30-40 could keep limiting the pair’s upside. Additionally, USDCAD failed to sustain 1.2770 break and indicates 1.2560 re-test while AUDUSD couldn’t clear 0.7960 and signals 0.7840 support to reappear. Furthermore, NZDUSD still fails to surpass 50-day SMA level of 0.7325 on a daily closing basis and may revisit 0.7220 support.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 18 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

Thursday’s US Jobless Claims flashed another sign of strong labor market by declining to the lowest levels since February and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index registered better than forecast number. As a result the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) managed to post a daily positive closing for the third time in present week. However, US President’s anti-racism comments on Virginia’s weekend violence, followed by his act of disbanding two top-notch business advisory councils, gave rise to speculations that Trump administration may not be able to deliver its promises as being repeatedly surrounded by too many problems. Further, the terrorist attack in Barcelona added to the demand of risk-safety that favored safe-havens like JPY, Gold and CHF.

On the other hand, EUR had to bear the burden of not so strong ECB monetary policy meeting minutes whereas GBP dropped even after witnessing better than expected Retail Sales due to downwardly revised prior. Additionally, Crude prices and the commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, also dropped after investors cut early-day longs considering political turmoil in US & EU.

During early Friday, the pre-established political drawbacks kept favoring the safe-havens and hurt the USD which then helped the AUD, NZD and CAD. Also, the Crude prices started witnessing some buying after the quote reversed from 50-day SMA support. Moving on, the early-day release of German PPI supported the EUR to recover its latest losses while GBP remained a bit stronger as market-players weighed up chances of the BoE’s rate-hike after better Employment and Retail Sales stats.

For the rest of the day, Canadian CPI and US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment might offer intermediate moves to traders who are now struggling to have a secure sessions amid renewed political turmoil. The Canadian CPI may help CAD to stretch its latest recovery while US consumer sentiment could help the greenback to register weekly gains.

On the political stance, news concerning the US & North Korea rift, coupled with US business tycoons’ reaction to President’s behavior and the situation at Barcelona, might offer meaningful information to determine near-term trade direction.

Technical Talk

With its inability to stretch latest advances beyond 1.2675-80, the USDCAD again aims to re-test 1.2590 while 1.2775-80 seems acting as follow-on resistance if the pair surpasses 1.2680. Further, NZDUSD’s repeated failures to provide daily closing beyond 50-day SMA level of 0.7325 may give rise to the pair’s pullback towards 0.7270 & 0.7230-25 whereas EURCAD’s break of 1.4830 can again fetch it to 1.4790 and the 1.4740 trend-line support with 1.4880 being adjacent resistance.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even if Monday’s disappointing Industrial Production from China triggered the pullback in commodity basket & currencies like AUD, NZD & CAD, receding Geo-political tensions between US & North Korea, coupled with upbeat economics from US helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to confront with a bit dovish FOMC minutes and register weekly positive closing. The GBP, on the hand, had to decline on soft CPI even after registering better Retail Sales & Jobs numbers, whereas EUR couldn’t stretch its north-run due to absence of major details/events. Further, the JPY and Gold also dropped as investors’ run towards risk-safety took a halt on optimism concerning US economic growth driven by better stats. However, the AUD, NZD and CAD refrained to bend down against the greenback on positive economic data-points and could ignore soft Crude prices.

While everything on the financial market was trading fluently and in favor of the USD optimists, Friday offered unexpected moves on the news that controversial US White House chief strategist, Stephen Bannon, was fired from his position together with a quit by a billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn. As a result, the US Dollar had to trim some of its early gains and the Crude witnessed support on declining Rig counts; though, few among the investor fraternity termed this as a positive result for Trump administration as Bannon wasn’t highly acceptable in Republican lobby.

Moving towards start of present week, early-Monday moves were largely governed by pullback in Crude prices, which in-turn dragged the commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, towards south whereas JPY and Gold recovered some of their latest losses as US & South Korea starts joint military drill that might push North Korea to flaunt its missile-tests again. On the economic side, Japanese All Industries Activity lagged behind 0.5% survey but remained well above -0.8% prior by flashing 0.4% mark.

Having witnessed rejuvenated political turmoil concerning in and around US, global market players are again running towards safe-havens and with less economics left for publish during the rest of the day, chances of the JPY & Gold’s further advances can’t be denied. Additionally, the Canadian Wholesale Sales may magnify the recent CAD weakness, mainly based on soft Crude prices, if the sales figure matches downbeat forecast.

Technical Talk

While EURUSD’s repeated failures to clear 1.1780-85 resistance signal brighter chances of its pullback to 1.1610-15 support, an upward slanting TL, at 1.1720 now, may keep favoring the pair’s upside. Further, USDCHF seems sustaining its 50-day SMA breakout and indicates further advances to 0.9700 round-figure with 0.9645 SMA figure acting as adjacent support. Moreover, EURCHF struggles to extend its bounce from 1.1260-55 horizontal-line with 1.1300 being immediate rest while 1.1380-85 horizontal-line could limit its nearby advances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 22 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

As rift with North Korea and frequent changes in administration wasn’t enough for Mr. Trump, needless to mention about his team’s alleged relation with Russia to intervene in 2016 Presidential election, he took a step forward on Monday to add one more factor, in the name of increased & open-ended use of military forces at Afghanistan, to make traders busy. US President, Donald Trump, yesterday announced open-ended strategy to engage more rigorously in Afghanistan to tame terrorist activities into the nation. Additionally, start of 10-day long joint military drills by the South Korea & US was termed as “reckless” effort by “war maniacs” from North Korean desk. As a result, doubts over the Republican leader’s capacity to deliver his promises concerning pro-growth policies grew stronger and lately diminished geo-political crisis re-emerged to fore front that dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) again towards south and helped the safe havens, like Gold and JPY, to extend their north-run.

In case of the EUR, the regional currency managed to enjoy greenback’s south-run even on the dull-day with no major economics while GBP flashed mixed signals as UK policymakers stand ready to put many papers in order to proceed on Brexit negotiations with EU. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD benefitted from a rise in commodity prices, mainly due to weak USD & expectations of higher demand from China, whereas Crude couldn’t sustain its Friday profits and dropped heavily.

Looking at the Tuesday’s economic calendar, ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for EU & Germany, followed by Canadian Retail Sales, might entertain short-term traders. However, overall market sentiments are likely to be governed by Geo-political tensions emanating from US and investors’ wait & watch approach before the Jackson Hole Symposium.

While ZEW figures aren’t expected to support the EUR in stretching its pre-established advances, soft Canadian Retail Sales can offer a drag in CAD’s up-moves. However, early-day recovery in Crude prices, coupled with expected improvement in Core Retail Sales from Canada, might favor the Loonie to remain strong. Moreover, JPY and Gold are expected to maintain their strengths considering present geo-political pressures whereas commodity basket could trim some of its gains depending upon the USD direction.

Hence, with increased Geo-political worries, safe havens are likely to remain strong for a bit longer, atleast till Friday when US Fed Chair and ECB President is expected to speak at Jackson Hole. Though, intermediate good news from US, in the form of better housing market details on Wednesday and Thursday, may help the greenback recover its losses.

Technical Talk

While USDCAD’s latest pullback from 1.2550 may help it re-visit 1.2600 round-figure, the 1.2480 & 1.2410 seem strong supports for the pair on downside. Moving on, GBPUSD also drops towards 1.2830 rest-point, breaking which 1.2800 and the 1.2760 can reappear on the chart whereas 1.2920 continue being strong resistance. At the end, CADCHF keep observing the short-term upward slanting trend-channel which indicates its up-moves to 0.7700 and the 0.7715 with 0.7625 and the 0.7600 acting as adjacent supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 23 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

While latest firings in Trump administration and US–South Korea military drills, coupled with Mr. Trump’s announcement to increase engagement in Afghanistan, pushed the US Dollar to register weaker start of the week, President’s comments at the Phoenix rally offered some relief to the greenback Bulls by flashing green marks on the Tuesday. Donald Trump, in his appearance at Phoenix based pro-trump supporters’ rally, said that he might let the government shut-down to build the Mexico border while also signaling readiness to end NAFTA. Additionally, Republican house speaker, Paul Ryan, conveyed his confidence towards delivering much promised tax reforms. As a result, market players perceived that Trump administration is finally looking more aggressive to make its promises come true even if range of political deadlocks and Geo-political problems continue to be present.

The EUR, on the other hand, had to decline with disappointing ZEW economic sentiment figures whereas GBP couldn’t enjoy a rise in CBI Industrial Order Expectations due to looming worries about Brexit discussion and BoE’s dovish stand. Further, Australian Dollar also weakened across the board with commodity pullback whereas NZD dropped as New Zealand’s pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) portrayed not so rosy picture of the economy. Moving on, JPY and Gold witnessed some profit-booking due to USD’s strength whereas CAD and Crude both failed to signify noticeable moves on soft Canadian Retail Sales and API Gasoline inventory figures.

Turning to Wednesday, from when the economic calendar is likely to take the front-seat with some important data-points/events, markets remained active since the start of the week with Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI’s upbeat outcome. However, USD couldn’t sustain its previous gains as traders remained worries ahead of three-day long Jackson Hole gathering by global central-bankers that starts from Thursday. The commodity basket kept being disturbed without any major economics whereas JPY and Gold recovered some of their latest losses.

For the rest of the day, Flash reading of EU & German Manufacturing & Services PMIs, US New Home Sales and Crude inventories may entertain short-term traders while speech by ECB President Mario Draghi, at Germany, could trigger noticeable EUR moves. On the top of all these events, US have recently announced additional sanctions on China and Russia claiming they are helping North Korea secretly, which in-turn could give rise to another round of safe-haven rally in the market.

While PMIs from EU & Germany are less likely to impress Euro buyers, a bit hawkish tone of the ECB President can please them and hurt the USD. Moreover, US housing market details may keep depicting strength of world’s largest economy but the overall Geo-political problems and market fear ahead of Jackson Hole can restrict the greenback’s gains.

Technical Talk

NZDUSD’s latest break of 0.7220 can fetch the quote to 0.7190 and then to the 50-day SMA level of 0.7165 but an upside clearance of 0.7280 may again help it aim 0.7300 and the 0.7335-40 resistance-zone. In case of the USDJPY, the pair failed to clear 109.80 resistance, which could support its recovery towards 110.40, and is witnessing pullback towards 109.00 and the 108.60 supports. For EURNZD traders, near-term ascending trend-channel resistance of 1.6320 seem crucial, breaking which 1.6370 can appear on the chart while 1.6150 and the 1.6040 can offer immediate supports to the pair.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even if absence of tough statements from US & North Korea, coupled with upbeat data-points from world’s largest economy, helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to flash weekly positive closing, the early-week firing of White House chief strategist, Stephen Bannon, and a quit by billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn triggered another round of the greenback’s downturn. This followed by the President’s comments at the Phoenix rally, concerning readiness to let the government shut down to support Mexico border and exiting NAFTA, together with the joint military drills by US & South Korea, which provided additional weakness to the USD. Also, soft figures of New Home Sales and Manufacturing PMI kept pleasing US Dollar Bears ahead of the three-day long crucial Jackson Hole Symposium starting from Thursday. Hence, with political and economical forces at US determining market moves ahead of global central bankers’ meet, chances of investors to focus on developments in the world’s largest economy are much higher. Let us understand the fundamentals.

The Upbeat Last Week

As US Dollar managed to flash upbeat week due to aforementioned reasons, dearth of major economics curbed the up-moves of EUR and disappointing CPI couldn’t allow the GBP to enjoy upbeat Retail Sales and Employment details. In case of the commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, welcome data-points helped them stretch pre-established advances but the Crude plunged with higher US production and worries about lesser Chinese demand, as indicated by disappointing Industrial Production release. Further, Gold and JPY also trimmed some of their gains as silence on Geo-political front pushed them towards high-return bearing opportunities.

Rejuvenated Political Worried And USD’s Decline

Having witnessed positive weekly closing, the start of current week didn’t allow the greenback to sustain its earlier optimisms as exit of some of the influential Trump administrators resulted into rejuvenated political pressure on the US currency. The moves then observed Trump’s comments at Phoenix rally and North Korea’s reaction to US – South Korea military drills, in addition to weaker economics, as red signals and dragged the greenback further towards south.

On the contrary, EU & German PMIs helped the EUR to recover strongly from its last-week’s downticks while absence of any policy clues by ECB President, in his appearance at Germany, pushed speculators to believe that Mr. Draghi will avail his favorite destination, Jackson Hole, to communicate strength of the regional economy and expected hawkish policy measures. The GBP kept declining without any major economics as UK policymakers’ run to get a good Brexit deal couldn’t impress Pound buyers. Moving on, declines in US inventories and positive stats from Canada supported the CAD whereas the NZD had to take the loss after New Zealand’s pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) portrayed not so rosy picture of the economy. Furthermore, the AUD also dropped on soft commodity prices whereas JPY and Gold managed to extend their north-run with Geo-political worries again taking their front-seats.

Jackson Hole & Politics To Rule Market Moves

Coming back to Thursday, a day when Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled to begin with some of the second-tier central bankers’ appearance, early-day moves were governed by pullback in US Dollar while GBP seems taking a halt from its south-run before second estimate of Q2 2017 GDP. However, the greenback’s gains are doubtful ahead of the crucial Friday when Fed Chair and ECB President are set to communicate their policy expectations at Wyoming’s forum.

Let’s first talk about today’s Second estimate of Q2 2017 UK GDP. The growth figure is likely to maintain its 0.3% advance estimate and can please the cable buyers but absence of any strong achievements by the Theresa May’s Brexit team could continue hurting the Pound. Further, US Existing Home Sales is another data-set which can offer intermediate moves to USD before it stands ready to confront the Jackson Hole announcements. The housing market indicator is likely to increase to 5.55M versus 5.52M and can help the greenback.

Moving to Friday, early-day moves might be controlled by the Japanese inflation numbers and German IFO Business Climate Change Index. While Japanese National Core CPI and Tokyo CPI are both expected to keep pleasing JPY Bulls with +0.5% and 0.3% figures against +0.4% and +0.2% respective priors, a soft print of German IFO Business Climate Change may triggered a bit of profit-booking in the EUR. Additionally, US is also tied to release monthly Durable Goods Orders which is expected to register -5.7% decline versus +6.5% earlier rise. However, likely increase in Core Durable Goods Orders, to the tune of +0.4% from +0.2% prior, may help overcome such pessimism.

While all the aforementioned details/events can offer intermediate trade opportunities, comments by the US Fed Chair and ECB’s President at the Jackson Hole Symposium is one thing that is likely to have biggest influence over the market. The annual meet of central bankers have “Foster a Dynamic Global Economy” as its theme when influential central-bank policymakers may focus on their exit from easy monetary policies. The BoE leader has already conveyed his non-availability for this important gathering and the BoJ President hasn’t signaled anything relating to his presence, which in-turn inflates the importance of ECB & Fed leaders’ speech. The Fed Chair is scheduled to speak earlier then her ECB counterpart.

Looking at the US scenario, the Fed has already indicated its intention of moving closer to start cutting its $4.5 trillion debt but signals relating to another rate-hike and whether the recent Inflation weakness may persist or not can help forecast USD moves.

On the other hand, the ECB President Draghi is famous for using this stage to flaunt his bold moves as he did announce 2.3 trillion-euro bond-buying program three years back at the same place. The European Central Bank leader recently refrained from providing any hints relating to upcoming moves of the ECB, which in-turn pushed investors to remain skeptical about what his next move at Jackson Hole may be. However, EU economics have started helping the region to plan for quitting easy monetary policy and the central bank has already conveyed its intention to discuss the issue at autumn meeting that can assure additional strength of the EUR near the event.

To sum up, while rejuvenated Geo-political tensions at US, North Korea, Russia and China indicates USD’s weakness, any communication from the Fed that negates downside pressure on Inflation to remain for longer can help the USD to recover its losses. For the EUR, Draghi’s hawkish sentiment and readiness to signal end of easy monetary policy could provide reasons for the regional currency to extend its northward trajectory.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the EURUSD needs to clear 1.1850-55 and the 1.1910 on a daily closing basis in order to register a 1.2000 mark on the chart while break of 1.1615-10 may fetch the quote to 1.1480 re-test while recent break of 1.2830 indicates GBPUSD’s additional downside towards 1.2700 with 1.2955-60 continue acting as strong resistance region. Further, AUDUSD respected short-term descending TL resistance, at 0.7935, and is aiming 0.7840 whereas NZDUSD needs to provide a closing break of 0.7200 in order to meet 0.7165 and 0.7125 but 50-day SMA level of 0.7330 seems a tough-level for it. Additionally, USDCAD may use 1.2510 and the 1.2455 as rest-points with 1.2780 being important resistance while USDJPY has 108.10 as support and 110.00 as nearby resistance.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

It seems that the on and off pattern for the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) again played its role during last week when Fed Chair’s refrain to discuss any upcoming policy-moves at Jackson Hole Symposium disappointed greenback traders and dragged the USD gauge again towards south after posting a positive weekly closing in previous week. Additionally, Tropical Storm “Harvey”, the strongest since 2004, damaged U.S. oil refining centers and caused 2 deaths while early-week quit of some influential Republicans added weakness into the US currency. At the Geo-political front, North Korea test-fired three ballistic missiles over the weekend while hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President, Loretta Mester, couldn’t impress the Bulls.

On the other hand, the EUR managed to extend its PMI backed advances after ECB President, Mario Draghi, praised ultra-lose monetary policy and avoided talking down the recent strength of the regional currency. Further, the GBP remained mostly weak with less progress on Brexit talks whereas JPY and Gold kept being on buyers’ list due to their safe-haven demand. Moving on, the AUD and NZD couldn’t manage to shine with their own soft economic details but the CAD stretched its up-moves on upbeat Retail Sales while Crude refrained to erase early-week losses even after the Harvey-backed speculations helped energy prices to close the day on positive side on Friday.

Having witnessed volatile close to the last week, Monday has very few events to entertain global traders amidst UK holiday. However, the USD started recovering some of its last-week losses after Mr. Trump’s tweets to scrap NAFTA and build border-wall near Mexico revealed the administration’s readiness to deliver what they have promised. In case of the EUR, the regional currency kept being strong and trades around the highest level since January 2015 whereas JPY and Gold kept on being buyers’ favorite but the CAD and NZD witnessed pullback when the AUD is a bit up.

On the day when UK market is close and there are very few economics scheduled for publish, including US Goods Trade Balance, chances of witnessing dull-Monday are too high. However, renewed Geo-political triggered from North Korea, coupled with news of damages done by Harvey the storm, may offer intermediate trade opportunities to market players. Though, one shouldn’t forget that this week consists of US Jobs report and PMIs form UK & China which could help investors to witness magnified volatility going forward.

Technical Talk

AUDUSD again struggles with the 0.7950 horizontal-line, breaking which it can rise to 0.7990 & 0.8040 where a pullback may flash 0.7910 & 0.7880 on the chart. Further, the NZDUSD seems failing to sustain its bounce-off a 0.7200 horizontal-line and may revisit the same that holds the door for its south-run towards 0.7170 & 0.7140 while 0.7260 & 0.7285-90 are likely immediate resistances to watch. Moreover, EURJPY couldn’t clear 130.70-80 horizontal-line and indicates brighter chances of witnessing a pullback to 129.50 support.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 29 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

While Jackson Hole aftershocks, mainly influenced by Fed Chair’s inability to please USD buyers & ECB President’s statements offering extra strength to the EUR, kept marking their presence on Monday, UK holiday and lack of major economic curbed magnified market moves. As a result, greenback gauge (I.USDX) again declined and the EUR rose to the fresh high since January 2015. Further, the GBP remained mostly inactive but the JPY and Gold continued maintaining their strength whereas AUD and NZD benefited from a bit stronger commodity prices. The CAD, on the other hand, dropped with Crude prices continued bearing the burden of Havrvey the hurricane at US that disrupted supplies at Houston, Texas and U.S. Gulf Coast which seems pushing some other OPEC members to increase their production.

Unlike Monday, the Tuesday started with a bang when North Korea fired a missile that passed over northern Japan which propelled global tensions. With this, the Gold, JPY and CHF rallied sharply wherein the yellow metal flashed fresh high of the year and the CHF rose to July levels while JPY registered four-month high.

The Japanese PM reacted by calling an immediate meeting of UN Security Council between 15-members to increase pressure on Korean peninsula whereas global traders eagerly await what Mr.Trump says when US wakes up from the night’s sleep. The same helped Crude prices to recover some of its latest losses which were additionally helped by news of supply disruptions at Libya and Colombia. Additionally, USD remained on the downside while EUR surpassed yesterday’s high and the GBP also strengthened on the hope that UK policymakers may succeed in escalating Brexit talks with EU.

With the latest Geo-political taking the center-stage of market today, lack of economics may not confine trade sentiment which now favors safe-havens. However, monthly release of US CB Consumer Confidence Index could well activate bit of USD’s pullback if it defeats downbeat forecasts. Also, any emergency or a war-like action from UN could help the commodity basket so it seems wise to have AUD and NZD as longs while CAD is already trading too high and should be avoided for long unless having Crude at its support.

Technical Talk

EURUSD recently cleared the 1.2000 psychological magnet and is aiming to surpass the 1.2040 resistance-mark that in-turn could help the pair meet 1.2110 with 1.1940 & 1.1890 being nearby supports. Further, USDJPY again signals 108.00 re-test, breaking which 107.45-50 & 106.90 can appear on the chart but a close beyond 109.10 may activate its U-turn towards 110.00. Moving on, EURCAD confronts the 1.5010-20 horizontal-line and a break of which can help it challenge the 1.5120 and the 1.5200 resistance but 1.4900 and 1.4840-35 shouldn’t be ignored if the pair reverses from current levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 30 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even though North Korea’s missile launch over Japan grabbed attention of global traders and propelled safe havens during early-Tuesday, US President’s measured response to the act surprised risk-averse investors and helped the greenback to recover some of its previous losses. While Japan and South Korea remained too afraid of the North Korean missile-test, Mr. Trump only said that all options are under consideration and refrained from repeating his fire & fury like warnings to the Korean peninsula. On the other hand, the North Korean leader termed latest missile launch as a response to US-South Korea military drills, which in-turn signaled that the hermit kingdom might refrain to repeat such tests for some time. At the economic front, the official CB Consumer Confidence index of US rallied to five month high and added strength into the USD’s pullback. As a result, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX), which dropped heavily on the occurrence of missile-test over Japan, closed in the positive territory at the day-end.

In case of the EUR, the regional currency shed majority of its gains when the USD took a U-turn while JPY and Gold also reversed from considerably high levels. Further, GBP couldn’t sustain its early-session strength on fears of slow progress at Brexit talks whereas AUD and CAD remained weaker on daily basis due to commodity price pullback. Additionally, CAD had to bear the burden of weaker than forecast RMPI & IPPI numbers together with decline in Crude prices.

During early Wednesday, the Geo-political set-up again got the heat when Japan and South Korea discussed to increase the pressure on North Korea and Mr. Kim Jong-un said that the recent missile-test was a prelude to contain American territory of Guam but would observe US response first. However, the absence of US response gave some breathing space to the market and favored USD. Moving on, comments from RBNZ Governor, Graeme Wheeler, revealed his favor for weaker NZD before less than a month of his scheduled quit from such a high post and dragged the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) towards south. The Crude also witnessed early-day bounce ahead of the official release of US Inventory whereas EUR, GBP and JPY stretched their yesterday’s pullback.

While tensions emanating from North Korea can keep entertaining global investors, active economic list might shift some attention towards US economy wherein ADP Employment Change and Preliminary reading of Q2 2017 GDP is up for release. The ADP figure, an early signal for Friday’s NFP, may please the greenback buyers with 185K versus 178K prior and the GDP is also likely to increase the buying strength with 2.7% growth compared to 2.6% advance estimates.

Hence, with the economic platter again taking a lead, coupled with not so harsh response from US to North Korea, chances of USD to recover some of its latest losses are too high. However, it all depends upon how well the scheduled data-points manage to print the numbers and also on Trump’s ability to hold his temper.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD’s inability to surpass the 50-day SMA, coupled with expectedly upbeat US data-points, may drag the pair towards 1.2840 re-test but an upside break of 1.2980 can help it revisit the 1.3000 resistance-mark. Further, USDCHF also bounced-off a 0.9420 – 0.9400 broad support-zone and may challenge 0.9585 in order to meet 0.9630 while GBPAUD is resting around 1.6180-60 support-area, break of which can quickly fetch the quote to 1.6100, the 1.6020 and then to the 1.6000 round-figure while a pullback may please countertrend traders with 1.6270 & 1.6360 resistances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 31 – August – 2017

Hello Traders,

When early-week departure of top-tier Republicans from Trump administration triggered the USD’s sell-off, nobody knew that the week could end-up closing in red as majority of investors were optimistic about Jackson Hole Symposium. However, Fed Chair’s inability to provide any monetary policy signals, coupled with downbeat Durable Goods Orders and hurricane Harvey, dragged the greenback gauge (I.USDX) again towards south on a weekly basis.

During the start of present week, North Korea fired a missile over Japan and rejuvenated Geo-political tensions, but measured response from Trump and upbeat economics, like GDP and ADP figures, has been favoring the US Dollar to stay positive ahead of Friday’s crucial NFP. Let’s quickly analyze fundamentals.

Disappointment Dragged The USD While EUR Had Better Week

Contrast to the US Dollar, which suffered the loss due to sudden change in Trump administration, downbeat economic data-points and Fed Chair’s refrain to offer any monetary policy signals at Jackson Hole, the EUR managed to enjoy better week mainly because of upbeat PMIs and ECB President’s capacity to praise latest economic developments in the region and talking down strength of the EUR.

The GBP, however, couldn’t shine much with no change in its GDP figure and slow progress in Brexit developments while Gold and JPY remained strongly backed by safe-haven demand even if the BoJ President kept supporting loose monetary policy at global central bankers’ meet. Further, AUD portrayed sluggish moves due to absence of major event/details to observe but the NZD declined as New Zealand’s pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) forecast a bit softer economic numbers to appear while going forward. Additionally, Canadian Dollar (CAD) justifies upbeat data-points with strong gains but the Crude prices couldn’t respect weak inventory details and dropped for fourth consecutive week.

So Far A “Good” Week For The USD

Even if Harvey the hurricane caused considerable damages to the US economy, mainly to oil refineries, and the North Korea fired a missile over Japan, the US Dollar seems having a good week till now. The reason was, US President’s surprisingly measured response to the hermit kingdom’s unacceptable behavior and strong GDP and ADP figures.

On the other hand, the EUR couldn’t sustain its uptick beyond 1.2000 psychological magnet, activated due to expected harsh response from US on North Korea’s missile fire, whereas GBP witnessed some pullback ahead of Friday’s UK Manufacturing PMI. Moving on, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, couldn’t confront stronger USD while JPY and Gold also had to comeback from their considerably high levels. Moreover, Crude prices remained sluggish and are heading towards fifth consecutive weekly decline even after witnessing more than expected decline in US stockpiles as Harvey’s damage to Oil industry shifted demand forces towards Gasoline.

EU CPI, US Core PCE and NFP Are On Traders’ Watch-List

Having witnessed upbeat figures of US GDP and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, investors would closely observe Thursday’s Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of Inflation, followed by Friday’s Jobs report to determine near-term USD moves. On the other, upbeat result of China’s official PMI and a sluggish Japanese Industrial Production seems to have muted impact on early Thursday when the EU Flash CPI is also scheduled for release.

In addition to the aforementioned headline data-points, Thursday’s Canadian GDP, US Chicago PMI & Pending Home Sales, followed by Friday’s Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI, UK Manufacturing PMI & US ISM Manufacturing PMI might offer intermediate market moves.

While US Jobs report impressed greenback Bulls during its prior release, forecasts concerning this week’s announcement aren’t so optimistic. The NFP might register 180K mark, which is below 184K average for 2017 and 209K prior, while the Average Earnings are likely to revisit 0.2% growth figure by declining from 0.3% mark but the Unemployment Rate isn’t expected to change from 4.3%. Further, no change is forecasted in 0.1% Core PCE Price Index but Pending Home Sales could weaken by registering 0.6% growth from 1.5% prior. Additionally, Chicago PMI may offer intermediate strength to the US Dollar with 59.6 number against 58.9 marked in previous month whereas ISM Manufacturing PMI may join earlier PMI with 56.5 number against 56.3 prior.

Looking at the latest slew of upbeat US data-points, notably the CB Consumer Confidence, GDP and ADP, coupled with surprisingly calm attitude of US President on North Korean action, chances of the US Dollar to repeat the “on and off” pattern by posting a weekly gain are too high. However, Employment details and Core PCE might spoil the positive sentiment if flashing extreme negative outcomes.

Moving forward, EU Flash CPI may please the EUR Bulls, as the inflation gauge is expected to rise to 1.4% mark from 1.3%, which in-turn indicates brighter chances for the ECB’s autumn discussion on rate-hike to result in a positive announcement soon. In case of the UK Manufacturing PMI, the story is a bit different as the manufacturing gauge may remain almost unchanged with 55.00 figure versus 55.1 earlier result. Additionally, Caixin Manufacturing PMI might print 51.0 mark compared to 51.1 prior while Canadian GDP could keep hurting CAD with 0.1% growth versus 0.6% previous.

Although EU Flash CPI is likely to help the EUR, present mood at the trading desk isn’t favoring the logic as the regional currency has already rallied too much and is now on the pullback side. In case of the GBP, slow progress of Brexit developments and disappointed data-points can hurt the UK currency whereas commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, may have to bear the burden of stronger USD unless specific economics trigger individual currency’s up-moves.

Technical Analysis

While failure to sustain its rally beyond 1.2000 dragged EURUSD towards south, the pair is likely to witness additional downside towards 1.1830 and the 1.1740 with 1.2000 and the 1.2130 being important near-term resistances. Talking about GBPUSD, a daily close beyond 1.2970 is required for the pair to flash 1.3050 on the chart but a break of 1.2830 can fetch prices to 1.2770. Furthermore, USDJPY is heading towards 50-day & 100-day SMA confluence region of 111.15 with 109.50 & 108.30 being adjacent supports whereas USDCAD needs to surpass 50-day SMA level of 1.2710 in order to challenge 1.2780 without which it can revisit 1.2450-40 support-zone. Moreover, AUDUSD rests at immediate ascending trend-line support of 0.7880, breaking which it can test 50-day SMA level of 0.7830 and the 0.7780 supports while 0.8000 could continue limiting its upside. At the end, NZDUSD may find it hard to stretch its south-run below 200-day SMA level of 0.7130 and can bounce-back to 0.7300.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 01 – September – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even if upbeat GDP and ADP data-points, coupled with US President’s calm attitude to North Korea’s missile launch over Japan, helped the US Dollar to remain positive during early-week days, Thursday’s soft Core PCE Price Index and Spending numbers again dragged the greenback towards south. Also, comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, that mentioned weak USD is favorable, offered additional initiative to the sellers to portray a negative closing of the US Dollar Index (I.USDX).

The EUR, on the other hand, regained its strength on the back of better than forecast CPI whereas GBP remained weak with uncertainty surrounding Brexit and absence of major releases. Further, AUD recovered majority of it’s latest losses on due to strong official PMIs from China and CAD had additional support of GDP number which indicated another rate-hike from the BoC and propelled the Canadian currency but the NZD couldn’t please buyers with RBNZ Governor favoring weaker currency and no policy change. Additionally, JPY and Gold also took a U-turn towards north and the Crude prices finally managed to portray hurricane Harvey’s impact on energy prices after US government used is strategic oil reserves for the first time in five years.

Having witnessed majority of market-moves against the US currency on Thursday, investors are being cautious since the start of Friday as majority of them fears volatility around such an important announcement. However, a six month high release of China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI kept helping the AUD and the CAD but the JPY and Gold couldn’t sustain yesterday’s gains. Moving on, Crude prices also trimmed a bit of their latest weight gains while EUR and GBP witnessed pullback.

With the latest economics from US indicating benign price pressure and strong GDP and job numbers, traders would be happy even with a lesser than prior 209K. However, an extreme dip in NFP below the 184K yearly average, coupled with weaker Average Earnings, may disappoint those optimists expected Fed’s rate-hike. In addition to the US jobs report, UK Manufacturing PMI & US ISM Manufacturing PMI are some other stats that could offer intermediate trade opportunities. While UK Manufacturing PMI cold flash 55.00 number against 55.1 prior, the US reading may please the greenback buyers with 56.5 figure compared to 56.3 earlier.

At the Geo-political front, there hasn’t been any big issue discussed concerning North Korea, except from Japan and South Korea, while the US President again became active on twitter to push for his promises which the House of representative might not support. As a result, the safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold, may remain as buyers’ favorite.

Technical Talk

With the GBPUSD’s repeated failures to clear 1.2950-55 resistance-zone, chances of its pullback to 1.2830 can’t be denied; however an upside break of 1.2955 can propel the quote to 1.3010. Further, the USDCAD again indicates 1.2400 re-test with 1.2435 acting as intermediate halt and 1.2530 being nearby resistance whereas EURGBP keep respecting 0.9190 TL support and may revisit 0.9235 resistance.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 04 – September – 2017

Hello Traders,

Contrast to the general behavior of Mr.Trump, US President’s measured response to early-last week’s North Korean missile launch over Japan, coupled with some of the upbeat outcomes from second-tier readings and US GDP, helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to wipe out Jackson Hole disappointment. Additionally, Republican efforts to help US citizens confront hurricane Harvey with better amenities and absence of any political noise form US opposition parties also favored the greenback to avoid downbeat Jobs report.

In case of the EUR, the regional currency remained strong enough with welcome CPI figures while GBP couldn’t rise much even after registering four-month high Manufacturing PMI. Further, JPY and Gold kept being traders’ favorite while CHF and Aussie also got the risk-averse players’ acceptance off-late. Moreover, NZD couldn’t please buyers with RBNZ Governor favoring weaker currency and no policy change but the CAD managed to flash sustained gains on positive data-points and expected rate-hike from the BoC. At the end, Crude prices declined as majority of traders ran towards Gasoline after hurricane Harvey damaged majority of US Crude refineries.

As it wasn’t enough for North Korea to launch missile over Japan during last-week, the Korean peninsula surprised global markets on Sunday with its claim to have tested an advanced hydrogen bomb for a long-range missile. With this, global policymakers’ worry for North Korea’s increasing armor escalated while BRICS summit is already open in China that in-turn helped safe-haven assets to start the week with a gap-up opening.

In response to this nuclear threat from the hermit kingdom, US President tweeted to decide harsh sanctions and might cut ties with nations that are still in close contact with the North Korean economy. Further, US, Japan and South Korea have also scheduled an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss the issue and the solution, if possible, from ever-increasing chances of a war.

However, market response to such high-level Geo-political news seems not that strong as US and Canadian bourses are closed and there aren’t many economics scheduled from the rest of the globe, except UK Construction PMI. As a result, even if the safe-havens are likely to maintain their up-moves, chances of their further rally are less likely considering the US absence while GBP may respond to the PMI with a bit more extension to its latest recovery.

Technical Talk

EURUSD’s sustained trading above short-term ascending trend-line, at 1.1850, indicates brighter chances of its up-moves to 1.1920 and the 1.1965 while USDJPY is indicating 109.00 and the 108.60 re-tests with 110.00 and the 110.70 acting as nearby resistances. Moving on, NZDJPY respects an upward slanting TL support of 78.30 and may challenge 79.00 but a dip below support-line may drag it to 78.00 & 77.70.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 05 – September – 2017

Hello Traders,

While news of North Korea’s Hydrogen bomb rejuvenated safe-havens on Monday, absence of US & Canadian traders curbed major market moves during the week-start. However, this didn’t restrict the EUR’s rally which kept being buyers’ favorite due to strong fundamentals favoring ECB’s rate-hike in near-future and the weak economic numbers from US confining such moves by the Fed. Further, the GBP also dropped with a year’s low Construction PMI and a political clash at UK concerning the Brexit negotiation with EU whereas CAD remained stronger with the Crude regaining investors’ attention after some of the US refineries resumed working. Additionally, AUD couldn’t mark its strength with a bit weaker Company Operating Profit but the NZD enjoyed commodity prices’ gains.

At the Geo-political front, Donald Trump, agreed to offer huge dollar support to the South Korea via weapon sales to confront North Korean threat whereas US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, asked for strongest sanctions against the hermit kingdom to realize its mistake. However, latest news broke that the Kim Jong Un’s regime may fire an ICBM missile ahead of its foundation-day on Sept. 9, which in-turn made global leaders more uneasy.

Looking at the Tuesday, when majority of the international markets are active, early-day moves were governed by monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The Australian central bank left its present monetary policy unchanged by praising latest improvements in housing market and slew of economics; though, strong AUD and a bit slow wage growth seemed their main worries which refrained them from being hawkish. Also, the Chinese Caixin Services PMI rose to three-month’s high. As a result, mixed AUD moves witnessed during early-sessions.

For the rest of the day, UK Services PMI, US Factory Orders and a speech from Federal Reserve Board member, Lael Brainard, are all scheduled to entertain traders. While the UK Services PMI may hurt the GBP with a bit softer figure, US Factory Orders are also likely to add weakness into the USD with an expected highest contraction since October 2014. But, hawkish comments from Lael Brainard may help the greenback to recover some of its latest losses while geo-political pressure from North Korea seems another major factor that can determine US currency’s moves.

Technical Talk

AUDUSD’s latest recovery from 0.7940 indicates brighter chances of it to witness 0.8000 mark, breaking which 0.8015 & 0.8040 could follow the suit. Alternatively, 0.7920 & 0.7870 may offer nearby supports to the pair. Further, NZDUSD’s bounce from 200-day SMA level needs to justify its strength by clearing 0.7200 round-figure in order to claim 0.7220 & 0.7255, else 0.7130 and the 0.7100 may regain sellers’ attention. Moving on, GBPJPY is trading around 141.15-25 support-confluence, breaking which can flash 140.40 and the 140.00 on the chart while 142.00 and the 142.50 are likely adjacent resistances that the pair could aim for during its pullback.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 06 – September – 2017

Hello Traders,

Tuesday was no different for the US Dollar and safe-havens as on-going Geo-political tensions emanating from North Korea, mainly against US, continued hurting the greenback and propelled the demand for risk-safety, which in-turn helped the JPY, CHF and Gold prices. The political show took another turn on Tuesday when some of the UN members, including Russia and China, refrained to give consent on US demand of levying hard sanctions on North Korea. The matter became worst when North Korean representative to UN said the recent Hydrogen Bomb test was a gift to US and there are many such gifts on the way if the world’s largest economy continues maintaining its behavior. However, absence of harsh comments from US President, Donald Trump, surprised global investors. Other than the war-like threats, disappointing figure of US Factory Orders and dovish comments from two of the FOMC members, in their public appearances, provided additional damages to the US Dollar.

While the greenback kept running down, the EUR managed to remain strong but the surprise factor was GBP’s rally. The Pound rallied on Tuesday even after registering weakest Services PMI since October 2016 as Theresa May’s push to have progress on Brexit talks assured investors for a good deal between the EU and UK. Moving on, the AUD reversed its early-day losses, resulted after RBA’s not so strong comments, while NZD pleased buyers with upbeat GDT Price Index. Further, CAD rose ahead of today’s BoC meet and got extra support from Crude prices which traded high as majority of US refineries resumed working.

During early Wednesday, the Australian Dollar witnessed the pullback as Q2 2017 GDP refrained to meet the expectations even if being higher than previous mark. The Crude prices also trimmed some of its latest gains ahead of inventory numbers while CAD traders showed their worry before BoC meet by cleaning some of their early longs. Additionally, Gold and JPY seems taking a halt from their latest rally but the EUR and GBP refrained to bend down in front of their US counterpart.

Moving forward, Trade Balance numbers from US & Canada, monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI are some details/events that can entertain investors for the rest of the day. While latest slew of Canada’s upbeat economics indicate another rate-hike and/or signal to rate-hike from BoC, which can help the CAD to extend its north-run, larger US Trade deficit might add into the list of reasons for USD Bears to sell the greenback. However, upbeat expectations from ISM PMI may curb chances of extreme downside by the US Dollar.

With the Geo-political tensions likely continue offering green signals to safe-havens, latest threat from massive Category 5 storm Hurricane Irma, which is heading in direction to the Caribbean Sea and Florida, could add strength into the risk-safety momentum. Though, change in the Trump’s response to North Korea, from too harsh to diplomatic, can lure USD buyers.

Technical Talk

Offering a month’s high can’t be termed as a green signal for GBPUSD’s surge to 1.3110 as the 1.3055-60 resistance is still intact and might trigger the currency’s pullback towards 1.2990 and the 1.2960 supports. In case of the USDCAD, the 1.2425, the 1.2440 and the 1.2490 are likely nearby resistance with 1.2330 and the 1.2280 acting as adjacent supports. Furthermore, GBPCAD’s latest up-moves needs to surpass 1.6220-25 horizontal-line and the 1.6290 descending TL in order to reflect its strength while 1.6100, the 1.6050 and the 1.6030 may act as immediate rests for the pair in case of its U-turn.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 07 – September – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even if Monday’s US holiday & Trump’s failure to levy harsh sanctions on North Korea, mainly due to Russia and China’s opposition at UN, entertained investors during early-week, US President’s surprise deal with Democrats to extend the debt limit till December pleased the USD Bulls on Wednesday. Additionally, a bit less expected rate-hike from the BoC and GBP’s refrain to respond to soft economics kept making traders busy on Wednesday. However, market focus now shifts to today’s monetary policy meeting by the ECB wherein analysts would seek details on Draghi’s outlook for bond-buying program and strength of the EUR.

Let’s start discussing what is in for market-players during the rest of the week.

Volatility Was At Its Best

While upbeat GDP number and US President’s diplomatic response to North Korean threats helped the US Dollar to sustain soft jobs report and flash a weekly closing, the EUR kept maintaining its strength as inflation figures indicated brighter chances of the ECB’s tighter monetary policy going forward. Further, the GBP struggled between Brexit proposals and PMI readings whereas safe-havens, namely JPY, Gold and CHF, maintained their advances on geo-political tensions between US & North Korea. Additionally, NZD couldn’t enjoy buying power like AUD & CAD as RBNZ Chief played dovish tone in his latest appearance. Furthermore, Crude prices stretched it’s south-run as hurricane hit US refineries curbed energy demand when investors turned to gasoline.

Moving forward, Monday’s US & Canadian holidays curbed market response to North Korean Hydrogen bomb threat revealed on Sunday while the global leader’s failure to get the hermit kingdom punished via harsh sanctions through UN hurt the greenback before Wednesday. As a result, EUR and safe-havens kept being strong while some of the commodity currencies like AUD and CAD, had their own strong fundamentals to support their up-moves. Moving on, Crude also recovered a bit after majority of the US production resumed while the NZD seem failing to reflect its strength and the GBP refrained to respect softer than forecast economic data-points.

Wednesday proved to be the good-day for US Dollar as Donald Trump surprisingly agreed with Democrats to get the US debt limit extended till December, which was initially up for ending on October. Though, resignation of Fed Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer, curbed extreme hike of the greenback. On the other hand, Bank of Canada’s rate-hike and indication of further such moves in future propelled CAD towards strongest in more than two-years while EUR traded nervous ahead of today’s ECB and the GBP remained firm. Also, the Crude prices rose on the news of restart of US refineries but signals of upcoming category 5 hurricane Irma and restart of oil output from Libya after two-weeks of halt couldn’t let the energy traders be happy for long.

If we observe aforementioned writing, we could say markets have started being volatile and the main event for this week, i.e. ECB, is still left to play its magic.

What Draghi & Co. Are Expected To Do

Following Bank of Canada’s surprise rate-hike, global investors are eagerly waiting for Mr. Draghi to speak for his plans on monetary policy during Thursday’s press conference as the ECB is also not expected to alter its present state of framework.

One of the barriers that Mr.Draghi & Co. could find in being hawkish is the inflation as the price gauge is still struggling around 1.5% and is way below 2.0% medium-term target of the central bank. Though, Mr. President has already signaled curtailing of its bond purchases and a possible rate-hike then after and remained silent for the recent strength of the EUR.

Hence, investors might be more interested to base EUR trades on how well the ECB President can lay the ground-work for dialing back asset purchase program and term the recent welcome economics. Additionally, clues relating to strength of the EUR might also direct near-term moves of the regional currency.

On the other hand, Japanese GDP, UK Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance, Canadian Jobs report and the Chinese Inflation are also left for publishing during the rest of the week.

Having observed ECB action on Thursday, Friday starts with Japan’s final reading of Q2 2017 GDP figure which is expected to soften a bit by flashing 0.7% mark versus 1.0% initial forecast. Later in the day, UK Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance may both help the GBP maintain its strength as Manufacturing Production could register a welcome growth of 0.3% from 0.0% earlier while Goods Trade Balance might also show reducing deficit, to -12.1B against -12.7B prior. Moving further, Canadian Employment Change is likely to increase with 15.0K against 10.9K earlier while the Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 6.3% mark.

China’s CPI & PPI are up for release on Saturday and can stretch the week’s volatility till the end. CPI could inflate the positivity surrounding commodity currencies, with its 1.6% mark from 1.4% earlier but a bit soft PPI, to 5.4% from 5.5% prior, may curb chances of any huge up-moves.

At the Geo-political front, North Korean threat is still not tamed and multiple hurricanes are expected to hit US, which in-turn reignites importance of safe-havens and may hurt the USD.

Looking at the economic calendar, GBP may remain benefited and the CAD could also maintain its strength while a bit pullback in AUD and NZD can’t be denied if China’s inflation softens. Also, weaker Japanese GDP may not hurt the JPY much due to its risk-safety status while USD moves depends upon ECB and Trump’s capacity to conquer North Korean threat.

Technical Analysis

Irrespective of its lower-high formation, the EURUSD is vulnerable to further upside towards 1.2050 unless it breaks the 1.1860 TL while GBPUSD should close beyond 1.3060 to flash 1.3110 on the chart unless then chances of its pullback to 1.2930 can’t be ruled out. Further, USDJPY has 108.40 & 108.00 as immediate support with 110.15 acting as adjacent resistance while USDCAD already cleared 1.2250 and is now indicating to 1.2180 and the 1.2130 numbers to be the rests. Additionally, AUDUSD has 0.8065 as resistance and 0.7930 as support while NZDUSD is clubbed between 0.7220 and the 0.7130 with eitherside break offering noticeable moves by the pair.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 08 – September – 2017

Hello Traders,

ECB President, Mario Draghi, is known for his optimism and the central-bank leader again proved himself on Thursday when he managed to impress EUR buyers with a hint of dialing-back bond-purchases even after downgrading inflation forecast & indicating a bit about surging currency. As a result, the Euro extended its north-run and the USD had to bear the losses. Also, more than two year high US Jobless Claims, mainly due to additional burden from Mexico, provided notable weakness to the greenback. On the other hand, the GBP also strengthened with expectations favoring Theresa May’s ability to get the Brexit move smoothly whereas AUD, NZD and CAD remained upbeat with weaker US Dollar helping the commodity basket. However, the Crude prices couldn’t stretch its previous advances as higher than expected US inventory level and threat of Irma hurricane continued hurting the energy prices. Additionally, JPY and GOLD maintained their elite status in the list of global traders as Geo-political tensions, be it from North Korea or from US hurricanes, continue making investors rush towards risk-free assets.

While the globe is near to North Korea’s “Founding Day”, threat of another missile-test from the hermit-kingdom is something which is hurting overall trade sentiment during early Friday. On the top of that, latest news concerning 8-magnitude earthquake shaking southern Mexico coast added the fuel to the geo-political worries and helped JPY, Gold and CHF while providing damages to the USD. The Tsunami Warning System also warned residents for a probable tsunami due to the earthquake trigger.

On the economic side, Japan witnessed a revised down final GDP while China got a soft trade surplus due to weak export demand and rising imports. For the rest of the day, UK Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance, followed by Canadian Employment details, are likely to entertain market players. While UK readings are might please GBP bulls, increase in Canadian Employment Change is what could help the CAD continue rising. However, both the currencies have been very strong off-late and a weak output might drag them towards south.

In case of the Geo-political problems, Mr. Trump recently conveyed some soft message that indicates his readiness to talk with North Korea before putting any military pressure. Hence, if the Kim Jong-un considers it as a welcome sign and refrains to put another missile test during this weekend, present threats of war may be receded and can help the USD to recover some of its latest losses. Though, hurricanes are the things that still loom over the world’s largest economy and may continue dragging the greenback towards south.

Technical Talk

USDCHF again challenges the 0.9430 TL and a sustained break of which can quickly fetch it to 0.9380 with a pullback can’t be considered strong unless clearing 0.9530. Further, USDJPY’s dip below 108.00 indicates brighter chances of its 106.90 re-test while 108.50 can entertain counter-trend buyers. Additionally, AUDJPY may come-back to 87.00 with 87.90–88.00 acting as strong upside resistance.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 11 – September – 2017

Hello Traders,

While Geo-political threats emanating from North Korea and failure of US to get the hermit kingdom punished via harsh sanctions through UN hurt the greenback during early-week, ECB’s hawkish statement and worries concerning another hurricane named Irma dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) again towards south on a weekly basis. The EUR, on the other hand, remained strong with ECB policymakers signaling chances to discuss bond-purchase tapering in October whereas GBP ignored soft PMI prints and favored upbeat Manufacturing Production as UK leaders brace for steps to overcome hard Brexit. Further, the Canadian Dollar was one of the biggest gainer due to BoC’s surprise rate-hike & welcome employment numbers whereas AUD and NZD also registered noticeable gains on commodity basket strength. Additionally, Gold and JPY continued being risk-averse traders’ favorite and the the Crude also recovered some of its prior losses as majority of US refineries resumed production.

Having witnessed another tension-filled week, global markets had some good news during weekend as the North Korea refrained from testing another missile on its 69th anniversary of founding while the Irma hurricane didn’t reach the feared Category 5 storm. At the economic front, China’s seven-month high CPI & four-month high PPI rejuvenated expectations of a pickup in global inflation whereas news that Saudi Arabia discussed ways to extend global oil production cut beyond March 2018 with Venezuelan and Kazakhstan helped the Crude prices.

Moving forward, the US Dollar started the week with a bit positive trade sentiment due to receding fears from North Korea and hurricanes while JPY and Gold seems witnessing pullback as macro optimism seems getting strong. However, Monday is the day when US and South Korea are up to push UN for harsh sanctions on North Korea for which Mr. Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, already said that it isn’t doing anything wrong and if harsh sanction is levied upon, the nation might retaliate with force.

In case of the economic data-points, the early-day release of Japan’s Core Machinery Orders, Tertiary Industry Activity & Prime Machine Tool Orders flashed better than forecast numbers but overall market optimism hurt JPY’s safe-haven demand and hence curbed the currency’s advances. Though, the news concerning sanctions on North Korea is still awaited and may rejuvenate investors’ run for risk-safety. For the rest of the day, Canadian Housing Starts seems the only release left for publishing and hence fewer market moves are expected.

If US successfully get the UN levy harsh sanctions on North Korea, irrespective of China and Russia’s refrain, chances of witnessing USD up-moves become brighter; though, a following retaliation by the Korean peninsula could give rise to JPY and Gold’s up-move with the greenback likely shedding its expected gains. In case of commodity currencies, namely, AUD, NZD and CAD, their fundamental strength & China’s upbeat inflation figures could help extend their north-run if the USD fail to register noticeable gains. Furthermore, EUR could keep enjoying hawkish ECB while GBP is likely to remain benefited from latest improvement in Pound buying backed by expectations of soft Brexit and good economic data-points.

Technical Talk

With the EURUSD’s latest pullback signaling 1.1935-30 to appear on the chart, its further downside might be curbed by an immediate ascending trend-line which keeps indicating the pair’s north-run to the 1.2040, the 1.2070 and then to the 1.2100 round-figure. Further, GBPUSD recently bounced from 1.3165 and can aim for 1.3220 and the 1.3260 while EURGBP may find it hard to break four-month old ascending TL, at 0.9045 now, which in-turn could trigger its U-turn towards 0.9200.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 12 – September – 2017

Hello Traders,

Monday proved to be a good day for global investors as receding tensions from North Korea & hurricane Irma pleased risk-takers during early-day while watered-down UN sanctions on the Kim Jong-un’s economy helped extending the early-day moves to offer positive daily closing by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX). As a result, safe-havens like JPY, Gold and CHF witnessed pullbacks whereas EUR refrained to stretch its previous north-run due to dearth of economic details/events and rise of the USD. Further, the GBP, even after gaining against the EUR, remained weak in front the greenback but the CAD kept being a strong currency as increasing Crude prices, mainly because of Saudi intention of extending global production cut beyond March 2018, joined strong Housing Starts’ number from Canada. Moving on, AUD and NZD had to trim some of their latest gains while comparing them with the US Dollar but upbeat Chinese inflation figures supported them to be gainers on the rest-part.

Moving forward, early-Tuesday moves continued hurting the JPY, Gold and CHF prices while the overall US Dollar Index (I.USDX) remained under pressure as traders still seem unconvinced for the Fed’s rate-hike chances and optimism concerning US economy. Additionally, GBP regained its across the board charm before the crucial UK CPI comes alive and could possibly favor the BoE to be hawkish later in the week. Moreover, EUR and commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, reflected their catch-up moves whereas Crude dipped a bit as worried over global supply-glut unearthed by increased production from US, Libya and some of the OPEC countries.

Looking at the rest of the day’s scheduled economic releases, the UK CPI is expected to post a three-month high figure of 2.8% v/s 2.6% prior while US JOLTS Job Openings may register another set-back from US employment front with 5.96M number compared to 6.16M earlier. Also, the New Zealand FPI could help the NZD escalate recent recovery with a positive figure against -0.2% previous month announcement.

At the Geo-political front, the North Korean leader isn’t still happy with US even if the UN levied softer than previously proposed sanction on the nation and may retaliate with another missile-test which it refrained to conduct on 69th founding anniversary. Also, the hurricane Irma, even if softened off-late, isn’t also calmed down and continues flashing red-signals for international markets. Hence, with the global risk-sentiment remain on the cards and expected weaker reading from US, the USD might not be capable of holding its Monday gains, which in-turn may help the safe-havens and commodity basket. On the other hand, EUR and GBP could keep being strong due to their own positive fundamentals compared to US.

Technical Talk

Although USDJPY’s present rise signals 109.80 to appear on the chart, it’s following advances might be curbed by short-term descending TL and may trigger the pair’s pullback towards 108.60 & 108.00 re-tests. Further, USDCAD continue reflecting Bears’ wish to print 1.2000 psychological magnet as a quote unless it breaks 1.2430 but 1.2170 and the 1.2250 can offer immediate resistances to prices. Additionally, GBPAUD is struggling with 50-day SMA level of 1.6460 in order to aim for 1.6570 and the 1.6600 resistances whereas the 1.6310 and the 1.6230 might offer intermediate halts during its pullback.

Have a nice trading-day ……