Daily Fundamental Dose

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 07– November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Although economic platter was almost empty on Monday, political plays surrounding US, Asia and Saudi Arabia entertained market players during the week-start. Among them, uncertainty concerning US Tax reform amid opposition’s resistance and crackdown on corruption by the purge of high-profile Saudi Arabian leaders gained highlights while US President’s visit to Japan remained not quite impressive. As a result, the US Dollar languished on the first trading-day of the week while Crude Oil managed to extend its prior north-run. Further, the EUR also gained a bit on better than forecast German Factory Orders whereas GBP rallied to recover its last week’s plunge after UK PM assured a better Brexit deal to British trade association. Additionally, AUD, NZD and CAD benefited from the commodity basket strength while JPY and Gold gained on USD’s weakness but the CAD has additional advantage in the form of 21-month high Ivey PMI figure.

Moving forward, early-day trading on Tuesday remained quite interesting with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) conveying no change in its monetary policy but showed concern for slow Inflation and wage growth, which in-turn dragged the AUD towards south against majority of its counterparts. On the political front, the President of US, Donald Trump, now heads to South Korea and then to China during his Asia tour and is expected to have detailed discussions with both the economies’ leaders on how to tame the North Korea’s missile-test efforts. Hence, worries relating the North Korea’s possible reaction to Trump’s Asia tour reignited and favored the safe-havens, namely Gold and JPY; though, optimism surrounding Fed rate-hike helped the US Dollar and the same confined these assets’ further gains.

For the rest of the day, public appearances of the central bankers from Europe, US and Canada might offer noticeable moves of the respective currencies while US JOLTS Job Opening & New Zealand’s GDT Price Index could decorate the economic calendar with likely good figures. Also, EU Retail Sales and UK Halifax HPI are second-tier details that may gain trades’ attention.

Even if majority of US Republicans trying hard to please Democrats to have least damage to their President’s proposed tax-plan, some amongst them are still against the much optimistic proposal of Mr. Trump and that indicates brighter chances that the policymakers might fail to deliver the action plan before the deadline and that could actually hurt the USD. However, Janet Yellen’s appearance may push her to remain optimistic for December rate-hike, which can help the greenback for short-term. Further, the ECB President may try to correct his latest mistake at ECB meeting when he made the EUR plunge whereas CAD is finally recovering its losses and a hawkish statement from BoC Governor can help the currency to stretch its north-run.

Technical Talk

The 0.7700 round-figure, comprising 200-day SMA, seems again limiting AUDUSD’s upside and may well drag it towards 0.7650 and the 0.7630 re-test but a break of 0.7700 could help the quote rise in direction to 0.7730 and then to the 0.7745. Further, USDCHF recently took a U-turn from 0.9970 and can well challenge the 1.0030 again that holds the gate for the price-run to 1.0060 with 0.9930 & 0.9900 acting as immediate supports. Additionally, NZDCHF couldn’t clear the 0.6935-40 resistance-confluence and is witnessing pullback moves to 0.6910 and then to 0.6890 whereas an upside break of 0.6940 indicating the pair’s rise to 0.6970 and then to the 0.7000 resistance-marks.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 08– November – 2017

Hello Traders,

With better than expected JOLTS Job Openings giving another signal for the strength of US employment sector and the House of Representatives also progressing faster on Trump’s tax-plan, even with heavy opposition, the US Dollar remained positive on Tuesday. Though, not so positive news from US President’s on-going Asian tour confined the greenback’s extensive gains. On the other hand, EUR kept declining with the start of Brexit talks being not so good, which also hurt the GBP, whereas JPY and Gold both had to respect the USD’s strength by registering losses on D1. Further, AUD, NZD and CAD couldn’t ignore the selling waves in commodity basket whereas Crude also dropped as API inventories couldn’t please energy buyers.

During early Wednesday, threats to Trump’s tax plan was heightened after some of the policymakers, including the Republicans, showed harsh efforts to Mr. President’s concessions to rich Americans. Additionally, China’s export numbers that showed record high surplus with US also flashed worrisome sign as Donald Trump may behave unlikely on the news while he will be in China. Overall, the China’s Trade Surplus noted as better than past 193B but couldn’t beat the 275B consensus by being around 253B. Though, individual exports and import growth stats were quite in favor of commodity basket pullback.

Moving forward, Canadian housing numbers and Crude inventories are likely intermediate news that traders might observe to forecast today’s market moves while monetary policy meeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to dominate the desk then after. Also, Geo-political tensions in Middle-East have also indicated a possible feud between the Saudi Arabia and Iran, two big members of the OPEC, and may hurt the global production-cut pact.

While Canadian Housing market figures are expected to help the CAD stretch its latest recovery a bit longer, official release of US Crude Inventory levels may show another drawdown and can propel the energy prices further towards north. In case of the NZD, even if the RBNZ isn’t expected to alter its monetary policy, recent change in the New Zealand’s government could offer some interesting facts to affect the Kiwi prices and hence the monetary policy statement becomes worth observing. Also, the speech by the RBNZ Governor might also indicate towards how the policymaker feels about the government’s possible intervention central-bank proceedings.

For the USD traders, there aren’t any big economics scheduled for release during the day but Trump’s arrival to China and developments on his Tax-plan at home might entertain the greenback players.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD’s inability to clear the 1.3180 resistance, needless to point the 1.3200 mark, signals brighter chances of its pullback to 1.3115 and then the 1.3060-55 re-test while the USDJPY is likely maintaining the 114.50 & 113.00 range. Further, AUDJPY needs to surpass 87.15 horizontal-line in order to aim for 87.35 and the 87.70 resistances with 86.65 & 86.20 acting as nearby supports to watch during its decline.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 09– November – 2017

Hello Traders,

While the mixed messages from RBA & RBNZ have already propelled the AUD and NZD moves, together with market’s response to China’s inflation figures, there are fewer economics left for publishing during the already thin economic calendar-week. However, Geo-political concerns emanating from Saudi Arabia, US and Asia could keep offering interesting facts to entertain investors. Let’s discuss them.

It Was Actually An Active Week

Unlike the present week, the economic calendar was heavier and contained too many important events that together gifted volatility to last week. To name some of the headlines, BoE’s once in a decade rate-hike didn’t let upbeat UK PMIs to support the GBP as the central bank’s tone sounded like one and done case while employment details from US, Canada and New Zealand flashed welcome figures but couldn’t please the commodity buyers with top-tier PMIs from China and US being dismal, which in-turn dragged the AUD towards south but not the NZD and CAD which benefited due to pullback. Further, US President proposed his tax-plan in front of the House of Representatives and revealed his choice of Fed Governor Jerome Powell as next Fed Chair that helped the US Dollar to register another weekly advance whereas softer than expected Flash CPI dragged the EUR towards negative weekly closing. Additionally, the safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold, had to take the loss due to market’s risk-off mood while increased chances of extension to the global production-cut agreement favored Crude prices.

A Bit Softer Moves Witnessed During The Week

With majority of headline details/events already being conveyed during last week, there are very few details left for publishing during the week. Among them, monetary policy meetings by the RBA & RBNZ, together with inflation figures from China and US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, gained major attentions out of which only the US gauge of consumer confidence is still on the card to roll out.

Even if both the RBA and RBNZ didn’t alter their monetary policy, the former sounded a bit nervous for its inflation and hurt the AUD while the later upgraded inflation forecast and signaled sooner than expected rate-hike that propelled the NZD. Also, the Chinese Inflation figures flashed some welcome numbers on Thursday and helped the commodity basket to extend their latest profit-booking, which also favored AUD, NZD and CAD, while the Crude benefited from Geo-political crisis at Saudi Arabia and could ignore higher than forecast US inventory build.

Given the recent purge in Saudi Arabia to crackdown corruption reigniting global political tensions, together with Trump’s Asia visit and the drama concerning his tax-plan at home being additional fuel, global investors seem not bothering about thin economic calendar. As a result, the JPY and Gold managed to recover majority of its latest losses while the USD is struggling to hold its heights. Moving on, uncertainties concerning Brexit hurt the GBP while the EUR, left with no important data-point, gained on greenback’s weakness. However, impressive earnings report from US tech-giants and positive result of JOLTS Job Openings confined the USD’s excessive drop.

Politics May Keep Dominating Trading Desks

Although monthly releases of UK Manufacturing Production & Goods Trade Balance, followed by the US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, are the only things about to publish on Friday, political waves at US, Middle-East and Asia could cater the need of momentum traders.

Looking at the forecasts, UK Manufacturing Production may soften a bit to 0.3% from 0.4% earlier but the Goods Trade Balance can register a smaller deficit figure of -12.9B compared to -14.2B previous while Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to please greenback buyers with 100.80 mark versus the downwardly revised 100.70 earlier.

Hence, economic details are less likely to create much of the market noise with majority of them remaining around previous levels.

In case of Geo-political concerns, Saudi Arabia’s latest purge to crackdown corruption is still in the highlight as some of the important policymakers are also under the threat of arrests while the nation’s latest feud with Iran indicates not so happy journey for OPEC’s production-cut accord.

Turning to US, President’s tax plan is finding it harder to please the House of Representative, even if some of the changes are proposed, while the Senate is planning to announce its own tax-cut bill on Thursday, differing from one in the House of Representatives, which may generate even larger noise of opposition as the Republicans hold minority status in Senate.

Moving forward, US President’s long Asia tour seems struggling to generate its required efforts as Japan didn’t sound too optimistic about the trade-ties with US, needless to mention its absence of word for North Korea. However, the South Korea had to please Mr. Trump as he being the only super-power in its side to confront the Hermit kingdom’s missile-threats.

Mr. Donald Trump is in China on Thursday where he struck a welcome business deal and also praised the nation to help US confront the North Korea diplomatically; however, his eagerness to look for more from China and Russia may not be satisfied looking at the latest response from both the economies.

**Given the on-going differences concerning tax-bill between Republicans and Democrats, the delay in tax-budget announcement is more likely and the same can hurt the USD while Trump’s failure to lure Asian leaders against the North Korea could add the weakness into the greenback. **

Further, tensions at Middle-East have started threatening the Crude’s global supply-cut pact and may affect the energy front negatively. Additionally, the UK PM is again in threat of losing power after the recent scandals push some of Theresa May’s top-tier politicians to resign, which in-turn signals GBP’s further downside.

However, in all these crisis safe-havens like JPY, Gold and CHF are likely to benefit due to risk-safety demand but impressive earnings from US companies could limit their rally.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD struggles around 1.1550-55, breaking which it can drop to 1.1480, with 1.1660 acting as nearby important resistance whereas GBPUSD is less likely to dip beneath 1.3060 and aim for 1.3000 but its upside can be confined by 1.3180 & 1.3230 resistance-levels. Further, USDJPY again failed to surpass 114.40-50 area and dropped below short-term ascending TL that may drive it to 113.00 but the USDCAD had to break 1.2680 in order to test 100-day SMA level of 1.2600. Moreover, AUDUSD seems struggling between 0.7730 & 0.7620 while NZDUSD need to clear 0.7010 barrier to aim for 0.7055-60 and a downside break of 0.6890 likely again fetching it to 0.6815.

Have a nice trading-day ……

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[FxAnil]

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[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 10 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Fears emanating from divergence between US House and Senate’s tax-proposals provided another negative day to the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) as the Senate revealed its tax-plan that was different from the House of Representatives, with a proposed delay in corporate tax-cut until 2019 as compared to the House’s recommendation of 2018. With this, the EUR stretched its recent recovery whereas the GBP remained sluggish on political drama at the UK. Further, the JPY and Gold managed to keep pleasing the risk-averse buyers but the commodities took advantage of weaker greenback and upbeat Chinese inflation figures, which in-turn favored the AUD and CAD. Though, the NZD had to register losses on the news that the nation’s Finance Minister, Grant Robertson, wished to discuss the central bank’s emphasis of 2.0% mid-point inflation with the new governor whenever he/she is appointed. Additionally, Crude prices gained at the end of the day with optimistic sentiment concerning global production-cut, even amidst feud between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

As we finally reach the last-day of the calendar week having fewer economic details, a sudden spurt in trade flows due to settlement of some derivatives offered good start to the day. The moves were then backed by RBA’s monetary policy statement which forecasted rising growth but expectations relating to subdued inflation restricting rate-hike path confined the Aussie’s up-moves. However, the US Dollar managed to recover some of its latest losses after US President completed its China tour and now heads to Vietnam without any negative updates, which were more afraid of.

While all the political plays relating to US Tax-plan, Trump’s Asia visit, sudden resignations at UK and Saudi Arabia’s purge still remain dominant factors to predict market moves, monthly readings of UK Manufacturing Production & Trade Balance, followed by US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment, could offer additional information to trade upon.

Consensus suggests, UK Manufacturing Production may soften a bit to 0.3% from 0.4% earlier but the Goods Trade Balance can register a smaller deficit figure of -12.9B compared to -14.2B previous while Preliminary reading of UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to please greenback buyers with 100.80 mark versus the downwardly revised 100.70 earlier.

Hence, the UK economics may raise another question mark for Pound traders, even if the Cable it running towards a weekly gain, whereas the US detail can support the greenback stretch its latest pullback a bit longer towards covering major of the weekly losses.

Technical Talk

USDCAD now rests around 1.2660 TL support and a successful break of which can further stretch its downturn to 1.2600 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.2590 with 1.2730 & 1.2780 acting as nearby resistances. Further, EURUSD seems finding it hard to surpass the 1.1655-60 resistance-zone and witness a pullback in direction to 1.1570 with 1.1710 being follow-on upside figure to watch if the pair breaks 1.1660. Additionally, GBPCHF is likely finding it hard to extend its recent pullback from 1.3025-30 horizontal-line as the 1.3100 TL mark limits it’s upside.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 13 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Be it suspicion over the future of US President’s optimistic tax-plan or dearth of economic details, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) had to bear it all with first in a four-week negative weekly closing. The EUR, even after gone through the same lack of stats, managed to post gains due to positive sentiment surrounding future growth of the regional bloc while the GBP remained sluggish as upbeat data-points had to confront with political uncertainty at UK. Further, the JPY, CHF and Gold could extend their previous advances on safe-haven demand whereas Crude posted fifth week of rally amid Geo-political tensions in Middle-East and positivity concerning the effect of global production-cut accord. Additionally, commodity currencies like AUD, NZD and CAD also registered weekly positive closings on China’s upbeat inflation even if RBA didn’t sound too optimistic but the RBNZ was in a good mood to support the Kiwi.

While political waves played a crucial role during last-week, the moves didn’t rest even on weekends. The latest news came from the Australia wherein the Government’s rule is challenged by another leader’s quit in the dual-citizenship saga after the nation’s Deputy PM had to resign over the same issue before nearly fortnight. The UK PM also had a bad news following Sunday Times’ report that nearly 40 members of parliament are ready to ink a letter of no confidence for the present occupant of the position, Theresa May, who is already struggling to manage her power amid widespread resignations by British lawmakers during recently erupted sex-scandal. In addition to the dip in AUD and GBP, the Crude prices also remained volatile on early Monday as rising US rig counts and Saudi Arabia’s signal to raise security of its crude facilities after a fire at a pipeline that connects the two Arab allies entertained traders.

At the economic calendar, increase in Prelim Machine Tool Orders helped the JPY to stretch its up-moves whereas the EUR had to witness a pullback after German WPI lagged behind consensus & prior. The US Dollar, however, recovered some of its latest losses with Trump’s Asia tour about to complete with no threats received from North Korea, which in-turn unearthed the chances of a talk between US and the hermit kingdom to tame the prevailing tension.

For the rest of the day, there are no major fundamental numbers scheduled for publish and the Canadian markets are also closed for the day, which in-turn indicate softer start to the crucial week that contains headline CPI & employment release from major economies. Though, early-day speech by Philadelphia Fed President, Patrick Harker, helped supporting the rate-hike concerns and the same could continue till end of the day as there are nothing more to observe. However, one shouldn’t ignore the political developments concerning US President’s tax-hike plan at his land, which aren’t going well and may keep hurting the greenback.

Technical Talk

Following its break of short-term ascending TL support, the NZDUSD bounced off a 0.6910 support and is presently struggling to extend latest recovery, which can meet 0.6960 & 0.6980 on the break of 0.6930, with 0.6910 & 0.6880 acting as immediate supports. Further, USDJPY couldn’t clear the 113.70 intermediate resistance-mark during its up-moves to 114.30 and may revisit 113.10 and 112.80 rest-points. Moving on, EURGBP cleared 0.8885-90 horizontal-resistance and may now rise to 0.8940 & 0.8970 north-side numbers while 0.8850 & 0.8810 can confine the pair’s near-term downside.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 14 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even if lack of economic details, backed by Canada’s extended weekend, were the main concerns for investors on Monday, political news offered an interesting start to the important week. The US Dollar managed to recover some of its latest losses on hopes Mr. Trump will be able to get his tax-plan passed in Thursday’s house vote after returning from Asian tour while the EUR maintained the up-moves with bullish bets being in favor of the regional currency ahead of European Central Bank conference. The GBP had to bear the burden of looming uncertainty on Theresa May’s future as UK PM whereas JPY dropped a bit on profit-booking but the Gold refrained from bending down due to geo-political tensions supporting safe-havens. Further, the AUD, NZD and CAD declined as overall weakness in commodity basket triggered these currencies’ dip whereas Crude prices also weakened as rising US production regained sellers’ attention.

During early Tuesday, when the economic calendar actually started getting hot, investors shifted their attention off from the political happenings. At the beginning the Australian Business Confidence helped the AUD but soft releases from China, including Industrial Production and Retail Sales, offered additional weakness to the commodity front. Market players are now observing the UK CPI, EU Flash GDP & ZEW Economic sentiment to determine the moves of the GBP & the EUR respectively while US PPI & Japanese PPI might entertain during the later part of the day.

On the political front, ECB’s conference grabs the highlight as central-bank leaders from US, UK, Japan and EU are scheduled to speak at the forum. Additionally, start of the two-day discussion among UK policymakers about the Brexit norms proposed by the PM could offer noticeable GBP moves whereas developments on the US Tax-plan at the Senate and the middle-east crisis can all offer a volatile day to investors fraternity.

In case of scheduled economics, details from EU & UK are both likely to support their respective currencies with consensus supporting better than prior releases but the US factory gate inflation might hinder the greenback’s latest up-moves. Moreover, the Japanese GDP, even after being expectedly softer, could keep helping the safe-haven currency as the same would be seventh straight quarter advance by the growth figure.

While Theresa May is likely to suffer a backlash during Brexit plan discussion at home due to latest resignation by some of the party members, healthy communication concerning monetary policy tightening at ECB’s conference could become a buying point for the USD, GBP and EUR. Though, tax-plan could keep raising drawbacks for the greenback.

Hence, with all important details/events lined up for release, chances of witnessing an interesting day for global markets can’t be denied.

Technical Talk

Having breached the 1.1675-80 resistance-region, the EURUSD seems heading towards the 1.1725-30 area with 1.1630 acting as downside support to watch on the break of 1.1675. Further, the USDCAD cleared the immediate TL resistance of 1.2715 and may challenge the 1.2780 & 1.2810 while the AUDCHF’s latest pullback needs to justify its strength by closing beyond 0. 7610 in order to aim for 0.7650 else the break of 0.7590 may again fetch the quote 0.7550.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 16 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Be it Inflation figures from UK & US or the Australian & British Employment stats, needless to mention about political noises emanating from US tax-plan & UK PM’s future, the Forex market responded to everything with a great diligence during the week. As a result, the US Dollar is likely running towards another weekly loss and the GBP also seems not immune to the downside. However, the EUR, the JPY and the Gold managed to benefit out of it while commodity currencies are likely struggling. Though, there isn’t anything certain in regards to the weekly closing as US Senate is still left for voting on the tax-plan and some second-tier economics, including UK Retail Sales, Canadian CPI and US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & housing market details, stand ready to entertain investors.

In order to understand fundamentals concerning rest of the week details/events, its better we start with what has happened till now and then progress towards the forecasts.

The First Weekly Loss Of The USD

Even if sluggish economic calendar limited the line of details in last-week, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) registered its first weekly downside in previous four on uncertainty concerning the President’s tax-plan after the Senate proposed a slightly different measure with gradual tax-cuts. Alike USD, which suffered due to political concerns, the GBP also dropped on uncertainty over the future of UK PM & slower progress of Brexit talks even after British details were quite welcome. The EUR, however, managed to capitalize the fall of the USD & the GBP with an uptick while JPY and Gold also rose with Geo-political threats, including that from Saudi Arabia, US & UK, supported the safe-havens. Further, the commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD gained on softer greenback and strong Chinese data-points whereas the Crude rallied on growing support for an extension to global production-cut accord beyond March 2018.

Slew Of Economics Couldn’t Divert Market Sentiment In Favor Of The Greenback

While the present week has comparatively more and important data-points scheduled for publish, many of which posted upbeat outcomes, investors didn’t alter their forecasts for the US Dollar as tax-plan from the President continue facing hurdles and indicate another administrative failure by the Trump team after being defeated while repealing Obamacare.

The latest US consumer-centric numbers were supportive to the Fed’s already priced-in December rate-hike while the UK’s softer inflation and not so strong employment figures kept raising bars for the BoE’s another rate-change. The German and Italy’s GDP figures, coupled with ZEW figures, helped the EUR to maintain its strength but the commodity currencies had to shed some of their recent gains on China’s sluggish Industrial Production & Retail Sales. Moving on, JPY and Gold kept being strong but the Crude witnessed profit-booking after IEA predicted a fall in demand and US stockpiles grew.

At the political front, news that around 40 members of Theresa May’s party stand ready to draft a no confidence vote against the UK PM offered additional weakness to the GBP while two Republicans showed their anger against Mr. Trump’s tax-plan and spread worries for Thursday’s voting on the same critical issue on hand. Additionally, Saudi Arabian purge against corruption seems soothing off-late while Theresa May’s Brexit proposal to her party and subsequent debate on it didn’t quite gain market attention.

Whatever Is Left Is Important Too

Although majority of the economic details/events have already taken place, Retail Sales from UK, Canadian CPI and US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index & housing market details are still there on the economic calendar to be published. Additionally, voting in the US Senate on President Donald Trump’s tax-plan is also scheduled to take place on Thursday and the same could help propel enough liquidity to please traders.

In case of economics, US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is likely to post 24.3 mark compared to 27.9 earlier on Thursday while the Building Permits & Housing Starts, on Friday, could again portray the strength of US reality sector with the former likely posting 1.25M against 1.23M prior and the later is expected to make 1.19M mark versus 1.13M earlier. Further, UK Retail Sales may help the Pound recover some of its latest losses with +0.1% mark against -0.8% prior contraction while the Canadian CPI could disappoint CAD Bulls by flashing 0.1% mark against 0.2% prior.

Hence, the Economic calendar is less likely to offer any strong support to the USD and may drag the CAD towards south but the GBP could witness a pullback depending upon the Retail Sales’ outcome.

Looking towards the burning political issues on hand, namely US tax-plan & UK PM’s future, some of the Republicans have already started showing their disagreement to the Trump’s tax-plan even before posting the formal vote to let the proposal go forward. Also, the President proposed to try getting support for the repeal/replace of Obamacare by including it in the present budget proposal, which in-turn raised another round of threats as Republicans have repeatedly failed to achieve that dream of them. As a result, it is most likely that they will become a barrier, like they did during Obamacare repeal, and may raise concern for a delayed tax-plan announcement. However, Mr. Trump has returned from his Asia trip, even with not so good news, and may try to regain fellow party-members’ support, which he is good at, and could help the tax-plan being considered for a law.

The UK politics look even pale with nothing good happening that can support Mrs. Theresa May to hold her seat as PM but the policymakers and the party aren’t ready for another election and that can let Mrs. May remain on power for a bit long.

While US politics is less likely to help the greenback recover its latest losses, the case is much brighter for the GBP with Tory’s resistance for another election. In all these, JPY and Gold should gain as such Geo-political moves affect market appetite for risk and favor the safe-havens.

Technical Analysis

Irrespective of the EURUSD’s latest rally, the pair couldn’t clear the 1.1830 on a daily closing basis which may drag the pair towards 1.1730 & 1.1660 re-test while 1.1910 could act as strong resistance on the 1.1830 break. The GBPUSD is struggling between the 1.3200 and the 1.3030 region with either side trigger indicating 1.3255 & 1.2980 whereas USDJPY recently bounced from 50-day SMA level of 112.55 and can challenge the 113.65 TL with 111.70 being strong downside support. Further, AUDUSD rests around 0.7575 TL support and may revisit the 0.7610 & 0.7650 resistance but a drop beneath the same can flash 0.7530 & 0.7500 on the chart. Additionally, NZDUSD aims for break the 0.6815 and mark 0.6770 with 0.6900 acting as nearby resistance while USDCAD took a U-turn from 1.2720 TL support and can again target 1.2855-60 region.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 17 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Finally the U.S. House of Representatives took a step closer to enact President Donald Trump’s dream tax-plan by supporting it with enough votes to escalate the bill towards the Senate on Thursday. As a result, the US Dollar managed to recover some of its latest losses but the EUR didn’t refrain to bend down as investors still fear for the Senate’s approval to the Trump’s Bill as it has its own version of the proposal and Republicans hold only small majority there. The GBP managed to register across the board rise due to European President for Brexit’s optimism surrounding the UK’s cessation process while the JPY adhered to profit-booking but the Gold kept being strong on US & US Geo-political concerns favoring the yellow-metal’s safe-haven demand. Moving on, AUD and NZD slowed their downside pace after China infused heavy liquidity into the market but the CAD strengthened a bit on Saudi Arabian Finance Minister’s favor for the need of global crude production-cut accord’s extension.

Even after disturbing its latest downturn on Thursday, the greenback couldn’t hold those gains for long as news concerning investigations into Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential election dragged the currency down on early-Friday. However, the EUR & GBP didn’t stop their advances but commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, dropped on New Zealand’s softer PPI & pessimism surrounding the Chinese demand going forward. Additionally, the JPY and Gold continued pleasing buyers whereas Crude softened on increasing US supply issue.

Moving towards the rest of the day releases, ECB President, Mario Draghi, is scheduled to speak at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress and the Canadian CPI, together with US housing market details, are up on economic calendar for publish. Also, the political front could keep entertaining investors with updates relating to US Special Counsel Robert Muller’s proceedings to handle the Russian meddling and how Senate perceives Trump’s tax-plan.

While ECB President is more likely to praise the regional economic status, which actually helped the EUR to rally in latest past, signal to the central bank’s rate-hike perception will be closely observed and reacted with spike in Euro. In case of economics, Canadian CPI could disappoint CAD Bulls by flashing 0.1% mark against 0.2% prior but US Building Permits & Housing Starts could again portray the strength reality sector with the former likely posting 1.25M against 1.23M prior and the later is expected to make 1.19M mark versus 1.13M earlier.

Hence, with the smaller line of economics and a bit tapered political pressure, markets might close the week by following pre-established moves; however, it’s a Friday and surprises always erupts around the same.

Technical Talk

Having failed to sustain the recent bounce from 50-day SMA, the USDJPY drops below the 112.65 support and may test 112.00 and the 111.75-70 SMA confluence with 112.65 & 113.30 acting as nearby resistances. Further, USDCAD continue respecting the upward slanting trend-line, at 1.2730 now, and may again challenge the 1.2780 while EURNZD had to clear the 1.7270-75 in order to extend its rally towards 1.7330 & 1.7390 with 1.7110 & 1.7050 being adjacent rest-points to observing during the pair’s pullback.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 20 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Although US House of Representatives managed to escalate the President’s dream tax-plan to the Senate, little acceptance from fellow republicans raised doubts over the future of such proposal during the vote in Senate where Republicans can’t risk more than two votes to remain on desk. Additionally, not so strong inflation and Retail Sales, coupled with latest news signaling further investigations of Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential election, dragged the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) down for one more week. With this, the EUR managed to extend its up-moves, which later gained support from hawkish comments of the ECB President, Mario Draghi, whereas GBP struggled between gains and losses on uncertainty concerning UK PM’s future and Brexit progress confronting with upbeat Jobs report and Retail Sales. Further, the JPY and Gold kept being investors’ favorite due to macro pessimism surrounding US tax-plan & British political plays while commodity currencies dipped on China’s soft data-points and recent efforts to streamline economic focus off from manufacturing to services. Moreover, the Crude prices registered first weekly decline in previous six after EIA projected increased supply and investors adhered to profit-booking ahead of this week’s global oil producers’ meet.

Even if the political tension between Spain & Catalonia didn’t gain much attention off-late, updates signaling German Chancellor’s, Angela Merkel’s, failure to form a coalition government dragged the EUR down during early Monday. As a result, the USD and GBP could recover some of their latest losses, which in-turn negatively affected the JPY and Gold prices. Additionally, energy traders were also calm at the start of the week as they doubt over the global producers’ ability to agree on the extension of cut beyond March 2018 during month-end meeting.

On the economic front, German PPI matched prior 0.3% figure and surpassed 0.2% forecast but couldn’t do much to help the regional currency which is already facing political backlash at Germany. However, ECB President, Mario Draghi, is scheduled to deliver testimony in front of the European parliament and may help the EUR by repeating his optimism for the regional economic growth. Though, any disappointment from the testimony, in the form of Draghi’s inability to convey region’s economic recovery and ECB’s future path, can have more negatives for the Euro.

For the rest of the globe, there are no major economic details scheduled for release but the political play at US, either concerning tax-plan or probe against Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential election, and at the UK, could keep entertain USD & GBP traders respectively. In case of commodity currencies, China’s another infusion of heavy liquidity raises questions regarding the strength of world’s largest industrial player and may negative affect the AUD, NZD and CAD. In all these plays, the JPY and Gold are likely to maintain their strength as investors run to risk-safety during such times of Geo-political downtime.

Technical Talk

EURUSD’s dip below 1.1755-50, coupled with latest negatives for the EUR, indicate brighter chances of the pair’s plunge to 1.1680-75 with 1.1720 acting as intermediate halt while an upside break of 1.1755 may again propel the quote 1.1810. Further, the USDJPY’s daily close below 50-day SMA level of 112.70 seems pulling the pair to 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence region of 111.70 while EURJPY is likely bouncing off from 131.25-20 support-region to 131.90 & 132.30 resistances.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 21 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

If we analyze yesterday’s up-move by the US Dollar Index (I.USDX), it can be known that lack of positivity at home isn’t an obstacle in case your rivals are suffering too. The same happened with the US Dollar on Monday when collapse of German coalition and ECB President Mario Draghi’s dovish testimony dragged the EUR down and rather helped the greenback to recover some of its latest losses. Further, the GBP also stretched its advances with renewed optimism concerning the Brexit progress whereas Gold and JPY dropped on USD’s strength. Moving on, the AUD, NZD and CAD all declined as recent pessimism at China and lack of any upbeat domestic details dragged those commodity currencies to south while Crude adhered to profit-booking after investors feared that rising US production might supersede global production-cut efforts.

During early Tuesday, traders refrain to change their minds due to lack of big releases while negative outcomes of Japan’s All Industries Activity Index and RBA meeting minutes did hurt JPY and AUD respectively. Additionally, latest news that present Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, denied holding any position once Mr. Jerome Powell acquires the office gave extra mile to Mr. Donald Trump in governing the Federal Reserve as he now has to assign his choice for one more vacant position of the central-bank policymaker which traders took as a positive sign for the USD.

Moving on, today’s economic calendar is likely to remain tepid and lack any major economic events/details. However, Canadian Wholesale Sales, US Existing Home Sales and public appearance of the Fed Chair, at the New York University Stern School of Business, could offer intermediate market moves.

Looking at the data-points, the Canadian Wholesale Sales may help the CAD to halt its downside with 0.6% mark against 0.5% prior while the Existing Home Sales from US could continue supporting the greenback’s advances with 5.42M versus 5.39M earlier. Further, Fed Chair isn’t expected to reveal any secret of the US central bank but can reveal her support for the December rate-hike and tighter monetary policy going forward, which may favor the USD to remain strong for the time being.

In case of politics, the Robert Muller’s investigation and talk regarding the tax-plan may entertain short-term USD traders while US President’s latest comment to levy more sanctions on the North Korea may acquire a heated response from the hermit kingdom and can help the JPY and Gold to reimburse their losses. Alike US, the UK is also struggling on political front and updates for Brexit are likely to be analyzed closely to predict GBP moves.

To sum up, lack of important details/events could keep restricting the market performance ahead of Thursday’s US Thanksgiving holiday but political waves at UK, US & Germany may not lose their importance to surprise everyone.

Technical Talk

Although 1.2820-25 acts as immediate barrier for the USDCAD to clear in order to aim for 1.2860, a short-term ascending trend-channel continue portraying brighter chances for the pair’s up-moves while 1.2780 seems nearby support to watch. Further, AUDUSD seems all set to meet the 0.7515 and the 0.7500 support while 0.7570 being adjacent resistance whereas EURGBP’s break of 0.8855 TL indicates the pair’s drop to 0.8820.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 22 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Even after witnessing better than forecast Existing Home Sales number and Fed Chair’s comments favoring December rate-hike, needless to mention about strong equity market performance, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) couldn’t sustain its earlier gains as President Donald Trump levied extra sanctions on North Korea and its trade partners, including three firms from China. With this, Geo-political tensions concerning US-North Korea war, which has been silent off-late, grabbed investor attention while worries related to tax-plan & Russian meddling in 2016 Presidential Election became stronger enough to fetch the greenback towards south.

On the other hand, the EUR managed to recover some of its losses piled after collapse of German coalition whereas GBP remained strong because of rise in CBI Industrial Order Expectations. Further, the JPY and Gold also benefited from increased safe-haven demand after news relating to North Korean sanction whereas AUD, NZD and CAD all took a U-turn from their earlier dips on profit-booking at commodity desk. Additionally, Crude prices again rose after supply disruptions from Canada to US and dip in API inventories pleased energy traders.

While Geo-political developments kept dominating the Tuesday’s trading sessions, there seemed less change of sentiment during early-Wednesday. However, market players are likely being cautious ahead of many important economic details/events that are scheduled to release, coupled with nearness to Thanksgiving and month-end square-ups. Notable amongst them are monetary policy meeting minutes from FOMC, UK’s Autumn Forecast Statement, US Durable Goods Orders and New Zealand’s quarterly Retail Sales.

If we observe latest monetary policy meeting by the FOMC, it didn’t offer any change to the Federal Funds Rate and conveyed the central-bank’s concern for Inflation while being optimistic for the Employment sector. As today’s minute statement would be the last before crucial December meeting, investors are likely to examine details of how policymakers perceive upcoming rate-hike and chances of monetary policy tightening going forward. At the data-front, US Durable Goods Orders may not please the greenback buyers as they are expected to flash 0.4% growth against 2.0% prior while New Zealand Retail Sales might also disappoint NZD optimists with their 0.4% mark compared to 2.0% earlier.

Hence, while FOMC minutes may have to offer strong support for the December hike and some more going-forward, the Durable Goods Orders should also register welcome figures to restore USD’s upside.

In case of the GBP, UK’s autumn statement will also release Budget for 2018 by the Finance Minister and the same is important for the Theresa May as she is struggling to maintain her power in the British economy. Mr. Hammond has a crucial task to balance the government spending amid weaker growth and please British people with tax & spending plans promised by May. So, any miscommunication or disappointment could have higher implication on the present government and may again drag the Pound towards south.

Technical Talk

GBPUSD again confronts the 50-day SMA level of 1.3260 that has been restricting the pair’s upside off-late. Should upbeat UK releases help the pair to clear 1.3260, it can rise to 1.3290 & 1.3320 whereas 1.3220 & 1.3180 seem nearby support to watch during pullback. NZDUSD is struggling with a fortnight old descending trend-line resistance of 0.6850, break of which could escalate its latest pullback recovery towards 0.6880 while 0.6800 & 0.6780 may act as immediate supports. At the end, EURCHF’s trading above the 1.1615 & the 1.1600 trend-line levels keep signaling its upside to 1.1665 & 1.1690.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 23 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Having witnessed magnified market moves due to various eco-politico factors around early-week, Thanksgiving Holiday and dearth of major economics might restrict the trade performance during rest of the week. However, headline Flash PMIs from EU, Germany & US, coupled with UK GDP’s second estimate and Canadian Retail Sales, could offer intermediate trade opportunities to investors. Additionally, political plays at US, UK & Germany are also likely to keep marking their presence.
Let us describe each one of them in detail.

What’s Wrong With The USD?

Even after pushing Mr. Trump’s dream tax-plan a step ahead towards being a law and witnessing not to disappointing Retail Sales and Inflation figures, the US Dollar failed to stop its prior week’s decline and registered another weekly loss. The reasons were Senate members’ show of dissatisfaction for Republican proposal and latest investigation into Trump administration’s role in alleged Russian meddling around 2016 Presidential Election. Though, USD wasn’t the only currency that became victim of negative political waves, the GBP was also badly affected, even after having good Retail Sales and Employment numbers, on the news that nearly 40 Tory members are planning to draft their stand-off against present UK PM. As a result, the EUR proved to be the only currency that had good economics and less of political disturbance, which was well portrayed in its north-run.

On the other hand, the JPY and Gold benefitted from Geo-political uncertainty but the AUD, NZD and CAD, majorly known as the commodity currencies, couldn’t manage to enjoy the greenback’s weakness due to China’s recent efforts to shift orientation towards services sector and softer data-points. Further, Crude prices also marked its first week of decline after EIA forecasted increased supply-glut and threats from US production remained stronger.

It’s Still Not Good For The Greenback

While collapse of German coalition triggered US Dollar’s profit-booking at the start of week, those moves couldn’t last long after the Chancellor tightened her belt to avoid another election and rather tried to persuade other parties to form coalition government, which in-turn helped the EUR to recover its losses afterwards. Moving on, the GBP was also up as fears of Theresa May’s immediate impeachment receded and UK budget sound quite helpful for Brexit, even if the growth forecast was downwardly revised. However, the USD remained weak as Durable Goods dropped, FOMC minutes refrained to hide policymakers’ fear from slowing inflation while confirming the need of one more rate-hike soon and on news that US President again threatened North Korea, in the form of latest sanctions, including three Chinese firms. Additionally, shutdown of Canadian pipeline towards US and depleting inventory helped Crude to post fresh two-year high whereas AUD, NZD and CAD also rose with improvement at commodity desk. At the end, JPY continued marching northwards but the Gold witnessed pullback.

What’s Next?

As the market comes to Thursday, the Thanksgiving Day, US and Japan bourses are closed and there are lesser economics from the rest of the globe to observe. Though, German & EU Flash PMIs, coupled with UK GDP’s Second estimate & Canadian Retail Sales, can entertain investors during the rest of the day while US Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI and German IFO Business Climate Index may push trade sentiments on Friday.

Looking at the economic details, both German & EU Flash Manufacturing PMIs are likely to weaken from their previous releases of 60.6 & 58.5 to 60.4 & 58.3 respectively but Services PMIs may help the buyers with 55.2 & 55.3 figures for Germany & EU compared to 54.7 & 55.00 respective priors. Further, gauge of business sentiment into the EU’s largest economy, German Ifo Business Climate, isn’t expected to cause much moves as the forecasts suggest 116.6 figure versus 116.7 earlier. Additionally, Canadian Retail Sales indicate +0.9% advance compared to -0.7% contraction while US Flash Manufacturing PMI could rise to 55.1 from 54.6 prior and the Flash Services PMI may please greenback buyers with 55.5 compared to 55.3 previous figure. At the end, UK’s Second Estimate GDP isn’t likely to change from 0.4% prelim estimate which was higher than the 0.3% growth achieved during earlier quarter.

Scheduled economic details aren’t indicating much for the near-term moves respective currencies but the EUR and CAD may adhere to profit-booking if stated details drop heavily while USD may recover its losses if Friday becomes a good-day with upbeat PMIs.

In case of politics, talks concerning the tax-plan might take the heat and may entertain the USD traders while German Chancellor’s ability to form new coalition government could help the EUR to extend its north-run. Further, GBP isn’t expected to register many moves due to no expected change in GDP and less political noise but the commodity currencies and safe-havens, namely JPY and Gold, can close the week on a positive side.

Technical Analysis

Sustained break of 1.1780 indicates the EURUSD’s up-moves to 1.1865-70 with 1.1700 acting as nearby support while GBPUSD again confronts the 1.3330-35 horizontal-area that holds the gate for the pair’s rally to 1.3410 and 1.3260 being adjacent rest. Further, USDJPY broke the 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence region, 111.70-75, but bounced off 111.00 and hence it’s range between 111.75 & 111.00 is likely to prevail. Moving on, USDCAD has 1.2660 to clear in order to meet 1.2600 with 1.2820 being immediate resistance while AUDUSD may find it hard to surpass 0.7640 to aim for 0.7710 with 0.7530 support-mark to watch and the NZDUSD needs to justify its strength by surpassing 0.6900 to target 0.6980 with 0.6840 & 0.6800 acting as nearby supports.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 24 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Although absence of US & Japanese traders confined Thursday’s market moves, sudden sell-off in Chinese equities, which many believed was result of on-going weakness in China’s bond market and government’s recent efforts to counter financial risk, entertained the investors’ fraternity. Though, USD wasn’t the one to benefit from it as pressure from FOMC minutes kept dragging the greenback towards south. On the other hand, the EUR managed to extend its north-run with Flash PMIs registering better than forecast numbers while GBP also grew a bit due to latest news indicating Theresa May’s readiness to extend her hands a bit more towards EU demands to let the proceeding go farther. Further, JPY & Gold kept being stronger on sustained safe-haven demands whereas AUD and NZD stretched their short-covering. Additionally, Crude prices flashed fresh two-year high on Keystone pipe-line shut but the CAD had to takes the losses due to slower than expected Retail Sales growth.

Coming to Friday, early-day moves were governed by the return of Japanese players who were left to take advantage of not so optimistic FOMC minutes. Also, sell-off in China and political risk concerning Theresa May’s inability to please EU policymakers when she meets them today in Brussels favored the JPY. On the economic front, narrowing deficit of New Zealand’s Trade Balance couldn’t help the NZD as imports hit record high while better than forecast Japanese Flash Manufacturing PMI added strength into the Yen.

Even if US markets are scheduled to open on Friday, after taking a day-off on Thursday, the session will be a shorter one and lack of big releases may keep offering lackluster trading hours to market players. However, German Ifo Business Climate Index and Flash readings of US Manufacturing & Services PMI might entertain investors while political developments at UK, EU & US can keep playing background music.

With the German Ifo mark likely to deviate less from its prior, the EUR may take a step back from its northward trajectory and expected improvement in US figures could help the greenback to recover some of its latest losses. However, the USD is still poised for another weekly loss unless any welcome surprise erupts to please the Bulls. In case of the GBP, Theresa May will try her best to get EU’s support for closing initial Brexit proposal by 2017 end to win investors’ confidence, which seems positive for the Pound; though, German, France and Spain are tought barriers for the British leader to conquer and may disappoint the Cable traders.

Technical Talk

With the EURUSD’s failure to clear 1.1855-60 horizontal-region, chances of its pullback to 1.1800 and then to the 100-day SMA level of 1.1760 become brighter with an upside break of 1.1860 likely fueling the pair towards 1.1910. Further, USDCHF’s recent U-turn from 0.9790 is less expected to sustain beyond the 0.9835-40 area and could fetch the pair to 0.9790 & 0.9770 re-tests. At the end, AUDCAD is another pair which lacks the strength to rise further as the 0.9710-15 and the 0.9745-55 horizontal-regions are still unbroken, which in-turn could drag the quote to 0.9680 & 0.9645 levels.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 27 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Holiday thinned calendar and lack of big releases couldn’t help the US Dollar to safeguard against another weekly loss as not so hawkish FOMC minutes, disappointing Durable Goods Orders and uncertainty concerning Trump’s tax-plan dragged the greenback gauge (I.USDX) towards posting third consecutive negative close on the weekly basis. On the other hand, the EUR managed to recover its early-week losses, based on the news of German coalition collapse, as upbeat PMIs and German Chancellor’s ability to progress faster in forming another coalition government propelled the regional currency. Further, the GBP also strengthened a bit on optimism concerning Brexit while JPY rallied on safe-haven demand but the Gold had to witness profit-booking due to its inability to surpass technical resistance. Moving on, AUD, NZD and CAD all benefited from weaker USD and absence of pessimistic data-points while ignoring a sudden plunge in Chinese equities around later days of the week. Additionally, Crude prices again proved dear to investors with surprise decline in US stockpiles and optimism surrounding this week’s OPEC & other Oil producers’ meet.

Having witnessed not so volatile market sessions during last-week, Monday started the present-week by supporting the USD on the hopes that US President, Donald Trump, will be able to garner enough support to get his bold tax-plan passed in the Senate. Also, news that holiday shopping in US rallied considerably favored the US Dollar to recover some of its latest losses on the hope of December rate-hike. As a result, commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD had to trim their gains even if Chinese Industrial Profit detail restored investor confidence into the world’s largest industrial player. Further, the Crude had to dip a bit on increased US rig counts whereas EUR, GBP and JPY remained majorly silent as they waited for important economic clues during the week.

Taking a look at the rest of the day’s economic schedule, US New Home Sales is the only thing that is up for release while speeches from FOMC members, namely Neel Kashkari & William Dudley, may get some attention to predict December rate-change. Moving on, political plays at Germany and efforts of US President to get his tax-plan passed in the Senate, coupled with Brexit related updates, can entertain investors’ fraternity.

While US New Home Sales are likely to flash softer figure, hawkish statements from FOMC members could help the greenback to extend its latest recovery. However, ability of German leader to form another coalition Government could negative affect the USD by supporting the EUR. Hence, with fewer data-points/events scheduled, chances of a softer start to the week are too high. Though, there are too many important details up for release during the rest of the week and the same could offer quite interesting market moves while going forward.

Technical Talk

With nearly two-month old downward slanting trend-line, at 0.6885 now, activating the NZDUSD’s pullback, chances of the pair’s drop to 0.6830 and 0.6785 are higher. Further, USDJPY struggles with 100-day & 200-day SMA confluence, around 111.60-70, to extend its latest U-turn towards 112.00 while failure to do so can fetch the quote to 111.00 re-test. At the end, EURCAD seems also failing to extend its north-run beyond “Rising-Wedge” resistance of 1.5185 and may revisit the 1.5075 support.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 28 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

On Monday, a decade high US New Home Sales and upbeat remarks by the to-be Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, helped the US Dollar to start the week on a positive note; though, uncertainty concerning Donald Trump’s tax-plan kept the greenback gains under check. The GBP registered noticeable moves as it initially rallied to eight-week high on optimism concerning Theresa May’s ability to please EU & fasten the Brexit process during mid-December meeting but the currency couldn’t sustain the gains after problems at Northern Ireland questioned the UK’s ability to please it’s political partner. Further, the EUR had to take the losses with no major details/events scheduled whereas JPY and Gold remained strong on prevailing political crisis at UK & US. Moving on, AUD and CAD had to liquidate some of their latest gains on worries about Chinese equities amid government’s run to safeguard financial market but the NZD strengthened with no major reasons except the likely month-end position-related squeeze. At the end, Crude prices dropped from two-year highs as speculations grew that expected increase in Russian Crude output and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran may not easily let the global oil producers to extend output-cut accord beyond March 2018.

While Monday offered shorter economic calendar, the Tuesday has comparatively longer-line of details/events that could entertain global traders. The same started giving the feel of active trading during early sessions when USD again adhered to downside as Mr. President, Donald Trump, is scheduled to hold talks with fellow republicans and democrats to gather support for his tax-plan and also to discuss federal spending plan to avoid government shutdown when the present line of credit expires around December 08. Additionally, Japan’s Kyodo News revealed that the nation found radio signals indicating a North Korean missile-launch after taking halt for few months, which in-turn dragged the JPY a bit down while AUD, NZD and CAD benefited from greenback’s weakness.

Moving forward, many central-bankers, namely BoE Governor, Fed’s to be Chair, BoC Governor and RBNZ, are all scheduled to appear at different stages before their locales and are likely to propel noticeable market moves. While heads of BoE & BoC might hesitate to convey any strong messages for GBP & CAD traders, Fed Chair and the RBNZ’s bi-annual Financial Stability report could become important for their respective currencies. At the economic front, US CB Consumer Confidence and Japanese Retail Sales are data-points that should be observed. Among them, US Consumer Confidence may please USD Bulls after latest private report suggested heavy shopping during holidays but the dip in Japanese Retail Sales may become a concern for the JPY buyers.

With Mr. Jerome Powell less likely to deviate from Janet Yellen’s path, his support for the monetary policy tightening could help the USD but Trump’s ability to garner enough support to back his optimistic tax-plan in Thursday’s Senate vote might keep dragging the greenback towards south. In case of the GBP, present political worries may supersede Mr. Carney’s optimism whereas NZD’s latest advance might be in trouble if the financial stability report continues supporting the present monetary policy amid new government’s uninvited pressure. In all these JPY and Gold are likely to be benefited but recent threats from North Korea may not allow the Japanese currency to enjoy it’s safe-haven status.

Technical Talk

USDCAD’s latest recovery may have to clear the 1.2785 trend-line resistance in order to meet 1.2820 & 1.2855, failing to which can fetch it back to 1.2710 & 1.2665. Further, AUDUSD’s inability to provide a daily closing beyond the 0.7615 TL resistance signals brighter chances of its pullback to 0.7570 & 0.7540 while break of 0.7615 may propel the quote towards 0.7650 & then the 200-day SMA level of 0.7700. Moreover, EURNZD’s U-turn from 1.7150-45 horizontal-line favors the pair’s recovery to 1.7230-40 and then to the 1.7280 but a downside clearance of 1.7145 can flash 1.7110 & 1.7070 on the chart.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 29 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

Be it US Republicans’ ability to push Trump’s tax-plan forward in Senate or the 17-year high Consumer Confidence, not to forget market-friendly speech by the to-be Fed Chair, the US Dollar had it all to post another daily positive closing on Tuesday. It all started with upbeat remarks of Jerome Powell, favoring December rate-hike, in his Senate confirmation hearing and 17-year high CB Consumer Confidence print; however, Bulls were more pleased when Senate Republicans managed to secure 12-11 votes for pushing Mr. Trump’s tax-plan for a full vote in the Senate during the week. Alike USD, the GBP was also buoyed by political news after Telegraph reported that UK & EU policymakers informally agreed to the divorce payment clause the Britain will be paying to the Union, which in-turn removes one major hurdle during the December-month Brexit meeting of the UK & EU leaders.

In case of the EUR, the regional currency had to take the loss due to absence of any major triggers whereas JPY and Gold also declined because of greenback’s strength cutting safe-haven support. Further, Commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, couldn’t confront the stronger USD as pessimism concerning China’s equity market and not so positive RBNZ Financial Stability Report dragged them down while Crude prices remained negative after a surprise increase in API stockpile raised barriers for smooth transition in the looming meet of OPEC & major oil producers.

While market was overtly positive for Republican leader’s ability to push forward tax-plan, news that North Korea test-fired another ICBM after nearly two-month of silence on Wednesday, that is capable of hitting the entire US, rejuvenated broader Geo-political risk. As a result, the USD started trimming some of its latest gains while Gold and JPY recovered from their recent lows; though, absence of strong response from US is something that tamed investors’ worries about the issue. Additionally, start of the global oil producers’ meeting in Vienna also became the concern for energy traders while softer mark of Japanese Retail Sales couldn’t drag the JPY towards south.

Moving forward, preliminary reading of US GDP, Pending Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventory are likely important data-points that could entertain market players while geo-political concerns relating to US tax-plan, government shutdown, North Korean threat and OPEC meet might rule the near-term sentiment.

Forecasts suggest a 3.3% mark of US GDP v/s 3.0% advance estimate, the 1.1% increase of Pending Home Sales against 0.0% prior and -2.5M Crude inventory draw compared to -1.9M earlier. Hence, economics are all favoring USD and Crude strength. However, Democrats’ skip of Spending plan discussion with President and expected outburst during the full vote on tax-plan during the week, coupled with stronger threat from North Korea, are the reasons that may curb the US Dollar’s upside. Furthermore, global oil-producers are largely expected to extend the production cut to 2018-end from March 2018, which seems already priced-in; though, an additional clause of holding a review meet in June 2018 to further extend the cuts may hurt the energy quotes. At the end, GBP’s surge shouldn’t be taken for granted as Theresa May is still struggling to hold her power at home and any news of fresh resignation of her party member, which has been a fashion off-late, could drag the Pound again towards south.

Hence, crucial data-points and geo-political developments at US, UK & Vienna will provide enough of entertainment to market-players.

Technical Talk

Even after successfully breaking the 1.3330-40 resistance-region, the GBPUSD has to clear the 1.3400 round-figure in order to aim for 1.3445-50 area whereas a downside break of 1.3330 can fetch the quote 1.3280-75 support-zone. Further, EURUSD’s latest pullback from 1.1825-30 may help the pair to challenge the 1.1900 round-figure while NZDJPY has to clear 77.30 to justify its strength in targeting 77.70 & 78.15 else it can revisit 76.30 & 76.00 support-levels as per the BPC formation.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Weekly Fundamental Dose: 30 – November – 2017

Hello Traders,

While US GDP & OPEC decisions are already out in the market, coupled with news about Republicans’ ability to put forward Trump’s tax-plan for a full vote in the Senate, Manufacturing PMIs from China, US & UK, together with EU CPI, Canadian GDP & Job numbers, are still left to play their roles during the rest of the week. Additionally, political moves concerning US tax-plan & UK’s Brexit proceedings may also offer intermediate trade moves to investors.

Let’s quickly go through these fundamental aspects to trade better.

Third Weekly Loss Of The Greenback Gauge

Last week was another unfortunate period for the US Dollar as the currency registered consecutive third negative weekly closing on disappointing Durable Goods Orders, not so upbeat FOMC minutes and uncertainties relating to US tax-plan. The same helped the EUR to recover some of its early-week losses and rally on the base of welcome PMI figures whereas GBP traders praised Theresa May’s efforts to get a better Brexit deal. Further, JPY remained favorite of risk-averse traders and the Crude benefited from decline in stockpile ahead of OPEC meeting but the Gold had to decline on profit-booking. Moving on, AUD, NZD and CAD managed to ignore a dip in Chinese equities as absence of negative data-points as home and weaker USD helped these commodity currencies.

Market Welcomed Republicans’ Efforts

Even if US President’s tax-plan is still to become a law, the Republican leader managed to cross two more barriers to put the proposal for a full vote in the senate and that was very much welcomed by global investors. Also, US Prelim GDP rallied by its quickest pace in three years and Consumer Confidence & housing market figures were quite positive, which in-turn helped the USD to recover some of its latest losses. However, greenback gains were kept being in check as some of the republicans are yet to sound positive for Mr. Trump’s tax-plan and the December 08 budget impasse is still hanging, failure of which may partially close the US government then after.

The EUR refrained to decline even with absence of big releases as German Chancellor seems closer to form another coalition after her previous tie-up collapsed whereas GBP rallied to early-October highs with one news-source posting that UK is ready to pay divorce bill to the EU that was considered to be one of the biggest hurdle for smooth Brexit and the Irish border issue is also about to solve. In case of commodity currencies, namely AUD, NZD and CAD, all remained weak due to disappointing data-points at home while Crude also seems failing to justify extension of global production-cut accord as policymakers opted to have another meeting in June to justify the extension. At the end, JPY and Gold both has to mark their south-run with broader market sentiment favoring risk-on mood.

During early Thursday, China’s official PMI managed to surpass forecast & prior and help the commodity currencies a bit whereas dip in Japanese Industrial Production & AU Government’s order to enquire big banks hurt the JPY and AUD respectively. Moreover, U.K. GfK consumer confidence slid to a four-month low but couldn’t hurt the GBP more as some of the EU members praised Theresa May’s recent efforts and sounded positive for their Monday’s meet in which initial Brexit plan may be outlined.

What Next?

Having passed by the aforementioned details/events, investors are likely to investigare more into the US tax-plan’s progress in the Senate during Thursday and Friday wherein the formal debate and vote of 100 members would be taken to make the proposal as law. Also, North Korea recently test-fired another ICBM, which the nation claimed can reach whole of US, after nearly 2 month of halt to its test-series. At the UK front, EU & UK policymakers are set to meet for a formal lunch on Monday wherein both the parties will discuss the fate of first Brexit proposal. In this case, the UK seems ready to pay for the divorce bill and may soften some of its previous border demands but the EU leaders, including that from Germany and France, are likely to ask for more and that may restrict the lunch from being an easy gathering.

At the economic front, Thursday carries, EU Flash CPI, US Chicago PMI & Japanese Inflation numbers while Friday’s UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Canadian GDP & Jobs report may entertain investors going forward.

Looking at the consensus, Chicago PMI indicates a 62.2 mark versus 66.2 previous and ISM Manufacturing points to a 58.4 number against 58.7 earlier whereas the EU Flash CPI may please EUR traders with 1.6% stat compared to 1.4% prior. Further, improvement in Japan’s National Core CPI to 0.8% from 0.7% prior, coupled with no change in the 2.8% Unemployment Rate, could add strength into the Japanese currency while increase in China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI to 51.2 from 51.00 can extend latest pullback in commodity basket. Additionally, Canadian GDP can strengthen CAD with +0.1% mark versus -0.1% earlier while the dip in Unemployment rate to 6.2% from 6.3% may also be welcome. However, less addition of the Employment Change, to 10.0K against 35.3K prior, may become a cause of worry for Loonie traders. At the end, UK Manufacturing PMI could become an additional strong support for the rising GBP with 56.6 expected mark against 56.3 prior

Hence, while US stats may keep offering rosy picture of the world’s largest economy, tax-plan concerns can restrict the greenback’s up-moves. As a result, the EUR and GBP might enjoy strong economic numbers whereas commodity basket could also take a U-turn with likely positive prints from China and Canada.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD recently respected an upward slanting TL support, at 1.1825 now, and can again challenge the 1.1950 resistance if USD weakens during the upcoming sessions. On the contrary, the GBP has already crossed 1.3450 mark and may aim for 1.3550 & 1.3620 with 1.3330 being near-term strong downside support. Further, USDJPY has to clear 112.30 to meet the 50-day SMA level of 112.80 else it can re-test the 111.70-60 area that comprises 100-day & 200-day SMA. Moving on, AUDUSD continued being pushed down by the 0.7590 TL and can rest around 0.7530-15 broad support-zone while NZDUSD’s reversal from 0.6945 TL signals it’s another drop towards 0.6780 with 0.6815 being intermediate halt. At the end, USDCAD surpassed the 1.2780 trend-line resistance and is well in direction to meet 1.2910-15 resistance region but overbought RSI could trigger the pair’s pullback to 1.2820.

Have a nice trading-day ……

[FxAnil]

Daily Fundamental Dose: 01 – December – 2017

Hello Traders,

Irrespective of lesser than expected Jobless Claims’ mark and upbeat Chicago PMI, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) dipped negative on the last-day of November as the Republican-led tax overhaul proposal struggled in the Senate. On the Thursday, when debate on the Republican bill started, all of the Democrats straight away registered their oppose by terming it a favor to wealthy corporate; however, Republicans managed to start the debate with opening window for some changes into the raw proposal, like trigger limit. However, the debate ran fierce after the expected effect of the tax-plan to budgetary-deficit was discussed and then it was suggested to re-start the debate the on Friday. Needless to mention that the final vote on the proposal wasn’t even discussed which in-turn could help the bill to become law.

With the USD taking a hit, the EUR managed to benefit from higher than previous reading of EU Flash CPI while the GBP rallied considerably after latest news signaled that EU policymakers are impressed with UK PM’s proposal for Brexit and Monday’s formal lunch may end well. Though, commodity currencies, like AUD, NZD and CAD, were not in a good shape due to continuous worries for China’s equity markets and new efforts to tame financial risk. Further, JPY and Gold both declined with rising equity markets and month-end flows triggering their profit-booking. Moving on, Crude prices remained volatile on global oil producers’ comment to have a June meet to further strengthen the production-cut accord while allowing the extension at present till the end of 2018.

As we start the new month on Friday, US Jobs report aren’t there to please momentum traders but on-going debate on the Tax-plan and the Senate vote could entertain investors. Additionally, UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing & Canada’s GDP & Job’s figures may offer intermediate moves to market-players.

During the start of the day, Japanese Inflation surpassed forecast but the figure is still not even half of what BoJ is planning to achieve, which in-turn further weakened the JPY. In case of commodities, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI spread disappointment with four-month low figure while USD remained under pressure because of tax-plan concerns.

While Canadian and UK details are likely to help respective currencies, US PMI may also follow the recent trend of posting welcome numbers. However, what everybody is looking at the moment is how Republicans can please Democrats to let their tax-plan pass the Senate vote where they hold small majority. If the Democrats continue refrain to respect the opposition’s plead, together with some of the Republicans’ vote against their party’s would-be most important achievement, there would be a big disappointment for the USD. Not only does the failure to get enough vote can hurt the USD, if the debate continues postponing the final vote on the issue, the greenback may start the month on a negative note. Hence, it is crucial to closely observe the U.S. Senate proceedings on tax-plan prior to taking any trade positions for the day.

Technical Talk

Having failed to break near-term TL resistance, USDCHF’s present moves are likely confined by the 50-day SMA level of 0.9850, which in-turn indicates the pair’s pullback to 0.9800 round-figure, comprising 200-day SMA. Further, the NZDUSD seems well set to revisit the 0.6800 and the 0.6770 support-marks while 0.6850 & 0.6910 may offer nearby resistance to the pair. At the end, NZDCAD’s inability to surpass the 0.8885 TL, followed by sustained closing below 50-day SMA level of 0.8845, points towards the pair’s further south-run to 0.8765 & 0.8745 support-levvels.

Have a nice trading-day ……