Daily Fundamental Dose

Trading Discussion News and Economy
125

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 31-October-2014[/B]

Hello traders,

After the final tapering by FOMC, the US Dollar gained another reason to accelerate its advance, this time it was higher than forecast Advance GDP estimations for Q3 2014. Market players acknowledged the end of monthly asset purchase program as a wise decision by FOMC after the GDP numbers and the greenback continued its rally.

Euro region currency remained weaker as German and Spanish fundamental details continued supporting the arguments that the region is expected to witness weaker days ahead. The NZD gained a bit after China suspended temporary import ban, levied on August 2013, on some of the dairy items from Auckland-based Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd. The Japanese Yen declined heavily as the Nikkei newspaper reported Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund will increase foreign investments to 40% of assets from 23% at present, signifying that the BoJ will be in need to introduce additional monetary stimulus. Moreover, the BoJ said it is likely to expand the monetary base by 80 trillion yen ($723 billion) a year from a previous 70 trillion yen. The BoJ Semiannual Outlook report also supported the JPY bears as it cited increased downside risk to the economy and uncertainty on long-term inflation expectations. The GfK NOP Ltd said that the household-sentiment index for the UK economy tested -2 level from -1 in September.

Today, market focus is likely to remain centered around the Euro region flash CPI number in order to determine near-term ECB moves. Should the number declines further, as expected concerning weaker economic details from the rest of the region, the ECB is likely to be forced to take additional monetary measure to tame deflationary pressure. However, there doesn’t prevail any important details from US today except Chicago PMI and Personal Income-Spending data. Should these details support recent optimism, the US Dollar is likely to regain its strength.

Have a great trading-day……

126

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 03-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the final tapering by the FOMC and above expectations US Advanced GDP number for the Q3 2014 helped the US Dollar to strengthen heavily against majority of its counterparts and the US Dollar Index registered its second weekly heads-up. The precious metal prices declined heavily towards four-year lows while the Japanese Yen plunged with the policy actions by BoJ.
Crucial economic events are scheduled to take place during the current week which can cause considerable volatility into the forex market. Major readings include US Job market numbers, RBA, ECB, BoE and important PMI readings from UK.

Even after the Japan markets are closed on Monday, during the early hours of the day remained active with Australian Building Approvals and Chinese PMI readings. The AUD remained strong even after the Building Approvals declined by -11% and the Services PMI reading from Chine fell behind expectations; however, the Final reading of HSBC Manufacturing PMI from china matched expectations of 50.4. For the rest of the day UK Manufacturing PMI and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI are likely to become headlines.

As the US economics have justified the final tapering, the US Dollar has regained its strength and is likely to maintain the same as the current global economic pessimism can support the strong economy. However, the US labor market numbers, scheduled during the later days of the week, can become decisive to determine near-term USD moves.

Have a great trading day……

127

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 04-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

The US Dollar Index (I.USDX) summed up with the positive gains for the first day of the week after upbeat ISM Manufacturing PMI supported speculations for near-term rate hike; the UK Manufacturing PMI also tested the three month high and supported the GBP. The Yen gained a bit of its lost strength as a result of pullback after the sharp decline.

Early today, Australian Retail Sales tested the highest level since March 2014 while the RBA left its monetary policy unchanged. The Australian Dollar gained considerably after the news. The Spanish Unemployment rate, UK Construction PMI and the Trade Balance details from US and Canada are some of the important details that can fuel volatility into the forex market during the rest of the day.

Considering the recent strength of the greenback, coupled with the fundamental support, it becomes wise to support the US Dollar buying rather than sitting on the other side; however, it should be borne in mind that the labor market reports on Friday are the crucial ones to determine near-term movement of the greenback.

Have a green-pips day……

128

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 05-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Yesterday marked another day of heavy forex market volatility; however, this time it wasn’t supporting the US Dollar as magnified trade deficit and the results of US midterm elections, wherein republics gained control of the Senate over the democrats, caused the greenback to register first negative closing bearing day of the week. The Euro also weakened as European Commission cut growth forecasts for the region while the Yen also weakened due to the comment by BoJ Governor that the monetary stimulus are likely to get intended economic effects and the central bank will not hesitate extend such measures.

Early today, NZD gained for the second day as the labor market numbers registered considerable strength during the last quarter. Moreover, the Canada’s dollar declined to a five-year low as crude oil prices, the main export earning of the economy, declined heavily after Saudi Arabia reduced prices to the U.S. in the face of soaring North American output. Also, the BOC Governor said that there is need for the monetary stimulus to curb the slack into the economy. The Gold fell toward the lowest level since 2010 as Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell yesterday to 738.8 metric tons, the lowest since September 2008.

Considering the recent financial market turn-oil, it would be better to wait till the crucial economic details, mainly US labor market numbers and the ECB, clears the view. However, I continue supporting the US Dollar buying as US is comparatively stronger than other developed world economies. Moreover, Today’s UK Services PMI is crucial for determining the near-term GBP moves while the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change can give early signal for the Friday’s NFP numbers and becomes important to fuel the forex market.

Have a pip-full tradingday……

129

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 06-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Having witnessed some pullback on Tuesday, upward journey of the US Dollar remained intact and the US Dollar Index closed at the highest level since June 2010 as ADP Employment Change rallied to four month high, supporting the speculation that the improvement in labor market can cause the Federal Reserve to hike interest soon. The Euro region currency remained in trouble ahead of the ECB meeting, scheduled for today. Japanese Yen continued declining heavily against most of its counterparts as loose monetary policy seemed favorable to the BoJ as per recently released minutes of the monetary policy meeting. The GBP fell to the lowest level in near a year against greenback as UK Services PMI slowed to 17 month low. Australia’s dollar fell to a four-year low as the ongoing rout of commodity price decline caused the iron ore, a key export for Australia, to declined to its cheapest level in more than five years. Moreover, the higher level of Unemployment also caused traders to ignore the upbeat employment change data and continue supporting the AUD weakness. Moreover, the Canadian maintained its heavy decline as BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz, kept supporting lose monetary policy and weaker CAD. Moreover, the plunge in Crude Oil prices caused additional weakness to the Loonie.

After Australian Labor market numbers and the BoJ Monetary policy meeting minutes, released early in the morning, market focus is likely to remain centered around important events out of UK, EU and Canadian details. Moreover, the press conference by ECB Governor, Mario Draghi, following the ECB Meeting results, gains more attention as the Draghi is more known for his bold statements that can fuel the volatility into the forex market.

To sum up, the US Dollar is strong becomes an understatement as improvements in world’s largest economy bolstered the reserve currency and it becomes wise to support the US Dollar buying; however, Friday’s labor market reports can become catalyst for determining near-term Us Dollar moves.

Have a great trading-day……

130

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 07-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the week coming to an end, we witnessed many important details, ranging from UK PMI to various central bankers meeting; however, none of them were capable enough to strengthen the respective currency against US Dollar. The greenback continued ruling the forex market ahead of the most crucial labor market numbers, scheduled to release later today. Yesterday, even with no major US details except US weekly Jobless Claims which fell behind the consensus and prior levels, the greenback witnessed being heavily strong as the rest of the fundamental details, especially the ECB meeting, punished rest of the currencies. The Euro declined heavily even after muted actions as the ECB President, Mario Draghi, kept supporting the loose monetary policy to strengthen the troubled economy. The UK currency couldn’t withstand the gains of manufacturing production and it also declined further together with the Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc. The Australian Dollar weakened as the RBA monetary policy statement, released early today, signaled that the economy is likely to remain subdued.

Two FOMC members, namely Mr. Powell and Mr. Mester signaled mixed cues regarding the early rate hike by Fed; however, both of them were quite positive about the recent Fed action, final tapering. With no major economic details to be published from the rest of the world, market sentiment are likely to be centered around the US labor market numbers, scheduled for release later today. Should the NFP number kept surpassing the yearly average of above 226K, together with the unemployment number being near 6.0%, the US Dollar can gain considerable strength; however, a surprise plunge into the NFP below 200K and/or the rise in Unemployment rate to above 6.5% can provide high negatives to the greenback.

To sum up, market players are advised not to take big orders ahead of the important detail; however, this doesn’t say to liquidate their US Dollar longs as the greenback seems fundamentally strong for the medium-term.

Have a great-day……

131

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 10-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

After witnessing heavy gains during the initial days of the last week, US Dollar tumbled after the labor market reports, published on Friday, as the lesser than yearly average of NFP caused market players to trim bets of early interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, early week gains didn’t restrict the greenback from concluding the week with heavy gains. The Euro remained on the negative side after ECB President said that the central bankers are committed towards curbing the deflationary pressure and won’t hesitate to expand their stimulus base. The UK currency remained sideways to negative with mixed economic data while the Japanese Yen continued plunging as the BoJ maintained its dovish tone to continue fueling the economy. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained later during the week as unexpected addition into the jobs numbers together with the unemployment rate’s drop to a six-year low helped the currency which declined heavily with crude oil prices’ plunge and the BoC’s communication to remain prepared for additional easing, if needed. Moreover, the geo-political crisis in Ukraine remained elevated after Ukrainian claims that Russia was expanding its military presence in rebel-held areas.

The current week has lesser economic indicators as compared to the last week; however, the week started with the Chinese CPI that met the expectations following the considerably good Trade Balance details, released later last week. The Australian
Dollar strengthened after the Chinese news.

During the rest of the day, there aren’t any big readings to follow except Canadian Housing Starts which can support CAD strength. To sum up, the recent plunge in the US Dollar isn’t a prolonged decline and is expected to reverse any time soon as the macro fundamentals remain positive. Hence, it becomes wise to support the US Dollar buying.

Have a great trading-day……

132

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 11-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

With no major economics to track and having US and Canadian holidays on Tuesday, market players seem extended their weekend with lesser participation on Monday. However, the US Dollar, which has lost considerable during last weekend, due to disappointing NFP, regained its strength and is likely to continue heading towards the gain zone. Rest of the currencies liquidated their gains against the greenback at later hours of yesterday and likely to maintain the same decline during the current day as no absence of important economic indicators coupled with the holidays at US and Canada can continue pushing the traders to behave as they did yesterday.

Looking at the economic calendar, yesterday’s Canadian Housing starts lagged behind expectations and prior level by being the lowest since April 2014 while the Australian NAB Business Confidence also fell behind its previous level. However, the plunge in the Home Price Index supported the AUD during early hours of the day.

For the rest of the day, market players are likely to remain dormant by enjoying the extended holidays; however, UK labor market reports and the BoE Inflation report, scheduled for tomorrow, can provide considerable movement to the pairs connected to GBP. For the remaining pairs, the USD is likely to regain its lost power and it would be better to look for USD buying as lower levels.

Have a great trading-day….

133

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 12-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even in the absence of any major economic updates, due to holidays observed by US, Canada and France, markets turned US Dollar averse and the greenback, as measured by US Dollar Index (I.USDX) registered second first daily closing of the week. Talks of the early election in Japan and a probable hold to another hike of Japanese Sales Tax, scheduled for December, weakened the Yen heavily as it tested seven years low against its US counterparts. The GBP remained strong ahead of today’s labor market numbers and inflation report release while the Aussie, CAD and NZD traded positively backed by the USD weakness.

During the early today, the bi-annual publication of RBNZ Financial Stability Report, even after not being so hawkish, supported the NZD as the Governor, signaled steps to help the domestic housing market and favored weaker NZD. Further, hike in Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment couldn’t help the AUD as Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment continued remaining below 100-level for consecutive ninth reading and signaled weakness for the currency.

For the rest of the day, UK Labor market numbers and the quarterly release of inflation report by BoE can become highlight of the day. Should the BoE continue signing its song for delaying the interest rate hike and discuss economic threat, the GBP can witness considerable weakness while the otherwise case makes it a bit stronger.

The US economic calendar remained idle during the day and the greenback movements is more likely to be driven by the performance of rest currencies. However, this doesn’t say that the greenback is likely to continue its weak days as the speech by FOMC member can provide near-term rate hike cues for the USD traders.

Have a successfulday……

134

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 13-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Yesterday’s big news, Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) by the BoE and UK labor market numbers proved be a drag for GBP as the QIR remained dovish and forecast slowing inflation in upcoming month together with the decline in growth numbers. Moreover, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney, in his speech following the report release, said that speculations concerning the delay in interest rate hike were right and he sees a downside risk to the inflation together with weaker economic growth. The job numbers remained mixed and could help the GBP as claimant count change remained higher than forecast and unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.0% falling behind the forecast of 5.9% figure. Moreover, the Average earnings rallied to 1.0% by being the inflation number for the first time since 2009.

The Yen continued its plunge against majority of its counterparts as speculations concerning early election by the Japanese PM remained higher while the hike EU Industrial Production, meeting 0.6% forecast, couldn’t help the Euro. The US Dollar gained on a closing basis even with no major releases as FOMC member supported the near-term rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

Early Today, the Australian dollar slid after a Reserve Bank official said policy makers haven’t ruled out intervention and there are brighter chances to continue witnessing weaker AUD while the Chinese Industrial Production fell unexpectedly to 7.7% against the forecast of registering no change at 8.0%. Moreover, New Zealand’s dollar registered a decline even after the Business NZ Manufacturing Index rose to August 2013 high. The Canadian Dollar rose even after the forecast for budget surplus numbers fell behind the February forecast.

For the rest of the day, there aren’t quite big numbers to watch-out except US jobless claims and Swiss PPI. Markets are likely to continue their early week trend with the improvement in US Dollar prices.
Have a successful-day……

135

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 14-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the absence of major economic details from US, the US Dollar continued witnessing consecutive ups and downs wherein yesterday was a weak day for the greenback as the Weekly Jobless Claims numbers tested the highest level in seven weeks. However, the greenback again initiated its up-run today ahead of the monthly retails sales numbers which are bearing optimistic forecasts.

News that the Japanese minister will hold a news conference next week to announce a delay in the sales-tax hike by Mainichi newspaper reported continued spurring JPY weakness which caused the USDJPY to test the highest level in nearly 7 years. Moreover, the newspaper also says that the Japanese PM will state his reasons for dissolving the parliament and holding snap election. The GBP continued witnessing the downtrend bearing the aftermath of pessimistic QIR by BoE while the AUD remained slightly on the positive side. The Canadian Dollar plunged heavily with their Finance Minister forecasting the dip in national revenue together with the shrink in fiscal surplus. The Euro region currency remained weaker with the German CPI confirming the forecasted plunge of -0.3%.

During the current day, GDP and CPI numbers from the Europe, the US Retail Sales together with the UoM Consumer Sentiment and Canadian Manufacturing Sales are likely to become eye-catchers. The Preliminary French GDP tested the highest level since February while the rest of the details are still awaited.

As the market is into the process of digesting all the happenings of recent times, it would be better to wait and watch before taking a confirmed trade. However, I continue supporting the USD strength.

Have a successful trading-day……

136

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 17-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with fewer economic details and the FOMC member’s signal for the necessity of near-term rate hike, the US Dollar concluded the with on the negative side as gauge of Inflation expectations, published by the University of Michigan plunged to 2.6%, the lowest reading since March 2009. The news fuelled speculations that the rate hike in unnecessary in recent future as the economy is still not capable of testing required inflation. The JPY tested seven year high on the speculation that the sales take hike will be postponed and the Japanese PM will announce the snap election. However, the PM is scheduled to hold a news conference tomorrow to express his intention to delay the sales-tax increase and dissolve the lower house as per Yomiuri newspaper. The GBP also lost considerable after the Inflation report sighted economic weakness.

Early today, the New Zealand Dollar and the JPY gained considerably as the New Zealand Retail Sales rallied by the highest pace since August 2013 while the plunge in Japanese economic growth numbers spurred safe haven demand of the currency. The Australian Dollar also rallied considerable as the nation completed a free trade deal with China, its biggest consumer. For the rest of the day, US Empire State Manufacturing Index and the testimony by ECB President are expected to drive forex market.

Considering the absence of the economic numbers and recent weakness of the US Dollar, it would be better to wait for the actual readings of the important economics, scheduled during the current week, to boost the US Dollar buying.

Have a great trading-day……

137

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 18-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even after witnessing weaker Manufacturing details, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production m/m, US Dollar closed the Monday with gains as rest of the global economic sentiments remained pessimistic. The Japanese Yen continued drifting lower as speculations concerning the PM will announce snap election and delay the sales tax hike by nearly 18 months continued weakening the national currency. The Euro remained weaker as the ECB President, in his testimony to European Parliament lawmakers, said that the central bank can consider buying sovereign-bonds in order to help the region come out of deflationary state. Moreover, the AUD and the NZD also witnessed negative closing against its US counterpart as the a result of pullback after more than a week’s rally.

During the day, the minutes of the recent RBA meeting again strengthened the AUD as it considered rising housing prices as a support to the economy; however, speech by the RBA Governor is still left for publishing. For the rest of the day, UK CPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and US PPI together with NAHB Housing Market index become important readings to take care of. Moreover, the expected announcement by the Japanese PM, during the late night, can become headline.

Should the UK & German numbers continue revealing weakness of their respective economies, the GBP & the Euro may extend their current decline; however, the US PPI also paves the way for determining inflationary pressure into the world’s largest economy and hence should be given high weight.

Hence, the eventful day continue to provide caution to the market players and it would be advisable to wait for the actual releases before jumping to a trade decision.

Have a great trading-day……

138

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 21-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

With economics to track market players remained busy throughout yesterday; however, the hawkish FOMC minutes, published on Wednesday morning, coupled with the improvement in Core CPI release and the Manufacturing and Housing numbers, US Dollar gained for one more day. UK Retail Sales heralded to May 2014 highs and continued supporting the GBP strength which was initiated after the BoE meeting minutes revealed that 2 MPC members continued supporting the rate change while EU PMIs legged behind expectations along with Germany’s numbers testing 50 level and spreading even more pessimism for the region. The Canadian Wholesale Sales tested July Highs and the JPY continued its plunge on the Japanese PM’s message of holding a lower house election next month.

Being the last day of the week, there are lesser economics to track for the global market players except the speech by ECB President and the CPI numbers from Canada. ECB President’s speech will be a key event for the day as market players are concerned about knowing what will the central bank leader says after the raft of weaker PMIs. Should he mention the readiness to add more stimulus to ECB’s kitty together with strong signals of the future actions, the Euro can be dragged down. Moreover, absence of news from US could continue supporting the US to maintain its initial strength.

Have a great trading-day……

139

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 24-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

With the FOMC meeting minutes supporting the decision of final tapering by signaling strength of the US economy to withstand global pessimism, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) completed the week with considerably high gains. The Euro region currency weakened heavily after the ECB President, in his speech on Friday, said that the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to support the falling inflation and the inflation expectations while the Japanese Yen continued its downturn with the PM’s signals for early election and a halt to sale tax hike. Further, the currencies of Australia and New Zealand also gained at the weekend as their largest consumer, China, cut the one-year lending rate by 0.4% to 5.6%, while the one-year deposit rate was lowered by 0.25% to 2.75 percent. The Canadian Dollar also gained considerable at the weekend as the Inflation numbers surpassed all the expectations and signaled a rate hike by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in its meeting on December 03. Also, the rise in oil prices provided additional support to the Canadian Dollar and the Ruble. Moreover, the plunge in the Swiss franc is likely to be defended as said by a policy maker.

During the current week, there are many important details that can become catalyst for the near-term movement of their respective currencies. Amongst them, GDP numbers from US and UK together with the European CPI Flash estimate are likely to take the center stage in fueling forex market volatility.

The Japanese markets are closed today due to the observance of Labor Thanksgiving Day while the German Ifo Business Climate, which is expected to decline for the seventh consecutive month, can create headlines. However, the US Dollar is expected to maintain its up-move ahead of the GDP numbers, scheduled for Tuesday release.

Have a great trading-day……

140

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 25-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even with no major releases out of the US, except Services PMI that plunged to the April lows, the US Dollar registered negative closing on the first day of the week as market players remained cautious ahead of the important readings, GDP & CB Consumer Confidence, scheduled for release later today. The Euro region currency remained sluggish, even after the German Business Confidence unexpectedly rose for the first time in seven months. The JPY remained weaker during the first day of the week while the NZD, GBP, AUD and CAD traded abruptly in the dearth of strong economics.

Early today, the minutes of the October BoJ meeting, which unexpectedly heightened asset purchase targets, released that conveyed some board members were not in support of such move. Moreover, the speech by BoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, strengthened JPY as it said that the BoJ is on a progression to achieve its 2.0% inflation target and the conversion of the deflation mindset has been steadily progressing. The decline in commodity prices kept hurting the currencies of New Zealand, Australia and the Canada.

To sum up, market sentiment is likely to be more or less silent ahead of the important releases out of US, UK and Canada. However, overall view supports the US Dollar strength should the GDP number rises above the forecast. Moreover, the UK Inflation hearings are likely to provide clear insights into the BoE’s next move and can fuel GBP pairs. Hence, it would be better to wait for the actual releases before entering a trade.

Have a great trading-day……

141

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 26-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Even after the Preliminary reading of the Q3 2014 US GDP surpassed market consensus, the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) declined for the second consecutive day on Tuesday as the official gauge of Consumer Confidence unexpectedly plunged from its highest level in seven years. Moreover, worries ahead of the Durable Goods orders, that carries expectations of registering slid for a third month, and the housing market numbers, scheduled to release later today, continued hurting the greenback during early hours of the day. The Euro region currency halted its decline as final GDP numbers from its largest economy signaled positive growth. The Australian Dollar (Aussie – AUD) kept declining as weaker Iron prices, its main export, together with the dovish comment from Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor pushed market players towards short in AUD. The NZD kept its decline continue as weaker inflation expectations caused worries that the nation will also head for extensive monetary easing. The CAD re-gained its strength as the Retail Sales numbers tested three month high; however, Core Retail Sales were lesser than the forecast and limited the up-move by the Canadian Dollar. The GBP remained sluggish with lack of cues.

As the US Markets will be closed tomorrow, due to Thanksgiving Day holiday, market players are likely to become active throughout today. Moreover, the important economic numbers, namely US Durable Goods Orders, Housing market numbers and UK GDP, are likely to dominate the forex market trading for the rest of the day.

To sum up, inability on the part of the US Dollar to strengthen even after the improved GDP numbers causes market players to think ahead of the important readings today. Should these numbers match their pessimistic forecasts, the greenback is more likely to extend its plunge. However, an improvement into the economic numbers can give chance to the US Dollar to reimburse its early week losses.

Have a great trading-day……

142

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 27-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Weaker economic numbers continued causing worries for the USD traders during the third day of the week as market players expect slow growth, backed by weaker numbers, in the Q4 2014. Yesterday, the Jobless Claims plunged to the highest level since early September while the Core Durable Goods Orders and the housing market numbers, namely New Home Sales and Pending Home Sales, fell behind expectations. The Euro remained sluggish as the ECB Vice-President, Vitor Constancio, signaled the start of quantitative easing as early as the Q1 2015. The GBP gained against majority of its counterparts by ignoring the weaker export and investment numbers as the GDP number remained stable at 0.7%. The Australian Dollar reversed during the later hours of yesterday as private capital expenditure unexpectedly increased. The NZD, CHF and the CAD also strengthened against majority of its counterparts.

US Markets are closed during the day due to Thanksgiving Holiday. Improved New Zealand Trade numbers and the Australian private capital expenditure supported respective currencies during the early hours of the day. During the rest of the day important German numbers, namely CPI, Unemployment Change and the GfK German Consumer Climate are likely to take the center stage of the market.

As the US market is closed after the weaker economic details yesterday, expect USD to suffer; however, German numbers can support the drop of EURUSD as there aren’t any other major details for the rest of the details.

Have a great trading-day……

143

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 28-November-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

On an otherwise quiet day, due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday, US Dollar secured its first positive closing of the week as pessimism at the rest of the global economies coupled with the OPEC meeting kept weakening rest of the currencies against the greenback. The Euro, even after witnessing improvement in German numbers, plunged heavily as the ECB President, in his speech said that the central bank is open to accept wide variety of stimulus as the inflation numbers from Germany and Spain continued signaling danger signs. The UK currency remained weaker while the commodity currencies remained weaker as the OPEC avoided a production cut and the oil prices plunged heavily. The Canadian Dollar ignored the effects of reduced deficit and weakened heavily. The CHF remained weaker ahead of the Sunday’s “GOLD” vote. The JPY weakened heavily as the data published early today showed Japan’s household spending continued declining and inflation slowed.

After important details from Japan and New Zealand have already being released, market players are likely concentrating on EU releases and CAD GDP number. However, major focus is likely to be centered around EU Flash CPI in order to determine ECB’s next move. Should the inflation gauge plunges further, the Euro becomes vulnerable to extend its decline while the uptick into the inflation numbers isn’t likely to support much to the troubled currency.

As the US Dollar has gain considerable strength on the holiday, market players are likely to continue supporting the greenback even with no major releases; however, one shouldn’t ignore the early week decline before taking a Long position.

Have a great trading-day……

144

[B]Daily Fundamental Dose: 1st- December-2014[/B]

Hello Traders,

Welcome to the new month of volatility into the Forex market that started with the Swiss referendum declining to the gold vote and resulting considerable weakness to the precious metal prices. Moreover, the Australia, second highest gold producer after China, also witness considerable weakness due to the decision as it denied the SNB’s need to restore 1500 tons of Gold within 5 years of time span. The US Dollar, even after gaining at the weekend, registered weekly losses due to heavy plunge in the last week start due to weaker economic numbers. The Euro region currency remained negative as the ECB President kept supporting loose monetary policy and the ECB meeting, scheduled during the week, is more likely to convey the same tactic to support the troubled region.

During the start of the busy week, Chinese official PMI number fell behind expectations while the HSBC gauge remained at the 50 level with no change as compared to previous release. Moreover, the Japanese Manufacturing number also plunged below its consensus.

Today, being the day of manufacturing releases from the global economies, majority of the readings signaled weakness while the rest, UK Manufacturing PMI and the US Manufacturing PMI & ISM Manufacturing PMI, is likely to continue testing the grounds. However, the US official numbers are expected to rise and can support the greenback which is likely to rally during the week with the optimistic forecasts for important numbers schedule for publish.

Besides the NFP, U.S. manufacturing PMI, trade balance, factory orders, ECB, RBA, BOC and BOE, UK manufacturing PMI, Australian GDP, Canadian labor market numbers, Germany’s factory orders, Canada’s trade balance, and UK services PMI are some of the important details that can continue fueling the global financial market during the current week.

Have a green pip trading day……