No trailing stops tonight, but I am putting entries up on all ten pairs I chart:
GBP/USD = 30/20
EUR/USD = 26/17
USD/CHF = 20/13
EUR/GBP = 14/9
GBP/JPY = 36/24
EUR/JPY = 29/19
USD/JPY = 17/11
AUD/JPY = 21/14
AUD/USD = 17/11
NZD/USD = 15/10
No trailing stops tonight, but I am putting entries up on all ten pairs I chart:
GBP/USD = 30/20
EUR/USD = 26/17
USD/CHF = 20/13
EUR/GBP = 14/9
GBP/JPY = 36/24
EUR/JPY = 29/19
USD/JPY = 17/11
AUD/JPY = 21/14
AUD/USD = 17/11
NZD/USD = 15/10
Ya I was thinking of making it a more discretionary system though still having the simple breakout entries. Instead with the exist I would look for nearest S/R and adjust my TP accordingly. This would make it harder to trade, but probably more profitable, and it would no longer be a set it and forget it system.
I use something similar Fozzy. My hi/low guiding indicator on any given TF chart is 2 LWMA high/ low and for the pivot point I use a PPMA (Pivot point moving average). See attached charts.
I trade when PA hits the 2 LWMA high/ lows or steps outside it on the daily/ weekly TF back towards center/ pivot (PPMA). I look to the daily and time my entry on the 1h TF chart (PPMA and tunnel change of direction). Then look to the 4h TF tunnel high/ low. If hit I then look to the daily tunnel high/ low. Is PA going all the way across the daily tunnel?
I will always enter and exit trades on the 1h TF chart. So I suppose I am really trading the 1h chart but with set ups coming from the daily or weekly high/ lows and trend direction taken from the angle of the PPMA on the daily.
Todays EU trade was easy to spot. PA way outside the weekly low and at the low on the daily. Just waited for PA to turn on the 1h and jumped on the long train.
Fozzy from your chart it apears you are looking to take the trade from the point the new candle develops (the close of one candle and opening of another). Then trade the shaded area (lower or upper). Am I correct in this asumption? If so how do you determine which way to trade?
PPMA Robert? Thatâs something new isnât it?
Prince, Whatâs the results on those 10 pair? Iâm still just focusing on GU
Iâm off all next week so the day job wonât interfere with the trading
Good morning Mike
The 2 LWMA high/ low I find excellent for picking the tops and bottoms of PA. But using 2 LWMA close does not give the center of the 2 LWMA high/ low but will bounce around within the 2 LWMA high/ low and give possible incorrect triggers. I am really only looking for something akin to the center line on a boll band. The PPMA gives the true center of PA within the high/ low tunnel.
I have added a white 2 LWMA close to my EU charts (red is 2 PPMA) so you can see what I mean.
Might need to expand to 200%.
EDIT: My hourly chart is looking increasingly like EU and GU are going to make further lows on New York open⌠any thoughts Mike?
Robert, I donât have ppma in my metatrader but put up a 2 period lwma based on median price (HL/2) and it comes out real close to your red line. Try it and see how it compares.
Iâd like to know your thought process. Iâm looking at weekly and monthly E/U on both, the price is at the bottom of the channel. On the daily the price is at top of channel so maybe it will head down.
On G/U same thing for the weekly and monthly but the daily is in the middle of the channel.
It does look like price is trending down on both though.
edit: I just realized you said hourly, I need to go back and look.
Hourly they both look good going down but I like EU better because itâs at the top channel on daily while GU is in the middle.
Well, thatâs enough anal rape for one day. Clearly, hi-lo will not work unless one allows more than 3 pips above or below the previous dayâs candle. Thereâs just too many false entry triggers, followed by fallbacks. Maybe a 5-pip cushion with only a 15-pip TP would be at least somewhat reliable, I donât know.
I really donât know about anything anymore and may be quitting forex today. I know it sounds like Iâm giving up and maybe I am. Six months of hard work every day and I still donât have a system that wins even 50% of the time. 70%? 80%? Are you fâing kidding me? Iâve yet to find a single forex trading system that wins even 50% of the time.
Anyway, enough despair. Here are the results as of 14:30 GMT when I decided enough forced sodomy for one day was enough:
GBP/USD = 30/20 not triggered
EUR/USD = 26/17 Long triggered, -20 pips*
USD/CHF = 20/13 Short triggered, -22 pips
EUR/GBP = 14/9 Long triggered, +9 pips
GBP/JPY = 36/24 not triggered
EUR/JPY = 29/19 Long triggered, -32 pips
USD/JPY = 17/11 not triggered
AUD/JPY = 21/14 Short triggered, -24 pips
AUD/USD = 17/11 Short triggered, +11 pips
NZD/USD = 15/10 not triggered
*I closed this trade manually when it was heading strongly the wrong way; price did eventually hit what would have been the original stop loss.
You shouldnât just give up :(. It takes quite a while to become successful at trading you just gotta stick with it.
Thatâs a lot of stuff to keep an eye on.
I can see how it would get frustrating.
What are the chances of taking just a couple of pairs, and concentrating on them alone?
It may help clear your head, and you might see things a bit differently.
Also, looking at those stop loss points, they seem very tight.
Normal price action will encompass those numbers easily.
Go back and look and see how many of those trades would have been successful if the stop had been increased.
You can build in a little more forgiveness to fewer trades.
Thatâs what I was about to say but you beat me to it.
I tried multiple pairs a couple times but decided to fall back to just GBP/USD on this hgh low idea.
Try this. drop back so smaller lots so a loss doesnât hurt so much, Trade this idea on GU only for two or three weeks with a much wider stop. Looking back at GU Iâve seen it retrace 60 pips a coulple times before hitting the TP
I havnât really kept good track of wins and losses since I experiment some with other ideas in the same account. But I think this weekend Iâll come up with a summary of wins and losses since I started this thread and see what it Looks like. Iâll post the results Sunday or Monday.
To put things in perspective itâs worth mentioning Iâve been at this a little over a year now and still not all that good at it really, despite getting excelent advice and tips and tutoring from the head trader of the worlds fourth largest interbank! R.C. How often does an opportunity like that come along? And he says it takes two years for his new hires to get good! And look at the environment they are in eight hours a day every day!
So even though I havnât made huge gains YET, just the fact Iâve lasted this long without wiping out my first account is encouraging.
So those are the things that keep me going, besides just being stubborn.
And despite being badmouthed by a button pusher that might make someone else give up, it only makes me more determined. And fortunately I had all my buttons removed a long time ago.
Robert,
Your 2 period LWMA high/low strat looks pretty interesting! When I first read what youâre doing with the daily high & low moving averages I didnât quite âget itâ. But after watching for a handful of days I think Iâm seeing how well it can work. Also see that youâve got to be sitting on your hands waiting and ready to pull the trigger when it sets up. Looks like there might be only 1 or 2 set ups per pair per week, but hopefully worth the wait!
Think Iâll try it next week, youâre always giving us great strats, thanks!
As for the the Hi Lo idea, I noticed that if you were to set the stop at the other end of the daily candle, youâd almost never get stopped out, and profits range greatly from 20-200 pips. Losses will occur, though very infrequent. But, when they do occur using a stop this large, they will wipe away all of your 20 pip gains. So if you do decide to use a stop like this youâd need to be a tad more greedy on your profits. I mentioned before that just closing the position at the end of the day would give you a average profit 2.8 times larger than the average loss. And on top of that youâd win 65-70% of the time. Still dont know why Iâm not testing this lol. Also, Have you thought about changing the hours of the âdayâ so you can catch different breakouts? Like I said, 4am Est provides a good breakout just on that sole candle. Maybe we should configure our days to start at 4am Est?
by âclosing at the end of dayâ you mean not useing a take profit at all?
for the 4:00 candle, since I set up my orders in the evening 6 or 7 pm eastern my time. then wouldnât that automatically account for a 4am break? Early morning is when the majority of these orders get triggered anyway. Or do you mean setting oders just outside the asian high and low rather than previous day high low usually set by London or NY.
Thanks for the kind words but I must stress that I most certainly donât walk on water!
I think there is a great deal of hype and bluster by most posters on BP. We seldom hear anything unless its "closed trade at âXâ plus pips, which kind of gives a distorted take on FX trading. [B]Merchantprince [/B]take heart its darn hard to consistantly make gains but with lots of practise it really can be done. Nothing worthwile ever came easy⌠right!
I have been trading for many years and just to show how hard I still find it. Over the weekend I will post an excel sheet of every trade I have made good and bad this year. Thats from 8th Feb (started late this year due to retirement and relocation). Thats 35 trading days and 182 trades. Iâll do some number crunching i.e. total number of win/ loss trades, average win/ loss trade in pips, max win/ loss trade in pips, etc. So take heart after that little lot I think you will be suprised at just how hard I find it.
For the 4 Est candle I mean simply take that one hours time period, and trade the breakout of that candles high or low. Just that lone candle. So instead of a daily breakout, your doing a breakout of that one candle. As for closing at the end of the day, Ya, no SL or TP. Maybe after some testing a hard SL or TP could be placed but for now none at all, except maybe an âOMG WTFâ SL
I trade with a 200 pip OMG SL on the daily. I close trades strictly and according to the high/ low indicators and TF chart I am trading⌠1h, 4h or day. I donât like setting an arbitory number of pips as a stop. The chart as it unfolds will tell you when to cut your losses if your disciplined.
My charts have this cool feature, I dont need stop losses. It just mails my loss to some Robert Carter guy, he takes care of them :p. lol im joking :D. I use a 30 pip stop. This is plenty large enough for the trades I take. My Sl are rarely hit because Ill most likey close them before they even get that bad.
Robert what do you think about what I said earlier about GU and EU ? Iâm still thinking a short on EU looks good but not so much on GU.