Daily Majors analysis by tradingforex.com

[James_McCabe]

16 July 2013 Tuesday Daily Major Pairs analysis
The start of this week, the market remain calm and full of tension waiting for Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies on Wednesday and Thursday, also focused on dozens earnings report. Last week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured the market by commenting Fed will gradually back away from their QE programs late this September while keeping interest to maintain low interest rate environment for long.
Today analysis:
EUR/USD

Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment will set sentiment for EUR/USD today, positive data suggest the German economy will improve in the second half of this year and this will limit ECB easing program which may drive Euro higher.
Based on technical analysis, currently EUR/USD breaks out of range and targeting for nearest resistance created last week, to reach 1.3200 EUR/USD need to clear out nearest resistance spanning from 1.3110 – 1.3120. We think with the current trend it is possible for EUR/USD to clear the high and targeting 1.3400, but if support created between 1.2990 – 1.30000 broken we might fall to 1.2880.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.3110, 1.3120, 1.3200
Support: 1.3000, 1.2990, 1.2930

GBP/USD

The UK CPI announcement will become the currency driver for today, with 3% forecasted numbers (Highest in 14 months) GBP/USD expected to appreciate in value if the actual value is higher than forecasted. GBP/USD expected to challenger previous high (1.5220) printed last week after Bernanke reassurance to slowly back away from QE program.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5220, 1.5258, 1.5345
Support: 1.5056, 1.5027, 1.5000

USD/CHF

After sharp reversal last week, USD/CHF found support at 0.9400; today we will watch core CPI data from US which expected to increase, currently price still inside the triangle range, if price closed below trend line, we will expect a test of low 0.9400. Close above the upper trend line will give a chance for USD/CHF to test last week high.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9500, 0.9540, 0.9580
Support: 0.9455, 0.9437, 0.9420

USD/CAD

Falling from high 1.0607, USD/CAD finds support at 1.036 today we will watch core CPI news from the US, we expect USD/CAD to test support again today and if support broken we will see further down move to the 1.0200 area.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support: 1.0388, 1.0361, 1.0325

AUD/USD

Rally in AUD/USD sparked by today RBA policy meeting where the policy maker hinting against further rate cut in August. Policy maker sees current policy already appropriate and suggesting additional easing is not necessary for short term.
We believe the AUD / USD has more room for appreciation, especially with the RBA announcement, nearest resistance 0.9126 might pause the movement if the price can break above 0.93040 – 0.93429 we think it is possible for AUD/USD to reach 0.9500.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9126, 0.9290, 0.9322
Support: 0.9125, 0.9040

[hawman]

Following the USD/CAD trade,
gaining around 30 pips, closed early because afraid the trade turn to loss again.
EUR/USD seems nice Long trade, but the trend is bearish, how far will we hold the position if we trade it?

[James_McCabe]

Following the USD/CAD trade,
gaining around 30 pips, closed early because afraid the trade turn to loss again.
EUR/USD seems nice Long trade, but the trend is bearish, how far will we hold the position if we trade it?

Hi Hawman,

Nice to hear about your profit at USD/CAD
Holding position can be done as long as price move in favor to our direction, but you might want to use trailing stop, avoiding winning trade turn into losing trade.

Wishing you success in your trade.

[James_McCabe]

17 July 2013 Wednesday Daily Major Pairs analysis
Wednesday will be the first day for Fed Chairman Bernanke to testify against congress, market participant will pay attention to hint or clues on Fed’s exit strategy. Most of today’s move will be driven by the anticipation of the news, so we recommend traders to wait and see first the result and the sentiment of the market.
Today analysis:
EUR/USD

Yesterday ZEW data was not good for Germany, but ZEW data release for Eurozone was encouraging which sparked a rally in EUR/USD. Getting near to last week resistance at 1.3200, we favor long position, if the price can go above 1.3230 we expect EUR/USD to challenge 1.3320 and reach long term target at 1.3400.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3230, 1.3320
Support: 1.3120, 1.3100, 1.3075

GBP/USD

Claimant Count Change and Bank vote for asset purchase also rates will be important news to watch today. We think there won’t be much change in votes, MPC member will vote for no rate change and no change to the asset purchase facility. For claimant count or unemployment benefit claim change, the forecasted number was -7.5k compared to previous -8.6k, less people who apply for unemployment benefit will boost Poundsterling.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5167, 1.5220, 1.5258, 1.5345
Support: 1.5080, 1.5056, 1.5027, 1.5000

USD/CHF

Broken triangle signaled more weakness in USD/CHF, yesterday price successfully moved down below support and we think there is more room for bear 0.9420 can be a good place to short form with a target around 0.9328 – 0.9340. Just a reminder, today’s news might change direction of the trend.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9420, 0.9455, 0.9475
Support: 0.9342, 0.9328, 0.9276

USD/CAD

Today’s highlight is the rate announcement, BOC expected to keep the rate steady at 1% while maintaining “Hiking” bias, this condition spell uncertainty in the market and rate hike will send USD/CAD down.
Moving down after touching resistance, USD/CAD fell to support level, assessing the possibility we favor USD/CAD to break support when the news release tonight, but we would want to be careful and if the price go higher than 1.0430 then we will change our outlook to bullish again.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support: 1.0388, 1.0361, 1.0325

AUD/USD

AUD/USD will wait for USD side now, RBA this week might set the trend for AUD/USD several weeks forward, right now AUD/USD will try to go above 0.9323, if price successfully go above that level, we have a long term target of 0.9495 – 0.9530. Maintaining same outlook as yesterday, we favor Long position.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9290, 0.9322, 0.9490
Support: 0.9216, 0.9200, 0.9125

[hawman]

Have another trade that is end in profit while I go out,

Really unfortunate UCAD Miss by 10 point and reverse to hit my auto trail, but profit is profit.
A/U really turned when touch 0.9290 lucky I placed order at 0.9286 to anticipate the spread.

[James_McCabe]

18 July 2013 Thursday Daily Major Pairs analysis

Today market will wait for the final day of Bernanke Testimony, in Yesterday testimony, Bernanke outlined The Fed’s asset purchases “are by no means on a preset course” and could even be expanded should economic conditions warrant, he said in his policy address. Dollar falls after this remark and gaining ground again in Asian session. Investor seems to take this speech as the positive signal Fed will continue their asset purchase program with no sets timeline. Later after the speech we have Beige books release, data released indicating modest to moderate rate in June and early July.
Today analysis:

EUR/USD

EUR/USD stuck at 1.3160 and cannot close above the resistance and currently moving lower, as long as the price not making lower low or closing below 1.3000 there is chance price can go higher to challenge 1.3200, short term LONG position can be taken at 1.3060 – 1.3070 if price visit that level.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.3160, 1.3200, 1.3230, 1.3320
Support: 1.3075, 1.3060

GBP/USD

Strong claimant count change and changes in MPC member vote bring GBP/USD up and hit the supply level. After last night speech by Bernanke and release of news, we see currently GBP/USD is searching for footing to challenge supply again, a clear break above 1.5300 will change medium trend to bullish.
Retail sales news will be important news we watch aside from Bernanke second day speech, 1.5170 and 1.5120 are place to look for LONG.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5220, 1.5258, 1.5345
Support: 1.5120, 1.5080, 1.5056, 1.5027, 1.5000

USD/CHF

Falling below the support, USD/CHF is making a lower low for short term trend, 0.9450 – 0.9480 will cap the movement of USD/CHF, if price rejected from this level we can expect bear to get into the market and bring a test to low, 0.9330 - 0.9340 is an area we will look for the bull.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9450, 0.9455, 0.9475
Support: 0.9400, 0.9380, 0.9328, 0.9276

USD/CAD

Successful bounce at support after BOC announcement yesterday, Poloz said BOC won’t cut rates as long as economy remain fragile and inflation stays low. There was hawkish remark that BOC will increase the rate but that is still far away. We think USD/CAD will move into range for now from 1.0360 – 1.0430. Breaking upper range will lead USD/CAD to 1.0500, breaking lower range will open chance to go to 1.0210. Trading in the range is our preference for today.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support: 1.0388, 1.0361, 1.0325

AUD/USD

Went up, but not able to create a higher high in 4 hour chart, in the chart we can see previous high is getting lower. 0.9140 will be nearest support where we can place LONG position with a tight stop. If there is another try to the high and no higher high created, then we can expect AUD/USD to go down maybe taking out a demand level that already tried several times since early July.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9290, 0.9322, 0.9490
Support: 0.9140, 0.9095, 0.9040

[James_McCabe]

19 July 2013 Friday Daily Major Pairs analysis

Federal reserve Ben Bernanke said it was too soon for the fed to begin tapering in September, back to first outlook where the fed had target 2% for inflation and 5.5% for unemployment level. Today session in Asian market started with bearish sentiment and dollar also weakening versus all major pairs after dovish speech from Bernanke.

Today analysis:

EUR/USD

After correction yesterday anticipating Bernanke testimony, EUR/USD bounced again and trying to challenge 1.3160. Still with the same outlook as yesterday, we will expect EUR/USD to cross above 1.3160 and reaching supply at 1.3200 making pullback to 1.3160 and continue trending up. Other scenario we think possible is the price turn down at 1.3160 and go to 1.3000 continuing downtrend (See blue arrow).

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.3160, 1.3200, 1.3230, 1.3320
Support: 1.3075, 1.3060, 1.30000

GBP/USD

Hanging at supply area 1.5225 – 1.5260, GBP/USD looks calmly eating supply present at the level. We think it is possible for GBP/USD to continue the uptrend with current momentum. Waiting for a break and retracement for entry might be the best strategy to do. Failure to break the resistance will lead to 1.5170 test.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5220, 1.5258, 1.5345
Support: 1.5170, 1.5120, 1.5100

USD/CHF

Price failed in first attempt to go above supply, strong rejection at supply lead us to think the newest formed demand area will be broken. Placing short at this level might be working short term as we are approaching demand level break below the demand level will lead USD/CHF to 0.9340.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9440, 0.9455, 0.9475
Support: 0.9400, 0.9380, 0.9328, 0.9276

USD/CAD

Yesterday bounce short lived, USD/CAD cannot make higher high and market decided to brought it lower, currently back to demand level and this is the third test. We think sooner or later price will break away from current range created. Placing long with tight stop is good idea, if price break below the range then wait for retracement for higher odds entry.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0388, 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support: 1.0361, 1.0325

AUD/USD

AUD/USD found support at 0.9140, higher low was formed, what we need is higher high above 0.9300, if price can go above that level, we will have medium term bullish trend. For now making entry near 0.9140 with tight stop is good idea targeting 0.9220 – 0.9225 as first target.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9220, 0.9290, 0.9322, 0.9490
Support: 0.9140, 0.9095, 0.9040

[James_McCabe]

22 July 2013 Monday Daily Major Pairs analysis by tradingforex.com
Last week market had focused on news releases from the fed and mostly the fed sounded dovish also said no preset timeline for fed bond purchase. This remark sent the dollar to fall against its counterpart. Today important news, existing home sales from the USA will give an outlook on housing condition in the USA.
Today analysis:
EUR/USD

Moving to resistance in Asian session today, EUR/USD looks bullish and have the possibility to break resistance. We favor the scenario challenging 1.3200 again in this week, but a close below 1.3065 will cancel the scenario and change the outlook bearish again.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.3160, 1.3200, 1.3230, 1.3320
Support: 1.3075, 1.3060, 1.30000

GBP/USD

Steadily moving above high created last week on Claimant count change and MCP vote news, GBP/USD currently has more upside chance to reach 1.5345, a close below 1.5170 will cancel current trend and will open the way to 1.5120
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5300, 1.5345, 1.5400
Support: 1.5258, 1.5170, 1.5120, 1.5100

USD/CHF

Further correction in the US dollar index sent USD/CHF once again to demand level, this is the third time demand being challenged, if demand gives way then we will see price touching 0.9340 in the future.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9400, 0.9440, 0.9455, 0.9475
Support: 0.9380, 0.9340, 0.9328, 0.9276

USD/CAD

Still moving in the range created, but it seems price in critical level entering London market, USD/CAD seems will move down further and close below demand area. A close above 1.0440 will continue the bullish trend in USD/CAD. If price close below 1.0135, long term trend will be changed to bearish.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0388, 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support:1.0325, 1.0285, 1.027, 1.0210

AUD/USD

Hanging at resistance we drew last week, AUD/USD seems trying really hard to create higher low and higher high, we favor the bull and think this resistance will be broken in the near future. Bull will need close above 0.9295 to change short – medium term trend and open chance to go to 0.9500.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9220, 0.9290, 0.9322, 0.9490
Support: 0.9140, 0.9095, 0.9040

[James_McCabe]

23 July 2013 Tuesday Daily Major Pairs analysis by tradingforex.com

Monday quiet session with less major news in the market except existing home sales from US market that missed the forecast, coming out in 5.08M vs. expected 5.27 drove the dollar down further. Today there is no major news from the Euro zone and US market, the market will watch the trade balance news from Japan and CPI news from Australia.

Today analysis:
EUR/USD

After closing above the resistance, EUR/USD keep moving up and challenge 1.3200, working scenario was the red arrow where we expect EUR/USD go to 1.3200 consolidate and later continue moving up above the strong supply area. Currently buy on weakness is preferred strategy, 1.3160 will become first support, unable to maintain the support will open room for 1.3090 - 1.3110.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance:, 1.3200, 1.3230, 1.3320
Support: 1.3160, 1.3110, 1.3090

GBP/USD

Successfully thrusting above resistance, GBP/USD show potential to go up further, we have target of 1.5500 for this correction, currently near supply are 1.5400 - .15420. We expect price decline after touching this area. Long position best taken from 1.5290 – 1.5300, 1.5345 can be watched to take short term Long.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5490
Support: 1.5345, 1.5300, 1.5200

USD/CHF

Making lower low and lower high, USD/CHF still in correction phase, we prefer to short every retracement to supply level and taking long position when reaching stronger demand area. 0.9380 - 0.9400 will cap bullish movement for now, selling at that level will prove to be high odds trade.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9380, 0.9400, 0.9440, 0.9455, 0.9475
Support: 0.9340, 0.9328, 0.9276

USD/CAD

USD/CAD barely able to defend the low of last swing low, London session creating lower low and it seems price will finally continue bearish movement towards 1.027 - 1.0285. Taking Long position at that level might work for short term.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0388, 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support: 1.0325, 1.0285, 1.027, 1.0210

AUD/USD

Getting near supply level, AUD/USD still not making higher high, if no higher high printed, market will take this as sign of weakness and no buyer in the market. Waiting for a close above the supply area and buy the retracement might be the best idea.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9290, 0.9322, 0.9490
Support: 0.9220, 0.9140, 0.9095, 0.9040

[James_McCabe]

24 July 2013 Wednesday Daily Major Pairs analysis by tradingforex.com
Euro zone flash PMI is the major headline for today Euro session; forecasted numbers expected to show improvement in manufacturing and will boost ECB policy. Later in US session New Home Sales figures will tell us the housing situation in the USA, previously May and June number came out better than expected, strong number will boost the dollar.

Today analysis:
EUR/USD

Continuing its bullish movement, EUR/USD created higher high yesterday and confirm further strength. We prefer to buy when a retracement happens, targeting 1.3300 – 1.3320. Support currently present at 1.3160, a close below support will open the way to 1.3090 - 1.3110.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3320
Support: 1.3200, 1.3160, 1.3110, 1.3090

GBP/USD

Nothing to stop GBP/USD to reach target level 1.5400 – 1.5420 yet, price bounced at 1.5345 today, we expect GBP/USD to reach the target, a close below 1.5345 will open the way to 1.5275 - 1.5300 which is a good place to take a long position.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5490
Support: 1.5345, 1.5300, 1.5200

USD/CHF

Although price keeps moving lower and lower, yesterday we didn’t see a lower low created in USD/CHF, demand level span from 0.9330 – 0.9340, if this level broken then 0.9260 – 0.9280 is possible target and potential place for long term bull enter the market.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9380, 0.9400, 0.9440, 0.9455, 0.9475
Support: 0.9340, 0.9328, 0.9276

USD/CAD

Fallen below support, USD/CAD created bases at 1.0280 and price seems trying to move near the broken support. Short position can be taken if the price reaches 1.0300 – 1.0320.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0325, 1.0388, 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support:1.0285, 1.027, 1.0210

AUD/USD

A higher high printed yesterday and bulls might cheer for this, but the price never closed above 0.9300 in the H4 chart which lead us to think strong seller present in the market. Down from the top and candle closed as bearish engulfing signaled bear was in control, we prefer to wait at the demand level around 0.9200 - 0.9220 to place long position.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9290, 0.9322, 0.9490
Support: 0.9220, 0.9140, 0.9095, 0.9040

[James_McCabe]

25 July 2013 Thursday Daily Major Pairs analysis by tradingforex.com
Good data from US housing market last night boosted the dollar, most dollar pairs weaken during London and US session and continue weakness near the close of US markets. With all of the news, a market currently consolidating and waiting for clearer view.
Traders will watch three major news today, the news are:

1. German IFO business climate
2. GDP data from England
3. Unemployment claims from the US

Today analysis:
EUR/USD

Little correction happen at supply level, the price came down and found support at 1.3170 – 1.3190, the correction is natural and we think the short term trend still bullish with no lower low created. Today’s news announcement will give a clearer view for EUR/USD, will it break the supply level or rejected hard at supply level and go lower?

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.3230, 1.3300, 1.3320
Support: 1.3200, 1.3160, 1.3110, 1.3090

GBP/USD

Short correction happened near supply level, GBP/USD found support at 1.5270 - 1.5290. We still expect GBP/USD to go higher, but today GDP news will weight in the market and it is important to gauge market reaction to the GDP news.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5345, 1.5400, 1.5420, 1.5490
Support: 1.5300, 1.5270, 1.5200

USD/CHF

Retrying supply level, USD/CHF yesterday couldn’t printed higher high which gives us confidence this pair still have a chance to go lower. A close above 0.9410 will cancel bearish outlook and might drive prices higher to 0.9450.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9380, 0.9400, 0.9440, 0.9455, 0.9475
Support: 0.9340, 0.9328, 0.9276

USD/CAD

Moving back to broken support, USD/CAD bear came back and drive price lower, the bear will need lower low below 1.0260, bull will need a close above 1.0330 to stop selling pressure. We expect prices will continue making lower low and lower high.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0325, 1.0388, 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support: 1.0285, 1.027, 1.0210

AUD/USD

Strong sellers came in the resistance and pushed prices lower below the support level we expect, higher high created but not strong confirmation with no close above the supply level. Floating above demand level, we think this is the best place to buy with good risk and reward.

Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9200, 0.9290, 0.9322, 0.9490
Support: 0.9140, 0.9095, 0.9040