16 July 2013 Tuesday Daily Major Pairs analysis
The start of this week, the market remain calm and full of tension waiting for Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies on Wednesday and Thursday, also focused on dozens earnings report. Last week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured the market by commenting Fed will gradually back away from their QE programs late this September while keeping interest to maintain low interest rate environment for long.
Today analysis:
EUR/USD
Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment will set sentiment for EUR/USD today, positive data suggest the German economy will improve in the second half of this year and this will limit ECB easing program which may drive Euro higher.
Based on technical analysis, currently EUR/USD breaks out of range and targeting for nearest resistance created last week, to reach 1.3200 EUR/USD need to clear out nearest resistance spanning from 1.3110 – 1.3120. We think with the current trend it is possible for EUR/USD to clear the high and targeting 1.3400, but if support created between 1.2990 – 1.30000 broken we might fall to 1.2880.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.3110, 1.3120, 1.3200
Support: 1.3000, 1.2990, 1.2930
GBP/USD
The UK CPI announcement will become the currency driver for today, with 3% forecasted numbers (Highest in 14 months) GBP/USD expected to appreciate in value if the actual value is higher than forecasted. GBP/USD expected to challenger previous high (1.5220) printed last week after Bernanke reassurance to slowly back away from QE program.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.5220, 1.5258, 1.5345
Support: 1.5056, 1.5027, 1.5000
USD/CHF
After sharp reversal last week, USD/CHF found support at 0.9400; today we will watch core CPI data from US which expected to increase, currently price still inside the triangle range, if price closed below trend line, we will expect a test of low 0.9400. Close above the upper trend line will give a chance for USD/CHF to test last week high.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9500, 0.9540, 0.9580
Support: 0.9455, 0.9437, 0.9420
USD/CAD
Falling from high 1.0607, USD/CAD finds support at 1.036 today we will watch core CPI news from the US, we expect USD/CAD to test support again today and if support broken we will see further down move to the 1.0200 area.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 1.0430, 1.0493, 1.0517
Support: 1.0388, 1.0361, 1.0325
AUD/USD
Rally in AUD/USD sparked by today RBA policy meeting where the policy maker hinting against further rate cut in August. Policy maker sees current policy already appropriate and suggesting additional easing is not necessary for short term.
We believe the AUD / USD has more room for appreciation, especially with the RBA announcement, nearest resistance 0.9126 might pause the movement if the price can break above 0.93040 – 0.93429 we think it is possible for AUD/USD to reach 0.9500.
Today important level to watch:
Resistance: 0.9126, 0.9290, 0.9322
Support: 0.9125, 0.9040