Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

Commercial Content Analysts
261

EUR/USD Could Correct Lower While USD/JPY Starts Fresh Increase


EUR/USD is correcting lower and trading below 1.0820. USD/JPY could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above the 130.80 resistance.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY

· The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.0870 resistance zone.

· There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.0800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

· USD/JPY is attempting a fresh increase above the 130.00 support zone.

· There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 129.20 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the Euro found support near the 1.0700 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a steady upward move above the 1.0750 and 1.0800 resistance levels.

There was a clear increase above the 1.0820 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed towards the 1.0850 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.0874 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting gains.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

There was a move below the 1.0820 support zone. The bears pushed the pair below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0730 swing low to 1.0874 high.

Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.0800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair is now showing bearish signs near 1.0785.

It is consolidating near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.0730 swing low to 1.0874 high. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.0775 level. The first major support is near the 1.0750 level.

The main support sits near the 1.0720 zone, below which the pair could start a major decline. In the stated case, the pair might dive towards the 1.0650 support zone.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0820 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0850 level. An upside break above 1.0850 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might visit 1.0920. Any more gains might send the pair towards 1.0980.
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Disclaimer: This Forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as Financial Advice.

262

The Davos dampener: Markets stagnant on WEF discussions

The annual World Economic Forum conference is well under way this week, and as can perhaps be expected, the debates taking place at the event, which is being held in its usual location of Davos, Switzerland, are having an effect on the global markets.

The World Economic Forum, often referred to by its acronym WEF, is well known to polarize opinions.

There are some who view it as a meeting of the global elite, who convene to discuss the planned agendas which in some cases are viewed as anti-business or anti-free market by dissenters, and there are those who consider it an important platform to address global matters on how the business world interacts with overall society and nature.

For this reason, the discussions taking place at the annual WEF conference are being reported widely by global media and having an effect on the markets.

It is common for high profile celebrities who attend the WEF annual conference to voice their opinions on fashionable issues such as the environment, or distribution of wealth, and on that subject, it was reported yesterday that approximately 200 members of the super-rich global elite, one of which was Disney heiress Abigail Disney, explained that they are calling on governments around the world to “tax us, the ultra rich, now” in order to help billions of people struggling with cost of living crisis.

This self-inflicted attempt to remove wealth from the coffers of some of the highest generators of income in the world is a way of clearly reinforcing a widely held opinion that the WEF conference is attended by many very wealthy individuals whose viewpoint favors removing their own and other peoples’ wealth and distributing it, giving rise to a perception that it has socialist overtones.

On the agenda for discussion was the slow economic growth in western markets, and the ongoing geopolitical discourse between the Western nations and Russia and China.

On the subject of China’s economy, it has grown just 3% in the past year, marking 2022 as the slowest growth for the Chinese economy in many years. Citi Group’s chief executive Jane Fraser told a panel at the WEF annual meeting today that it is a positive step that China’s economy is reopening.

The draconian lockdowns have paralized China’s economy in the eyes of the outside world, however real economic data from inside China is very hard to obtain.

One interesting discussion, as reported today by the Financial Times, is that Gita Gopinath, deputy managing director of the IMF, signalled that the fund would upgrade its economic forecasts. Instead of predicting a “tougher” 2023, she now expected an “improvement” in the second half of the year and into 2024.

US business leaders hailed the Joe Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act — a $369bn bid to stimulate green investments in America’s economy.

Overall, whilst there has been a backdrop of harsh economic circumstances across many markets over the last year, the annual discussions at Davos often put the dampener on the markets until the conference is over. Let’s hope it is business as usual after that.

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263

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 19th JAN, 2023

ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $1321

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1321 on 11th Jan, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1600 handle on 18th Jan.

The prices are ranging near horizontal support in the daily time frame indicating bullish trends.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $1321 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1540 and moving in a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1575 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1639 after which the path towards 1700 will get cleared.

We have also seen the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 15-minute time frame.

The relative strength index is at 72.46 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Both the STOCH and average directional index are indicating an overbought market, which means that the prices are expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY signal at the current market levels of $1528.

ETH is now trading above both the 100 hourly simple and 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

  • Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1321 mark
  • The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
  • ETH continues to remain above the $1500 level
  • The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1321

ETHUSD continues to trade higher against the US dollar and bitcoin. The price of Ethereum remains supported above the $1500 level and now we are testing the break of the $1600 handle.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA20 in the daily time frame.

We have also detected a bullish Doji star pattern in the 1-hour time frame.

ETHUSD touched an intraday low of 1507 in the Asian Trading session and an intraday high of 1531 in the European trading session today.

The STOCHRSI is indicating a NEUTRAL level.

The key support levels to watch are $1432 which is a 38.2% Retracement from a 4-week high, and $1446 at which the price crosses 9-Day Moving Average.

ETH has decreased by 3.18% with a price change of 50.14$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 10.105 billion USD.

We can see an Increase 33.87% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH has already made a successful attempt at crossing the $1600 level and the next targets are located at $1700 and $1800 in the medium-term.

At present, the price is moving in a consolidation channel above the $1500 level.

We can see the formation of a bullish ascending channel from $1321 towards the $1542 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral under present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $1588 which is a pivot point 1st resistance point and at $1618 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1700 with a consolidation zone of $1650.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index, RSI (14): is at 72.46 indicating a BUY

The moving average convergence divergence, MACD (12,26): is at 79.85 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 60.41 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change, ROC: is at 22.11 indicating a BUY
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264

AUD/USD and NZD/USD At Risk of Additional Losses


AUD/USD declined below the 0.7000 and 0.6950 support levels. NZD/USD also declined towards 0.6365 and is currently attempting a recovery wave.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

· The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.7000 level against the US Dollar.

· There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6960 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

· NZD/USD declined heavily below the 0.6450 support zone and tested 0.6365.

· There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.6405 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from the 0.7065 zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair remained in a bearish zone below the 0.7000 level.

There was a clear move below the 0.6950 support and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6960 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

The pair traded as low as 0.6871 FXOpen and is currently correcting higher. It surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7063 swing high to 0.6871 low.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.6940 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the 0.6970 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.7063 swing high to 0.6871 low.

A close above the 0.6970 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.7040.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.6890 level. The next support could be the 0.6870 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6870 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6820 level. Any more losses might send the pair towards the 0.6750 support.
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265

Watch FXOpen’s January 16 - 20 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

  • The Davos dampener: Markets stagnant on WEF discussions
  • China stock market outlook
  • The probability of a reversal of the dollar index is growing
  • Crypto winter giving way to Crypto spring? Bitcoin suddenly wakes up

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

FXOpen YouTube

Disclaimer: This forecast represents FXOpen Companies opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, invitation or recommendation in respect to FXOpen Companies products and services or as financial advice.

266

GBP/USD Rallies Above 1.2400, USD/CAD Could Extend Losses

GBP/USD started a major increase and traded above 1.2400. USD/CAD is declining and might even trade below the 1.3350 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD

· The British Pound was able to move above the 1.2300 and 1.2350 resistance levels.

· There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.2380 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

· USD/CAD declined below the 1.3450 and 1.3400 support levels.

· It traded below a major bullish trend line with support near 1.3382 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

After forming a base above the 1.2100, the British Pound started a steady increase against the US Dollar. GBP/USD gained pace for a move above the 1.2250 and 1.2300 resistance levels.

There was a move above the 1.2350 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even moved above the 1.2400 level and traded as high as 1.2447 on FXOpen. During the increase, there was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.2380 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

It is now correcting gains and trading near the 1.2440 level. However, it is trading well above 1.2350 and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

On the downside, an initial support is near the 1.2240 area. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2335 swing low to 1.2447 high.

The next major support is near the 1.2400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2335 swing low to 1.2447 high. If there is a break below 1.2390, the pair could extend its decline.

The next key support is near the 1.2320 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2250 support. An immediate resistance is near the 1.2450 level.

The next resistance is near the 1.2500 level. If there is an upside break above the 1.2500 zone, the pair could rise towards 1.2620. The next key resistance could be 1.2750.

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267

Monday morning blues as EY forecast worse UK recession than expected

For almost two years, there have been constant looming thoughts that the United Kingdom’s economy may face a long, drawn out recession.

During 2021, a time when the interest rates were rising at levels not seen in the past five decades across Europe and North America, there were reports casting a dark shadow over the future of the economy in many Western countries, often stating that it the circumstances at the time may lead to the worst recession in hundreds of years.

Lockdowns which caused low productivity among large companies whilst causing many smaller businesses to go out of business, a global supply chain disruption, and energy price increases which in some cases rocketed by several hundred percent due to geopolitical instability ae some of the reasons which have cast doubt in the minds of many, as costs for individuals and businesses soar whilst double-digit inflation causes earnings to depreciate.

The much-discussed forthcoming recession has not yet arrived, however. Yes, there is a severe cost of living crisis, and belts across Europe and the United Kingdom are very much tightened until their last buckle-hole, but still there is not an actual recession.

This has caused many analysts to consider the possibility that when it comes, it will be severe. Now, global consultancy Ernst & Young (EY) has begun to show its grave concern that a major recession which is worse than predicted, is on the horizon.

Reduced government support, higher taxes and an overall worsening outlook have all led the firm’s analysts to conclude that the next three years could be worse than they anticipated three months ago.

EY’s prediction includes a forecast that the United Kingdom’s gross domestic product could drop by 0.7% this year, but may increase again in the following years.

A year is a long time, however, and given the market volatility which has taken place over the past two years, looking at a very extensive recession which could last a whole year before any improvement is experienced is a big consideration.

It may be only one report, but EY is a large enough consultancy for the markets to take notice of. This morning the British Pound declined against the Euro and by 8.00am in the London trading session, it was trading in the low 1.14 range, a slight downturn after it rose to almost 1.15 late last week.

By contrast, the Pound remains stable against the US Dollar, therefore showing robustness despite the gloomy outlook.

It is worth noting that the FTSE 100 index is booming and has been doing so for a few weeks now, giving rise to the notion that despite the gloomy economic outlook, British blue chip stocks are extremely popular and the traditional companies making up the FTSE 100 index are performing strongly overall, compared to the tech stock carnage that has taken place on the NASDAQ exchange in the United States over the past few weeks.

It appears that whilst the US economy is doing overall better than the British economy, the big money is still sitting in the British low-tech and old school stocks whilst investors turn their back on volatile and depreciating US tech stocks.

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268

Big Tech woes lead to layoffs, resulting in stock surge

Over recent months, Silicon Valley has been struggling to keep its position as an endlessly burgeoning region of massive profits and possibilities.

Technology stocks listed on NASDAQ have been decreasing in value, making the chart pattern for the NASDAQ Composite Index quite sobering reading.

Indeed, so severely have the tables turned on Silicon Valley’s ‘big tech’ giants that European stock markets, with their legacy companies which have been in establishment for in some cases hundreds of years, have been outperforming the giants of the electronic revolution for many months.

Something had to give, and yesterday some of the most popularly traded companies in North America’s big tech sector began to announce significant redundancies of staff.

Following last week’s well publicized redundancies at Alphabet, Google’s holding company, there have been more wounded tech firms following suit.

The layoffs at Google actually had a positive effect on stock values, and now other firms in a similar position are announcing their intention to go down a similar path.

Swedish music streaming service Spotify witnessed its shares rally yesteda as it announced its plan to cut hundreds of jobs to help rein in costs.

Shares of Alphabet rocketed at the end of last week, jumping 5% and adding more than $50 billion in market value, following the tech giant’s decision to lay off 12,000 workers on Friday, demonstrating that it had overspent and grown its business to rapidly since the ‘e-commerce revolution’ which took place in 2020 when many Western governments locked their populations down.

This appears to be a proven strategy, as those with a keen eye who have been monitoring the performance of Meta (previously known as Facebook) will have noticed that its shares have skyrocketed about 50% since the firm announced in November it would cut more than 11,000 jobs.

Silicon Valley was notoriously bloated, and many highly paid staff were allegedly sitting in vacation homes and refusing to come to the office during 2021. The tables are now turning, and the need to keep shareholders happy appears to be paramount at last.

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269

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 24th JAN 2023

BTCUSD: Inverted Hammer Pattern Above $20671

Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week and after touching a low of $20671on 19th Jan we can see a bull run which managed to push the prices of BTCUSD above the $23000 handle today in the early Asian trading session.

After touching a high of $23159 we can see that the prices are declining due to profit taking by the medium term investors.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 month.

We can clearly see an inverted hammer pattern above the $20671 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday high of 23159 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 22858 in the European trading session today.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

The relative strength index is at 63.63 indicating a strong demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly exponential moving average and above its 200 hourly exponential moving average.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a strong buy signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 23000 and 24500.

The average true range is indicating less market volatility with a strongly bullish momentum.

  • Bitcoin: bullish continuation seen above $20671
  • The STOCHRSI range is indicating oversold levels
  • The price is now trading below its pivot level of $23066
  • All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY market signal

Bitcoin: Bullish Continuation Seen Above $20671

We can now see that the price of Bitcoin is moving in a correction phase after which the market consolidation will start above the $22500 handle.

The Aroon indicator is giving a bullish trend in the 1-hour time frame.

The momentum indicator is back over zero in the 30-minute time frame.

We can see the formation of the bullish harami cross pattern in the 15-minute time frame indicating bullish trends.

We have also detected a bullish price crossover pattern with the adaptive moving average AMA100 in the 15-minute time frame.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zones are located at $21017 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average, and at $21976 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 80%.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 23200 and Fibonacci resistance level of 23288 after which the path towards 24000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has increased by 0.47% by 107$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 27.839 billion. We can see an increase of 15.92% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which is due to the heavy buying pressure seen in the global markets.

The Week Ahead

The price of bitcoin has already entered into a super bullish zone above the $22000 and further upsides are located at $24000 and $25000 in the medium-term.

Bitcoin’s resistance zone is located at $23309 which is a 13-week high and at $24778 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

There is an ascending channel forming with the current support located at $19977 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%.

The weekly outlook is projected at $24500 with a consolidation zone of $24000.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence, MACD (12, 26): is at 359.30 indicating a BUY

The commodity channel index, CCI (14): is at 56.65 indicating a BUY

The relative strength index, RSI (14): is at 63.63 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 594.12 indicating a BUY
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270

EUR/USD Resumes Increase While USD/CHF Could Breakdown


EUR/USD gained pace above the 1.0850 resistance zone. USD/CHF is declining and remains at a risk of more losses below the 0.9220 support.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

· The Euro started a fresh increase above the 1.0850 resistance against the US Dollar.

· There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0845 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

· USD/CHF started a fresh decline below the 0.9260 and 0.9250 support levels.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9220 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

In the past few days, the Euro started a steady increase from the 1.0780 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair gained pace above the 1.0820 level to move into a bullish zone.

The pair even climbed above the 1.0850 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.0927 on FXOpen and recently started a downside correction. There was a move below the 1.0880 level.

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

The pair traded as low as 1.0835 and is currently rising. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0927 swing high to 1.0835 low.

An immediate resistance is near the 1.0900 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0927 swing high to 1.0835 low. The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 level.

A clear move above the 1.0920 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0965. The next major resistance is near the 1.1000 zone. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0880 level.

The next major support is near the 1.0850 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0845 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. A downside break below the 1.0850 support could start another decline.

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271

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 26th JAN, 2023

ETHUSD: Three Inside Up Pattern Above $1518

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1518 on 25th Jan, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1600 handle today in the European trading session.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a three inside up pattern above the $1518 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1607 and moving into a mildly bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1610 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1613 after which the path towards 1700 will get cleared.

The relative strength index is at 56.75 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether and the continuation of the bullish phase in the markets.

The price of Ethereum is ranging near the horizontal support in the 1-hour time frame indicating bullish trends.

Both the STOCH and CCI are indicating a neutral market, which means that the prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a BUY market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a BUY signal and we are now looking at the levels of $1650 to $1700 in the short-term range.

ETH is now trading above both the 100 & 200 hourly simple and exponential moving averages.

  • Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1518 mark
  • The short-term range appears to be mildly bullish
  • ETH continues to remain above the $1600 level
  • The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1518

ETHUSD is now moving into a mildly bullish channel with the price trading above the $1600 handle in the European trading session today.

ETH touched an intraday high of 1625 in the Asian trading session and an intraday low of 1600 in the European trading session today.

We can see the formation of a bullish price crossover pattern with adaptive moving average AMA20 in the 30-minute time frame.

The Aroon indicator is giving a bullish trend in the 4-hour time frame.

We have also detected the formation of moving average bullish crossovers: MA50 & MA100 in the daily time frame.

Ethereum’s price is rising sharply against the US dollar and nitcoin and is now eyeing to cross the $1700 level soon.

The daily RSI is printing at 65.97 indicating a STRONG demand for Ether in the medium-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1489 which is a 38.2% Retracement from a 4-week high, and $1536 which is a 3-10-16 day MACD moving average stalls.

ETH has increased by 3.98% with a price change of 61.50$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 10.232 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 10.64% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

ETH price continues to remain in a bullish zone against the US dollar and bitcoin. ETHUSD is expected to move higher towards the $11650 and $1700 levels this week.

On the upside we are now looking at the immediate targets of 1677 which is a 13-week high, and $1685 which is a pivot point 2nd level resistance.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The price of ETHUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $1588 which is a pivot point.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1700 with a consolidation zone of $1650.

Technical Indicators:

The average directional index, ADX (14): is at 45.27 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 2.735 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 7.52 indicating a BUY

The Williams percent range : is at -44.41 indicating a BUY

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272

Gold Price Could Dip While Crude Oil Price Trades In Range

Gold price is struggling to stay above the $1,925 support. Crude oil price is facing a strong resistance near the $82 zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

· Gold price started a strong increase and tested $1,950 against the US Dollar.

· There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,925 on the hourly chart of gold.

· Crude oil price started a fresh increase from the $79.50 support zone.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $80.40 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

Gold price formed a base above the $1,900 level against the US Dollar. The price started a strong increase above the $1,915 and $1,920 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

The bulls even pumped the price above the $1,940 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even tested the $1,950 zone. A high is formed near $1,949 on FXOpen and the price is now correcting gains.

Gold Price Hourly Chart

There was a move below the $1,940 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even dipped below the $1,920 level before the bulls appeared.

Recently, there was a recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,949 swing high to $1,918 low. However, the bears are active below the $1,935 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

The price failed to clear the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,949 swing high to $1,918 low. It is now moving lower below $1,930.

An immediate support on the downside is near the $1,925 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,925 on the hourly chart of gold. The next major support is near the $1,915 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline. In the stated case, the price could decline sharply towards the $1,900 support zone.

On the upside, the first major resistance is near the $1,930 level. The next key hurdle is near the $1,935 level, above which it could even test $1,950. A clear upside break above the $1,950 resistance could send the price towards $1,965.

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273

Watch FXOpen’s January 23 - 27 Weekly Market Wrap Video

In this video, FXOpen UK COO Gary Thomson sums up the week’s happenings and discusses the most significant news reports.

Monday morning blues as EY forecast worse UK recession than expected
Natural gas fell by 50% in 1 month
Big Tech woes lead to layoffs, resulting in stock surge
TSLA. Report reassures investors

Watch our short and informative video, and stay updated with FXOpen.

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274

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Could Resume Increase

GBP/USD is consolidating gains pace above the 1.2350 zone. GBP/JPY is also rising and might gain pace if it clears the 161.80 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

· The British Pound is showing positive signs above 1.2350 against the US Dollar.

· There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2400 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

· GBP/JPY started a fresh increase above the 160.00 resistance zone.

· There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 160.90 on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

This past week, the British Pound found support near the 1.2280 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair formed a base and started a steady increase above the 1.23200 level.

There was a clear move above the 1.2350 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even cleared the 1.2400 resistance. A high is formed near 1.2418 on FXOpen and the pair corrected lower.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

There was a move below the 1.2380 level, but the bulls were active near the 1.2345. The pair is now rising and trading above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.2418 swing high to 1.2345 low.

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.2400 level. There is also a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2400 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.

The triangle resistance is near the 76.4% key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.2400 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major resistance is near the 1.2420 level, above which the pair could start a steady increase towards 1.2450.

An upside break above 1.2450 might start a fresh increase towards 1.2550. Any more gains might call for a move towards 1.2600 or even 1.2640.

An immediate support is near the 1.2380. The next major support is near the 1.2350 level. If there is a break below the 1.2350 support, the pair could test the 1.2280 support. Any more losses might send GBP/USD towards 1.2220.
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275

Markets focus on Bitcoin as volatility takes it to 5-month high


The much publicized ‘crypto winter’ has been a long, drawn out period of relatively low values among major cryptocurrencies, lasting now for several months.

Along with the depressed values compared to the incredible volatility of 2021 which showed Bitcoin race to over $60,000 and below $20,000 and back again, there has been a stagnant market for long enough for those who were on the edge of their seat a just a year and a half ago to fall asleep during the winter of 2022.

This weekend, however, has caused some market participants to wake from the months-long slumber and begin to take note as Bitcoin values suddenly climbed to $23,900 by Sunday evening (UK market time).

That is almost $1000 higher than the value at which Bitcoin began the very same day, its value having been at $23,003 at 00.30 in the first half hour of the morning UK time.

Over the 24 hours until 12.00pm today UK time, Bitcoin had risen by 2% which is significant considering the millpond-like doldrums it has been in over the past few weeks.

This sudden rally was short lived, however, and by 13.00 UK time, Bitcoin values had descended to $23,100 which is a similar value to the pre-rally price on Sunday morning.

Whilst the return to the low $23,000 range may appear a damp squib to those who had become excited by the sudden upward direction which took place yesterday, the movement does at least demonstrate that some market volatility was present after a long period of stagnation, hence why this has been a talking point among many analysts and reporters over the past 24 hours.

What is of perhaps greater interest is that the high point reached yesterday evening put Bitcoin value at its highest point since August 12, 2022, when it traded at $24,412 and despite tailing off a bit during the course of today, Bitcoin is still at its second highest point in the last six months.

Therefore, whilst perhaps a small blip in the market value of the world’s most popularly traded cryptocurrency may appear short lived, this is the highest value in the past five months, which is definitely something to write about.

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276

Brent Crude Oil price takes a bashing overnight

During the past two years, oil, along with many other raw material commodities which are used to produce energy products, has been very volatile.

Perhaps given the nature of its supply, which is largely in the hands of the OPEC+ countries whose national economies depend on the export of oil around the world, the ‘oil cartel’ has a lot of bargaining power over its consumers, hence in times of economic strife or geopolitical instability, oil prices have always been ones to watch.

First of all there was supply chain and logistical curtailment due to lockdowns across many Western countries, which led to the increase in the price of oil during 2020 and 2021, and then the sanctioning of the settlement accounts of Russian oil companies by European governments which led to any oil bought having to be settled in Rubles in bank accounts in Moscow, leading to rapidly accelerating ruble prices and oil supply constraints for European customers.

Therefore, oil prices have been high for 2 years, however this morning during the Asian trading session, Brent Crude Oil (WTI) took a dive in value and by 8.45am UK time, it was languishing at $76.92 per barrel, a steep drop over yesterday’s values and a very noticeable drop compared to this time last week when the value was $82.27 per barrel on January 23, its highest value this month.

During the past 30 days, Brent Crude Oil has been very volatile in its values, having begun the month at a low point of $73.08 on January 4, before accelerating past the $80 mark by mid January, then retracting again before heading back to the high of over $82 last week, and now it is back down to the mid-$70s again.

Despite the overall rollercoaster ride of volatility this month, Brent Crude Oil is down overall by 4.3% during the past 30 days.

This has been an interesting period for commodities traders, and whilst in many Western markets, gasoline prices are now far lower than they were six months ago, the price of crude oil continues to fluctuate considerably.

In some cases, vehicle fuel prices at the pumps on the retail market have decreased by over 50p (British) or 50c (Euro) per liter in six months. For example, in July 2022, motorists in the United Kingdom were paying approximately £1.99 per liter, now unleaded fuel is readily available at around £1.50 per liter, and in France, in July 2022 unleaded fuel was retailing at an extremely high 2.20 Euros per liter, whereas during January 2023 it has been selling at anywhere between 1.70 and 1.87 Euros per liter.

Volatility is the the lifeblood of trading, so says the old adage, and the oil price this month has certainly been on point in this respect.

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277

BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 31st JAN 2023

BTCUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $22396

Bitcoin continues its bullish momentum from last week and after touching a low of $22396 on 25th Jan, the prices started to correct upwards against the US dollar and are now ranging above the $22500 handle in the European trading session today.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $22396 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

Bitcoin touched an intraday low of 22543 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of 22992 in the European trading session today.

The price of bitcoin is ranging near a new record high of 1 month.

We can see the formation of a bullish harami and bullish harami cross pattern in the daily time frame.

Both the STOCH and Williams percent range are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

We have also detected a bullish doji star pattern in the 30-minute time frame indicating bullish trends.

The relative strength index is at 56.23 indicating a strong demand for bitcoin, and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and above its 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

Most of the major technical indicators are giving a buy signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 23000 and 24500.

The average true range is indicating high market volatility with a mildly bullish momentum.

  • Bitcoin: bullish continuation seen above $22396
  • The commodity channel index is indicating a neutral level
  • The price is now trading just below its pivot level of $22884
  • The short-term range is mildly bullish

Bitcoin: Bullish Continuation Seen Above $22396

The price of bitcoin witnessed a downwards correction after touching $23926 as the target of $24K was rejected by the bulls. Now the markets are ranging into a consolidation channel above the $22500 handle.

After the consolidation phase is over, we are expecting upside moves in the range of $23500 to $24000 levels.

The resistance of the channel is broken in the 15-minute time frame.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend reversal pattern with the moving average MA20 in the 15-minute time frame.

The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

Bitcoin’s support zone is located at $20780 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls, and at $21091 which is a 38.2% retracement from a 4-week high.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 22928 and Fibonacci resistance level of 22950 after which the path towards 23000 will get cleared.

In the last 24hrs BTCUSD has decreased by 1.85% by 432.62$ and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 25.925 billion. We can see a decrease of 5.10% in the trading volume compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

The Week Ahead

Bitcoin has reached its highest level this month at $23956 which is a positive sign after the harsh crypto winter season seen last year.

The daily RSI is printing at 69.281 which indicates a very strong demand for bitcoin and the continuation of the bullish phase present in the markets in the short-term range.

We can see the formation of a bullish trend line from $22396 towards the $23983 level.

The price of BTCUSD is now facing its resistance zone located at $23098 which is a pivot point, and at $23527 which is a 3-10 day MACD oscillator stalls.

The weekly outlook is projected at $24000 with a consolidation zone of $23500.

Technical Indicators:

The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): is at 1256.90 indicating a BUY

The ultimate oscillator: is at 52.29 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change : is at 8.37 indicating a BUY

Bull/bear power (13): is at 856.36 indicating a BUY
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278

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY At Risk of Fresh Decline


EUR/USD is facing resistance near the 1.0880 zone. EUR/JPY is also facing hurdles and remains at a risk of a downward move below 141.00.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

· The Euro started a fresh increase from the 1.0800 zone.

· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0895 on the hourly chart.

· EUR/JPY started a steady increase after it found support near the 140.75.

· There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 141.65 on the hourly chart.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro formed a base above the 1.0800 zone and started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair was able to clear the 1.0820 and 1.0840 resistance levels.

There was a clear move above the 1.0850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0913 swing high to 1.0802 low (formed on FXOpen).

EUR/USD Hourly Chart

However, the pair struggled to stay above the 1.0865 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It failed to clear the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0913 swing high to 1.0802 low.

On the downside, the pair might find support near the 1.0840 level. The next major support sits near the 1.0825 level, below which the pair could even test the 1.0800 support zone.

If there is a downside break below the 1.0800 support, the pair might accelerate lower in the coming sessions. In the stated case, it could even test 1.0725. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.0870 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0895 on the hourly chart.

The next major resistance is near the 1.0920 level. A clear move above the 1.0920 resistance might send the price towards 1.0950. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could visit the 1.1050 resistance zone in the near term.
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279

USD down slightly ahead of Fed announcement as interest rates look toward 15 year high

Today, the Federal Reserve bank in the United States is set to make an announcement regarding another potential interest rate increase, which would represent the latest in a long string of such actions over the past year.

Should this proceed, it may dampen the enthusiasm of investors, and therefore have a negative effect on the US economy overall.

However, the US Dollar has remained strong, and when looking at this morning’s chart analysts across the world are predicting that the interest rates in the United States may once again be increased.

As a result, it would perhaps be very understandable to consider the possibility that the US Dollar, which has been has been very strong this year against other major currencies, could perhaps decrease in value rapidly.

The reality is quite different and the US Dollar has only made a very slight dip against some of its major peers.

The British Pound was up to the high 1.23 range against the US Dollar early this morning during the London trading session.

This is because a number of central banks around the world are set to increase interest rates, and during the course of this week it is widely estimated that the combination of central banks in many key nations with developed financial markets economies may increase interest rates to highest levels since the financial crisis, stoking anxiety among some investors that this month’s bond market rally underestimates evidence of persistent inflation.

At the end of the 2000s, when the global financial crisis hit and major financial institutions with long heritages began to collapse - notably the high profile and catastrophic demise of Lehman Brothers, and subsequent other disasters such as the bankruptcy of Bear Stearns - the world’s oldest investment bank - and nationalization of many large banks such as Barclays, HSBC and Lloyds due to their over-exposure to secured and unsecured credit, as well as the aggressive takeover attempt by Royal Bank of Scotland which resulted in it having to be bailed out by the British taxpayer, the interest rates were at around 5% in the United Kingdom, the Eurozone and the United States.

Since then, they have been incredibly low across the 2010s, and only in 2021 did they begin to rise again. It is looking likely that they will be up to the 5% mark again.

Of course, it is still a far cry from the 15% interest rates that were commonplace in the United Kingdom and some other key markets during the early 1990s, which is perhaps remarkable considering the geopolitical circumstances of the past three years, but 5% is a massive increment over the less than 1% many consumers have been used to for many years until 2021.

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280

ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 02nd FEB, 2023

ETHUSD: Three White Soldiers Pattern Above $1535

Ethereum was unable to sustain its bearish momentum and after touching a low of 1535 on 30th Jan, the price started to correct upwards against the US dollar crossing the $1650 handle today in the Asian trading session.

After touching a high of $1694 the prices have retracted due to profit taking by the medium-term investors.

We have seen a bullish opening of the markets this week.

We can clearly see a three white soldiers pattern above the $1535 handle which is a bullish pattern and signifies the end of a bearish phase and the start of a bullish phase in the markets.

ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1665 and moving into a strong bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of 1668 and Fibonacci resistance level of 1673 after which the path towards 1700 will get cleared.

We have also seen the formation of a Bullish engulfing line in the weekly time frame.

The price of Ethereum is ranging near the support of the channel in the 15-minute time frame indicating a bullish scenario.

The relative strength index is at 68.86 indicating a strong demand for Ether and the continuation of the buying pressure in the markets.

The Williams percent range is indicating an overbought market, which means that the price is expected to decline in the short-term range.

Most of the technical indicators are giving a strong buy market signal.

Most of the moving averages are giving a strong buy signal at the current market level of $1666.

ETH is now trading above both the 100 hourly simple and 100 hourly exponential moving averages.

  • Ether: bullish reversal seen above the $1535 mark
  • Short-term range appears to be strongly bullish
  • ETH continues to remain above the $1650 level
  • The average true range is indicating less market volatility

Ether: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $1535

ETHUSD continues to trade higher against the US dollar and bitcoin. The price of Ethereum remains supported above the $1600 level and now we are testing the break of the $1700 handle.

We can see the formation of a B=bullish price crossover pattern with adaptive moving average AMA20 in the weekly time frame.

The momentum indicator is back over zero in the daily time frame indicating bullish trends.

We have also detected the formation of a bullish harami pattern in the 4-hour time frame.

ETHUSD touched an intraday low of 1633 and an intradayhHigh of 1694 in the Asian trading session today.

The STOCHRSI is indicating an oversold level, which indicates that the prices will continue to rise in the medium-term range.

The key support levels to watch are $1594 which is a 14-3 day raw stochastic at 50%, and $1637 at which the price crosses 9-day moving average stalls.

ETH has increased by 5.88% with a price change of 92.60$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 9.958 billion USD.

We can see an increase of 60.00% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which is due to heavy buying seen at lower levels.

The Week Ahead

ETH has already made a failed attempt to cross the $1700 level by touching $1694 today. Now we are expecting a retest of the $1700 breach after which the next targets are located at $1800 and $1900 levels.

At present, the prices are moving in a consolidation channel above the $1650 level.

We can see the formation of a bullish ascending channel from $1535 towards the $1684 level.

The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly bullish, the medium-term outlook has turned bullish, and the long-term outlook for Ether is neutral in present market conditions.

The resistance zone is located at $1701 which is the pivot point 2nd resistance level and at $1868 which is a 14-day RSI at 80%.

The weekly outlook is projected at $1800 with a consolidation zone of $1750.

Technical Indicators:

The relative strength index, RSI (14): is at 68.86 indicating a BUY

The moving average convergence divergence, MACD (12,26): is at 21.75 indicating a BUY

The average directional index: is at 23.83 indicating a BUY

The rate of price change: is at 22.11 indicating a BUY
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