Daily Market Analysis by Joshen Stephen from Ultima Markets

[Joshen_Stephen]

Hi everyone,
This is Joshen Stephen , part of the strategy desk at Ultima Markets, where I contribute to daily market research and macro outlooks. I’ve been actively analyzing markets for several years with a focus on forex, commodities, and central bank policy shifts.

Starting today, I’ll be sharing daily insights here—short and focused posts highlighting key market drivers, price action perspectives, and potential trade setups. My goal is to spark discussion, exchange ideas, and learn from fellow traders across all levels.

I will not post any promotional links, and all views expressed will be strictly analytical and educational. I welcome constructive feedback, alternative views, or just a friendly hello

If for any reason this post is not in line with the forum’s policies, I kindly ask the moderators to reach out to me. I’d be happy to revise or adjust accordingly. Thank you!

Looking forward to sharing and learning together. Stay sharp and trade safe!

[Friscodan]

Friendly Hello.

Can’t wait to see what you produce. Welcome.

[Joshen_Stephen]

U.S. Treasury Yields Surge Amid Rising Fiscal Concerns

U.S. 30-year yields break above 5.10%, with 10-year yields at 4.6%, as auction demand weakens. Investors react to Moody’s downgrade and policy uncertainty.

U.S. Treasury Yield Curve (10Y/20Y/30Y) | Chart Source: TradingView

The 20Y auction required a 5.047% yield to clear. Rising credit risk signals declining investor confidence.

Debt Load and Growth Risks

Roughly $9.2 trillion in Treasuries will mature in 2025, over half before July. Total debt: $36.21T; interest expense: 16% of federal outlays.

2024 Debt-to-GDP Ratio | Source: FiscalData US Government

With yields high and tariffs back in focus, refinancing costs may pressure fiscal stability and long-term USD strength.

Market Impacts: Fragile Sentiment

If auctions remain weak, yields could stay high, weighing on the Dollar and equities as growth and earnings outlooks dim.

S&P 500 Outlook: Rally Faces Resistance

The index rallied on China-U.S. trade hopes but now faces technical headwinds. 6000 remains resistance; 5700 is key support.

S&P 500 Day Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets does not guarantee accuracy and assumes no liability for reliance on the information provided.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Japan Inflation Persists as Growth Slows and Market Volatility Rises

Key Inflation Data and Policy Implications

Japan’s April CPI data signals entrenched inflation:

• Headline CPI held at 3.6% YoY, above the BoJ’s 2% target
• Core CPI rose to 3.5%, a 2-year high
• Core-core CPI (ex food and energy) climbed to 3.0%

These readings suggest widespread price pressures, complicating policy decisions.

Growth Weakness and Falling Real Wages

Despite high inflation, Q1 GDP fell 0.2% QoQ (annualized -0.7%) due to:

• Rising import costs driven by geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariffs
• Wage increases from the Shunto labor talks, but real wages fell 3 consecutive months

Weak household spending power adds complexity to BoJ policy.

Japan Real Wages Trend | Source: Government of Japan

Bond Market Response and Yield Climb

Government bond yields surged on inflation and fiscal concerns:

• 10Y JGB yield near 1.65%
• 40Y JGB yield jumped to 3.7%, +100 bps from April

Markets expect potential BoJ tightening in September.

Yen and Asset Market Outlook

The yen gained support from domestic yields and a weaker dollar but remains sensitive to rate trends and BoJ tone.

• Bonds: Long yields may rise further
• JPY: May strengthen if BoJ turns hawkish and global rates stabilize
• Equities: Higher yields and yen appreciation could pressure profits, especially for exporters

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets does not guarantee its accuracy and assumes no responsibility for actions taken based on it.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Trump Delays EU Tariffs, Markets React with Relief​

Market Response: Euro and European Stocks Jump​

President Trump announced a delay in the proposed 50% tariff on EU goods from June 1 to July 9. The euro rose past 1.1400 and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures surged nearly 1.4% at Monday’s open.

EURUSD 4H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

EU50 Daily Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Delay Is Not Resolution: Trade Talks Continue​

While the postponement signals a diplomatic gesture, no substantial agreement was reached. Analysts at Ultima Markets note the situation resembles past U.S.-China talks—cautious optimism is warranted.

Euro Outlook: Key Support Holds​

Technically, EUR/USD holds above 1.1280. A breakout above 1.1400 may extend upside momentum. Fundamentally, dollar weakness from U.S. fiscal concerns supports the euro, but upcoming Fed moves and July negotiations remain key.

European Equities: Rebound Faces Resistance​

EU50 has recovered above 5300, entering a bullish technical structure. However, overhead resistance remains, and consolidation is likely if no new catalysts emerge.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer​

This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets makes no guarantee as to its accuracy and disclaims any liability from reliance upon it.

[Joshen_Stephen]

OPEC+ Output Hike Weighs on Oil Prices Ahead of May 31 Meeting​

Oil Stuck Near Pandemic-Era Lows​

Brent and WTI crude prices are hovering near $64 and $61 per barrel respectively—levels not seen since post-COVID lows. Weakness stems from expectations OPEC+ may raise output by 411,000 bpd starting in July, amid rising global trade uncertainties.

UKOUSD (Daily Chart) | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

USOUSD (Daily Chart) | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Policy Uncertainty Adds Supply-Demand Risk​

U.S. reciprocal tariffs threaten to curb manufacturing and energy use. Any formal OPEC+ output hike would risk oversupply amid faltering global economic momentum.

Demand Weakness Becomes Structural Threat​

The IEA forecasts global oil demand growth for 2025 and 2026 to fall below 1 million barrels/day, marking the weakest 3-year stretch since the pandemic.

Annual Oil Demand Growth Forecast | Source: U.S. EIA

Key Risks and Watchpoints​

• A confirmed OPEC+ hike could drag oil to new lows
• Trade tension across U.S., China, and Europe may hinder industrial fuel demand
• If major economies stall, crude pricing may revert to pre-recovery ranges

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer​

This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets makes no representation as to its accuracy and disclaims any liability arising from reliance on it.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Australian Inflation Steady, RBA May Pause Further Easing​

Key CPI Figures​

Australia’s annual inflation rate held steady at 2.4% in April 2025, within the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Core inflation rose slightly to 2.8%, casting uncertainty over future rate cuts.

• Headline CPI YoY: 2.4%, unchanged from March and slightly above expectations (2.3%).
• Trimmed Mean CPI: rose from 2.7% to 2.8%.
• Ex-volatile CPI: also up from 2.6% to 2.8%.

Notable price movements:
• Food & non-alcoholic beverages: +3.1%, with egg prices surging 18.6% due to bird flu.
• Housing: +2.2%, with rents up 5.0% annually.
• Recreation & culture: +3.6%
• Fuel: -12%
• Electricity: -6.5%

Australia Monthly CPI YoY | Source: ABS; Chart from Trading Economics

Policy Outlook: Measured Easing​

The RBA cut its cash rate by 25bps to 3.85% in May, marking the second rate cut this year. While inflation remains within target, the rise in core measures may temper the pace of future easing.

RBA Rate Tracker | Source: ASX.com.au

Market Expectations and Risks​

Before the CPI release, markets priced in a 78% chance of a July cut to 3.60%. However, rising core inflation may shift expectations toward a policy pause pending more data.

In its May statement, the RBA noted inflation may temporarily exceed 3% in the second half of 2025 due to expiring subsidies, before returning to the midpoint of its target range.

Market Reaction and AUDUSD Outlook​

AUD rose slightly, and the ASX 200 hit a 3-month high. AUDUSD remains range-bound between 0.6400–0.6500 in a mild uptrend channel. Without new drivers, short-term consolidation is likely.

AUDUSD 4H Chart | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer​

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets makes no representation as to its accuracy and accepts no liability for any loss arising from reliance upon it.

[Joshen_Stephen]

U.S. Court Rules Trump’s Tariffs Unlawful, Easing Trade Tensions​

Court Ruling Challenges Trade Authority​

A U.S. federal appeals court has ruled that the Trump-era tariffs imposed in 2018 on Chinese imports were procedurally invalid. The decision may overturn billions in levies and limits future executive tariff powers.

Market Turns Risk-On, USD Pulls Back​

Following the ruling, global equities advanced and risk sentiment improved. Emerging market currencies gained, and the U.S. dollar index edged lower.

U.S. Dollar Index (Daily Chart) | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

USD Outlook: Sideways with Support​

While the ruling eases trade friction, investor focus shifts to U.S. economic uncertainty and the Fed’s next steps. DXY technical support lies at 104.5, with resistance around 105.3.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer​

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets makes no guarantee as to the accuracy of the content and accepts no liability for any loss resulting from reliance upon it.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Manufacturing PMI Falls in Both US and China, Recovery Doubts Remain

US PMI Dips into Contraction Again, USD Weakens Short-Term

The ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US in May came in at 48.7, below the forecast of 49.5 and slightly down from April’s 49.2, signaling renewed contraction in manufacturing activity. Details were equally weak: new orders dropped from 49.1 to 45.4, the employment index slid from 48.6 to 51.1, while the prices paid index rose from 60.9 to 57.0.

The disappointing report cast doubt over the strength of the US recovery and weighed on the USD. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in June, but the timing and likelihood of future cuts remain data-dependent.

ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI | Source: Ultima Market

China Caixin PMI Remains Fragile Despite Modest Gain

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.6 in May from 50.4 previously, but the official PMI unexpectedly declined to 49.5 from 50.4, slipping back into contraction. The divergence between the two indicators highlights uneven domestic and external demand recovery.

While production and new orders showed growth in the Caixin report, employment dropped for the 11th straight month and business expectations for the next 12 months turned weaker, indicating the recovery remains uncertain and confidence-lacking.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI | Source: Ultima Market

Technical Outlook: Yuan Bears Rebound, Still Ranging Short-Term

The USDCNH pair found support near the lower trendline of its ascending channel, rebounding from the 7.2550 level after multiple tests. This suggests bearish sentiment around Chinese data has already been priced in.

Technically, moving averages remain upward-sloping, and RSI is not yet overbought, indicating potential for further bullish moves. A break above 7.2800 would target the 7.3000 high, while failure to hold 7.2550 may lead to a retest of 7.2300.

USDCNH Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to ensure data accuracy, but makes no guarantees and may revise without notice. Ultima Markets assumes no responsibility for any losses resulting from reliance on this information.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Tariffs and Export Controls Reignite US-China Trade Tensions

Trump Doubles Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum

On Tuesday, President Trump signed a proclamation to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, citing national security concerns. The new tariffs take effect Wednesday and reflect Trump’s ongoing push to reduce US reliance on foreign metal imports.

According to Trump, the increased tariffs aim to boost domestic production and protect American steelmakers from what he calls “national security” threats. However, this move has alarmed multiple industries, especially manufacturers that heavily rely on imported metals.

For these businesses, raw material costs are likely to surge. As a result, companies may be forced to raise prices, delay production, trim profit margins, cut jobs, or scale back investments.

The immediate market reaction reveals fears of cost-push inflation and a potential deterioration in global trade relations.

China’s Rare Earth Export Restrictions

At the same time, China’s latest export restrictions on critical minerals are hitting global manufacturers. In April, China suspended exports of several rare earth materials vital to EV batteries, semiconductors, aerospace parts, and military production.

China, which dominates the global rare earth supply chain, has intensified already strained global supply networks with these curbs.

Automakers worldwide—particularly in the US, Europe, and Japan—are voicing concerns about possible delays or factory shutdowns. Industry associations warn that without swift identification of alternative suppliers or diplomatic solutions, production disruptions may affect several strategic sectors.

Broader Implications: A Trade War Again?

The US’s move to increase tariffs and China’s export restrictions highlight the fragility of US-China trade relations. Although both nations signed a trade deal in May, these new actions indicate that tensions remain unresolved.

Senior US officials suggest that President Trump and President Xi may soon meet to address the escalating friction.

However, China insists that the US must first create the necessary conditions for bilateral relations to return to a “correct path.” While high-level talks remain a possibility, the risk of another trade war cannot be ruled out.

Market Reaction: Gold Surges to One-Month High

Gold, a traditional safe haven, has rallied sharply over the past two days, hitting its highest level in a month amid growing concerns about global trade tensions.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

From a technical perspective, gold has broken above the resistance level near 3355 and reached a new high earlier this week. If prices remain firm above this level, further short-term upside is possible.

That said, gold remains within a broad consolidation range. Unless trade tensions significantly escalate, prices may continue to fluctuate sideways.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to ensure data accuracy, but makes no guarantee and may revise the information at any time without notice. Ultima Markets shall not be held liable for any loss or damage, including but not limited to lost profits, arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.

[Joshen_Stephen]

US Services PMI Shrinks, Tariff Impact Emerges

New Orders Plunge, Prices Surge

Following earlier manufacturing PMI data, the US Services PMI for May 2025 unexpectedly contracted. The ISM services index fell from 51.6 in April to 49.9, below the forecasted 52 and marking the first sub-50 reading since June 2024.

A breakdown of the data shows clear weakness in demand. The new orders index tumbled to 46.4, indicating a significant drop in new business.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remain elevated. The prices paid index rose to 68.7, the highest since November 2022. Many businesses cited rising input costs due to new tariffs and ongoing supply chain disruptions.

US Services PMI | Source: ISM, Trading Economics

Prices Paid Index | Source: ISM, Trading Economics

Are Tariff Effects Starting to Emerge?

The simultaneous contraction of both manufacturing and services PMIs suggests that the economic impact of recent tariffs is beginning to materialize. Although the US and China partially rolled back tariffs in their early-May agreement, uncertainty and higher import costs persist.

Focus Shifts to NFP Report

All eyes are now on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report due this Friday. It remains the key benchmark for assessing US labor market health.
Markets expect the US to add only 130,000 jobs in May. This aligns with the ADP private payrolls report, which showed just 37,000 new jobs.

Will the Dollar Fall Further?

The ISM data dragged the US dollar lower on Wednesday. The USD Index (USDX) broke below the critical 99.00 mark again.

Ultima Market analyst Shawn noted: “Although the dollar is under pressure, a key support level remains. If more negative economic signals emerge, downside pressure may intensify.”

USD Index Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

The comments, news, research, analysis, prices, and other information provided in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to ensure accuracy, but does not guarantee absolute correctness and may change content at any time without notice. Ultima Markets shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information, including but not limited to loss of profits.

[Joshen_Stephen]

ECB Cuts Rates as Expected; Trump Tariffs Cloud Outlook​

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its deposit rate to 2%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted in the press conference that inflation is nearing the 2% target.

Data shows eurozone inflation in May fell below 2% for the first time in 8 months and only the second time since 2021. This reinforces the ECB’s view that the inflation control mission is almost complete.

(Eurozone Inflation Data)

Trump’s Tariff Policies a Major Variable​

Trump’s aggressive tariff stance has reintroduced uncertainty to global markets, damaging confidence in the U.S. and casting doubt on global growth prospects.

Lagarde emphasized that the ECB is “ready to respond” to rising trade tensions and European fiscal volatility.

She also acknowledged that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end after years of navigating overlapping shocks from COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the energy crisis.

(ECB Policy Rate Chart)

Following Lagarde’s comments, market expectations for another ECB rate cut this year have diminished, and traders are no longer fully pricing in a second cut. The euro surged more than 0.6% in response.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Technically, while the U.S. dollar remains under pressure, it has yet to break key support levels, suggesting the market awaits further directional signals.

All eyes now turn to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report. A strong jobs print may trigger a dollar rebound, while weak numbers could prompt deeper correction.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer​

The comments, news, research, analysis, prices, and other information provided in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the data, but does not guarantee its absolute correctness and may revise it at any time without notice. Ultima Markets shall not be held liable for any loss or damage, including but not limited to lost profits, arising directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Weaker Jobs Data, But Risk Assets Rally

The US added 172,000 jobs in May, slightly beating forecasts of 130,000. However, April’s figures were revised sharply lower to 108,000, showing signs of a cooling labor market.

Wage growth slowed to 4.1% YoY, indicating easing inflationary pressure. Unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4%, the highest since late 2022.

US Non-Farm Payroll | Source: U.S. BLS, TradingEconomics

Despite this, equities and crypto assets rallied strongly. The S&P 500 gained 1%, Nasdaq jumped nearly 2%, and Bitcoin surged above $72,000 to a one-month high.

Trade Talks Spark Optimism

Beyond the jobs data, markets welcomed reports of renewed high-level US-China trade talks. Officials hinted that discussions will focus on tariffs and tech export restrictions.

Though no details have been released, the move is seen as a US attempt to ease trade tensions ahead of the election, supporting supply chain sentiment.

Technical View: Dollar & Gold in Tandem Swings

The US Dollar Index (USDX) fell after the report, testing support around 98.80.

Gold briefly rebounded above $2370 but failed to hold, as rate path uncertainty lingers.

Bitcoin may aim for new highs if it holds above the $72,000 mark.

USDX / Gold / Bitcoin Daily Charts | Source: Ultima Markets MT5

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

The comments, news, research, analysis, price and other information provided are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information, but does not guarantee absolute correctness. Changes may be made at any time without notice. Ultima Markets shall not be liable for any loss or damage, including but not limited to profit loss, resulting from the use of or reliance on such content.

[Joshen_Stephen]

U.S.-China Trade Talks Latest: Gold & JPY Under Short-Term Pressure, How Markets Interpret?

Fellow financial market participants, this week’s market sentiment has seen a shift influenced by new developments in U.S.-China trade talks, leading to a cautiously optimistic atmosphere. This optimism has fueled risk-on sentiment, simultaneously placing selling pressure on traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese Yen.

Market Overview: U.S.-China Talks Fuel Risk-on Sentiment

High-level delegations from both the U.S. and China are reportedly meeting in London, with U.S. officials hinting at a potential phone call between President Trump and President Xi. These signs have rekindled hopes for de-escalation of tensions. This diplomatic thaw has spurred a return of risk appetite across global equities and weighed on traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese Yen.

Gold: Short-Term Performance & Structural Factors

Gold prices had rallied in recent months due to geopolitical uncertainty and inflation hedging demands. However, with improving risk sentiment, spot gold prices have retreated from recent highs near $3,400. Gold may continue to face pressure in the near term.

Nevertheless, the structural demand for gold as a long-term hedge and uncertainty buffer is unlikely to disappear. Furthermore, should the U.S.–China talks fail to produce tangible outcomes (e.g., a rollback in tariffs), market volatility could return, potentially re-energizing safe-haven demand for gold.

• Technical Outlook: Gold (XAUUSD)
  
  
  

Image Source: XAUUSD, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5 With resistance at $3400, the next key short-term level lies near $3,335, where gold may face another round of pullback toward the $3,250 region. The key structural support remains at $3,200.

Japanese Yen: Short-Term Pressure & Potential Rebound

The Japanese Yen, another key safe-haven asset, is also facing downward pressure recently. USDJPY has climbed back above 147.00 amid reduced demand for haven currencies. The Bank of Japan’s lack of aggressive moves in its tightening path has limited upside for Yen bulls.

However, this picture remains fragile. If markets begin to doubt the durability of the trade thaw—or if inflationary concerns flare up due to ongoing tariffs and supply chain disruptions—the Yen could quickly regain ground. A retreat in global equities or rising concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability could also trigger a reversion to risk-off trades favoring the JPY.

• Technical Outlook: USDJPY
  
  
  

Image Source: USDJPY, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5 Technically, USDJPY is approaching the upper end of its recent range. If the pair breaches 145.00 with sustained momentum, it may test new cycle highs toward 146 or beyond. However, 146 remains a key resistance for now.

Summary Outlook:

While recent U.S.–China diplomacy offers hope, safe-haven assets like Gold and the Yen are in a holding pattern—facing near-term headwinds from improved sentiment but standing ready to rebound on any setback.

Investors are watching not just headlines, but concrete actions. A failure to deliver real policy clarity could swiftly reverse the risk-on tone and reassert demand for defensive assets. Until then, we are likely to see risk-on sentiment continue to fuel momentum in risk assets.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

[Joshen_Stephen]

U.S.-China Trade Talks Latest: Can Equity Rally Last Amid Tariff & Court Ruling Uncertainty?

this week’s market sentiment is shaped by the latest developments in U.S.-China trade talks and U.S. tariff policy. While negotiations in London show a framework agreement, persistent tariff uncertainty and a recent U.S. court ruling keep markets cautious.

Tariffs Update: US-China Trade Talk & U.S. Court Ruling

The two-day negotiations between the U.S. and China continued in London, with both sides agreeing on a framework to implement previous trade deals, including adjustments related to rare earth export policies. U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick described the discussions as “going really well”, suggesting they may extend. However, markets remain cautious; while the framework marks progress, it still requires final approval from President Trump, and rare earth export restrictions remain unresolved.

On the tariff front, the landscape remains complex. Higher steel and aluminum tariffs have already taken effect , and reciprocal tariffs on other major trading partners, postponed for 90 days, are set to expire in July. Despite a recent U.S. court ruling that President Trump exceeded his authority under the IEEPA when imposing sweeping tariffs , the White House has appealed, and the U.S. Court of Appeals has issued an order allowing the tariffs to remain in place temporarily. This suggests Trump-era tariffs may stay longer than anticipated , setting up a potential July deadline for further trade clarity and raising the risk of renewed volatility across global markets.

Market Implication: Can the Stock Rally Last?

Global equities have remained buoyant, with major indices extending gains on the back of trade optimism. However, with tariff-related uncertainty possibly returning in July, investors may need to brace for potential volatility ahead.

• Technical Outlook: S&P 500 The S&P 500 remains resilient and continues its upward trajectory. However, recent price action has slowed, possibly reflecting investor caution despite the positive sentiment.

Image Source: S&P 500, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5 A rising wedge pattern is forming—often a precursor to a potential reversal. Still, a bearish signal would only confirm on a breakdown below the lower trendline.

• Technical Outlook: Euro Stoxx 50 (EU50) In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 is showing similar behavior, consolidating near its record high following recent gains

Image Source: EU50, Daily Chart | Source: Ultima Market MT5 Expect consolidation to continue in the near term. However, any fresh updates on the Trump tariff situation could spark renewed volatility across the European and global equity markets.

Risk Factors to Watch

While markets remain tilted toward optimism due to progress in U.S.–China trade talks, underlying uncertainties still persist. Trade negotiations can shift suddenly, and nothing is guaranteed until concrete agreements are finalized. Moreover, U.S. fiscal risks remain a major concern. Especially as we approach July, when a significant volume of U.S. government bonds are set to mature. This could add renewed pressure on the bond market, potentially spilling over into broader market volatility if not handled with clarity and confidence by policymakers.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

[Joshen_Stephen]

US CPI Softens, Rate Cut Hopes Rise: How Are US-Iran Tensions Impacting Safe-Havens & Oil?

Financial markets saw mixed sentiment this week. U.S. inflation data came in cooler than expected , while rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East rattled investor confidence. This combination of softening consumer price inflation and escalating U.S.–Iran tensions created a tug-of-war across asset classes, notably in safe-haven flows, energy markets, and bond yields.

U.S. CPI Cools Slightly in May, Boosting Rate Cut Hopes

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% YoY in May , slightly above April’s 2.3% but in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, Core CPI remained steady at 2.8% YoY, with monthly growth at just 0.1%, both coming in softer than expected. Despite inflation staying slightly elevated, the persistent disinflationary momentum is viewed positively by investors. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Markets, noted that this allows the Fed some breathing room and opens the door for potential rate cuts later this year. According to CME FedWatch, markets are now pricing in a 61.6% probability of a rate cut in the September FOMC meeting —up sharply from just 41% a month ago.

• Target Rate Probabilities for Sep 2025 Fed Meeting
  
  
  

Image Source: Target Rate Probabilities for September Meeting; Source: CME Fedwatch

US-Iran Tensions Reignite Middle East Risk: Safe-Haven & Oil Surges

Adding to the volatility, tensions between the United States and Iran intensified on Wednesday. The U.S. ordered a partial evacuation of personnel from its embassies in Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait, citing increased threats from Iranian-linked forces. Meanwhile, Iran’s Defense Ministry warned that any further provocation from the U.S. could lead to retaliatory strikes on American bases across the Gulf region. This marks the most serious flare-up since late 2023 , triggering fresh fears over geopolitical instability, oil production disruptions and potential threats to global shipping lanes.

Commodity prices surged as gold rallied on rising safe-haven demand , while concerns over potential oil supply disruptions drove a strong rebound in crude prices from their multi-year lows. Crude oil jumped sharply and traded at its highest levels in more than two months. Brent crude oil surged to a two-month high, regaining ground above the $69 mark and approaching the $70 level. Any further escalation in geopolitical risk could disrupt oil production and trigger another spike in energy prices. Technically, the key levels to watch now lie in the $69–$70 per barrel range. A confirmed breakout above this zone could pave the way for further upside in oil prices.

• Technical Outlook: UKOUSD(Brent)
  
  
  

Image Source: UKOUSD (Brent), Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

• Technical Outlook: XAUUSD(Gold)
  
  
  

Image Source: XAUUSD (Gold), 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

As for gold, despite briefly attempting to break lower, the $3,300 level held firm, with buyers eventually overpowering the sellers. Gold continued to see upside momentum as geopolitical tensions acted as a fresh catalyst for renewed safe-haven buying. For now, gold may retest the $3,400 level or move even higher, especially if the geopolitical situation escalates into a broader regional conflict.

Outlook: Cautious Optimism, But Risks Loom

While markets welcomed the soft inflation print, rising geopolitical tensions and persistent fiscal risks in the U.S. are keeping investors on edge. The U.S.–Iran standoff has added a fresh layer of uncertainty just as U.S.–China trade negotiations appeared to make tentative progress. Investors will now turn their attention to upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data, weekly jobless claims, and the Fed’s June policy meeting , which could shape expectations for interest rates and risk sentiment heading into the summer.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Middle East Tensions Escalate: Israel Strikes Iran, Oil and Gold Surge

Markets were roiled overnight as geopolitical risk surged following Israel’s large-scale military operation against Iran. The strikes—which targeted Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, top military personnels, and nuclear scientists—marked a significant escalation in Middle East tension and triggered a surge in safe-haven assets and energy prices.

Israel Launches Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear & Missile Sites

On Thursday night, Israel launched coordinated strikes across Iran, bombing nuclear and missile facilities and conducting covert operations against air defense systems. Multiple high-ranking Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists were reported killed, including IRGC commander Gen. Hossein Salami. The operation, confirmed by Israeli officials as a pre-emptive strike, was conducted without direct U.S. support. In fact, President Trump publicly opposed the strikes, emphasizing that a nuclear deal with Iran was still achievable. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region.” Both Iran and Israel are now on high alert, with airspace closures, evacuation of diplomats, and full military preparedness across the region.

Market Reaction: Commodities Surge, Risk Appetite Sours

Oil and gold prices surged as traders rapidly priced in the risk of broader regional conflict and potential disruption in oil supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which carries over 20% of global crude flows.

• WTI crude jumped to a new 4-month high above $75, extending a sharp rebound from recent lows.
• Brent crude rose above the key $79 per barrel mark, nearing $80.
• Gold (XAUUSD) rebounded strongly above $3,400 as safe-haven demand accelerated.
• USDJPY extending its downside below 145.00, traded at 143 as of this writing.

Investors Guidance: Risk Aversions are Back?

This escalation has reintroduced geopolitical risk aversion into oil and gold, and traders are pricing in for potential wider conflict. Investors should remain cautious of further developments:

• Iran’s retaliation could come in the form of missile or drone strikes against U.S. or Israeli’s bases;
• Energy markets will likely see elevated volatility until clarity emerges;
• Safe-haven bias may strengthen further if the U.S. is dragged into the conflict or if regional allies respond militarily.

Technical Outlook for Oil

• Brent crude oil (UKOUSD)
  
  
  

Image Source: UKOUSD, Day Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5 Brent crude oil has surged sharply, breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern and decisively clearing the key psychological resistance at $70.00 amid intensifying Middle East tensions. Price action has broken above the triangle and the $70 marks as this bullish move coincides with a strong surge in geopolitical risk. Brent oil is expected to remain volatile and tilted higher as long as geopolitical tensions persist and the $70 support holds.

• WTI crude(USOUSD)
  
  
  

Image Source: USOUSD, Day Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5 Meanwhile the WTI also staged a strong reversal, surging past multi resistance level. Price has broken through the $66.00 key level and has now surged above $72.5, a key prior high from March. The price broke out from a prolonged consolidation range between $66.00 and $72.75, and strong move from its multi-year low below $66 suggest that further upside is likely if conflict risks persist. Despite the sharp upside breakout and the strong technical reversal signals, investors should exercise caution. This surge is largely driven by sudden geopolitical developments, and it remains uncertain whether the rally can be sustained if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes or de-escalates in the coming days.

Outlook: Cautious Optimism, But Risks Loom

While markets welcomed the soft inflation print, rising geopolitical tensions and persistent fiscal risks in the U.S. are keeping investors on edge. The U.S.–Iran standoff has added a fresh layer of uncertainty just as U.S.–China trade negotiations appeared to make tentative progress. Investors will now turn their attention to upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data, weekly jobless claims, and the Fed’s June policy meeting, which could shape expectations for interest rates and risk sentiment heading into the summer.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Middle East Conflict Intensifies: Israel and Iran Exchange Blows, Global Equities Cautiously Higher, Oil Surges – What’s Next?

Global equities opened broadly higher on Monday , despite rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East where tensions between Israel and Iran escalated further over the weekend. The situation worsened on Sunday, with both sides engaging in retaliatory attacks.

Market Overview: Middle East Tensions and Market Reaction

On Friday, global equity markets slipped while oil prices surged sharply, following Israel’s large-scale strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities. These latest exchanges reportedly resulted in civilian casualties and heightened fears of a wider regional conflict, as both militaries issued warnings to civilians on the opposing side to take safety precautions.

Investors are increasingly concerned about potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic shipping route that handles roughly 20% of the world’s total oil consumption. Any extended military confrontation in the region could significantly disrupt oil flows and further elevate energy prices.

Geopolitical Uncertainty Remains High

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he hoped Israel and Iran could reach a ceasefire, but added that “sometimes countries have to fight it out first.” He reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel but declined to comment on whether he had urged Israel to halt its strikes. The Middle East conflict is expected to be a key topic at this week’s Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada. German Chancellor Merz expressed hope that G7 leaders could reach a consensus on how to help de-escalate the situation. However, Iran has firmly stated that it will not engage in ceasefire negotiations while under active attack by Israel—adding further uncertainty to the geopolitical outlook.

Oil prices rallied sharply on Friday, with Brent crude settling at $74.80 per barrel and WTI closing at $73.20. In intraday trading, WTI crude spiked over 14%, hitting its highest level since January, while Brent rose nearly 12% for the week.

Global Equities: Cautious Optimism Amid Rising Risks

Global equity markets faced broad selling pressure last Friday, leading to declines across major indices. However, despite escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend, Asian markets opened higher on Monday, and futures in Europe and the U.S. also edged up. Still, investor sentiment remains fragile. With several key central bank decisions on the horizon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, market nerves could resurface quickly. Any sudden shift in risk appetite or policy tone may trigger renewed volatility across global markets.

• Technical Outlook: S&P 500 As highlighted earlier, the S&P 500’s bullish momentum has started to wane. A rising wedge pattern had formed near the critical 6000 level—often a bearish reversal signal.
  
  
  

Image Source: SP500, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Last week, the index broke below this pattern. And although Monday’s open saw a brief rebound, failure to reclaim the 6000 level could open the door to further downside, especially if global sentiment deteriorates further.

• Technical Outlook: EuroStoxx50
  
  
  

Image Source: EU50, Day-Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

The EU50 index has broken below a key ascending wedge structure, signaling a potential bearish reversal. The breakdown comes after multiple failed attempts to breach the upper resistance zone near 5430–5450, which aligns with the upper bound of the multi-month consolidation range.

Summary

While escalating Middle East tensions may not be the primary drag on equities, broader market caution persists due to upcoming central bank decisions and ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade and fiscal policies. For now, investors are likely to remain on the sidelines, with risk appetite fragile. Any negative developments—geopolitical or macroeconomic—could quickly sour sentiment and trigger renewed volatility.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

[Joshen_Stephen]

Geopolitical Risks & Central Bank Decisions Ahead: Global Markets Open Cautiously, USDJPY in Focus

Global financial markets started the week on a cautious note, as investors weighed rising geopolitical tensions against a backdrop of major central bank decisions. Monday’s muted open reflects a fragile balance between risk appetite and defensive positioning.

Market Overview

Wall Street futures dipped slightly in early trading, while European benchmarks remained broadly flat. In Asia, equities opened higher but struggled to sustain gains as market participants shifted focus to geopolitical headlines and upcoming policy signals. In the currency market, the U.S. dollar edged higher against major peers, supported by safe-haven flows amid intensifying Middle East tensions and anticipation of key policy updates from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. The Japanese yen held steady around the 145 level versus the U.S. dollar, showing resilience as speculation mounts over the BOJ’s policy path. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened, reflecting broader cautious sentiment.

Central Bank Watch: BOJ and Fed in Focus

This week’s monetary policy calendar is headlined by the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve—both of which could shape market direction through summer.

• BOJ Outlook: The BOJ is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will be watching for any shift in tone, particularly regarding its bond-buying program and inflation outlook. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments will be scrutinized for clues about whether the central bank is preparing to tighten policy more clearly, especially as trade tensions begin to ease.
• Fed Policy: The Fed convenes midweek with its rate decision due Wednesday. Softer May CPI and cooling labor market data have reinforced expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold. However, markets are keen to hear Chair Powell’s guidance on future cuts—potentially as early as September. Any surprise hawkish tone could challenge the recent weakening trend in the U.S. dollar and reprice rate expectations.

Geopolitical Risk: Middle East Escalation Raises Caution

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified over the weekend following Israel’s strikes on Iranian infrastructure. In response, President Trump ordered partial evacuations of U.S. personnel in Tehran and cut short his participation in the G7 summit in Canada—highlighting the severity of the situation. China has also urged its citizens to leave Israel urgently, further emphasizing the perceived risks of a broader regional escalation. Despite the seriousness of the developments, market reactions have been relatively contained so far, as investors could largely expecting a diplomatic approach in prevent a full-blown conflict.

USDJPY: Consolidation Amid Mixed Outlook

The USDJPY pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, trading just below the key resistance level at 145.00. Price action has been relatively muted despite rising geopolitical tensions and the approaching Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve meetings—two major catalysts that could soon break the current range.

Image Source: USDJPY, 4-H Chart Analysis | Source: Ultima Market MT5

Market Drivers:

• BOJ Outlook: If the BOJ hints at policy tightening or signals reduced bond purchases, it could strengthen the yen and push USDJPY lower.
• Fed Policy: Conversely, if the Fed delivers a hawkish tone—despite cooling inflation data—it may lift the dollar, supporting a breakout above 145.00.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.

[Joshen_Stephen]

BOJ Holds Rates, Unveils Gradual Tapering Plan Amid Global Uncertainties

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% on Tuesday, maintaining its highest level in 17 years while signaling a cautious approach toward policy normalization. The decision was unanimous, extending the pause in rate hikes since the 25-basis point increase in January. In its June meeting, the BOJ also outlined a clear tapering plan for its Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases—a move seen as the central bank’s next step in unwinding years of ultra-loose policy without unsettling markets.

BOJ’s Gradual Tapering

Under the new plan, the BOJ will reduce JGB purchases by ¥400 billion per quarter through March 2026, then taper more slowly at ¥200 billion per quarter until March 2027. The central bank aims to shrink its JGB holdings by about 17% by that time, including natural maturities. The plan was approved by an 8-1 vote. This gradual approach signals the BOJ’s intent to normalize monetary policy while minimizing the risk of market disruption, particularly in the bond and foreign exchange markets.

Ueda’s Cautious Tone

In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone, highlighting external risks such as U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. He emphasized that future rate decisions will be data-dependent, hinging on whether inflation can sustainably exceed the 2% target. While Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, some weakness remains, particularly in consumption. Ueda noted that inflation expectations have risen moderately, but the BOJ still sees underlying inflation expectation below target.

Ueda also warned that the latest U.S. trade tariffs could weigh on Japan’s wage growth and corporate bonus outlook, potentially stalling the momentum needed for policy tightening. Meanwhile, ongoing instability in the Middle East could keep oil and food prices elevated, feeding into broader inflation expectations. In response to questions about bond market stability, Ueda reaffirmed that the BOJ stands ready to intervene with fixed-rate bond operations or liquidity tools if long-term yields spike abruptly.

Outlook: Normalization Pace Slows

With its cautious guidance and tapering plan, the Bank of Japan is clearly signaling that monetary policy normalization will remain gradual and data-dependent. While the central bank continues to leave the door open for future tightening, the slightly more cautious tone—particularly on global risks—has tempered market expectations for another rate hike in the near term. Shawn, Senior Analyst at Ultima Markets, stated: “Given the BOJ’s growing caution around external uncertainties, the normalization timeline may now be pushed further out.” Shawn added: “If inflation evolves in line with BOJ projections, the next rate hike is likely to come no earlier than Q4 2025.”

Market Reaction: JGB Yields Slight Uptick

Image Source: JGB 10-Year Bond Yields; Source: Ultima Market

The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield saw a slight uptick following the BoJ press conference, as markets interpreted the announced tapering of bond purchases as a potential step toward future policy tightening. Investors are beginning to price in the possibility of higher interest rates ahead, which pushed long-term yields modestly higher. Over the longer term, sustained yield increases could also lend support to the Japanese Yen.

Author：Joshen Stephen｜Senior Market Analyst at Ultima Markets

Disclaimer

Comments, news, research, analysis, price, and all information contained in the article only serve as general information for readers and do not suggest any advice. Ultima Markets has taken reasonable measures to provide up-to-date information, but cannot guarantee accuracy, and may modify without notice. Ultima Markets will not be responsible for any loss incurred due to the application of the information provided.