Wall Street Slips From Record Highs as Oil and Yields Climb, USD/CAD Hits 1.4245 Near an 18-Month Peak and Gold Tests $4,107 Ahead of FOMC Minutes
U.S. stocks opened lower on Wednesday, a day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, as crude and Treasury yields rose. The S&P 500 fell about 0.4–0.5%, the Dow 0.6–0.9% and the Nasdaq about 0.6–0.7% in early trade. The 10-year yield is near 5.33%, just under Monday’s 5.349% peak (the highest since 2002), the dollar index is near 102.4 and WTI is about $89.6 with Brent near $101. The $39bn 10-year auction and the 18:00 GMT FOMC minutes from the September meeting, where the Fed hiked 25bp, are the next tests. October hike odds are about 20%. Snapshot taken around 14:15 GMT (10:15 ET).
Market at a Glance
| Instrument | Price | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | 1.4245 | +0.36% | Near the 1.4293 peak set on 5 October — near an 18-month high — US-Canada 10-year gap about 135bp |
| USD/CHF | 0.8323 | +0.15% | Third straight advance, close to its highest since May 2025 — SNB at 0% while the Fed has hiked |
| Gold | $4,107 | -1.10% | After a $4,104 low — yields and dollar firming — more than 25% below January’s near-$5,600 record |
| WTI Crude | $89.59 | +0.01% | Brent about $101.1 — rising Gulf exports compete with Houthi strikes, Hormuz incidents and a storm threat |
| Nasdaq 100 | 31,031 | -0.60% | Retreating a day after record closes — Nasdaq Composite down about 0.6–0.7% — level is an estimate |
| US 10-Year | 5.33% | +3bp | Near Monday’s 5.349% peak, the highest since 2002 — $39bn auction tests long-end demand |
| Bitcoin | $82,930 | -2.90% | Fell as much as 2.4% to $83,583 earlier — about $550m of mostly long positions liquidated |
| XRP | $1.425 | -4.20% | Third straight daily loss — futures open interest down to 3.4bn XRP — spot ETF inflows only $3m on Tuesday |
What Is Driving the Session
Fed, yields and the dollar
After September’s 25bp hike, weak payrolls (+29,000) and softer PCE cut October hike odds to about 20%, yet markets still price more than three hikes over 12 months. The 10-year is near 5.33% and the dollar index near 102.4. The yield gap is lifting USD/CAD, where the US-Canada 10-year gap is about 135bp, and USD/CHF, where the SNB sits at 0% while the Fed has hiked. Gold is capped by yields despite central-bank buying.
Wall Street and AI earnings
Record closes on Tuesday were driven by AI stocks and expectations of close to 30% S&P 500 earnings growth in Q3. Futures eased on Wednesday as investors weighed that against higher yields and oil. The Nasdaq 100 closed Tuesday at a record 31,261.57 (+0.6%) on Nvidia and Microsoft-led AI gains and is now giving some back as the 10-year yield returns toward 5.35%.
Oil and Middle East supply
Brent is near $101 on Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities and a Gulf storm. Gulf exports have recovered to about 81% of pre-war levels, the East-West pipeline is moving 5.8m bpd and the G7 pledged a 100m-barrel stock release. API data showed a 2.09m-barrel crude draw, and EIA stocks were due at 14:30 GMT.
Safe havens and crypto
Gold is at the bottom of its $4,100–$4,200 range, the franc lags on the SNB’s 0% rate, and crypto is in a leverage flush with about $550m liquidated and spot ETF flows mixed. Bitcoin is on a third straight daily decline after rejection at $87,200 supply, and XRP is testing the $1.45 demand zone.
Trade Setups
All levels are conditional technical references for educational discussion only. They are not forecasts and do not constitute personal investment advice. The 10-year auction and the FOMC minutes can reverse any of these positions sharply.
USD/CAD — 1.4245 (+0.36%)
Stance: Bullish above 1.4200 — 1.4293 is the 18-month high to clear
Levels
- Support: 1.4200 / 1.4085
- Resistance: 1.4293 / 1.4400
Thesis
USD/CAD has rallied from 1.3730 to 1.4292 and stalled at the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4791–1.3480 decline, so 1.4290–1.4293 is the cap. RSI near 69 is stretched, yet price holds above the 100-day SMA near 1.4005 and the Bollinger midline near 1.4085. Higher oil is giving the Canadian dollar little help because the yield gap dominates.
Exit if
- Soft minutes pull the pair to 1.4200 and 1.4085.
- A clean break above 1.4293 opens 1.4400 (round number) instead.
- Canada’s employment report on Friday shifts the picture.
USD/CHF — 0.8323 (+0.15%)
Stance: Bullish while above 0.8245 — 0.8365 is the range cap
Levels
- Support: 0.8245 / 0.8200
- Resistance: 0.8365 / 0.8400
Thesis
UOB sees USD/CHF in a 0.8245–0.8365 range, and price sits in its upper half, well above the 200-day SMA near 0.7951. French debt worries gave the franc some haven support, but the rate gap and firmer oil favour the dollar. R2 and S2 are round-number references.
Exit if
- A slip under 0.8245 exposes 0.8200.
- A hold above 0.8245 keeps 0.8365 in view, and a break above it targets 0.8400.
- French fiscal stress strengthens franc haven demand.
Gold (XAU/USD) — $4,107 (-1.10%)
Stance: Bearish below $4,170 — $4,100 support is being tested
Levels
- Support: $4,104 / $4,000
- Resistance: $4,170 / $4,263
Thesis
Gold trades at the bottom of its $4,100–$4,200 range and under the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs near $4,332, $4,268 and $4,531, a bearish structure. Central-bank buying and ETF demand cap the downside, but a 5.3% US 10-year yield and the dollar index near 102.4 weigh. $4,263 is the 20-day Bollinger average.
Exit if
- A hold of $4,104 keeps a rebound toward $4,170 and $4,263 possible.
- A break targets $4,000.
- Hawkish minutes raise breakdown risk.
Crude Oil (WTI) — $89.59 (+0.01%)
Stance: Two-way — bullish above $90.64, soft under $88
Levels
- Support: $88.00 / $86.89
- Resistance: $90.64 / $92.71
Thesis
WTI rebounded from $86.89 and faces its first recovery test at $90.64, with $92.71 next. Gulf exports are about 81% of pre-war levels and the East-West pipeline is moving 5.8m bpd, while the EIA raised its price forecasts. API data showed a 2.09m-barrel crude draw.
Exit if
- A break above $90.64 favours $92.71.
- Failure there and a slip under $88 points to $86.89.
- A crude build and rising Gulf exports weigh on prices.
Nasdaq 100 — 31,031 (-0.60%)
Stance: Bullish trend — pullback risk below 30,950
Levels
- Support: 30,950 / 30,800
- Resistance: 31,262 / 31,500
Thesis
The Nasdaq 100 closed Tuesday at a record 31,261.57 on Nvidia and Microsoft-led AI gains and is now giving some back as the 10-year yield returns toward 5.35%. Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth is expected near 30%, which supports dips. R1 is Tuesday’s record close. The index level is an estimate from the Composite’s move and futures.
Exit if
- A slide through 30,950 targets 30,800.
- A hold of 30,950 keeps the uptrend.
- The 10-year yield pushes through 5.35%.
US 10Y Yield — 5.33% (+3bp)
Stance: Bullish yields while above 5.28% — 5.349% is the 2002-high test
Levels
- Support: 5.28% / 5.20%
- Resistance: 5.349% / 5.40%
Thesis
The yield bounced after Tuesday’s modest pullback and sits within a few basis points of Monday’s 5.349% high. Weak September payrolls (+29,000) cut October hike odds to about 20%, but December still carries a high probability and higher long yields already tighten conditions. S2 and R2 are round numbers.
Exit if
- A break above 5.349% opens 5.40%.
- Dovish minutes and a strong auction pull it to 5.28% and 5.20%.
- Weak demand at the $39bn auction extends the selloff.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) — $82,930 (-2.90%)
Stance: Bearish below $84,500 — $83,000 is key support
Levels
- Support: $83,000 / $78,000
- Resistance: $84,500 / $87,200
Thesis
Bitcoin is on a third straight daily decline after rejection at $87,200 supply. Analyst Pratik Kala flags $78,000 as the next support if $83,000 gives way, while the 2025 buyer cohort’s cost basis near $88,000 is overhead resistance. A hawkish read of the minutes could lift yields and the dollar and keep pressure on risk assets.
Exit if
- Price loses $83,000, exposing $78,000.
- Holding $83,000 allows a bounce toward $84,500 and $87,200.
- Further leverage liquidations follow the roughly $550m flush.
XRP (XRP/USD) — $1.425 (-4.20%)
Stance: Bearish below $1.50 — $1.45 and $1.30 are the supports
Levels
- Support: $1.45 / $1.30
- Resistance: $1.50 / $1.60
Thesis
XRP is testing the $1.45 area where buyers may re-engage, with the 50-day EMA the next support and the SuperTrend near $1.30 as the deeper floor. RSI is in the low 50s and MACD is slipping under zero, so momentum is fading. R1 and R2 are round-number references.
Exit if
- A break of $1.45 risks $1.30.
- A bounce needs a reclaim of $1.50, then $1.60.
- Spot ETF inflows stay thin.
What to Watch — Rest of the Day and This Week
| Time | Event | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Today 14:30 GMT | US EIA crude inventories | API showed a 2.09m-barrel draw; Cushing stocks gained in the private data |
| Today (US session) | US $39bn 10-year note auction | Tests demand with yields near 5.3% |
| Today 18:00 GMT | US FOMC minutes (September meeting) | Depth of debate on further hikes; October hike odds about 20% |
| Thu 8 Oct | US jobless claims; 30-year auction | Long-end demand and labour-market cooling |
| Fri 9 Oct | CA / US Canada employment report; UMich sentiment | Key for USD/CAD at its 18-month high; inflation expectations |
| 27–28 Oct | US FOMC meeting | Hold priced as the base case |
| 28 Oct | FR 2027 budget | French fiscal stress feeds franc demand and euro weakness |
Analyst View — Rest of Session and Into the Next
The U.S. session opens defensively. A firm dollar, high yields and an oil rebound after Tuesday’s record close explain the retreat in the Nasdaq 100, gold and crypto. The 10-year auction and the 18:00 GMT FOMC minutes are the next tests.
The minutes are expected to show a broader debate than September’s unanimous hike. Hawkish language on a December move would lift the 10-year toward 5.40%, push USD/CAD through 1.4293, and weigh on gold ($4,000), the Nasdaq 100 (30,800), Bitcoin ($78,000) and XRP ($1.30). A restrained tone could pull USD/CAD to 1.4200 and gold back to $4,170. Weak demand at the $39bn auction would extend the bond selloff, and WTI is the swing factor: a break above $90.64 on Gulf storm or Houthi headlines would feed inflation fears, while a crude build and rising Gulf exports would favour $88.
Thursday and Friday keep the pressure on. Jobless claims and the 30-year auction test the long end again, then Canada’s labour report and UMich sentiment on Friday decide whether USD/CAD can clear its 18-month high. Treat every level above as conditional, and size positions for fast-moving auction, FOMC and oil headlines.
For informational and educational purposes only; not investment advice. Trading CFDs, FX, futures and crypto-assets involves significant risk of loss. Levels are conditional technical references, not forecasts. Prices are time-stamped snapshots (about 14:15 GMT); the Nasdaq 100 level is an estimate and day changes for gold, oil and the 10-year are approximate. Verify against live quotes before trading.
Read the full report: capitalstreetfx.com/market-analysis/u-s-session-report-wall-street-slips-7-october-2026