Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Commercial Content Analysts
442

USD

The US dollar barely reacted to the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, as the report didn’t contain anything new from the actual interest rate statement. The report confirmed that a June interest rate hike is unlikely, although FOMC members didn’t junk the possibility entirely. They mentioned that they would proceed on a meeting-by-meeting basis and that they won’t provide any forward guidance on tightening. For today, US existing home sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing index are lined up, with strong data likely to support the Greenback.

EUR

The euro paused from its recent slide yesterday, since there were no additional reports or updates to keep the selloff going. Market watchers are still waiting for any updates on the Greek debt talks and whether or not the country can dodge a default with their next set of payments due soon. For now, traders will have to take their cues from the release of German and French manufacturing and services PMI readings. Improvements are expected from France while Germany’s data could show small declines. Also due today are the minutes of the latest ECB meeting.

GBP

The pound drew a bit of support from the recently released BOE meeting minutes, although the report showed that policymakers voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged. The UK retail sales are up for release today and this should show whether or not the slump in price levels is translating to a pickup in consumer spending. Analysts are counting on a 0.4% rebound from the previous 0.5% decline, with strong figures likely to push the pound higher.

CHF

The franc stalled in its latest slide, as the currency waited for more direction from the euro. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, indicating that further consolidation could be possible.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to the dollar and most of its forex counterparts, as risk appetite seemed to return to the financial markets yesterday. Japan’s preliminary GDP reading came in better than expected at 0.6% for Q1 2015, higher than the consensus of a 0.4% growth figure. However, the previous quarter’s reading was downgraded from 0.6% to 0.4%. Earlier today, Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI printed a stronger than expected reading of 50.9, reflecting a return to industry expansion.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls brushed off their recent losses yesterday and managed to hold on to their current levels against the dollar and the yen. New Zealand inflation expectations showed an improvement from 1.8% to 1.9% but the dairy auction revealed another price drop of 2.2%. In Australia, the Westpac consumer sentiment index revealed a 6.4% pickup. Earlier today, the Chinese HSBC flash manufacturing PMI showed a 49.1 reading, slightly weaker than the projected 49.4 figure. No other reports are lined up from the comdolls today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

443

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance, as it functioned as a counter currency in recent sessions. Data from the US economy came in weaker than expected once more, as the flash manufacturing PMI dipped from 54.1 to 53.8 while the Philly Fed index dropped from 7.5 to 6.7 instead of improving to the estimated 8.1 reading. Existing home sales data was also subpar, as the figure fell from 5.21M to 5.04M instead of increasing to the projected 5.23M figure. US CPI figures are due today and the headline figure could show a 0.1% uptick while the core figure might show a 0.2% gain. Fed head Yellen is also set to give a testimony today and possibly spur additional volatility among dollar pairs.

EUR

The euro continued to slump against its currency rivals in yesterday’s trading, as PMI readings from the region’s top economies were mostly below expectations. German flash manufacturing PMI fell from 52.1 to 51.4, lower than the projected 51.9 reading, while the services PMI slipped from 54.0 to 52.9, lower than the projected 53.9 figure. In France, the flash manufacturing PMI improved from 48.0 to 49.3 while the services PMI climbed from 51.4 to 51.6, short of the 52.0 consensus. Euro zone consumer confidence dipped from -5 to -6 instead of holding steady. For today, a speech by ECB Governor Draghi and the German Ifo business climate are lined up.

GBP

The pound recovered from its recent selloff, thanks to stronger than expected UK retail sales. The report showed a 1.2% gain versus the projected 0.4% uptick and the previous 0.7% decline. However, CBI industrial orders slumped from 1 to -5 instead of showing an improvement to 3. Today, data on public sector net borrowing is due, along with a speech by BOE Governor Carney.

CHF

The franc resumed its drop against most of its forex rivals, although it managed to squeeze out a few gains against the euro. There have been no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are lined up today, suggesting that the franc might continue to move to the tune of risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen recouped some of its recent losses, as traders booked profits ahead of today’s BOJ interest rate statement. No actual monetary policy changes are expected but it would be interesting to see if Governor Kuroda will maintain his optimistic outlook, given the ongoing downturn in Japan.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls bounced off their recent lows, thanks to a slight pickup in risk appetite yesterday. There have been no major reports out of the comdoll economies then while today has the CPI and retail sales figures due from Canada.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

444

USD

The US dollar regained ground before the end of the trading day on Friday, as Yellen’s speech reassured market watchers that the US economy is on track with its recovery. Data from the US was also slightly better than expected, as the core CPI showed a higher than expected 0.3% gain while the headline figure came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick. US banks are on holiday for Memorial Day today, which means that there are no reports lined up from the economy.

EUR

The euro continued its slide in recent sessions, as risk aversion favored the lower-yielding currencies. Data from the euro zone came in line with expectations, with the German Ifo index dipping from 108.6 to 108.5 and the country’s final GDP reading unchanged at 0.3%. Euro zone banks are also closed in observance of Whit Monday today so there are no reports due from the region.

GBP

The pound suffered a nasty selloff last Friday, even though the public sector net borrowing report came in better than expected. A couple of MPC members, namely BOE Governor Carney and Deputy Governor Nemat Shafik, gave testimonies then and the latter talked about the risks associated with altering the yield curve through rate changes. There are no reports lined up from the UK since banks are closed for the holiday.

CHF

The franc continued its slide to the dollar in recent trading sessions, as there were no reports to keep the Swiss currency supported last Friday. There are still no reports lined up from Switzerland today, leaving the franc sensitive to risk flows.

JPY

The yen advanced to most of its currency rivals thanks to risk aversion but gave up ground to the US dollar. The BOJ didn’t make any changes with its monetary policy, although one member voted to taper asset purchases. Meanwhile, policymakers also decided to upgrade their outlook for household spending and housing investment, lending more support for the yen. Earlier today, Japan released a stronger than expected trade balance report.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave up a lot of ground at the end of the trading week, as Yellen’s speech drove up demand for the dollar once more. It didn’t help that Canada’s reports came in mixed, with a stronger than expected headline retail sales gain of 0.7% and a weaker than expected core figure of 0.5%. CPI data was also mixed, as the headline figure showed a 0.1% drop and the core figure came in line with expectations of a 0.1% gain. There are no reports due from these economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

445

USD

The US dollar was able to chalk up a few gains against its forex counterparts in recent trading, even as banks were closed in celebration of Memorial Day. There have been no economic reports released from the US at the start of the week, leaving risk sentiment as the main driver of price action. For today, durable goods orders data are up for release and smaller gains are expected. Note though that previous readings have been upgraded to show a 0.3% increase in the core figure and a 4.7% gain in the headline figure. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.5% increase in the core figure and a 0.4% dip for the headline figure in April.

EUR

The euro was still in a weak spot against most of its forex rivals, as concerns about a Greek debt default weighed on the shared currency. There have been no reports released from the euro zone yesterday since banks were closed in celebration of Whit Monday. There are still no reports due from the region today, which suggests that Greek debt updates might push the shared currency around.

GBP

The pound suffered another quick selloff at the start of the week, despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. It seems that traders aren’t too happy about the downturn in price levels for the UK economy, as this could lead to a delay in a potential BOE rate hike. For today, the CBI realized sales report is due and an uptick from 12 to 18 is eyed.

CHF

The franc continued its slide to most of its forex rivals, as there have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday. Today has the employment level data on tap and a drop from 4.23M to 4.21M is expected, which might lead to more losses for the franc.

JPY

The yen lost ground to the dollar but was able to advance against its other forex rivals, thanks to the onset of risk aversion. Data from Japan has been better than expected yesterday, as the economy reported a smaller than expected trade deficit. Earlier today, the country reported a stronger than expected 0.7% gain in its SPPI, suggesting a potential pickup in inflation.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were generally weaker at the start of the week, as the selloff was buoyed by risk-off flows. There were no reports released from the comdoll economies then and none are due today, suggesting that risk sentiment could continue dictating price action.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

446

USD

The return of US traders from their Memorial Day vacation was enough to usher in strong demand for the dollar, which was able to break to new highs against the Japanese yen. Data from the US came in line with expectations, as the headline durable goods orders report showed a 0.5% decline while the core figure indicated a 0.5% gain. CB consumer confidence also met expectations of a 95.4 reading, although the previous reading was downgraded. There are no reports due from the US economy today.

EUR

The euro was able to put a stopper on its latest bleeding, as news reports suggested that Greece might still be able to meet its next set of loan obligations to the IMF in June. There have been no reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has the German GfK consumer climate index on tap. The reading is slated to fall from 10.1 to 10.0, which would reflect a small dip in confidence. Weaker than expected data could lead to more losses for the shared currency.

GBP

The pound suffered a sharper selloff against the dollar in recent trading, despite the stronger than expected report from the UK. The CBI realized sales report showed a gain from 12 to 51, higher than the projected reading at 18 and indicative of stronger consumer spending down the line. There are no reports lined up from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc continued to sell off against its forex rivals since the Swiss employment level barely budged from 4.23 million reading instead of improving to the estimated 4.21 million figure. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator is up for release today and a reading lower than the previous 1.35 figure might lead to more declines for the franc.

JPY

The yen traded mostly lower against its forex rivals, as traders priced in the odds of seeing another round of weak figures from Japan later on. There have been no major reports out of Japan yesterday while today’s release of the BOJ meeting minutes contained no surprises.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls raked in more losses upon the return of US and European traders to their desks yesterday. New Zealand’s trade balance showed a larger than expected surplus but components of the report still revealed a sizeable decline in exports, particularly to China. Earlier today, Australia reported a 2.4% slide in quarterly construction work done, worse than the projected 1.5% dip. Later today, the BOC will announce its rate statement and any change in bias could push the Loonie around.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

447

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its currency counterparts, most notably the yen and the Canadian dollar, even though there were no economic reports released from the US. For today, the initial jobless claims report is up for release and it might show a smaller reading of 272K compared to the previous 274K. Also lined up is the pending home sales figure, which might indicate a 0.8% uptick, and the crude oil inventories data.

EUR

The euro managed to recover against its currency rivals when news that Greece might still be able to make its next set of debt payments in June. Data from the euro zone was also slightly stronger than expected, with Germany printing a GfK consumer climate index of 10.2, higher than the previous 10.0 reading and the estimated 10.1 figure. Only the German import prices data is up for release today, which might not have a strong impact on euro action.

GBP

The pound was able to recover off its recent lows, even though there were no major reports out of the UK yesterday. Traders probably booked profits ahead of today’s UK second estimate GDP release, which might show a revision from 0.3% to 0.4% and allow the pound to regain more ground. Also lined up is the preliminary business investment report for the first quarter, which might indicate a 1.2% rebound.

CHF

The franc trimmed its losses in recent trading, despite the downturn in the UBS consumption indicator from 1.34 to 1.25. For today, the Swiss trade balance is up for release and an improvement from 2.52 billion CHF to 2.77 billion CHF is eyed, which might allow the franc to recover.

JPY

The yen gave up more ground to the dollar and some of its forex rivals, as traders took in the latest retail sales disappointment from the country. Retail sales showed a 5.0% annualized gain, lower than the projected 5.3% increase, but still a recovery from the previous 9.7% drop. Note, however, that this is based on post-sales tax hike data.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls suffered another fresh wave of selling in recent sessions, thanks to a slightly downbeat BOC statement and a disappointing read on Australia’s private capital expenditure report for the first quarter. The BOC kept rates unchanged as expected but cited that the Loonie’s appreciation is hurting exports and inflation. Meanwhile, Australia churned out a 4.4% slump in private capital expenditure, worse than the projected 2.3% slide. The Canadian current account balance is up for release later today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

448

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent gains when data from the economy came in mixed yesterday. Initial jobless claims data came in below expectations, showing a 282K increase versus the estimated 271K gain. Pending home sales came in better than expected though, as the report printed a 3.4% rise versus the projected 0.8% uptick. The US preliminary GDP reading is up for release today and the initially reported 0.2% expansion might be downgraded to show a 0.8% contraction. Also lined up today are the Chicago PMI and preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan.

EUR

The euro recovered to its currency counterparts in recent trading sessions, as traders still crossed their fingers that Greece can avoid defaulting on its loans. Data from the euro zone came in better than expected, with German import prices showing a larger than expected 0.6% increase. For today, German retail sales, French consumer spending, and Spanish preliminary GDP data are due.

GBP

The pound sold off slightly against some of its rivals when the UK GDP stayed unchanged at 0.3% during the release of the second estimate. Analysts had been expecting to see an improvement to 0.4%. GfK consumer confidence was also subpar, as the reading fell from 4 to 1 instead of holding steady as expected. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc managed to recover from its recent tumble, after the Swiss trade balance came in better than expected and showed a wider surplus of 2.86 billion CHF versus the projected 2.77 billion CHF surplus. Swiss GDP is due today and a flat reading is eyed. Also lined up is the Swiss KOF economic barometer, which might show a climb from 89.5 to 90.1.

JPY

The yen struggled to regain ground in recent trading sessions, getting an additional boost from today’s set of data. The national core CPI came in stronger than expected with a 0.3% uptick versus the projected 0.2% increase, still lower than the previous 2.2% reading, while the unemployment rate improved from 3.4% to 3.3%. Tokyo core CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.2% increase while household spending still disappointed with a 1.3% decline.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were in a much weaker spot in recent trading, as Austraila and New Zealand printed weak data. In Australia, the private capital expenditure report showed a worse than expected 4.4% slide for the first quarter. In New Zealand, Fonterra announced a milk payout forecast downgrade, which means lower earnings for dairy farmers. Canada’s current account balance came in better than expected, shielding the Loonie from worse losses. Earlier today, New Zealand reported a drop in its ANZ business confidence index from 30.2 to 15.7. Canadian monthly GDP is due later today and a flat reading is eyed for March.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

449

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against its forex counterparts at the end of the week, despite the profit-taking activity that occurred towards the end of the month. Data from the US economy came in slightly better than expected, as the preliminary GDP reading showed a smaller downgrade to a 0.7% contraction versus the projected -0.8% figure. The Chicago PMI turned out to be a disappointment since it indicated a return to industry contraction but this was offset by the stronger than expected consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan. The core PCE price index is due today, along with data on personal spending and income, as well as the ISM manufacturing PMI.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to some of its recent gains against its rivals, as market watchers still crossed their fingers that Greece can meet its debt obligations this month. Data from the region was mostly stronger than expected, with Germany printing a higher than expected retail sales figure and Spain showing a better than expected CPI reading. French consumer spending was weaker than expected at 0.1% versus the estimated 0.4% increase though, while the previous report suffered a downward revision. German preliminary CPI and final PMI readings from France and Germany are lined up today.

GBP

The pound made a quick bounce on Friday, even though there were no reports released from the UK economy. Today has the manufacturing PMI on tap and an improvement from 51.9 to 52.7 is eyed, which would reflect a faster pace of expansion in the sector. Weaker than expected data, however, might force the British currency to resume its slide.

CHF

The franc was able to squeeze out some gains on Friday, thanks to a few upbeat reports from Switzerland. The KOF economic barometer came in better than expected, as the reading climbed to 93.1, outpacing the consensus at 90.1. On top of that, the previous reading was upgraded to 89.8. However, the GDP came in below expectations and showed a 0.2% contraction instead of the expected flat reading. For today, the Swiss manufacturing PMI is due and a dip from 47.9 to 47.2 is eyed.

JPY

The yen weakened to its forex rivals on Friday, as Japan printed mixed reports. Inflation showed a bit of improvement, as the national core CPI marked a 0.3% gain versus the projected 0.2% uptick, while the jobless rate fell from 3.4% to 3.3%. However, household spending still fell short with a 1.3% decline versus the projected 3.1% increase. Earlier today, Japan’s final manufacturing PMI was released and it showed no change from the initially reported 50.9 figure.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to sell off against the dollar on Friday, thanks to risk aversion and expectations of further easing from their central banks. Canada printed a weaker than expected monthly GDP reading of -0.2% instead of showing a flat figure while the previous report was downgraded to show a 0.1% contraction. Earlier today, Australia reported a 4.4% drop in building approvals, worse than the projected 1.7% slide.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

450

USD

The US dollar continued to advance against most of its currency counterparts when risk aversion popped its head in the financial markets at the start of the week. Data from the US came in mixed, with the core PCE price index falling short of expectations with only a 0.1% uptick and the personal spending figure staying flat. The personal income reading showed a 0.4% gain, higher than the projected 0.3% increase, while the ISM manufacturing PMI also beat expectations with its climb from 51.5 to 52.8. US factory orders and a speech by FOMC member Brainard are scheduled today.

EUR

The euro struggled to hold on to its recent gains, with several forex market participants still hopeful that Greece can avoid a default this month. Talks between top-level EU officials seemed to result in a stronger agreement that a deal can be worked out to extend the bailout and prevent a Grexit from taking place. Economic data came in mostly stronger than expected also, with Germany showing a better than expected preliminary CPI reading of 0.1% and Spain and Italy printing strong manufacturing PMI readings. Spanish and German unemployment change figures are up for release today, along with euro zone CPI flash estimates.

GBP

The pound suffered another selloff to its counterparts when the UK printed a weaker than expected manufacturing PMI reading. The index climbed from 51.8 to 52.0, short of the projected 52.7 figure for April. Today, the construction PMI is due and another improvement is eyed. However, a weaker than expected figure might spark more losses for the pound.

CHF

The franc managed to score a few gains from the stronger than expected Swiss manufacturing PMI report, as the index climbed from 47.9 to 49.4 instead of dipping to the projected 47.4 figure. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today, leaving the franc sensitive to euro price action and overall market sentiment.

JPY

The yen gave up more ground to its counterparts, as traders entertained the idea of further easing from the BOJ. Data from Japan actually came in stronger than expected, with capital spending picking up by 7.3% versus the projected 0.1% decline. Earlier today, Japan showed a higher than expected increase in average cash earnings of 0.9% instead of the projected 0.4% uptick.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were still mostly weaker for the day, as China’s reports failed to impress. The official manufacturing PMI ticked up from 50.1 to 50.2 while the non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.4 to 53.2. In Australia, building approvals showed a 4.4% slump versus the projected 1.7% decline. The RBA statement is scheduled today and no actual changes are expected for now.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

451

USD

The US dollar gave up a lot of ground in yesterday’s trading sessions when risk appetite picked up on news that the EU and IMF have come up with a debt deal for Greece. Data from the US also came in mostly weaker than expected, as factory orders and the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index fell short of forecasts. The US ADP non-farm employment change report is due today and analysts are expecting to see a 198K increase, higher compared to the previous 169K gain. Also lined up is the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI which could dip from 57.8 to 57.1 and the Fed Beige Book.

EUR

The euro advanced against its forex rivals when news reports indicated that EU and IMF leaders are ready to present a set of economic reforms that Greece can implement to secure its next set of aid. These proposals are still up for approval from the Greek government though and another standstill might force the shared currency to return its recent wins. Another factor that boosted the euro yesterday was the stronger than expected inflation report, which showed a 0.3% increase in headline CPI estimates and a 0.9% figure for the core CPI. Later today, the ECB is set to make its monetary policy statement and possibly keep rates and bond purchases unchanged.

GBP

The pound followed in the euro’s footsteps and made a quick recover in yesterday’s sessions, also thanks to the stronger than expected UK construction PMI. The reading jumped from 54.2 to 55.9, outpacing the forecast at 55.1. For today, the UK services PMI is due and this might have a stronger impact on the pound since this sector comprises a bulk of overall growth. The reading is slated to dip from 59.5 to 59.2 but a higher than expected result could allow the pound to extend its gains.

CHF

The franc was able to add to its recent wins, thanks to the improved sentiment in the euro zone. There were no reports released from Switzerland then and none are due today, which suggests that the Swiss currency could keep taking its cue from the euro.

JPY

The yen managed to recover some of its losses to the dollar but wound up lower against its higher-yielding counterparts. Data from Japan was mostly stronger than expected, as the average cash earnings report showed a 0.9% gain versus the projected 0.7% increase. There are no reports lined up from Japan today, leaving the yen sensitive to risk flows.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls shrugged off weaker than expected reports and took part in the risk rallies in recent trading. The RBA kept rates unchanged, allowing the Aussie to rally upon finding out that the outlook was not as grim as expected. The currency also got a boost from a stronger than expected Q1 GDP figure of 0.9% for Australia. In New Zealand, the dairy auction revealed another slide in prices, limiting the Kiwi’s gains. There are no other reports due from these economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

452

USD

The US dollar had a tough time holding on to its gains yesterday and even gave up ground to the euro. Data from the US economy was mixed, with the ADP non-farm employment change coming in slightly above expectations and showing a 201K gain. However, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell short of consensus and showed the lowest employment index in four months, suggesting that the NFP reading might also come up short. For today, only the initial jobless claims and revised non-farm productivity data are up for release, as dollar pairs could consolidate ahead of the NFP.

EUR

The euro surged against its forex counterparts upon hearing that the ECB has no plans of either front-loading or tapering its QE program. Governor Draghi also mentioned that they might extend their program past September 2016 if the euro zone economy fails to meet their inflation targets then. Data from the euro zone was mostly stronger than expected, with significant gains in the jobs sector, allowing the euro to advance against its rivals. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound gave up ground in recent trading after the UK printed a weaker than expected services PMI. The reading slipped from 59.5 to 56.5, lower than the projected dip to 59.2. For today, the BOE interest rate decision is lined up and no actual monetary policy changes are expected. The pound’s reaction might also be limited as traders could wait for the minutes of the meeting to be released before placing larger positions.

CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and advanced against its forex counterparts. There have been no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, indicating that the franc might keep following in the euro’s footsteps.

JPY

The yen regained a bit of ground to the dollar but was a big loser against the euro, as the Japanese currency functioned more as a counter currency in recent trading. There have been no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today, which suggests that risk flows could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls showed further weakness in recent trading sessions, as Canada printed a weaker than expected trade balance while Australia’s retail sales and trade balance also missed forecasts. Later today, Canada will print its Ivey PMI reading and possibly show a drop from 58.2 to 55.1, which might lead to more weakness for the Loonie. There are no reports due from New Zealand today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

453

USD

The US dollar managed to regain a bit of ground in recent trading, as forex traders booked profits off their short positions ahead of today’s NFP release. Most of the leading jobs indicators suggest that a better than expected reading might be seen and this could be enough to ensure that the Fed will be able to hike interest rates by September. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 222K, which could allow the jobless rate to hold steady at 5.4%. Average hourly earnings could also have an impact on dollar movement, as the reading is slated to pick up by 0.2%.

EUR

The euro gave up some of its recent wins when traders realized that Greece and its creditors aren’t about to reach a deal anytime soon. The talks broke down when Tsipras said that they will still work on a set of revisions for the proposed economic reforms, after admitting that they won’t be able to meet their debt obligations today. The Greek government said that they will pool their funds for their total debt repayments this month, which suggests that they might be waiting for the next set of bailout funds to be released. German factory orders and French trade balance are on the line today.

GBP

The pound managed to edge slightly higher in recent trading, even though the BOE didn’t announce anything new in their interest rate statement yesterday. Only the UK consumer inflation expectations report is up for release today and a drop from the previous 1.9% figure is eyed. Risk sentiment might be the main driver of price action among pound pairs though, as traders wait for the release of the US NFP report.

CHF

The franc edged lower to most of its major counterparts yesterday when risk aversion took hold of the markets. There have been no reports released from Switzerland then and only the Swiss foreign currency reserves data is up for release today. No major changes are expected, as the SNB probably didn’t intervene in the forex market then.

JPY

The yen resumed its slide against most of its major counterparts, except for the euro. There have been no major reports released from Japan but the slight pop higher in USDJPY may have carried on to other yen pairs. The leading indicators figure is due today and analysts are expecting a climb from 106.0% to 107.3% which might lend more support for the Japanese currency.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was one of the biggest losers in recent trading, as Australia released a weak retail sales report and trade balance earlier in the day. Canada saw a stronger than expected Ivey PMI, which jumped from 58.2 to 62.3 and indicated a strong expansion in the manufacturing industry. Canadian jobs data is due today and a rebound in hiring of around 10K is eyed. Also lined up today is the OPEC meeting, which might contain relevant announcements on oil production levels.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

454

USD

The US dollar surged against its forex rivals on Friday, thanks to a strong NFP report. The economy added 280K jobs in May, higher than the projected 222K increase, while the jobless rate ticked up from 5.4% to 5.5% due to an improvement in the labor force participation rate. Apart from that, average hourly earnings saw a 0.3% uptick, higher than the projected 0.2% increase and the previous 0.1% rise. Only the labor market conditions index is up for release today and another set of improvements might allow the dollar to extend its rallies.

EUR

The euro gave up its recent wins to most of its forex rivals when the Greek government confirmed that they won’t be able to meet their debt repayments for the week. Instead they opted to consolidate their loan obligations for the month in hopes of buying more time to secure more bailout funds or agree to an economic reform plan before the end of the month. Data from the euro zone beat expectations on Friday, with the German factory orders report showing a 1.4% jump and the French trade balance showing a smaller than expected deficit. German industrial production and the euro zone Sentix investor confidence index are due today.

GBP

The pound resumed its slide to the dollar, despite the increase in UK consumer inflation expectations from 1.9% to 2.2%. Traders probably brushed this data point aside, knowing that the economy showed a negative headline inflation reading recently. There are no reports lined up from the UK today, which suggests the possibility of consolidation for pound pairs or a continuation of their ongoing trends.

CHF

Franc pairs popped slightly higher on Friday after the release of Switzerland’s foreign currency reserves report, which indicated a drop from 522.2 billion CHF to 517.5 billion CHF. The Swiss unemployment rate is up for release today and no change from the previous 3.3% reading is eyed.

JPY

The yen lost a lot of ground to the US dollar and Canadian dollar on Friday but managed to hold on to some of its recent wins against the other currencies. Japan’s leading indicators reading showed a climb from 106.3% to 107.2%, reflecting brighter economic prospects ahead. Earlier today, Japan reported an upward revision in its final Q1 GDP reading from 0.6% to 1.0% but printed a weaker current account balance.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi resumed their slide in recent trading, as there were no reports to keep these currencies supported last Friday. The Loonie managed to put up a fight against the strengthening dollar, thanks to Canada’s better than expected jobs report. The economy added 58.9K jobs in May, higher than the projected 10.2K increase. Earlier today, China reported a higher than expected trade surplus but components of the figure still showed a decline in exports. Canadian building permits data is up for release later on.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

455

USD

The US dollar returned some of its recent wins at the start of the week since there were no reports from the US economy to keep the momentum sustained. Traders are also booking profits ahead of the US retail sales release tomorrow. For today, only the JOLTS job openings report and wholesale inventories data are up for release and these might not have such a huge impact on dollar movement.

EUR

The euro managed to recover some of its previous losses, as traders booked profits off their short positions when data from Germany n came in better than expected. German industrial production picked up by 0.9% versus the projected 0.6% uptick while the trade surplus widened to 22.3 billion EUR. On the other hand, sentiment in the region dipped, as the Sentix investor confidence index fell from 19.6 to 17.1. Only the revised GDP reading is due from the region today and no changes are expected from the initially reported 0.4% estimate.

GBP

The pound made a strong comeback in Monday’s trading even though there were no major reports to give it a boost. For today, the UK trade balance is due and a smaller deficit of 10 billion GBP compared to the previous 10.1 billion GBP is eyed.

CHF

The franc was also able to recover against most of its counterparts, thanks to broad-based profit-taking. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday but it appears the franc took its cue from the euro. Today the unemployment rate is due and no changes are expected from the previous 3.3% reading. Swiss CPI is also up for release and a 0.1% uptick is projected.

JPY

The yen was able to recover against the dollar but was still in a weak spot against some of its other forex counterparts. There have been no major reports out of Japan yesterday, but it looks like the GDP revision from 0.6% to 1.0% did give the currency a boost. Only the consumer confidence index is due today and a climb from 41.5 to 41.9 is expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to recover against most of their counterparts, as the dollar pairs tested key levels. Earlier today, Australia released relatively upbeat data, with an improvement in NAB business confidence from 3 to 7 and a stronger than expected 1.0% increase in home loans. China printed a weaker than expected CPI reading of 1.2% versus the projected 1.3% increase and the previous 1.5% gain.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

456

USD

The US dollar marked its second day of losses against most of its forex rivals, despite better than expected data from the US economy. JOLTS job openings showed a gain from an upgraded 5.11M to 5.38M, outpacing the consensus at 5.03M, while the NFIB small business index improved from 96.9 to 98.3. There are no major reports lined up from the US economy today, leaving traders to position ahead of Thursday’s retail sales release.

EUR

The euro initially sold off but was able to recover quickly, even though there were no major reports out of the region. As it turns out, the Greek government submitted a new reform plan but this was dismissed as unfeasible and not credible by its creditors. French and Italian industrial production numbers are up for release today and these might give the shared currency a boost if the actual readings come in strong.

GBP

The pound managed to recover against most of its counterparts, thanks to a strong trade balance report from the UK. The deficit narrowed to 8.6 billion GBP from the previous 10.7 billion GBP shortfall, reflecting a pickup in exports. UK manufacturing and industrial production figures are lined up for today, along with a speech from BOE Governor Carney.

CHF

The franc was mostly stronger in recent trading after Switzerland reported better than expected CPI data. The reading showed a 0.2% gain, higher than the projected 0.1% uptick and enough to make up for the previous month’s 0.2% decline. The Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3%. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen struggled to hold on to its recent gains after Japan reported a dip in its consumer confidence index from 41.5 to 41.4 instead of the projected improvement to 41.9. Earlier today, the core machinery orders report showed a stronger than expected 3.8% increase versus the projected 2.0% drop and the previous 2.9% increase. Meanwhile, producer prices recorded another 2.1% slide as expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to hold on to their current levels, even though Australia printed a couple of stronger than expected reports. The NAB business confidence index improved from 3 to 7 while home loans picked up by 1.0% instead of falling by an estimated 1.8%. However, China released weaker than expected CPI and PPI readings, spurring talks of another round of easing from the PBOC. Earlier today, Australia showed a 6.9% slump in its Westpac consumer confidence index. Later on, the RBNZ is set to make its interest rate decision and a potential rate cut could keep the Kiwi weak.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

457

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance, as the currency reacted mostly to risk sentiment. There have been no major reports out of the US economy yesterday, leaving traders to position themselves ahead of today’s US retail sales release. The headline figure is expected to show a 1.1% gain while the core version of the report could print a 0.7% uptick, which would reflect stronger increases compared to the previous month. Upside surprises could renew calls for a Fed rate hike in September, which might allow the dollar to regain ground.

EUR

The euro pared its recent gains to the dollar and most of its forex rivals due to the lack of positive developments in Greece. Data from the euro zone was also mostly weaker than expected, with both France and Italy reporting weaker than expected industrial production data. French employment data and CPI are up for release today and another round of strong figures could allow the shared currency to regain ground.

GBP

The pound carried on with its climb yesterday, despite weaker than expected manufacturing production data from the UK. The report showed a 0.4% drop versus the projected 0.1% uptick while industrial production showed a stronger than expected 0.4% gain. There are no major reports due from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc gave up most of its recent wins, as there were no reports from Switzerland to keep the currency supported. There are still no reports lined up from the country today, leaving the franc to take its cue from the euro or from overall risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen enjoyed a strong rally on the heels of Kuroda’s remarks in yesterday’s Asian trading session. The BOJ head said that the excessive gains of the currency have been corrected and that the real effective exchange rate still reflects yen weakness. Market watchers took this as a sign that the BOJ won’t take any additional measures to spur currency depreciation. Earlier today, Japan’s BSI manufacturing index showed a fall from 2.4 to -6.0 instead of improving to the estimated 3.2 reading.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The RBNZ decided to cut interest rates by 0.25% in their latest policy statement, triggering a sharp selloff for the Kiwi. Governor Wheeler indicated that further easing moves are likely since the dairy sector hasn’t recovered and that commodity prices could keep dropping. Meanwhile, Australia printed stronger than expected jobs data, as the economy reportedly added 42K jobs in May and brought the jobless rate down to its yearly low of 6.0%. Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures are up for release later today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

458

USD

The US dollar ended the previous week on a strong note, as it regained ground against its forex counterparts. Data from the US came in stronger than expected on Friday, with the UoM preliminary consumer sentiment index climbing from 90.7 to 94.6, reflecting a pickup in optimism and a potential acceleration in consumer spending. Industrial production and capacity utilization reports are up for release today and another set of strong data could spur demand for the dollar.

EUR

The euro had trouble sustaining its climb last week, following reports that the IMF team pulled out of debt talks and refused to pursue further negotiations from the Greek government. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as Germany printed a stronger than expected wholesale price index while the euro zone’s industrial production reading of 0.1% fell short of consensus. Today ECB Governor Draghi is set to give a testimony and his remarks might push euro pairs around.

GBP

Data from the UK was weaker than expected at the end of the week, as construction output reportedly slipped 0.8% instead of showing the projected 0.1% uptick. However, the pound was still able to retain its gains thanks to upbeat remarks from BOE MPC member McCafferty in his testimony that day. For today, only the Rightmove HPI is up for release today and the report printed a 3.0% gain, better than the previous 0.1% decline.

CHF

The franc was able to hold on to its recent gains, as there were no reports lined up from Switzerland then. Today the Swiss PPI and retail sales reports are up for release, with a 0.1% uptick in producer prices expected and a 2.8% annualized decline in retail sales likely. Stronger than expected data could allow the franc to keep advancing, as this seems to be the better safe-haven alternative among European currencies.

JPY

The yen gave up its recent wins since data from Japan came mixed on Friday. The industrial production report was revised up from 1.0% to 1.2% while the tertiary industry activity index marked a 0.2% decline instead of the projected 0.4% uptick. There are no reports lined up from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were mostly in a weak spot on Friday, with the Kiwi still being weighed down by the RBNZ rate cut earlier on in the week. There have been no reports released from the comdoll economies then while today has the Canadian manufacturing sales report on tap.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

459

USD

The US dollar gave up some of its recent gains, most notably against the pound, but was able to hold its ground against the yen. Data from the US economy came in weaker than expected, with the Empire State manufacturing index falling to negative territory and the capacity utilization and industrial production figures coming in below consensus. Only the building permits and housing starts readings are due from the US today, as markets gear up for the FOMC statement tomorrow.

EUR

The euro gave up a few more gains against some of its forex rivals, as traders started to accept that the Greek debt talks might not have a positive outcome. For today, economic data could still pushed the shared currency around, with Germany set to release its latest ZEW economic sentiment index. Economists are expecting to see a dip from 41.9 to 37.5, which would reflect a drop in optimism. Meanwhile, the region’s ZEW index is slated to fall from 61.2 to 60.3.

GBP

The pound was able to advance against most of its forex counterparts, with traders pricing in positive data from the UK this week. Yesterday, the UK Rightmove HPI indicated a 3.0% increase in house prices. For today, the CPI readings are due and the headline figure is expected to show a 0.1% rebound while the core figure could climb back to 1.0%. Stronger than expected data could allow the pound to extend its gains.

CHF

The franc was able to rally in recent trading, despite mixed data from Switzerland. The CPI showed a 0.8% decline instead of the projected 0.1% uptick but still marked an improvement from the previous 2.1% slide. Annual retail sales improved to 1.8% from the previous -2.8% figure and the projected -2.2% slump. Swiss SECO economic projections are up for release today and upgrades could mean more gains for the franc.

JPY

The yen returned some of its recent wins when BOJ Governor Kuroda said that he didn’t mean to cause a rally with his comments last week. Recall that the central bank head said that real effective exchange rates are already indicating appropriate yen weakness, which then sparked a huge selloff for yen pairs. There have been no reports out of Japan recently, which suggests that the currency could be more sensitive to risk flows.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to hold their ground in recent trading sessions, as commodity prices continued to tumble. In Canada, the manufacturing sales report showed a 2.1% decline instead of the projected 1.3% dip, keeping the Loonie weak. The RBA released the minutes of their latest policy meeting today and emphasized that policy needs to remain accommodative and that the Aussie needs to weaken. Later today, the New Zealand dairy auction is set to take place and another fall in prices could mean more Kiwi declines.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

460

USD

The US dollar was mostly in consolidation against its forex rivals, as traders are reducing their positions ahead of the FOMC statement. Data from the US was mixed, with building permits beating expectations and housing starts falling short. With today’s FOMC statement, traders are waiting to see if there will be any changes in the economic projections and are hoping to hear confirmation that the Fed can be able to hike interest rates sometime this year. However, cautious remarks and jawboning might keep the dollar’s gains in check.

EUR

The euro edged slightly lower against its rivals due to the lack of progress in the Greek debt talks. Traders are slowly starting to price in the possibility of seeing a debt default and a Grexit, which might still be damaging for the euro. The German ZEW economic sentiment index came in weaker than expected, as the reading fell from 41.9 to 31.5, worse than the expected drop to 37.5. The euro zone ZEW reading slipped from 61.2 to 53.7, reflecting a downturn in confidence. Today euro zone final CPI readings are due.

GBP

The pound was able to extend its rallies, despite slightly weaker than expected inflation readings from the UK. Headline CPI showed a 0.1% rebound as expected while the core CPI improved from 0.8% to 0.9%, short of the projected 1.0% figure. PPI slipped 0.9% instead of showing the estimated 0.7% increase, hinting of weaker price pressures down the line. For today, the UK jobs report is due and it might show a 12.5K increase in hiring. Also lined up is the release of the BOE minutes and any changes in rhetoric could also push pound pairs around.

CHF

The franc was stuck in consolidation against most of its forex counterparts, as the release of the Swiss SECO economic forecasts did very little to give the currency any direction. There are no major reports lined up from Switzerland today, except for the ZEW economic expectations index which showed a -0.1 reading in the previous release.

JPY

The yen gave back some of its recent wins when BOJ Governor Kuroda mentioned that he didn’t mean to spark any huge moves with his comments last week. Recall that he said the yen was able to correct its excessive gains in the past and that the real effective exchange rate shows sufficient weakness. There have been no reports released from Japan then and none are due today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls struggled to hold on to their current levels due to the lack of top-tier data from the economies. The RBA minutes didn’t contain any surprises, as it simply showed that policymakers want to keep monetary policy accommodative and that they’d like to see more Aussie weakness. In New Zealand, the dairy auction showed another decline in price levels. The country’s GDP is up for release in the latter part of the US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

461

USD

The US dollar suffered a sharp selloff after the FOMC statement, when Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen refrained from confirming that a rate hike in September was in order. The Fed actually downgraded their forecasts for growth and employment this year while upgrading their estimates for the next two years. The statement didn’t focus on weak inflationary prospects and the dollar’s negative impact on price levels, indicating that policymakers are no longer too concerned about these issues. Inflation readings are up for release today and the US could show a 0.5% increase in the headline CPI and a 0.2% uptick for the core CPI. The initial jobless claims figure and the Philly Fed manufacturing index are also due today.

EUR

The euro managed to take advantage of dollar weakness but still kept its gains limited against its other forex rivals, as traders are waiting to see how today’s set of Greek debt talks turn out. Euro zone final CPI readings have been unchanged from the initially reported 0.3% headline figure and 0.9% core figure. There are no other major reports on tap from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound was able to extend its rallies in recent trading, despite weaker than expected headline jobs data. The economy added only 6.5K jobs in May, lower than the projected 12.1K increase, although the previous reading enjoyed a small upgrade. What drove the pound higher was the strong jump in average hourly earnings of 2.9% versus the projected 2.5% gain. Apart from that, the BOE minutes also emphasized that the economy could draw more support from this increase in wage inflation.

CHF

The franc was able to take advantage of dollar weakness in recent trading but is consolidating prior to the SNB rate statement. The central bank isn’t expected to announce any surprises which might lead to sharp moves for franc pairs, but it wouldn’t hurt to play it safe. Market watchers could also be on the lookout for any comments regarding franc strength or the impact of the Greek debt troubles on Switzerland.

JPY

The yen advanced to the dollar and most of its major counterparts, as traders transferred their safe-haven holdings from the dollar to the yen. Japan reported a smaller trade balance, which reflected another pickup in exports, something that the BOJ has already been highlighting in their recent statements. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were still in a weak spot compared to most of their counterparts, with the Kiwi leading the declines. New Zealand printed a weaker than expected 0.2% growth figure for the first quarter, hinting that another RBNZ cut might be needed. There are no major reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way