Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Commercial Content Analysts
462

USD

The US dollar regained ground against most of its forex rivals, except for the British pound, yesterday when data came in mostly stronger than expected. The headline and core CPI readings missed expectations, but the initial jobless claims, current account balance, Philly Fed index, and CB leading index came in strong. There are no major reports due from the US economy today, leaving the dollar sensitive to risk flows. Keep in mind though that FOMC member Williams has a testimony lined up.

EUR

The euro kept its gains limited in recent trading as the Eurogroup meetings still failed to come up with an action plan for Greece. The leaders set an emergency meeting for Monday in hopes of ironing out the technical details need to reform the country’s pension system, which might be key to unlocking the next set of bailout funds and allowing the country to avoid defaulting this month. There have been no reports released from the euro zone then and only the German PPI and euro zone current account balance are due today.

GBP

The pound extended its gains yesterday, thanks to stronger than expected UK retail sales data. The report showed a 0.2% uptick in May instead of staying flat, but the previous month’s reading was downgraded to show just a 0.7% uptick. The UK public sector net borrowing report is lined up for today and another good reading might lead to more gains for the pound.

CHF

The franc had a bit of a volatile day since SNB officials made some remarks regarding franc strength during their policy statement. At the end of the day, no actual policy measures were announced, allowing the currency to breathe a sigh of relief. For today, the Swiss calendar is empty, which means that the franc might just follow in the euro’s footsteps.

JPY

The yen was stuck in consolidation mode ahead of today’s BOJ interest rate decision. No actual policy changes are expected but the central bank might take this opportunity to highlight the strength in the economy and emphasize that no further easing is needed, which might then keep the yen supported.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi was still reeling from the weak New Zealand GDP release throughout the day, but the Canadian dollar managed to advance against its counterparts. For today, Canada is set to print its CPI and retail sales reports, with strong readings likely to give the Loonie another boost. Core CPI is expected to pick up by 0.3% while headline CPI might show a 0.4% increase. Core retail sales could increase by 0.3% while headline retail sales could rise by 0.7%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

463

USD

The US dollar regained a bit of ground against its rivals on Friday, as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. There have been no economic reports released from the US economy then while today has the existing home sales data on tap. The report could show a pickup from 5.04M to 5.27M, which would reflect stronger housing demand and possibly keep the dollar strong.

EUR

The euro faces event risks in the form of the European leaders’ emergency meeting today. Any signs that a deal will be reached, whether it involves Greece accepting a list of economic reforms or the creditors relaxing their conditions, could be bullish for the euro. The lack of agreement could keep gains in check, as traders come to terms with the idea of a default or Grexit. There are no economic reports lined up from the region today.

GBP

The pound carried on with its ascent last week, thanks to positive government budget data. The public sector net borrowing report showed a 9.4 billion GBP deficit, lower than the projected 10.1 billion GBP borrowing figure. Meanwhile, the previous reading was revised to show a smaller deficit of 5.5 billion GBP. No reports are lined up today but MPC member Cunliffe is set to testify.

CHF

The franc advanced against the euro and some of its forex rivals last week, despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today, leaving the franc following in the euro’s footsteps.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to risk sentiment last Friday. There have been no reports released from Japan then and none are due today, allowing traders to position themselves ahead of the spending and inflation reports due later on this week.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to sell off against the safe-havens, with the Loonie’s tumble worsened after the release of Canada’s CPI and retail sales figures. CPI data actually came in stronger than expected, but headline and core consumer spending fell short. Earlier today, New Zealand reported a 0.1% uptick in visitor arrivals and a 7.1% gain in consumer spending, which might contribute positively to overall growth. No other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

464

[B]USD[/B]

The US dollar was able to recover in recent trading, as risk aversion seemed to be present in the markets. There have been no signs of a deal in the EU emergency meeting, which led traders to start accepting that a default might take place. Data from the US came in stronger than expected, with existing home sales climbing from an upgraded 5.09M to 5.35M versus the consensus at 5.27M. Durable goods orders data are up for release today and traders are expecting to see a 0.6% increase in the core figure and a 0.6% decline in the headline figure. A testimony by FOMC member Powell is also scheduled today.

[B]EUR[/B]

The euro suffered a sharp selloff in the early Asian trading session as the prospect of a Greek debt default weighed on the markets. There has been no agreement made in the latest emergency meeting and all eyes and ears now turn to the EU Summit later on this week. For today, German and French PMIs are due, with improvements expected for the manufacturing sector.

[B]GBP[/B]

The pound was also sold off at the start of the day, as traders liquidated their long positions in anticipation of more uncertainty from Greece. There have been no major reports released from the UK on Monday and MPC member Cunliffe’s speech didn’t contain any surprises. Today, the CBI industrial orders expectations index is due and an improvement from -5 to 1 might be recorded.

[B]CHF[/B]

The franc followed in the euro’s footsteps and sold off against most of its rivals, as sentiment towards the European markets turned sour. There have been no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, indicating that the franc might keep taking its cue from the euro.

[B]JPY[/B]

The yen advanced against most of its rivals except for the US dollar, as risk aversion returned to the markets. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI for June was weaker than expected since the reading fell from 50.9 to 49.9, reflecting a return to industry contraction. No other reports are due from Japan today.

[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]

The comdolls were also hurt by risk aversion in today’s trading sessions, as China showed a contraction in its HSBC flash manufacturing PMI. The reading climbed from 49.2 to 49.6 in June, still below the 50.0 mark indicating industry expansion. Australia’s CB leading index showed a 0.3% decline while the HPI printed a 1.6% gain, weaker than the estimated 2.2% increase.

[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]

465

USD

The US dollar took advantage of the run in risk aversion earlier on in the day, as traders started to accept the idea that Greece might default on its loans. However, weaker than expected data from the US prevented the dollar from extending its rallies throughout the US session. Core durable goods orders came in slightly weaker than expected with a 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.6% increase while the headline figure missed expectations of a 0.6% decline and posted a larger 1.8% drop. The house price index and the flash manufacturing PMI were also weaker than expected while new home sales and the Richmond manufacturing index showed better than expected results. For today, the final GDP reading for Q1 is due and a small upward revision from the 0.7% contraction is eyed.

EUR

The euro suffered a sharp selloff against its forex rivals at the start of the trading day when the emergency meeting in the EU failed to draw up an agreed upon reform plan for Greece. Euro zone PMI readings came in stronger than expected, with Germany and France reporting improvements in both manufacturing and services sectors. The German Ifo business climate reading is up for release today and a dip from 108.5 to 108.2 is expected, owing mostly to the downbeat sentiment surrounding the Greek debt issue.

GBP

The pound also suffered a selloff against its forex counterparts, as the CB industrial orders expectations reading dipped from -5 to -7 instead of improving to 1. BBA mortgage approvals data is up for release today and traders are expecting to see a climb from 42.1K to 43.1K, which might allow the pound to recover.

CHF

The franc gave up a lot of ground to the dollar, just like its European peers. There have been no reports released from Switzerland then, forcing the currency to take its cue from the euro and overall sentiment. Today, the UBS consumption indicator is up for release and it might show an improvement from the previous 1.25 figure. Later on, the SNB will release its quarterly bulletin.

JPY

The yen retreated to the dollar but advanced to its higher-yielding rivals as risk aversion set in the financial markets. Data from Japan was weaker than expected, as the flash manufacturing PMI indicated industry contraction when it fell from 50.9 to 49.9. Earlier today, the BOJ released their monetary policy meeting minutes which barely contained any changes from their previous ones.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as these were mostly tossed around by changing risk sentiment. Australia printed a couple of weak figures in the Asian session while China showed a small climb in its HSBC flash manufacturing PMI. There are no major reports lined up from the comdolls today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

466

USD

The US dollar was able to advance against some of its counterparts yesterday but gave up most of its recent gains in today’s Asian trading session. As expected, the US Q1 GDP was upgraded from -0.7% to -0.2%, reflecting a smaller contraction than initially reported. For today, initial jobless claims and the core PCE price index is up for release. Personal income and spending reports are also due, and stronger than expected figures on all fronts might be enough to allow the dollar to regain ground.

EUR

The euro bounced back from its recent slide to the safe-havens but continued to chalk up losses to the commodity currencies. There still hasn’t been a deal struck between Greece and its creditors, increasing the odds of seeing a default and a Grexit. Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected, as the German Ifo business climate index fell from 108.5 to 107.4. For today, the German GfK consumer climate report is up for release and a decline is expected as well.

GBP

The pound was unable to sustain its previous rallies when the BBA mortgage approvals report fell short of expectations. The figure climbed from 42.0K to 42.5K, lower than the projected gain to 43.0K. The CBI realized sales index is due today and a sharp drop from 51 to 32 is projected, which might be indicative of weaker consumer spending figures down the line.

CHF

The franc was able to advance against some of its rivals, thanks to an improvement in the Swiss UBS consumption indicator from 1.67 to 1.73. SNB head Thomas Jordan is set to give a testimony today and might repeat his comments on the franc’s strength and how they’d like to see lower exchange rate levels.

JPY

The yen had a mixed trading performance as it mostly acted as a counter currency against its rivals. The BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes contained no surprises, as it simply indicated that policymakers believed that their easing efforts are working. There are no reports lined up from Japan today so risk sentiment might continue pushing yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls got a strong boost in today’s Asian trading session from the Chinese central bank’s decision to increase liquidity by 35 billion yuan this week. This could lend support to businesses and spur demand for raw material products from Australia. No reports are lined up from the comdoll economies today, which suggests that the recent PBOC decision might continue to affect price action for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

467

USD

The US dollar consolidated against most of its FX trading rivals in recent sessions, as data from the economy came in mixed. Personal spending came in better than expected with a 0.9% gain while the personal income figure fell short of expectations at a mere 0.5% uptick. The flash services PMI was also weaker than expected, as the reading fell from 56.2 to 54.8, reflecting slower industry expansion. For today, only the revised UoM consumer sentiment figure is due and no revisions are expected for the initially reported 94.6 figure.

EUR

The euro managed to hold steady against the dollar but was still under heavy selling pressure against some of its FX trading counterparts. There have been no signs of a deal between Greek government officials and its creditors, increasing the odds of the debt-ridden nation defaulting on its loans and exiting the euro zone by next week. Germany’s GfK consumer climate index dipped from 10.2 to 10.1 as expected, but it appears that euro traders are more interested in Greek debt developments.

GBP

The pound managed to regain a bit of ground in recent FX trading sessions despite weaker than expected CBI realized sales data. The index fell from 51 to 29 versus the projected 32 reading. There are no economic reports lined up from the UK today but BOE Governor Carney has a testimony lined up later on.

CHF

The franc was also stuck in consolidation, as there were no reports to push the Swissy around in recent FX trading sessions. Traders are still waiting for updates on the EU meetings between Greece and its creditors before deciding how to play the franc. There are still no reports lined up from Switzerland today.

JPY

Japan released a bunch of economic reports in today’s Asian trading session, reflecting small improvements in the economy. The national core CPI came in better than expected with a 0.1% gain versus the projected flat reading while household spending showed a 4.8% jump instead of the estimated 3.5% increase. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.3% as expected while the Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.1% uptick as expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls got a good boost in yesterday’s sessions after the PBOC ramped up liquidity in their system. However, New Zealand’s trade balance released earlier today erased some of those wins, as the underlying data reflected another downturn in both imports and exports. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

468

USD

The US dollar was off to a strong start this week, thanks to risk aversion stemming from the weekend events. Greece was unable to come up with an agreement with its creditors during their weekend meetings while China announced another round of stimulus efforts. US pending home sales are up for release today but it looks like risk sentiment might continue to push dollar pairs around.

EUR

The euro gapped lower against all its forex counterparts when the ECB refrained from increasing its emergency fund to Greece and allowed capital controls to be put in place. The IMF deadline is still set for tomorrow and the inability of Greece to make this payment might lead to more weakness for the shared currency and talks of a Grexit. As for economic data, German and Spanish preliminary CPI readings are due today.

GBP

The pound was weighed down by the pessimistic sentiment in the European markets, also leading to gaps across the charts. Data from the UK includes the net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals figures, with strong improvements possibly giving the pound a boost.

CHF

The franc was also on weak footing following the weekend events in the EU, although traders seem careful to buy up the currency due to the SNB’s rhetoric. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today, which means that franc traders could pay close attention to developments in the Greek debt talks.

JPY

The yen encountered a round of volatility at the start of this trading week when sources from the BOJ claimed that the central bank might also push up short-term liquidity in the event of a market crash from the Greek debt crisis. This lead to a quick selloff for the yen, which happened to gap up against its forex counterparts over the weekend as well.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls reacted to the Chinese central bank’s interest rate cut, leading to a bit of gains for the Aussie and Kiwi. The PBOC decided to lower benchmark and deposit rates, as well as their RRR, in order to limit the losses on the Chinese stock market. The increase in liquidity could mean higher business activity, which might wind up supporting trade activity in Australia and New Zealand.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

469

USD

The US dollar had a mixed performance, although it was generally weaker against most currencies at the end of the day. The weekend gaps were mostly filled, as traders started to book profits ahead of event risks and a shortened trading week. Data from the US came in weaker than expected, as the pending home sales report printed a mere 0.9% gain instead of the projected 1.3% increase while the previous reading suffered a downgrade. Chicago PMI and US CB consumer confidence numbers are up for release today and strong data, combined with risk aversion, could pave the way for dollar rallies.

EUR

The euro staged a strong recovery against its forex counterparts after gapping down over the weekend. Investors are still hopeful that Greece can strike a deal with its creditors before the IMF deadline is up today. If the country fails to meet its 1.6 billion EUR in debt repayments, it could be forced to pay in arrears or possibly default on its debt. This could prompt talks of a Grexit and threaten the stability of the euro as a shared currency. Meanwhile, traders could also take a look at Germany’s retail sales and unemployment change figures, along with the euro zone CPI flash estimates, before the IMF deadline kicks in.

GBP

The pound was unable to recover against the safe-haven currencies in recent trading sessions, as data from the UK came in weak. Public lending to individuals was worse than expected at 3.1 billion GBP versus the projected 3.3 billion GBP figure while mortgage approvals came in at 64K, lower than the estimated 69K reading. The UK current account balance and final GDP reading for Q1 is up for release today and strong figures could allow the pound to regain ground.

CHF

The franc rallied against most of its forex counterparts towards the end of the US trading session, despite concerns that the SNB could intervene in the market to keep the currency weak. There have been no reports released from Switzerland then, with the franc taking its cue from the euro. For today, the KOF economic barometer is up for release and a climb from 93.1 to 93.7 is expected.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion to rally against its forex rivals. Japanese retail sales came in stronger than expected with a 3.0% gain versus the projected 2.1% increase while the industrial production figure was downgraded to show a 2.2% decline. For today, the average cash earnings report turned out to be a disappointment with only a 0.6% gain instead of the projected 0.7% increase while the previous reading was downgraded.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were off to a weak start today, as data from Australia and New Zealand turned out weaker than expected. HIA new home sales slumped by 2.3% in Australia while the ANZ business confidence index in New Zealand fell from 15.7 to -2.3, reflecting pessimism. Weaker oil prices are currently weighing on the Loonie but the upcoming Canadian GDP release could provide fresh volatility in the US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

470

USD

The US dollar regained a bit of ground on risk aversion after Greece defaulted on its loan to the IMF. Data from the US came in mixed, with the Chicago PMI missing expectations and the CB consumer confidence index printing stronger than expected results. For today, the ADP non-farm employment change report could pose an event risk for dollar trades, with analysts expecting to see stronger hiring gains of 219K compared to the previous 201K.

EUR

The euro didn’t sell off as much when Greece officially entered default with the IMF, as traders already priced in this possibility a long while back. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as Germany reported weaker than expected hiring gains of 1K while the region’s flash CPI estimates came in line with expectations. Manufacturing PMIs from the region’s largest economies are lined up today, although updates on the Greek debt crisis could continue to push pairs around.

GBP

The pound also suffered a selloff in recent trading, even though there were no major catalysts lined up. Traders are worried that debt contagion could spill over to the UK from Greece, which could be a burden to the country’s finances. The UK manufacturing PMI is up for release today and a climb from 52.0 to 52.6 is expected. BOE Governor Carney is also set to give a testimony and reassuring remarks could help boost the pound.

CHF

The franc was mostly flat in recent trading, although it did chalk up some losses after Greece defaulted. The KOF economic barometer was weaker than expected as it fell to 89.7 while the previous reading suffered a downgrade. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due today and a climb from 49.4 to 50.0 is eyed.

JPY

Japan printed improvements in its latest Tankan survey, with the manufacturing component climbing from 12 to 15 and the non-manufacturing index improving from 19 to 23. The final manufacturing PMI for June was also upgraded from 49.9 to 50.1, reflecting industry expansion. No other reports are lined up from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to score gains after China reported improvements in its official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings. In addition, Australia posted a 2.3% rebound in building approvals. Later on, New Zealand is set to have another dairy auction and a decline in prices might drive the Kiwi lower again.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

471

USD

The US dollar managed to advance against most of its major counterparts, as risk aversion stayed in the financial markets. Data from the US also came in better than expected, setting the stage for an upside surprise in the NFP. The ADP non-farm employment change figure showed a 237K gain in hiring, higher than the projected 219K figure and the previous 203K increase. However, Challenger job cuts showed a 42.7% rise, reflecting an increase in layoffs. Meanwhile the ISM manufacturing PMI came in slightly better than expected at 53.5 versus the projected 53.2 reading, up from the previous 53.4 figure. The NFP could show a 230K increase in hiring, slower than the previous 280K gain, but probably enough to bring the jobless rate down from 5.5% to 5.4%.

EUR

The euro resumed its selloff to some of its major counterparts, as EU officials confirmed that Greece is in arrears with the IMF and that it risks getting thrown out of the euro zone if another set of bailout funds isn’t unlocked. Data from the euro zone came in mostly in line with expectations but traders declined to buy up the shared currency ahead of the Greek referendum this weekend. Spanish unemployment change data is due today and a larger decline in joblessness is eyed, along with the release of the ECB meeting minutes.

GBP

The pound continued to sell off against some of its rivals after the UK printed a disappointing manufacturing PMI reading. The figure fell from 51.9 to 51.4 in June instead of improving to the projected 52.6 reading. The construction PMI is up for release today but it might not have such a strong impact on pound price action.

CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and sold off against most of its counterparts, with traders worrying about debt contagion in Europe. Swiss manufacturing PMI came in line with expectations of a climb from 49.4 to 50.0, which reflects industry expansion. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen advanced to most of its rivals, except for the US dollar, when risk aversion extended its stay in the markets. Japan’s Tankan survey printed improvements for the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, confirming that the BOJ isn’t likely to increase its stimulus anytime soon. No reports are due from Japan today, leaving risk sentiment at the driver’s seat of price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi suffered another sharp selloff when the dairy trade auction showed a decline in prices. This was followed by the ANZ report indicating a 3.1% decline in commodity prices for New Zealand and a downward revision in the previous month’s data. Australia printed a larger than expected trade deficit of 2.75 billion AUD and reported a downgrade in the previous month’s trade balance. There are no other reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

472

USD

The US dollar suffered a sharp selloff against its forex rivals in recent trading, thanks to weaker than expected NFP data. The report showed a 223K increase in hiring versus the projected 231K figure while average hourly earnings showed a flat reading. The jobless rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3% but this was just a result of a sharp drop in the participation rate and a reduction in the labor force. Underlying data such as the U6 and long-term unemployment showed gradual improvements, but the weak headline figures still convinced most traders to delay rate hike projections for December. US banks are closed for the Fourth of July long weekend holiday today.

EUR

The euro managed to regain a bit of ground to the US dollar and the commodity currencies, thanks to bleak economic data from those economies. Opinion polls ahead of the Greek referendum this weekend show mixed results but most are indicating that the actual vote could come down to the wire. Spanish unemployment change data was weaker than expected yesterday while today has the euro zone retail sales on tap.

GBP

The pound managed to draw some support from stronger than expected construction PMI, as the reading jumped from 55.9 to 58.1 in June. Today, the services PMI is up for release and it might have a stronger impact on pound action since the sector contributes a larger share to overall economic growth. The reading is expected to climb from 56.5 to 57.4 in June.

CHF

The franc continued to advance in recent trading, despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. Traders might take their cues from the results of the Greek referendum over the weekend, although franc-buying might be limited due to the SNB’s pledge to keep the currency weak.

JPY

The yen gave up a bit of ground in recent trading as risk appetite managed to return to the markets and traders booked profits ahead of the weekend event risk. There have been no economic reports released from Japan yesterday and none are due today, leaving market sentiment in the driver’s seat.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar was weighed down by weaker than expected retail sales data from Australia, as the country reported a 0.3% uptick in consumer spending versus the projected 0.5% gain. To top it off, the previous report was downgraded to show a 0.1% decline in consumer spending. Chinese equities are on the decline today, prompting calls for further PBOC easing. No other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

473

USD

The US dollar was off to a running start this week as risk aversion settled in the markets. Greeks voted against the current bailout proposal, which involves further austerity measures. There were no reports released from the US on Friday since markets were closed ahead of the Fourth of July weekend. Today, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI is up for release and a climb from 55.7 to 56.2 is expected.

EUR

Euro pairs gapped lower against their forex counterparts in today’s trading after the Greek referendum resulted in a “No” vote for austerity and the current bailout proposal. German factory orders and euro zone Sentix investor confidence data are up for release today and weak readings could lead to sharper euro declines.

GBP

The pound was also on weak footing last week and at the start of this week, despite stronger than expected services PMI from the UK. Today, there are no major reports lined up from the UK, which suggests that the pound could take its cue from overall market sentiment.

CHF

The franc followed in the euro’s footsteps and sold off against its forex counterparts ahead of more uncertainty in Greece. Swiss CPI is up for release today and a mere 0.1% uptick in price levels might be seen. Apart from that, updates on the Greek debt talks could continue to push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion as it advanced against its currency rivals. There have been no reports released from Japan recently, but the selloff in the Chinese equity market has led investors to move their funds to the safe-haven yen.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls sold off at the start of the week, following the sharp decline in oil prices last week. Iran pledged to double its oil production once the EU sanctions are lifted, putting additional pressure on crude oil and other commodities. Aside from that, the selloff in the Chinese stock market has been weighing on the Aussie and Kiwi.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

474

USD

The US dollar stayed supported at the start of the week after most of its currency counterparts were able to fill the gap from the weekend. Data from the US came in weaker than expected, as the ISM non-manufacturing PMI climbed from 55.7 to 56.0, short of the projected 56.5 figure. For today, the trade balance and JOLTS job openings data is due and a wider deficit and lower job opportunities figures are eyed, which might lead the dollar to give back its recent gains.

EUR

The euro was still in weak footing early on, as Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis announced his resignation and the referendum was confirmed to have ended in a “No” vote to austerity and the bailout. EU officials will have another summit today to discuss Plan B for Greece, but the lack of a resolution could keep weighing on the euro. Data from the euro zone was mixed, as German factory orders showed a 0.2% decline instead of staying flat while the Sentix investor confidence reading improved from 17.1 to 18.5.

GBP

The pound was also in a weak spot, despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. For today, the UK manufacturing production figure is up for release and a 0.1% rebound from the previous 0.4% decline is expected. Industrial production data is also due and a 0.2% dip is eyed.

CHF

The franc took its cue from the euro and showed losses to most of its currency counterparts. Swiss CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% gain while the unemployment rate and foreign currency reserves data are up for release today. No changes in the 3.3% jobless rate is expected while the foreign currency reserves figure could indicate if the SNB is actively intervening in the market to keep the franc weak.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion in yesterday’s trading sessions, as it advanced against most of its rivals after the gaps were filled. Japan’s leading indicators fell from 106.4% to 106.2% and no reports are lined up today, leaving risk sentiment responsible for most of the yen’s movement.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Falling commodity prices and the downturn in China’s stock market have been weighing on the comdolls for the past few days, and it didn’t help that Canada’s Ivey PMI missed expectations. The figure fell from 62.3 to 55.9, lower than the projected drop to 56.2. The RBA is set to make its policy statement today and no actual changes are expected but officials could continue to jawbone the currency. Canada’s trade balance is also due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

475

USD

The US dollar was able to benefit from risk-off flows once more, as the EU Summit resulted in an ultimatum for Greece to accept the bailout proposal or exit the euro zone. Apart from that, the selloff in the Chinese stock market has been weighing heavily on risk sentiment, supporting lower-yielding currencies like USD. Data from the US economy came in line with expectations, as the trade deficit widened slightly. For today, the release of the FOMC minutes could pose a significant event risk for dollar trades, as cautious comments could dash hopes of a September rate hike.

EUR

The euro was under heavy selling pressure following the EU Summit, as talks between the Greek government officials and its creditors broke down once more. Greece has been given a five-day deadline to agree to the bailout or to leave the euro zone, which could mean more weakness for the shared currency. There are no reports lined up from the euro zone today, leaving traders to keep focusing on updates from Greece.

GBP

The pound joined the rest of its European peers in selling off strongly against the dollar and other safe-havens, as risk aversion extended its stay in the financial markets. Data from the UK came in mixed, as manufacturing production slipped by 0.6% while industrial production showed a stronger than expected 0.4% gain. The UK government annual budget release is scheduled today.

CHF

The franc also sold off in recent trading, even though data from Switzerland was mostly unchanged from previous months. The franc followed in the euro’s footsteps, as the shared currency continued to be dragged lower by Greece. There are no reports lined up from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen was able to take advantage of the pickup in risk aversion, even though Prime Minister Abe suggested that another round of BOJ stimulus could be added prior to another sales tax hike. Earlier today, Japan printed a stronger than expected current account balance of 1.64T JPY versus the projected 1.32T JPY surplus. No other reports are lined up from Japan, leaving risk sentiment as the main driver of price action for yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls suffered more hurt from another wave of risk sentiment, especially since Chinese equities resumed their slide in today’s Asian trading session. Yesterday, the RBA decided to keep interest rates on hold but reiterated the negative impact of falling commodity prices. Canada printed a weaker than expected trade deficit of 3.3 billion CAD versus the projected 2.6 billion CAD shortfall. Canadian building permits and US crude oil inventories could push the Loonie around today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

476

USD

The US dollar gave back some of its recent gains to its counterparts when the FOMC minutes contained no clear indication that the Fed was ready to hike in September. In fact, the minutes showed a lot of concern when it comes to Greece and potential risks to domestic growth. US initial jobless claims data are up for release today and a speech by FOMC member Brainard is lined up.

EUR

The euro managed to recover some of its recent losses, as traders warmed up to the idea of a Grexit. There have been no reports released from the euro zone yesterday while today has only the German trade balance on tap. Updates from Greece could continue to direct the shared currency’s movement, along with risk flows.

GBP

The pound continued to sell off against most of its forex rivals, despite better than expected Halifax HPI data. The government’s budget release didn’t rattle pound traders so much while the upcoming BOE statement might also be a non-event. No changes to interest rates and asset purchases are expected, although BOE officials could start expressing their concerns about Greece.

CHF

The franc also regained a bit of ground in recent trading, possibly due to profit-taking and the dollar’s slide. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, leaving the franc to take its cue from risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen gave back some of its recent gains when risk appetite seemed to return to the markets. Chinese equities halted their slide, but this was probably spurred by the temporary closure of some exchanges and the injection of a 260 billion CNY fund from a government-owned entity. Data from Japan was mixed, as the current account balance beat expectations while the Economy Watchers sentiment index showed a decline. Core machinery orders showed a better than expected 0.6% gain in today’s release.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie took a break from its recent slide, thanks to better than expected jobs data from Australia. The economy added 7.3K jobs in June instead of showing a 2.1K decline in hiring while the jobless rate came in at 6.0% versus the projected 6.1% figure. Yesterday, Canada reported a 14.5% slide in building permits and led to a Loonie selloff. Canadian housing starts are up for release later today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

477

USD

The US dollar returned most of its recent gains in yesterday’s trading sessions when risk appetite started to improve. News that the Greek government is gearing up to submit a revised economic reform plan lowered the odds of a Grexit while the recovery in Chinese equities also prevented further capital flight. Initial jobless claims came in worse than expected at a reading of 297K versus the projected 274K figure. For today, Fed Chairperson Yellen is set to give a speech and possibly push dollar pairs around.

EUR

The euro had a positive day when the Greek government made an effort to revise their reform proposal to be more in tune with their creditors’ demands. Data from the euro zone came in better than expected, with Germany printing a larger trade surplus. For today, French and Italian industrial production figures are due but the market focus could be on the updates leading up to the end of the Greek five-day ultimatum.

GBP

The pound was still generally weaker compared to most of its forex counterparts despite the pickup in risk appetite yesterday. The BOE didn’t make any monetary policy changes as expected while today has the trade balance and construction output figures on tap.

CHF

The franc regained ground against its forex rivals, as it followed in the euro’s footsteps. There have been no reports released from Switzerland yesterday and there are no reports lined up for today, leaving the franc dependent on euro trade flows again.

JPY

The yen gave up its recent wins when risk aversion retreated in the markets. Positive developments in China and Greece eased some of the fears in the markets while weak PPI figures from Japan also spurred yen weakness. Producer prices fell by 2.4% versus the projected 2.2% decline year-over-year in June. No other reports are due from Japan, which means that yen pairs could continue to move to the tune of risk sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls saw a strong recovery in the past trading sessions as higher-yielding currencies took advantage of risk appetite. Data from Australia came in better than expected, as the economy added 7.3K jobs in June versus the projected 2.1K decline. Chinese CPI also came in better than expected at 1.4% versus the projected climb from 1.2% to 1.3%. Earlier today, Australia reported a 6.1% slump in home loans. Later on Canada is set to print its jobs figures and possibly show a 9K drop in hiring.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

478

USD

The US dollar opened higher against most of its forex counterparts upon finding out that there has been no deal struck over the weekend between Greece and its creditors just yet. Data from the US was weaker than expected last Friday, as wholesale inventories showed a 0.8% figure versus the projected 0.3% reading, reflecting oversupply. There are no major reports lined up from the US economy today, as risk sentiment could be responsible for the dollar’s price action.

EUR

The euro gapped down against its forex rivals when Greece was unable to get its reform plans approved. More meetings are scheduled for the rest of the week and the lack of any resolution could keep bearish pressure on the euro. Data from the euro zone came in mixed on Friday, as the French industrial production fell short of expectations with a 0.4% gain while the Italian industrial production figure showed a stronger than expected 0.9% increase. No reports are lined up from the region today, with the focus mostly on the Eurogroup meetings.

GBP

The pound resumed its selloff to most of its currency counterparts, despite the stronger than expected trade balance release from the UK last Friday. The deficit narrowed from 9.4 billion GBP to 8.0 billion GBP, reflecting an improvement in trade activity. The BOE credit conditions report is up for release today and this should provide a picture of borrowing activity in the economy.

CHF

The franc followed in the euro’s footsteps and sold off against most of its rivals when the Greek debt talks failed to put an end to the current crisis. There were no reports from Switzerland then and none are due today, indicating that Greek updates could continue to push franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen continued to give up ground against its rivals when data from Japan came in mixed earlier today. This allowed yen pairs to quickly fill the gaps from the weekend. The industrial production figure saw a small upgrade from -2.2% to -2.1% but the tertiary industry activity index printed a worse than expected 0.7% drop instead of the projected 0.2% dip.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls drew a bit of support from better than expected export figures from China, even though the headline trade balance showed a smaller than expected surplus. Imports also logged in a 6.7% decline, suggesting weaker demand for raw materials and commodities. There are no reports lined up from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

479

USD

The US dollar regained ground against most of its forex counterparts when risk aversion popped its head back in the markets yesterday. Even with a Greek bailout deal in the works, traders still don’t seem to be buying into the idea that this could stabilize the financial situation in the region. There were no reports released from the US economy then while today has the retail sales figures on tap. The headline figure could show a 0.2% uptick while the core figure could show a 0.7% gain, weaker than the previous 1.2% increase in headline retail sales and 1.0% rise in core retail sales. Stronger than expected data could still keep the dollar supported.

EUR

The euro didn’t seem to be too happy about Greece’s revised reform proposal, as this could end up being too strict on austerity and putting the debt-ridden nation much deeper in recession. The German ZEW economic sentiment index is due today and it could show a drop from 31.5 to 30.6 for July while the region’s figure could fall from 53.7 to 51.1. Further developments on the Greek bailout deal could continue to push euro pairs around.

GBP

The pound managed to score a few gains then retreat in recent trading sessions, as there were no top-tier economic releases from the UK yesterday. Today has the UK CPI and BOE Inflation Report hearings on tap and these might spur additional volatility for pound pairs. The headline CPI is expected to fall from 0.1% to 0.0% while the core CPI could stand its ground at 0.9%. BOE Governor Carney also has a speech lined up and if he reiterates his confidence in the UK economic outlook, the pound might be in for more gains.

CHF

The franc was also in a weak spot recently and even chalked up losses to the euro, as traders were cautious about another SNB intervention. Swiss PPI is up for release today and market participants are expecting to see a 0.2% rebound from the previous 0.8% decline. Apart from that, Greek debt updates could also spur moves among franc pairs.

JPY

The yen posted losses in earlier trading sessions but regained ground as risk aversion returned later on. Data from Japan was mixed, with the industrial production report showing a small upgrade and the tertiary industry index missing expectations with its 0.7% drop. No reports are lined up from Japan today, keeping risk sentiment in play.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls weakened to the dollar in recent trading session, as commodity prices resumed their slump. The Aussie managed to score some gains earlier today though, after Australia printed an improvement in its NAB business confidence index. There are no other reports lined up from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

480

USD

The US dollar returned most of its recent wins when the US retail sales figures fell short of expectations. The headline figure showed a 0.3% decline while the core version of the report showed a 0.1% dip when analysts were expecting to see a 0.2% increase and a 0.7% gain respectively. Apart from that, the previous month’s readings were downgraded to show a 0.8% increase in core retail sales and a 1.0% rise in headline retail sales from the previous 1.0% and 1.2% readings. Import prices were also weaker than expected with a 0.1% decline versus the projected 0.1% uptick. For today, industrial production and PPI data are up for release, along with the Empire State manufacturing index. Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen’s speech might also spur additional volatility among dollar pairs in the US session.

EUR

The euro regained a bit of ground to the dollar but was still weaker against most of its other forex counterparts, as the Greek bailout proposal seems to be encountering trouble in parliament. In addition, potential political trouble could also make it more difficult for the to achieve its debt targets, which might put it back in a default position once the funds run out. Data from the euro zone was weaker than expected, with the German ZEW index falling from 31.5 to 29.7 and the euro zone ZEW dropping from 53.7 to 42.7, mostly due to the Greek debt issue. The Greek parliament should pass legislation to enact reforms required in the bailout deal within the day but further conflict could keep euro pairs weak.

GBP

The pound enjoyed a strong boost from hawkish BOE Inflation Report hearings, as Governor Carney said that they are moving closer to hiking interest rates. This is a much more upbeat outlook compared to their previous assessment that the next move is likely to be a rate hike, although they didn’t confirm when this might take place. CPI figures were weaker than expected though, as the headline reading fell from 0.1% to 0.0% while the core figure dipped from 0.9% to 0.8%. PPI was also weaker than expected, as it recorded a sharper drop in input prices due to the fall in crude oil and petroleum products. The jobs figures are due today and a 8.9K decline in claimant count is eyed, along with an increase from 2.7% to 3.3% in average earnings.

CHF

The franc was in a weak spot after the Swiss PPI fell short of expectations and logged in a 0.1% dip instead of the projected 0.2% rebound. Only the ZEW economic expectations index is up for release today and an improvement from the previous 0.1 reading might be enough to keep the currency afloat.

JPY

The yen gave up ground against most of its forex counterparts when risk appetite stayed in the markets. There have been no reports released from Japan then while today had the BOJ statement on tap. No actual policy changes have been announced.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained a bit of ground in recent trading, although oil prices have been on the decline after the Iran nuclear deal was passed. The country has pledged to double its oil production, which might mean more declines in prices later on. Today, the BOC will make its monetary policy statement and some analysts are expecting an interest rate cut. Later on, New Zealand will have its dairy trade auction while the quarterly CPI will be released.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

481

USD

The US dollar regained ground against its forex rivals when risk aversion returned to the markets. Fed Chairperson Yellen’s positive remarks on the US economy was also reassuring for dollar bulls, reminding market watchers that a rate hike is still possible for this year. Another speech from Yellen is on today’s docket, along with the release of the Philly Fed index.

EUR

The euro wasn’t able to draw much support from the Greek parliament’s approval of the bailout proposal, as traders were probably more focused on the difficulties of enacting these reforms. Some worry that the harsh austerity measures would push Greece deeper in recession and put the country back in a potential default sooner or later. Euro zone final CPI readings are due today but the bigger market-mover might be the ECB interest rate statement, during which Draghi might remark on the emergency lending fund to Greece.

GBP

The pound managed to trim its losses in recent trading sessions, as the currency was supported by a hawkish BOE outlook. Jobs figures came in weaker than expected, with the economy losing 7K jobs in June and the jobless rate climbing back up to 5.6%. Average weekly earnings was a tad weaker than expected at 3.2% versus the estimated 3.3% figure but still indicated a jump from the previous 2.7% reading. There are no major reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc was also in a weak spot in recent trading, although there were no reports weighing on the currency. Today has the retail sales report on tap and a climb from 1.6% to 1.9% is eyed for June. Also lined up is the foreign securities purchases report, which should provide traders an idea of whether or not the SNB is still intervening.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion to advance against most of its rivals, except for the US dollar. The BOJ didn’t make any changes to their monetary policy as expected and their monthly report didn’t contain any adjustments to their outlook. Risk sentiment could continue to drive yen pairs around today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The BOC decided to cut interest rates in their latest policy statement, citing the slowdown in China and the U.S., as well as lower business investment in oil industries. The Kiwi was also under heavy selling pressure after the global dairy auction churned out a 10.7% drop in prices and the country reported a 0.4% quarterly inflation reading, lower than the projected 0.5% rise. Analysts are downgrading their milk payout forecasts for Fonterra and predicting a rate cut from the RBNZ next week. In Australia, the MI inflation expectations index climbed from 3.0% to 3.4%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way