Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

Commercial Content Analysts
666

USD

The US dollar was able to hold on to its gains and go for more when risk aversion extended its stay in the financial markets. Data from the US economy came in mixed, as the Philly Fed index fell from 12.4 to -1.6 instead of just dipping to 8.1 while initial jobless claims came in at 247K, lower than the projected 265K increase in joblessness. There are no major reports due from the US today so earnings data could play a role in dollar price action and market sentiment.

EUR

The euro had a volatile run even after the ECB decided to keep monetary policy unchanged as expected. Price spiked around during the ECB press conference when Draghi acknowledged a few signs of improvement but admitted that inflation might even turn negative. He emphasized that the central bank will employ all monetary tools if necessary. Euro zone PMI readings are up for release today and improvements are expected from the manufacturing and services sectors of France and Germany.

GBP

The pound was unable to hold on to its gains when the UK retail sales report came in weaker than expected. Consumer spending fell 1.3% instead of just 0.1% while the February figure was downgraded to show a larger decline of 0.5% from the initial 0.4% drop. Public sector borrowing fell from 6.3M GBP to 4.2M GBP, indicating some improvement in government debt. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc continued to lose ground against its peers when the Swiss trade balance printed a smaller than expected surplus of 2.16B CHF compared to the estimated 3.89B CHF surplus. In addition, the previous month’s reading was downgraded. There are no major reports due from Switzerland today.

JPY

The yen was able to take advantage of the run in risk aversion yesterday, gaining ground against the dollar as well. Earlier today, the flash manufacturing PMI printed a weaker than expected result of 48.0 from the previous 49.1 reading. Analysts had expected a climb to 49.6. The tertiary industry activity figure is up for release and a 0.4% drop is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls returned some of their recent wins when crude oil prices retreated on the news that Libya is set to double its oil production upon the formation of a new government. Data from New Zealand showed improvements in credit card spending and job opportunities. Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are up for release today. Headline CPI could rise by 0.3% while core CPI could increase by 0.4%. Headline and core retail sales are expected to post 0.8% declines.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

667

USD

The US dollar was able to advance against most of its forex peers, except for the British pound. Data from the US was weaker than expected, as its flash manufacturing PMI fell from 51.5 to 50.8 instead of improving to the estimated 51.9 reading. For today, only the new home sales report is due and a rise from 512K to 521K is eyed.

EUR

The euro resumed its slide to the dollar and pound but was stronger against the Japanese yen. Flash PMI readings from the manufacturing and services sectors of France and Germany came in mixed while the region’s overall readings met expectations. The German Ifo business climate index is due today and a rise from 106.7 to 107.1 is expected.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to most of its gains to the dollar and advance to the euro, as anti-Brexit remarks appear to be increasing the odds that voters might decide to stay in the EU. There were no reports out of the UK then while the CBI industrial orders expectations report is due today.

CHF

The franc gave up further ground to the dollar but was in a weak spot against the Japanese yen. There were no reports out from Switzerland then and none are due today so the Swissy might simply act as a counter currency.

JPY

The yen gave up a lot of ground to its peers when traders started speculating about additional BOJ easing this week. There were no reports out of Japan on Friday but yen pairs scored hundreds of pips in gains with market watchers predicting that the recent quakes could mean more stimulus. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance as they retreated to the dollar but took advantage of yen weakness. Data from Canada came in stronger than expected, as CPI and retail sales figures beat expectations. Australian and New Zealand banks are closed for the holiday today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

668

USD

Dollar pairs were in consolidation due to the lack of top-tier data and positioning ahead of the FOMC statement. New home sales came in weaker than expected with a decline from 519K to 511K. US CB consumer confidence data is due today and a drop from 96.2 to 95.8 is eyed. Also lined up today is the flash services PMI and the Richmond manufacturing index, along with the durable goods orders figures.

EUR

The euro made a bit of a recovery in recent sessions despite weaker than expected data. The German Ifo business climate index fell from 106.7 to 106.6 instead of improving to the projected 107.1 figure. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound was able to hold on to its gains as voters appear to be digesting the anti-Brexit comments from top officials lately. Data from the UK was also better than expected, as the CBI industrial orders expectations index rose from -14 to -11 instead of sliding to the projected -17 figure. There are no reports due from the UK today but MPC member Cunliffe has a testimony lined up.

CHF

The franc chalked up some gains even though there were no reports out of Switzerland. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today, keeping the franc as a counter currency that’s sensitive to country-specific events or market sentiment.

JPY

The yen regained ground on Monday after gapping lower over the weekend, as PM Abe shared his plan to create an additional budget for earthquake rebuilding efforts. This lessens the pressure on the BOJ to dole out stimulus in their announcement later this week, although the fact remains that the Japanese economy is very weak and the yen’s appreciation is hurting inflation. There are no reports due from Japan today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls managed a late recovery as Australian and New Zealand banks reopened after the Monday holiday. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today but BOC Governor Poloz has a couple of speeches scheduled.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

669

USD

The US dollar retreated to most of its forex peers on downbeat data released yesterday. Headline durable goods orders were up 0.8% versus the projected 1.9% gain while core durable goods orders fell 0.2% instead of showing the estimated 0.6% rise. The flash services PMI improved to 52.1 but fell short of expectations at 52.3 while the Richmond manufacturing index slid from 22 to 14. The FOMC is set to announce their monetary policy decision later today and no actual changes are expected but traders are waiting to find out if a June rate hike is still in the cards.

EUR

The euro had a mixed performance as it rallied then reversed to the dollar, advanced against the yen, and weakened to the pound. There were no major reports out of the euro zone then, which explains why the shared currency simply reacted to country-specific events and market sentiment. German import prices and the German GfK consumer climate index are due today.

GBP

The pound was still one of the strongest performers but it gave up a bit of ground upon seeing the latest ICM poll results, which indicated that 46% of those included in the survey are voting for a Brexit. The UK preliminary GDP reading is up for release today and a 0.4% growth figure is eyed, lower than the previous 0.6% expansion.

CHF

The franc took advantage of dollar weakness but was still mostly weaker against its other counterparts. There have been no major reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the UBS consumption indicator on tap. A reading higher than the previous 1.53 figure could give the Swiss currency a boost.

JPY

The yen continued to lag against its forex rivals as traders keep pricing in expectations for additional easing or dovish remarks from the BOJ statement this week. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday while today has the all industries activity index on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a 1.3% decline after the report previously printed a 2.0% gain.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to take advantage of dollar and yen weakness but were no match to pound strength. Data from New Zealand was weaker than expected, as the trade surplus fell short of estimates. In Australia, the quarterly CPI is due and a 0.3% gain in price levels is eyed. Crude oil inventories data is lined up ahead of the RBNZ rate decision in the late US session.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

670

USD

The US dollar gave up more ground to its peers when the US advance GDP turned out to be a disappointment. The economy grew by only 0.5% in the first quarter versus the projected 0.7% expansion. This marks the weakest pace of quarterly growth in two years. Initial jobless claims was slightly better than expected. For today the core PCE price index, personal spending and income, and Chicago PMI are up for release.

EUR

The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but it was no match to its other counterparts. Data from the euro zone came in mixed. The German preliminary CPI printed a 0.2% decline as expected while the Spanish flash CPI showed a sharper than expected drop of 1.1% versus the projected 0.7% dip. Meanwhile, the German unemployment change report showed a 16K drop in joblessness instead of the estimated 1K rise. Euro zone flash CPI estimates, French preliminary GDP and CPI, German retail sales, and the Spanish flash GDP are up for release today.

GBP

The pound advanced against most of its rivals except for the Japanese yen. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday and only medium-tier reports are lined up today. These include the net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals figures.

CHF

The franc carried on with its climb to the dollar but lost ground to the yen. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the KOF economic barometer due. Analysts are expecting a climb from 102.5 to 102.9. Also scheduled today is a speech from SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan.

JPY

The yen was unstoppable in its rallies after the BOJ refrained from making any monetary policy changes. This turned out very disappointing for market participants who were counting on some form of easing, such as negative lending rates. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls held their ground to the dollar but caved to yen strength. The RBNZ also kept interest rates on hold but gave a downbeat outlook and reiterated that further Kiwi declines might be appropriate. Australian PPI and private sector credit are up for release in today’s Asian session while the Canadian monthly GDP is due later on. Chinese PMI readings are scheduled for release over the weekend.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

671

USD

The US dollar chalked up a mixed performance on Friday, as it advanced to the comdolls but gave up ground to the euro, franc, and yen. Data from the US was also mixed, with the core PCE price index and employment cost index coming in line with expectations. The Chicago PMI and revised UoM consumer sentiment figure both fell short. Personal income rose 0.4% while personal spending rose by 0.1% only. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 51.8 to 51.6 is eyed.

EUR

The euro managed to advance against most of its rivals despite downbeat data from the euro zone. The headline CPI estimate fell from 1.0% to 0.8% versus expectations at 0.9% while the core figure showed a 0.2% decline. However, the preliminary GDP beat expectations at 0.6%. Other medium-tier reports from the region’s top economies came in stronger than expected, except for the German retail sales report which showed a 1.1% drop. Final manufacturing PMIs from its top economies are due today. ECB head Draghi has a speech lined up.

GBP

The pound gave up ground to its peers on mostly weaker than expected UK data. Net lending to individuals beat expectations while M4 money supply and mortgage approvals came up short. UK banks are closed for the May Day holiday today.

CHF

The franc lost further ground to the yen but managed to advance to the dollar. The KOF economic barometer fell from 102.8 to 102.7 versus expectations at 102.9. The Swiss manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 53.2 to 53.6 is eyed.

JPY

The yen continued to rally against its forex peers, chalking up another strong set of gains after the BOJ statement the previous day. There were no reports out of Japan on Friday as banks were closed on a holiday then while the final manufacturing PMI is due today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls had a mixed performance, as the Aussie lagged while the Kiwi advanced. Canada’s monthly GDP reading showed a 0.1% contraction for February as expected. Over the weekend, the Chinese official manufacturing PMI showed a drop from 50.2 to 50.1 while the non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.8 to 53.5. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

672

USD

The US dollar gave up ground to most of its peers when data came in below expectations. The ISM manufacturing PMI slid from 51.8 to 50.8 in April, lower than the estimated drop to 51.6. The employment and prices components showed decent gains but the headline figure was dragged lower by weaker inventories, deliveries, and production. There are no major reports lined up from the US today.

EUR

The euro continued to advance against its peers as data came in mostly in line with expectations. Spain’s manufacturing PMI even beat the forecast at 53.5 versus 53.0 to show a stronger pace of growth. Only the region’s PPI is up for release from the euro zone today and a 0.1% uptick is eyed.

GBP

The pound gave up some ground to its peers as UK banks were closed for the holiday. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a climb from 51.0 to 51.3 is eyed, indicating stronger industry expansion.

CHF

The franc advanced to most of its rivals, buoyed by strong Swiss manufacturing PMI. The index rose from 53.2 to 54.7 versus the consensus at 53.6 to show a faster pace of expansion. However, Swiss retail sales showed a 1.3% year-over-year decline instead of the projected 0.3% uptick while the previous reading was downgraded. In addition, SNB head Jordan reiterated that the currency remains overvalued.

JPY

The yen pulled back in the earlier trading sessions but resumed its climb later on. The final manufacturing PMI was upgraded from 48.0 to 48.2, ushering in a bit of risk appetite in the Asian session. However, the lower-yielding currency took advantage of dollar weakness and advanced to most of its counterparts for the rest of the day. Japanese banks are closed on a holiday today.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls regained ground on dollar weakness but were still no match to yen strength. Australian building approvals and the RBA decision are the main event risks for the Aussie today while New Zealand has the GDT auction and the quarterly jobs report due in the late US session or early Asian session the next day. Hiring could rise by 0.6% but the jobless rate is slated to rise from 5.3% to 5.5%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

673

USD

The US dollar made a strong recovery in recent sessions, although there were no reports out of the US economy then. The ADP non-farm employment change report is up for release today and a 205K gain is eyed, slightly higher than the previous 200K increase. Due later on are the quarterly preliminary non-farm productivity and unit labor costs, as well as the US trade balance and ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

EUR

The euro returned some of its recent gains to the dollar but managed to hold on to its wins against the pound and commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the region but the EU economic forecasts did contain a few upbeat notes. Final services PMI readings from the region’s top economies are due today, along with the Spanish unemployment change report.

GBP

The pound lost a lot of ground in recent sessions as the UK manufacturing PMI fell from 50.7 to 49.2, reflecting industry contraction, instead of rising to the estimated 51.3 figure. The construction PMI is up for release today and a dip from 54.2 to 54.1 is eyed, although another weak result could spur more losses.

CHF

The franc returned some of its recent wins to the dollar and its other counterparts when the SECO consumer climate slipped from -14 to -15 instead of improving to -12. There are no major reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc could take its cue from the euro.

JPY

Yen pairs made a quick pullback towards the end of the US session, although there were no clear catalysts for the sharp move. Japanese banks were closed on a holiday yesterday and are still closed today so market sentiment could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls chalked up large losses to the dollar, particularly the Loonie which was dragged down by a 2% drop in oil prices. In New Zealand, the GDT auction showed a 1.4% drop in dairy prices. Their quarterly jobs report indicated a 1.2% gain in hiring for Q1 but the unemployment rate rose from 5.4% to 5.7% as the working-age population grew. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

674

USD

The US dollar was able to regain ground in recent sessions, even though data from the US came in mixed. The ADP non-farm employment change printed a meager 156K gain in hiring versus the projected 205K increase, suggesting a possible downside surprise for the NFP. On the other hand, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose from 54.5 to 55.7, higher than the consensus at 54.7. For today, initial jobless claims are up for release and a 261K reading is eyed.

EUR

The euro consolidated to the dollar and yen but was able to advance against commodity currencies when euro zone data came in mostly in line with expectations. German final services PMI and Italian services PMI both beat expectations but euro zone retail sales fell 0.5% instead of printing the estimated 0.1% uptick. Euro zone banks are closed in observance of Ascension Day today.

GBP

The pound was in a weak spot against most of its forex rivals as the UK construction PMI came in weaker than expected. The reading fell from 54.2 to 52.0 to indicate a much slower pace of industry growth. For today, the services PMI is due and a drop from 53.7 to 53.6 is expected, with another downbeat result likely to push the pound lower.

CHF

The franc returned some of its recent wins despite the lack of top-tier reports from Switzerland. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today since banks are closed in observance of Ascension Day.

JPY

The yen was slightly weaker against its forex peers since Japanese traders were out on a holiday. There are no reports up for release from the Japanese economy today which means that risk sentiment could drive yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was one of the weakest performers as the forest fires in Alberta led to the shutdown of some oil operations in the area. US crude oil inventories rose 2.8 million barrels, which suggests that oversupply concerns are still present. Australian retail sales showed a 0.4% uptick versus the projected 0.3% gain while the trade deficit narrowed from 3.04 billion AUD to 2.16 billion AUD, driven by a 4% gain in exports.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

675

USD

Dollar pairs were mostly stuck in consolidation in the US trading session as traders probably lightened their positions ahead of the NFP release. Challenger job cuts increased 5.8% year-over-year or by 65K, a slower pace compared to the previous month’s jump. Initial jobless claims landed at 274K versus the estimated 261K reading. Analysts are expecting to see 203K in hiring gains for April, which might keep the jobless rate unchanged at 5.0%, while average hourly earnings could show another 0.3% gain.

EUR

The euro retreated against most of its forex peers as European banks were closed on a holiday yesterday. Only the retail PMI is up for release today and a rise from the earlier 49.2 reading could be positive for the shared currency.

GBP

The pound seemed unfazed by weaker than expected services PMI, as the reading fell from 53.7 to 52.3 versus the projected dip to 53.6. The election in London, which would lead to Boris Johnson’s replacement, inspired a fresh round of anti-Brexit sentiments and allowed the currency to stay supported. There are no reports due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc sold off sharply in the latter trading sessions, although there seemed to be no clear catalyst scheduled. Traders probably liquidated some of their holdings ahead of today’s Swiss foreign currency reserves data release, as this might indicate intervention efforts.

JPY

The yen consolidated to the dollar but resumed its climb to the commodity currencies in the latter sessions as risk aversion took hold. Japanese traders are returning from their holidays today but no reports are scheduled for release from Japan.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls gave way to risk aversion and this selloff was worsened by today’s RBA monetary policy statement release. The report featured a downgrade on inflation forecasts, suggesting that there may be scope for further easing. Canadian building permits slumped by 7% instead of the projected 4.6% drop. Canada’s jobs report is due today and a 0.2K increase in hiring is eyed, lower than the earlier 40.6K gain.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

676

USD

The US dollar lost some ground to its forex counterparts on Friday when the NFP reading missed expectations. The economy added only 160K jobs in April versus the estimated 203K gain while previous readings were also downgraded. Only the labor market conditions index is up for release from the US economy today.

EUR

The euro was generally weaker against the dollar and yen but managed to advance against comdolls. Euro zone retail PMI fell from 49.2 to 47.9 to show a sharper contraction. German factory orders and the euro zone Sentix investor confidence figures are up for release today.

GBP

The pound shrugged off weaker than expected PMI readings earlier in the week and drew support from renewed anti-Brexit sentiment, with London mayor Johnson leaving his post. Only the Halifax HPI is due from the UK today.

CHF

The franc continued to sell off on Friday, especially since the foreign currency reserves data showed a climb from 576B CHF to 588B CHF. Swiss CPI is due today and a 0.2% uptick is eyed, with weaker than expected results likely to spur more franc losses.

JPY

The yen consolidated to most of its peers even with the return of Japanese traders from their long holiday. The BOJ meeting minutes were released today but these didn’t spark much volatility, although the yen appears to be losing ground as of this writing.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were mostly weaker on Friday, especially after the RBA monetary policy statement indicated a weaker inflation outlook and scope for additional easing. Later on, the Canadian jobs report showed a 2.1K drop in hiring versus the estimated 0.2K gain. Over the weekend, the Chinese trade balance beat expectations with a larger surplus of 298B CNY.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

677

USD

The US dollar was slightly higher against its peers, as traders flocked back to the US currency when Japanese officials began jawboning again. US labor market conditions index improved from -2.1 to -0.9. US JOLTS job openings and wholesale inventories are up for release today.

EUR

The euro managed to hold its ground against most of its peers, even advancing to the US dollar. Data from the euro zone came in mostly stronger than expected, as the German factory orders rose 1.9% versus the projected 0.7% increase while the Sentix investor confidence index improved from 5.7 to 6.2, outpacing the estimate at 6.1. German and French industrial production numbers are up for release today.

GBP

The pound was slightly weaker against its counterparts as traders started pricing in expectations for this week’s BOE statement. No actual policy changes are expected but officials might sound more dovish than usual, given the recent disappointments in UK PMI data. UK Halifax HPI posted a 0.8% drop in house prices versus the projected 0.1% uptick. There are no major reports lined up from the UK economy today.

CHF

The franc was able to score some gains after the Swiss CPI beat expectations with a 0.3% gain versus the projected 0.2% uptick. The Swiss unemployment rate is due today and no change from the 3.5% figure is eyed.

JPY

The yen gave up ground to its rivals when Finance Minister Aso repeated his intervention threats, citing that they will not hesitate to act if the yen rallies too sharply. Average cash earnings rose 1.4% in Japan, higher than the projected 0.6% gain.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were generally weaker as traders reacted to the 10.9% slump in Chinese imports, which prompted talks of easing from the RBA and RBNZ. NZ Finance Minister English suggested that the RBNZ might implement macro-prudential measures to cool housing inflation, possibly setting the stage for a rate cut next month. Chinese CPI came in line with expectations at 2.3% while the PPI was better than expected at -3.4% versus -3.8%.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

678

USD

The US dollar gave up ground to the commodity currencies but was able to hold steady against the euro and the yen. Medium-tier reports from the US economy turned out stronger than expected, as JOLTS job openings gained while the NFIB Small Business index improved. For today, only the US crude oil inventories data is up for release.

EUR

The euro edged lower to most of its forex peers when German and French industrial production numbers missed expectations. The former sank by 1.3% while the latter fell 0.3%. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.

GBP

The pound managed to hold on to some of its gains despite the lack of top-tier data from the UK. Medium-tier reports showed weak results, with the BRC retail sales monitor falling by 0.9% and the goods trade deficit mostly unchanged. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 0.4% rebound is eyed.

CHF

The franc continued to retreat against its peers even as the Swiss unemployment rate came in line with expectations at 3.5%. There are no major reports due from the Swiss economy today so consolidation could be seen or the franc could be pushed around by risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen continued to weaken against its counterparts as traders worried about possible intervention. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and only the leading indicators figure is due today. Risk sentiment could continue to drive the lower-yielding Japanese currency for the next sessions.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls made a strong rebound in yesterday’s sessions, thanks to a pickup in crude oil. The EIA upgraded their global demand forecasts for this year and the next, acknowledging that the market is starting to calm down. In New Zealand, the RBNZ refrained from making any adjustments for lending conditions, easing rate cut speculations. There are no major reports due from the comdolls for the next few hours.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

679

USD

The US dollar gave up ground to its forex counterparts as there were no major reports to give it any support yesterday. Initial jobless claims and import prices data are up for release today, along with speeches from FOMC member Rosengren and George.

EUR

The euro managed to regain some ground to the dollar but was weaker to the comdolls. There were no major reports out of the euro zone then while today has medium-tier data like German WPI, French final CPI, and euro zone industrial production numbers due.

GBP

The pound could be in for a lot of volatility as the BOE statement, MPC minutes, and Inflation Report are all lined up today. A downbeat statement is eyed since business conditions and trade activity have weakened recently. UK manufacturing production posted a mere 0.1% uptick while industrial production missed expectations with a meager 0.3% gain versus the projected 0.7% rise.

CHF

The franc regained ground to the dollar but weakened to the euro. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, keeping the franc sensitive to euro price action.

JPY

The yen got back on its feet yesterday as risk appetite improved in the Asian markets. Japan’s leading indicators came in better than expected with its 98.4% reading versus the consensus at 96.4%. Earlier today, the current account balance came in line with expectations while bank lending data showed a 2.2% pickup in activity.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls advance against their peers after the US crude oil inventories report showed a drop of 3.4 million barrels in stockpiles. This eased oversupply concerns somewhat, as the reduction stemmed from Venezuela and further declines are expected from Canada in the coming weeks. New Zealand retail sales data are up for release next and slightly weaker figures are eyed. The headline figure could post a 1.0% gain while the core figure could show a 1.1% increase.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

680

USD

The US dollar was in a weak spot in the earlier sessions but was able to get back in the game during the New York hours. Data from the US economy actually came in weaker than expected, with initial jobless claims landing at 294K and import prices posting a meager 0.3% uptick. FOMC officials sounded optimistic about economic prospects, maintaining that negative rates are not needed and that the likelihood of a rate hike is higher than what markets are pricing in. US retail sales and PPI numbers are due today.

EUR

The euro advanced in the London session but eventually retreated to its counterparts. Medium-tier euro zone data came in line with expectations then but traders probably booked profits ahead of today’s top-tier releases. GDP readings from the euro zone’s top economies are lined up ahead of the region’s growth figure, which might show a 0.6% expansion for the first quarter. Germany is also set to print its final CPI reading while France will report its non-farm payrolls figure.

GBP

The pound experienced a lot of volatility on Super Thursday but overall, the central bank was not as dovish as expected. BOE officials even upgraded their inflation forecasts slightly, but policymakers stressed that this was contingent on EU membership. Governor Carney reiterated the risks of a Brexit, adding that a technical recession might ensue and that monetary policy alone won’t be enough to counter these effects. Still, the bank kept policy unchanged as expected in a unanimous vote. BOE members Haldane and Weale have testimonies today.

CHF

The franc rallied then reversed for the day, as the currency took its cue from the euro and overall sentiment. There are still no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be driven by similar themes.

JPY

The yen regained a bit of ground towards the latter trading sessions, especially against the commodity currencies. The Economy Watchers sentiment index turned out weaker than expected, as it fell from 45.4 to 43.5, lower than the projected 44.9 reading. The tertiary industry activity index is due today and a 0.2% drop is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

Comdolls were still mostly weaker against their peers, as traders returned to their rate cut reactions and expectations. New Zealand retail sales came in slightly weaker than expected, as the headline figure rose 0.8% versus the projected 1.0% increase while the core figure posted a 1.0% gain instead of the estimated 1.1% reading. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today, although Chinese industrial production and retail sales readings are due over the weekend.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

681

USD

The US dollar got a boost from risk aversion and stronger than expected reports on Friday. Headline consumer spending rose 1.3% instead of posting the projected 0.3% drop while core retail sales gained 0.8%. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment advanced to 95.8 to indicate stronger optimism. Headline PPI posted a smaller than expected 0.2% uptick but core PPI printed the estimated 0.1% gain. The Empire State manufacturing index is up for release from the US economy today and a drop from 9.6 to 7.2 is expected to show a slowdown in activity.

EUR

The euro retreated to the dollar but managed to advance against commodity currencies as risk aversion returned on Friday. Euro zone flash GDP came in at 0.5%, lower than the estimated 0.6% growth figure. German final CPI was also downgraded to show a larger 0.4% drop in price levels. European banks are closed for the holiday today.

GBP

The pound was also weaker against the dollar and yen but it was able to hold its ground against the comdolls. There were no reports out of the UK economy on Friday and none are due today so market sentiment and Brexit talks could move pound pairs.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its peers, as the lack of Swiss data and the release of downbeat euro zone figures weighed on the currency. There are no reports due from Switzerland today since Swiss banks are closed for the holiday.

JPY

The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion on Friday, especially since traders had been bracing themselves for downbeat Chinese data. However, data from Japan was also similarly weak, as reported a 26.4% year-over-year drop in preliminary machine tool orders and a sharper than expected 4.2% drop in producer prices.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were the weakest in the bunch as downbeat data brought risk aversion back to the table. Chinese figures missed expectations, as industrial production fell from 6.8% to 6.0% while retail sales slowed from 10.5% to 10.1%. Fixed asset investment was also weaker than expected. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies for today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

682

USD

The US dollar failed to establish a clear direction in recent trading sessions, as the lack of top-tier data left it sensitive to country-specific events. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 9.6 to -9.0 instead of just dipping to 7.2. US CPI figures are due today and a pickup in from earlier reports is eyed. Also lined up are building permits and housing starts data, along with industrial production and capacity utilization figures.

EUR

The euro was mostly weaker against its peers even though there were no major reports out of the region as banks were closed for the holiday. Today has the region’s trade balance due and a wider surplus of 23.1 billion EUR is expected.

GBP

The pound managed to advance against most of its counterparts as some polls revealed a slight lead by anti-Brexit voters. The focus could shift back to economic data today as the UK CPI is due. No change from the earlier 0.5% headline figure and 1.5% core reading is expected.

CHF

The franc gave up ground to its peers even though Swiss banks were closed for the holiday. The Swiss PPI is due today and a 0.1% uptick in producer prices is expected. Weaker than expected results, however, could mean more losses for the currency.

JPY

The yen resumed its slide against some of its forex counterparts but remained stuck in consolidation to the dollar. Preliminary machine tool orders sank by 26.4% on a year-over-year basis in Japan. The preliminary GDP reading is due in the next Asian trading session and a 1.0% growth figure is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls strengthened in recent sessions, buoyed partly by gains in crude oil. Supply disruptions in Nigeria and Venezuela convinced Goldman Sachs to assess that the market is stabilizing, predicting that prices could reach $50/barrel by the second quarter of the year. New Zealand has its GDT auction scheduled along with the PPI releases in the late US session, with downbeat data likely to push the Kiwi back down.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

683

USD

The US dollar regained ground against its forex peers as data from the US economy came in mostly stronger than expected. Headline CPI rose 0.4% versus the 0.3% uptick expected while the core CPI posted the projected 0.2% increase. Industrial production rose 0.7%, higher than the estimated 0.3% reading, while both building approvals and housing starts gained. The FOMC minutes are up for release today and stronger hints about a June hike could spur more dollar gains.

EUR

The euro weakened to the dollar and yen but managed to bounce back against the comdolls and the pound. The region’s trade balance missed expectations at a surplus of 22.3 billion EUR versus the 23.1 billion EUR consensus. Euro zone final CPI readings are due today and no changes from the -0.2% headline figure and the 0.8% core figure are expected.

GBP

The pound managed to stay resilient despite weaker than expected UK CPI readings. The headline figure fell from 0.5% to 0.3% instead of holding steady while the core figure dropped from 1.5% to 1.2%. For today, the UK jobs report is due and a 4K increase in claimants is eyed. The jobless rate is expected to hold steady at 5.1% while the average earnings index could slide from 1.8% to 1.7%.

CHF

The franc was still in a weak spot even with stronger than expected data from Switzerland. Producer prices rose 0.3% versus the projected 0.1% uptick, also showing an improvement from the earlier flat reading. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen was able to rake in gains against its forex counterparts after the Japanese industrial production figure showed an upward revision from 3.6% to 3.8%. Earlier today, the Japanese GDP reading posted a stronger than expected 0.4% expansion versus the estimated 0.1% growth figure. Core machinery orders are lined up next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls retreated from their recent rallies despite an API report indicating a draw of 1.1 million barrels from stockpiles. Data from Canada was weaker than expected, as manufacturing sales dipped 0.9%. In New Zealand, the GDT auction showed a 2.6% rebound in dairy prices but PPI readings missed expectations. PPI input fell 1.0% instead of gaining 0.3% while PPI output fell 0.2% instead of rising by 0.4%. In Australia, the quarterly wage price index rose 0.4%, short of the estimated 0.5% increase.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

685

USD

The US dollar chalked up larger gains against its forex rivals when the FOMC minutes confirmed that some members were more optimistic about economic prospects. Some even argued that a June rate hike is likely if the US is able to sustain its growth, jobs, and inflation progress. There are no major reports due from the US economy today but FOMC members Fisher and Dudley have testimonies lined up.

EUR

The euro resumed its slide to the dollar but was able to hold on to its gains against its other rivals. Euro zone final CPI readings didn’t contain any revisions from the -0.2% headline figure and the 0.7% core figure. ECB meeting minutes and the euro zone current account balance are up for release today.

GBP

The pound was able to advance against its forex peers when UK jobs data beat expectations. The claimant count fell by 2.4K in April instead of showing the estimated 4.0K gain in joblessness. The average earnings index showed a return in wage growth as it climbed back to 2.0% from 1.8%. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1% as expected. UK retail sales data is due today and a 0.6% rebound in consumer spending is eyed.

CHF

The franc was mostly weaker against its counterparts as risk appetite came back in recent trading sessions. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so the franc could keep following risk sentiment.

JPY

The yen had a mixed performance as it continued to advance against the comdolls but gave up ground to the dollar and pound. Core machinery orders came in stronger than expected with a 5.5% gain instead of the estimated 1.9% drop. The all industries activity index is up for release next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were no match to dollar and yen strength. US crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels despite the disruptions in Nigeria, Venezuela, and Canada. Australia’s jobs report printed a weaker than expected employment change of 10.8K versus 12.1K but the jobless rate fell from 5.8% to 5.7%. New Zealand visitor arrivals data is due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way

686

USD

The US dollar seemed tired from its climb as it barely scored gains after some FOMC members reiterated their hawkish stance. Policymakers Fischer and Dudley acknowledged the green shoots in the economy and suggested that the next meeting could still have the possibility of a rate hike. Data from the US came in mixed, with initial jobless claims meeting expectations and the Philly Fed index slumping from -1.6 to -1.8 instead of improving to 3.2.

EUR

The euro had a mixed performance as the lack of top-tier data left it sensitive to country-specific events. Only the German PPI and euro zone current account balance are up for release today. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% uptick in German producer prices and a wider current account surplus of 19.6 billion EUR from the earlier 19.0 billion EUR.

GBP

The pound extended its gains thanks to stronger than expected UK retail sales. Consumer spending rose 1.3% in April versus expectations of a 0.6% rebound while the previous reading was revised to show a smaller decline of 0.5%.

CHF

The franc continued to weaken against its forex peers as there were no major reports out of Switzerland. There are still no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so a continuation of the current market sentiment could mean more losses for the franc.

JPY

The yen lost ground to most of its peers when risk appetite improved. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday, although data released earlier in the week came in mostly better than expected.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls continued to retreat despite the pickup in risk-taking, as the Aussie fell despite stronger than expected headline jobs data. Employment rose 10.8K versus the estimated 12.6K figure while the unemployment rate fell to 5.7% mostly due to a drop in labor force participation. Canadian inflation and consumer spending reports are due today. Headline CPI could rise 0.4% while core CPI is expected to post a 0.1% uptick. Headline retail sales could show a 0.7% drop while core retail sales could indicate a 0.4% decline.

By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way