USD
The US dollar stalled from its rallies earlier in the week, as traders likely lightened up on their holdings ahead of the weekend. There were no major reports out of the US economy then while today has the flash manufacturing PMI on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a climb from 50.8 to 51.0 to show a faster pace of industry expansion.
EUR
The euro managed to hold on to some of its recent gains as data from the region came in mixed. German PPI posted a 0.1% uptick in producer prices versus the projected 0.2% increase while the current account surplus widened to 27.3 billion EUR. Flash manufacturing and services PMI readings from Germany and France are lined up today and improvements are eyed, likely enough to support the shared currency.
GBP
The pound was one of the biggest losers on Friday, as the UK currency gave up ground on Brexit speculations and short-covering. UK data was stronger than expected, as the CBI industrial order expectations index rose from -11 to -8 instead of falling to -13. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc was able to recover against most of its peers when traders booked profits off their previous short positions. There were no reports released from the Swiss economy then and none are due today, although the franc could be pushed around by euro zone data.
JPY
The yen chalked up gains across the board when rumors of the BOJ gearing up to end its quantitative easing program hit the airwaves. Traders also booked profits off their earlier short positions ahead of the G7 Summit over the weekend, as leaders discussed how competitive devaluation should be avoided. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI and all industries index are due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly weaker as crude oil returned some of its recent gains and Canada’s reports showed mixed results. Headline retail sales showed a larger than expected 1.0% drop while core retail sales printed a smaller than expected 0.3% dip. Headline CPI rose 0.3% while core CPI showed a stronger than expected 0.2% uptick. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance as it reacted mostly to country-specific events. Data from the US was weaker than expected, as the flash manufacturing PMI slid from 50.8 to 50.5 instead of improving to the projected 51.0 reading, but Fed officials reiterated that 2-3 rate hikes are still possible for the year. Only the US new home sales report is due today and a rise from 511K to 521K is eyed.
EUR
The euro retreated to the lower-yielding currencies when PMI readings came in mixed. The manufacturing sector looked mostly weaker while the services sector posted gains. The German and euro zone ZEW economic sentiment figures are up for release today and the former is expected to rise from 11.2 to 12.1 while the latter could climb from 21.5 to 23.4.
GBP
The pound gave up more of its recent wins when the UK Treasury warned of the repercussions of a Brexit. Still, opinion polls are showing a larger lead in favor of those voting to stay in the EU. BOE Inflation Report hearings are scheduled today but unless there are any major changes to rhetoric, traders could keep taking their cues from Brexit-related updates.
CHF
The franc took advantage of the run in risk aversion yesterday, as traders flocked away from the euro towards the Swiss currency. The Swiss trade balance is due today and a wider surplus of 3.14B CHF from the earlier 2.16B CHF is projected.
JPY
The yen was also a big beneficiary from the risk-off flows, especially since Finance Minister Aso appeared to be in agreement with the rest of the G7 leaders in avoiding competitive FX devaluation. Data from Japan was weaker than expected, though, as the flash manufacturing PMI slid from 48.2 to 47.6 while the all industries index printed a meager 0.1% uptick instead of the estimated 0.7% increase.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were barely able to recover since risk-off flows were seen yesterday. Earlier today, RBA head Stevens emphasized their focus on inflation-targeting, reminding traders that they could lower rates again if necessary. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next and a smaller surplus of 25 million NZD from the earlier 117 million NZD is expected.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar returned some of its recent gains to the higher-yielding currencies when risk appetite improved. Data from the US came in mixed, with the new home sales report showing a rise from 531K to 619K and the Richmond manufacturing index falling from 14 to -1, indicating industry contraction. Only the flash services PMI is due from the US today and a climb from 52.8 to 53.1 is expected.
EUR
The euro tumbled against most of its counterparts when the German ZEW economic sentiment index slipped from 11.2 to 6.4 instead of improving to 12.1. The region’s index fell from 21.5 to 16.8 instead of rising to 23.4. The German Ifo business climate index is due today and a rise from 106.6 to 106.9 is eyed, although another downbeat results could spur more euro losses.
GBP
The pound resumed its climb in recent trading sessions, as anti-Brexit remarks might convince more voters to favor staying in the EU. Opinion polls are still showing a tight race between the “stay” and “leave” votes but BOE Governor Carney did emphasize the repercussions of a Brexit during the BOE Inflation Report hearings. There are no major reports lined up from the UK today.
CHF
The franc gave up ground to most of its rivals when risk appetite returned to the markets. There were no reports out of Switzerland then so the franc was also weighed down by weak euro zone data. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator and ZEW economic expectations index are due today, with improvements likely to help the franc regain ground.
JPY
The yen was off to a strong start in the earlier sessions but soon gave up its lead when risk appetite improved. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy then but rumors of central bank intervention and a delay in the sales tax hike weighed on the currency. There are still no reports due from Japan today, keeping market sentiment in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls got pummeled in earlier sessions but soon recovered against the lower-yielding currencies. RBA Governor Stevens stressed their focus on inflation-targeting, hinting that more rate cuts could be possible. Meanwhile, the API reported a drop in crude oil inventories, driving the commodity price higher. New Zealand’s trade surplus was wider than expected at 292M NZD as exports rose. The BOC decision is up next and no change from the 0.50% benchmark rate is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some of its recent gains when risk appetite improved in recent trading sessions. Data from the US economy was weaker than expected yesterday, as the flash services PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.2 instead of improving to the projected 53.1 figure. US durable goods orders data is due today, with the headline and core figures expected to post 0.3% gains. Initial jobless claims data is also due and a 275K reading is expected.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it recovered to the dollar but lost ground to the yen, pound, and comdolls. Data from the euro zone came in stronger than expected, as the German Ifo business climate index rose from 106.7 to 107.7 versus expectations at 106.9. Only the Italian retail sales report is due today.
GBP
The pound chalked up yet another winning day as the lack of top-tier data left traders focused on Brexit updates. For today, the second GDP estimate is due and no changes from the 0.4% initial figure is eyed. Preliminary business investment data is also due and a 3.2% rebound is eyed.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker against its peers, despite improvements in Swiss data. The UBS consumption indicator climbed from 1.40 to 1.47 while the ZEW economic expectations index rose from 11.5 to 17.5. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen resumed its climb in the late US session and early Asian session but appears to be losing ground again. There are no economic reports lined up from Japan today so risk sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Canadian dollar recovered against its peers when the BOC refrained from cutting interest rates. In fact, the Canadian central bank gave a relatively neutral statement even as the economy is facing plenty of challenges. Earlier today, Australia reported a 5.2% slump in private capital expenditure for the first quarter, reminding traders that another RBA cut could be possible. New Zealand is set to print its annual budget today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar returned some of its recent wins despite stronger than expected economic releases. Headline durable goods orders jumped 3.4% versus the projected 0.3% uptick while core durable goods orders beat expectations with a 0.4% increase. Initial jobless claims and pending home sales also came in better than expected but traders appear to be booking profits ahead of today’s preliminary Q1 GDP reading and Fed Chairperson Yellen’s speech.
EUR
The euro recovered against some of its forex peers bur remained weak against the commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday and none are due today, which suggests that the shared currency could move to the tune of risk sentiment.
GBP
The pound was mostly stronger in the earlier trading sessions but soon retreated on weak data releases. While the second GDP estimate featured no changes, the preliminary business investment report showed a 0.5% drop instead of the estimated 3.2% gain while BBA mortgage approvals fell short of estimates.
CHF
The franc was still stuck in consolidation to the dollar as there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy recently. There are still no reports due today so the franc might simply trail the euro or react to overall market sentiment, regaining ground on a return in risk appetite.
JPY
The yen had another volatile run, as the currency reacted mostly to sentiment and weak inflation data. Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.5% decline in price levels versus the projected 0.4% drop and the previous 0.3% drop. The national core CPI printed a 0.3% decline, slightly better than the projected 0.4% decrease.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of the return in risk appetite to erase some of its recent losses while the Loonie kept capitalizing on the BOC’s decision to keep rates unchanged. However, the higher-yielders returned some of their recent wins when crude oil retreated sharply from the $50/barrel level. In Australia, private capital expenditure slumped 5.2% in the first quarter versus the projected 3.2% decline.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its peers when Fed Chairperson Yellen didn’t sound too cautious in her testimony last Friday. She confirmed that a rate hike would probably be appropriate in the coming months, acknowledging that the US economy continues to recover and that the labor market has made a lot of progress. However, she also cautioned that wage and productivity growth are weak. The US GDP was upgraded from 0.5% to 0.8% as expected but the UoM consumer sentiment index was downgraded from 95.8 to 94.7. US banks are closed for Memorial Day today.
EUR
The euro sold off sharply to the dollar but recovered to the yen on Friday. There were no reports released from the euro zone then while today has German import prices, preliminary CPI, and Spanish flash CPI due, providing traders an idea of how the region’s CPI estimates might turn out.
GBP
The pound retreated to the dollar but scored more gains against its other counterparts. There were no reports out of the UK economy then while banks are closed for the holiday today.
CHF
The franc broke out of its consolidation to the dollar and chalked up losses, as there were no reports to support the Swiss currency on Friday. The Swiss KOF economic barometer is due today and a rise from 102.7 to 102.9 is eyed, likely providing the currency a bit of support.
JPY
The yen gave up ground across the board on Friday, as traders dumped the yen in favor of the safe-haven dollar after Yellen’s testimony. The BOJ core CPI was weaker than expected a 0.9% versus the projected 1.0% reading. Over the weekend, Japan reported a 0.8% decline in April retail sales versus the estimated 1.2% drop. Japanese household spending, industrial production, and jobless rate are due in the next Asian session.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls resumed their declines to the dollar but managed to hold on to their wins against the yen. Earlier today, Australia reported a 4.7% drop in HIA new home sales and a 4.7% decline in quarterly company operating profits. New Zealand building consents data is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar returned some of its recent gains as the absence of US traders on their Memorial Day holiday left the US session as a profit-taking opportunity. There were no reports released from the US economy then while today has the CB consumer confidence and Chicago PMI on tap. The consumer confidence index is slated to rise from 94.2 to 96.1 while the manufacturing index could climb from 50.4 to 50.8.
EUR
The euro chalked up strong gains against the dollar and the yen but retreated to the commodity currencies when risk appetite appeared to improve. Euro zone data came in mostly weaker than expected, with German import prices falling by 0.1% instead of rising by the estimated 0.4% figure and French consumer spending also sliding lower. German retail sales and unemployment change, along with the French preliminary CPI, are up for release today and another batch of weak readings could mean more declines for the shared currency. Euro zone flash CPI estimates are also lined up.
GBP
The pound managed to stay afloat and extend its gains to the dollar, yen, and euro. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday as banks were closed for the holiday and there are still no reports lined up today, allowing traders to react to Brexit polls and price in their expectations for the PMI readings due later on.
CHF
The franc struggled to recover against some of its forex counterparts even as the KOF economic barometer climbed from 102.6 to 102.9 as expected. There are no reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc might take its cue from the euro zone data lined up.
JPY
The yen lost a lot of ground against its peers when more cabinet members confirmed PM Abe’s plans to delay the consumption tax hike from April 2017 to October 2019, putting the government at risk of a credit rating downgrade. Data from Japan was stronger than expected, as household spending fell 0.4% instead of the estimated 1.3% decline while preliminary industrial production rebounded by 0.3%.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie got a strong boost from a 3.0% rebound in building approvals when analysts had been expecting a 3.1% decline. Private sector credit came in line with expectations of a 0.5% increase but the current account deficit was wider than expected. Canadian GDP is due next and a 0.1% contraction for March is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance as it advanced to comdolls and European currencies but lost ground to the yen. Data from the US economy came in mixed, with personal spending beating expectations with its 1.0% gain and personal income coming in line with consensus at 0.4%. The Chicago PMI fell into industry contraction instead of showing an improvement from 50.4 to 50.8 while the CB consumer confidence index also fell short of estimates. US ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 50.8 to 50.5 is eyed.
EUR
The euro had a volatile run as euro zone data came in mixed. German retail sales fell 0.9% instead of showing the projected 1.0% gain but unemployment fell by 11K versus the projected 4K drop. French preliminary CPI beat expectations with a 0.4% increase while euro zone flash CPI estimates came in line with expectations of a 0.1% decline in the headline figure and a 0.8% increase for the core figure. Final manufacturing PMI readings are due from the top euro zone economies today.
GBP
The pound suffered a sharp selloff against its forex rivals when Brexit polls suggested that public opinion was starting to shift in favor of leaving the EU. There were no reports released from the UK economy then while today has the UK manufacturing PMI on tap. A rise from 49.2 to 49.6 is eyed, but traders could pay more attention to Brexit-related updates.
CHF
The franc was able to take advantage of the risk-off vibes in the European markets, as it advanced mostly against the pound. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the quarterly GDP due. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% uptick, slower compared to the earlier 0.4% growth figure.
JPY
The yen regained ground against its peers when risk aversion peeked back in the financial markets. Housing starts data from Japan came in stronger than expected with a 9.0% gain versus the projected 3.9% increase. The final manufacturing PMI is due today and no change from the initially reported 47.6 figure is eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie gave up ground to its peers when the Canadian March GDP missed expectations. The economy contracted 0.2% versus the projected 0.1% decline in growth, bringing the quarterly GDP to 2.4% versus estimates at 2.9%. Chinese official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.1 instead of dropping to 50.0 while the non-manufacturing PMI fell from 53.5 to 53.1. Australian GDP is due next and a 0.6% growth figure is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some ground despite mixed data, as traders focused on the 1.8% slump in construction spending. The Fed’s Beige Book confirmed that most districts saw improvements, underscoring a potentially upbeat FOMC statement later this month. The ISM manufacturing PMI beat expectations as it rose from 50.8 to 51.3 instead of falling to 50.5. The ADP non-farm employment change report is due today and a 174K gain in hiring is eyed.
EUR
The euro regained ground against some of its rivals, possibly as traders booked profits ahead of the ECB statement. Data from the euro zone was also mostly weaker than expected as some final manufacturing PMI readings were downgraded. The ECB statement is lined up today but no actual policy changes are expected, although dovish remarks could extend the shared currency’s slide.
GBP
The pound chalked up yet another losing day as more polls indicated a lead in favor of those voting to exit the EU. Data from the UK was stronger than expected, as the manufacturing PMI rose from 49.4 to 50.1, indicating a return to industry expansion. The construction PMI is due today and a dip from 52.0 to 51.9 is eyed.
CHF
The franc was slightly weaker against most of its peers due to lower than expected Swiss retail sales. The report showed a 1.9% year-over-year drop versus the estimated 0.8% slide. There are no reports due from Switzerland today, leaving the franc sensitive to market sentiment and euro zone events.
JPY
The yen raked in a lot of gains when PM Abe made the official announcement to delay the sales tax hike. This could keep consumer spending and price levels propped up for a few more years but prevent the government from achieving its fiscal targets sooner. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi was one of the strongest performing currencies lately, thanks to a 3.8% increase in the dairy price index in the latest GDT auction. Earlier on, Australia printed a weaker than expected 0.2% uptick in retail sales but also showed a smaller than expected deficit buoyed by a 1% increase in exports. The OPEC meetings are going on today and any decision (or lack thereof) could have a material impact on Loonie action.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was able to take advantage of the run in risk aversion but was still mostly weaker against the yen and Kiwi. Economic data from the US came in better than consensus, as the initial jobless claims landed at 267K versus the projected 270K figure. The US NFP report is due today and a 159K increase in hiring is eyed, lower than the earlier 160K rise. Average hourly earnings could post a 0.2% uptick but a weaker reading could be bearish for the dollar.
EUR
The euro lost ground after the ECB decision even though the central bank did not take policy action. Policymakers upgraded their growth forecast for the year from 1.4% to 1.6% and the HICP from 0.1% to 0.2% but Draghi noted that Q2 growth could be slower than Q1 and that inflation could remain low for the coming months. Final services PMI readings are due from the top euro zone economies today.
GBP
The pound regained a bit of ground against its peers despite weaker than expected UK construction PMI. The index fell from 52.0 to 51.2, lower than the estimated 51.9 reading. For today, the services PMI is due and a rise from 52.3 to 52.5 is eyed, although traders could still focus on Brexit updates.
CHF
The franc was stuck in consolidation since there were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday. There are still no major reports lined up from the Swiss economy today so the franc could keep moving sideways or take its cue from market sentiment.
JPY
The yen raked in more gains after Prime Minister Abe recently confirmed the sales tax hike delay. Average cash earnings in Japan rose 0.3%, lower than the estimated 0.9% gain. No other reports are due from Japan today, keeping the yen sensitive to market sentiment.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie and the Loonie were mostly weaker while the Kiwi was able to hold on to its gains. The OPEC failed to come up with an agreement to cap production levels but the meeting seemed relatively positive, as the nations committed to work together in stabilizing the market. No other reports are up for release from the comdoll economies for the rest of the week.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was sold off sharply on Friday when the NFP report printed a mere 38K increase in hiring versus the estimated 159K gain. In addition, the previous reading was downgraded from 160K to 123K while the ISM non-manufacturing PMI showed a sharper drop to 55.7 to 52.9. The US labor market conditions index is due today but traders could pay closer attention to Fed Chairperson Yellen’s speech.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar and pound weakness but was barely able to hold on to its gains against its other rivals. Euro zone final services PMI came in mostly weaker than expected while the region’s retail sales showed a flat reading. German factory orders data is due today and a 0.4% decline is eyed while Brexit-related updates are also affecting euro price action.
GBP
The pound was the biggest loser in recent sessions as more Brexit polls showed a lead in favor of those voting to leave the EU. In addition, remarks from pro- Brexit leaders on immigration and security appear to be yielding more “leave” votes. UK services PMI was stronger than expected at 53.5 versus the 52.5 estimate. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc advanced against the dollar and its European counterparts thanks to the surge in risk aversion in the region. There were no reports from Switzerland then and none are due today.
JPY
The yen was one of the biggest winners on Friday as the drop in dollar demand led traders to flock to the yen. Japanese average cash earnings was actually weaker than expected with a mere 0.3% uptick. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to rally against the dollar but still gave up ground to the yen. Canada’s trade deficit was wider than expected at 2.9 billion CAD versus the estimated 2.5 billion CAD shortfall. In Australia, the MI inflation gauge fell by 0.2% while ANZ job advertisements rebounded by 2.4%. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar barely showed any directional moves yesterday as traders didn’t seem to be buying the upgrades in non-farm productivity and unit labor costs. The former was upgraded from a 1.0% decline to just a 0.6% drop while the latter was revised from 4.1% to 4.5% to reflect stronger upside wage pressure. Only the JOLTS job openings and crude oil inventories are due from the US today.
EUR
The euro was stuck in consolidation to the dollar but it gave up ground to the commodity currencies and pound. Euro zone GDP was upgraded from 0.5% to 0.6%, allowing the currency to advance against the yen. There are no major reports due from the region today.
GBP
The pound had a volatile run, as it spiked up against its counterparts during the late Asian session but retreated just as quickly. Halifax HPI showed a stronger than expected 0.6% gain but the rally was likely caused by some poll results showing a lead in favor of the “stay” vote. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a flat reading is eyed.
CHF
The franc carried on with its rally against the US dollar despite the increase in foreign currency reserves of the SNB. Swiss CPI is due today and a 0.2% uptick in price levels is eyed to follow the previous 0.3% gain.
JPY
The yen returned some of its recent wins earlier in the day as traders banked on risk appetite. Data from Japan came in mostly in line with expectations today, with the exception of the current account balance which saw a smaller surplus. The Economy Watchers Sentiment index is up for release next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the strongest in the pack yesterday, thanks to rising oil prices. The Loonie even shrugged off the Ivey PMI decline from 53.1 to 49.4 as WTI crude oil climbed above the $50/barrel level. Chinese trade balance numbers are due next, likely affecting Aussie and Kiwi price action ahead of the RBNZ rate statement.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar lost further ground to its peers as risk appetite was present in the financial markets. Data from the US was stronger than expected, as the JOLTS job openings rose from 5.67M to 5.79M to indicate improved hiring momentum. Only the initial jobless claims report is lined up for today and a 269K reading is eyed.
EUR
The euro managed to regain its footing even though there were no major reports out of the euro zone, allowing the shared currency to benefit from funds moving out of the UK economy. French non-farm payrolls and German trade balance numbers are up for release next but traders could pay closer attention to ECB head Draghi’s testimony.
GBP
The pound was once again sold off when a few polls indicated a lead in favor of those voting to exit the EU. Data from the UK was actually stronger than expected with manufacturing production up 2.3% versus the projected flat reading. There are no major reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was able to extend its gains to the dollar and other European currencies but was mostly weaker against the comdolls. Swiss CPI came in below expectations with a 0.1% uptick in price levels versus the projected 0.2% increase. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and no change from the 3.5% reading is eyed.
JPY
The yen was mostly weaker due to risk-taking but managed to regain ground in the Asian trading session. Data from Japan was weaker than expected as core machinery orders slipped by 11.0% while the lower than expected Chinese CPI also brought risk aversion back.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi got a strong boost from the RBNZ decision when the central bank refrained from cutting interest rates while the Loonie got a boost from a reduction in US oil inventories. However, the Aussie was slightly weaker when the Chinese CPI landed at 2.0% versus the projected 2.3% reading. PPI came in better than expected at -2.8% versus the estimated -3.1% reading.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its rivals as risk aversion appeared to return in the financial markets. Data from the US was mixed, with better than expected initial jobless claims and weaker than expected wholesale inventories. Only the US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index is due today and a drop from 94.7 to 94.1 is expected.
EUR
The euro retreated against the dollar and the yen despite stronger than expected data from its top economies. French non-farm payrolls rose 0.3% while the German trade balance showed a larger surplus of 24.0 billion EUR. German final CPI and French industrial production data are up for release today.
GBP
The pound managed to limit its losses in recent sessions thanks to some surveys showing a slight lead in favor of those voting to stay in the EU. UK goods trade balance also showed stronger than expected results. Construction output data and inflation expectations are up for release today and another batch of strong readings could keep the pound afloat.
CHF
The franc returned some of its recent wins to the dollar even as the Swiss jobless rate came in line with expectations at 3.5%. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be driven mostly by sentiment.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the risk-off moves to advance against its higher-yielding counterparts. Data from Japan was weaker than expected as core machinery orders slumped 11.0% versus the projected 3.2% drop. Japanese tertiary industry activity data is due today and a 0.7% rebound is eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave back most of their recent wins when risk-off vibes returned. China reported a drop in its annual CPI from 2.3% to 2.0% but the PPI came in stronger than expected. In Canada, BOC Governor Poloz highlighted the pickup in the oil industry but cautioned that housing inflation could pose risks. Canada’s jobs report is due next and a 3.1K increase is eyed, enough to keep the jobless rate unchanged at 7.1%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground on Friday, thanks to US data coming in line with expectations. The UoM consumer sentiment index fell from 94.7 to 94.3, slightly higher than the estimated 94.1 figure, while the UoM inflation expectations reading was unchanged at 2.4%. There are no major reports due from the US economy today, leaving traders to price in expectations for the retail sales figures lined up tomorrow and the FOMC statement midweek.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it weakened to the dollar and yen but advanced to the pound. Data from the euro zone, namely French industrial production and German WPI, came in mostly stronger than expected on Friday but traders are hesitating to buy the shared currency ahead of the EU referendum later this month. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound was still one of the weakest performing currencies as traders continued to act on jitters ahead of the Brexit vote. Polls are still showing shifting leads in favor of either the “stay” or “leave” camps so it’s too close to call. UK construction output and inflation expectations both printed upbeat results on Friday and the CB leading index is due today.
CHF
The franc was weaker against the dollar but it continued to rake in gains against its European rivals. There were no reports out of Switzerland on Friday and none are due today, keeping the franc sensitive to market sentiment.
JPY
The yen was off to a strong start this week as risk aversion kicked into high gear. Japan’s tertiary industry activity showed a 1.4% gain on Friday, twice as much as the 0.7% forecast. Over the weekend, Japan’s BSI manufacturing index printed a weaker than expected -11.1 reading and the revised industrial production report is due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up ground on Friday, as traders likely booked profits ahead of the weekend. Jobs data from Canada was stronger than expected as hiring rose 13.8K versus the projected 3.1K increase. Over the weekend, Chinese data printed downbeat results with industrial production down from 6.1% to 6.0% and fixed asset investment slumping from 10.5% to 9.6%. Retail sales came close to consensus at 10.0%, down from the earlier 10.1% reading.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was mostly weaker against its peers in recent trading sessions as market watchers probably booked profits ahead of this week’s FOMC statement. There were no reports released from the US economy yesterday while today has the retail sales reports due. Analysts are expecting to see 0.4% gains for both headline and core figures, although the downbeat jobs figures for the same month probably weighed on spending.
EUR
The euro rebounded against some of its counterparts even though there were no reports released from the region. For today, the euro zone employment change and industrial production numbers are due. Employment likely rose 0.2% in the first quarter while industrial production is projected to have rebounded by 0.7%.
GBP
The pound suffered another round of weakness when the latest Brexit surveys showed a lead in favor of those voting to exit the EU. The UK CB leading index stayed flat while today has the CPI readings on tap. Headline CPI could rise to 0.4% while core CPI might climb to 1.3% but traders are likely to pay closer attention to Brexit-related updates.
CHF
The franc was able to take advantage of dollar weakness and the risk-off flows in the European region. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the PPI on tap. Producer prices might post a 0.1% uptick, slower than the previous 0.3% gain.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the run in risk aversion yesterday, as traders seemed to have a stronger preference for the Japanese currency against the dollar. Japan’s industrial production figure was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.5%, higher than the forecast at 0.4%.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls returned some of their recent wins as risk aversion returned to the financial markets. Data from China was mostly weaker than expected, as fixed asset investment and retail sales fell. In Australia, the NAB business confidence index fell from 5 to 3 to show weaker optimism. No other reports are lined up from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
Dollar pairs were mostly stuck in consolidation yesterday as traders hesitated to take huge positions ahead of the FOMC statement. Headline retail sales rose 0.5% versus the 0.4% consensus while core retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.4% gain. Import prices posted a stronger than expected 1.4% increase while business inventories were lower. No actual rate changes are expected from the Fed today but a reiteration of their hawkish bias could revive dollar strength.
EUR
The euro was stuck in consolidation to the dollar but was weaker against its other counterparts. Data from the euro zone was actually stronger than expected, with quarterly employment up 0.3% versus the 0.2% consensus and industrial production up by 1.1%. Only the euro zone trade balance is lined up today.
GBP
The pound continued to reel from Brexit updates, as another poll showed a lead in favor of those voting to exit. UK CPI was also weaker than expected, as both headline and core figures didn’t budge. The UK jobs report is due today and a 0.1K drop in claimants is eyed while the average earnings index could slide from 2.0% to 1.7%.
CHF
The franc was able to benefit from the risk-off moves in the forex market and the stronger than expected Swiss PPI. Producer prices rose 0.4% versus the projected 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen continued to rake in gains on risk aversion and also got a boost from a positive revision in Japan’s industrial production figure. The reading was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.5%, higher than the estimated 0.4% reading. There are no reports due from Japan today, keeping risk sentiment in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls had a mixed performance as they lost ground to the yen but advanced against the euro and pound. Data from Australia has indicated weakness, as the NAB business confidence index fell from 5 to 3 while the Westpac consumer sentiment reading showed a 1.0% decline. New Zealand’s current account balance showed a wider than expected surplus of 1.31 billion NZD. Canadian manufacturing sales and the New Zealand GDT auction are lined up next, along with the New Zealand GDP for Q1.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up ground to its forex peers when the Fed refrained from hiking interest rates in their latest policy decision. FOMC members also lowered growth forecasts for this year and the next, acknowledging the recent slowdown in employment, but upgraded their inflation forecasts to account for higher commodity prices this year. The Empire State index and PPI beat expectations while industrial production and capacity utilization fell short. US CPI, Philly Fed index, current account balance, and initial jobless claims are up for release today.
EUR
The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness but was no match to yen strength. Medium-tier data from the euro zone came in line with expectations but the shared currency was driven by Brexit jitters weighing on European markets as a whole. Euro zone final CPI readings are up for release today.
GBP
The pound continued to chalk up losses against its peers as traders priced in the possibility of a Brexit. Jobs data from the UK was actually stronger than expected, as claimants fell 0.4K versus the projected 0.1K drop while the average earnings index held steady at 2.0% instead of falling to the estimated 1.7% figure. The BOE decision is lined up today along with the UK retail sales release.
CHF
The franc continued to take advantage of weakness in the European currencies and was also able to advance against the US dollar. Additional volatility is expected for franc pairs today as the SNB is set to make its policy decision. No actual changes are expected but the Swiss central bank might have some comments on the upcoming EU referendum.
JPY
The yen rallied after the BOJ decided to keep policy unchanged once more. The lower-yielding Japanese currency has also been the beneficiary of safe-haven flows leading up to the EU referendum but additional volatility could be seen during the BOJ press conference later today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness but still caved to yen strength. In Australia, hiring was up by 17.9K versus the estimated 14.9K gain while the unemployment rate stood at 5.7% as expected. Dairy prices stayed flat in the latest NZ GDT auction but the country’s GDP beat expectations with a 0.7% expansion versus the estimated 0.5% growth figure for Q1.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite appeared to return in the markets. Data from the US came in mixed, with the Philly Fed index showing a stronger than expected return to expansion and the initial jobless claims printing a larger than expected increase. Headline CPI fell to 0.2%, lower than the projected 0.3% figure, while core CPI was unchanged at 0.2% as expected. US building permits and housing starts are due today.
EUR
The euro regained ground against most of its counterparts, except for the British pound. Data from the euro zone came in line with expectations as the final CPI readings for the region were unchanged. The shared currency got a boost from rumors that the EU referendum might be postponed following the shooting of an MP in the UK, which has prompted PM Cameron to suspend Brexit campaigning temporarily. The Italian trade balance and euro zone current account balance are up for release.
GBP
The pound staged a strong rally when PM Cameron suspended Brexit campaigning today until the weekend, following the death of MP Jo Cox after she was attacked yesterday. UK retail sales beat expectations with a 0.9% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick while the BOE kept interest rates unchanged as expected. There are no reports due from the UK economy today, leaving the pound sensitive to Brexit updates.
CHF
The franc gave up ground to its peers when European traders speculated that the Brexit vote might be pushed back or that the shooting of UK MP Jo Cox might convince voters to favor staying in the EU. The SNB kept interest rates unchanged as expected while noting that they continue to watch FX levels closely.
JPY
The yen had a strong rally earlier in the day as risk aversion was present but soon gave up its gains when risk-on moves returned. The BOJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected and refrained from strongly jawboning the yen, although other government authorities have been more vocal. There are no reports due from the Japanese economy today, which means that market sentiment could push yen pairs around once more.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of the risk rallies to advance against the dollar and yen. Australia’s jobs report beat expectations with a 17.9K gain in hiring versus the projected 14.9K increase. Canada’s CPI reports are up for release, with the headline figure likely to post a 0.5% gain and the core figure expected to show a 0.3% increase.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up ground to its counterparts and gapped down over the weekend as risk appetite appeared to pick up. Data from the US economy came in line with expectations on Friday and there are no major reports up for release today, keeping sentiment as the main driver of price action.
EUR
The euro recovered against most of its peers on Friday, even though data from the region came in mixed. For now, it appears that sentiment surrounding the EU referendum are driving euro pairs, with the latest polls suggesting that the “stay” camp won’t go down without a fight. German PPI data is due today and a 0.4% increase in producer prices is eyed.
GBP
The pound posted some gains on Friday as traders likely booked profits off their shorts to avoid weekend risk. Over the weekend, the Rightmove HPI showed a 0.8% gain in house prices while some polls suggested a larger margin in favor of staying in the EU. There are no reports due from the UK today, leaving traders to price in expectations for the EU referendum on Thursday.
CHF
The franc returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite seemed to improve and traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today, which suggests that sentiment could push franc pairs around.
JPY
The yen lost a lot of ground since Friday when intervention rumors started popping up. Japanese government officials have been busy jawboning the currency after its strong rallies last week, likely prompting traders to lighten up their positions. Over the weekend, the Japanese trade balance showed a larger surplus of 0.27T JPY.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls posted gains on Friday thanks to a return in risk-taking. Data from Canada was mixed as the core CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.3% gain and the headline figure fell short with a 0.4% uptick versus the estimated 0.5% increase. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a drop in its Westpac consumer sentiment index from 109.6 to 106.0. Only the Canadian wholesale sales report is due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way