USD
The US dollar was mostly weaker against its rivals as risk appetite stayed in the markets for the most part of the day. There were no reports out of the US economy, leaving traders to react to risk sentiment. Fed head Yellen has a speech scheduled today and her remarks could set the tone for dollar price action.
EUR
The euro advanced against the dollar but was weaker to the pound. Data from Germany came in line with expectations as producer prices showed a 0.4% increase as expected. The German constitutional court ruling is scheduled today and their ruling on the ECB OMT could also have a significant impact on the euro. German ZEW economic sentiment data and a speech by Governor Draghi are also on the docket.
GBP
The pound was able to keep up with its climb as a couple more Brexit surveys showed a lead in favor of those voting to stay in the EU. Today has the public sector borrowing figure and the CBI industrial order expectations data on tap, although traders could pay closer attention to Brexit surveys.
CHF
The franc was stuck in consolidation to the dollar and was mostly weaker against the euro, even though there were no reports out of the Swiss economy. Today has the Swiss trade balance due and a larger surplus of 2.88B CHF is eyed.
JPY
The yen was on stronger footing towards the end of the US session as traders likely booked profits off their recent shorts. Yen intervention rumors appear to have subsided, allowing traders to prop up the yen in times of risk aversion. There were no hints of actual central bank intervention in the BOJ minutes as well. The Japanese all industries activity index is due today and a 1.3% gain is eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls continued to bank on risk appetite yesterday but were no match to yen strength. Earlier today, the RBA minutes didn’t show any clues of when the central bank might cut interest rates again, allowing the Aussie to stay afloat. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day so risk sentiment could push these currencies around.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its peers despite mixed remarks from Fed Chairperson Yellen. She reiterated the need for a cautious approach in tightening, citing that policymakers will keep close tabs on jobs data to see if the slowdown was just transitory. She also added that the Fed has legal basis to implement negative rates if needed but downplayed the risk of a recession. US existing home sales data and another speech by Fed head Yellen are lined up today.
EUR
The euro suffered a sharp selloff after Draghi’s testimony because the ECB head mentioned that “further stimulus is in the pipeline.” Market watchers had been expecting him to reiterate that they’re ready to use their monetary policy tools in the event of a Brexit but were surprised to see stronger dovish hints. Data from the region was stronger than expected, as the German ZEW economic sentiment index rose from 6.4 to 19.2 instead of falling to the projected 5.1 reading. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound managed to hold on to some of its recent gains as more polls suggested a small lead in favor of staying in the EU. Brexit surveys and the BBC debates could continue to influence pound price action leading up to the referendum. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc consolidated to the dollar but was able to advance against the euro. Swiss trade balance beat expectations with a 3.79 billion CHF surplus versus the projected 2.88 billion CHF surplus. Swiss ZEW economic expectations are up for release today.
JPY
The yen managed to regain some ground during the latter trading sessions, as traders probably booked profits off their recent trades. Japan’s all industries activity index came in line with expectations of a 1.3% gain. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave back some of their recent wins when ECB head Draghi’s speech inspired risk aversion. RBA minutes were less dovish than expected. There are no major reports lined up from the comdoll economies today, which means that risk sentiment could push these currencies around.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up more ground in recent trading sessions as risk appetite appeared to improve. Data from the US came in line with expectations as existing home sales were up 5.53 million. Fed head Yellen didn’t have much to add to her remarks from the previous day but she did clarify that the Fed has no emergency meeting scheduled after the EU referendum. US initial jobless claims and new home sales are due today.
EUR
The euro continued to advance against most of its peers, except for the British pound, as traders are likely lightening up on their short holdings ahead of the EU referendum. Data from the euro zone came in line with expectations yesterday as the consumer confidence index held steady at -7. Euro zone PMI readings are up for release today and small declines are eyed.
GBP
The pound is facing its much-anticipated Brexit vote starting in today’s London session, leading up to tomorrow’s Asian session before the official results will be announced. Expect additional volatility around these times as traders price in expectations, with a Brexit likely to mean sharp losses and a vote to remain likely to trigger a relief rally.
CHF
The franc chalked up small gains to the dollar but was weaker to the European currencies as traders might be bracing themselves for potential SNB intervention if the UK exits the EU. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today.
JPY
The yen lost further ground when risk-taking was in play, with some Brexit polls still showing a small lead in favor of UK voters who want to stay in the EU. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI showed a small improvement from 47.7 to 47.8, lower than the projected climb to 48.2.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Canadian retail sales report came in stronger than expected, with the headline figure up 0.9% and the core figure up 1.3%. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today, which suggests that risk sentiment and the outcome of the Brexit vote would play a huge role in price action.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar scored strong gains on the heels of the EU referendum and better than expected US economic data. Both the initial jobless claims and flash manufacturing PMI beat expectations while new home sales fell short. Durable goods orders data are due today and the headline figure could post a 0.5% drop while the core figure could print a 0.1% increase. Still, risk sentiment might be the bigger driver of price action for dollar pairs for the rest of the week.
EUR
The euro suffered sharp declines as the EU referendum results appear to be hinting at a victory for the “leave” camp. This could bring a significant amount of uncertainty to the entire region, perhaps even convincing the ECB to ease monetary policy. Euro zone flash PMI readings came in mostly weaker than expected, signaling that the region is already on shaky footing ahead of a potential Brexit. German Ifo business climate data and the Italian retail sales report are due today.
GBP
The pound had a volatile time during the start of polling in the UK, as some surveys suggested a victory for the “remain” camp but early results from regions showed a lead by the “leave” camp. The gap has been growing in favor of leaving the EU as of this writing, leading to sharp declines for the UK currency in anticipation of increased uncertainty and a potential economic recession.
CHF
The franc has been advancing against most of its forex counterparts and acting as a safe-haven in the European region. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today, keeping risk sentiment as the main driver of price action.
JPY
The yen was able to take advantage of the run in risk aversion during the EU referendum, as the Japanese currency acted as a safe-haven particularly for Asian markets which are seeing the first few results. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls have been dropping on account of risk-off vibes in the financial markets, as a Brexit appears possible. Exiting the EU could mean negative economic repercussions not just for the UK but for the rest of the global economy, weighing on appetite for commodities. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today so it could be all about risk sentiment.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar drew a lot of support on Friday after the EU referendum results were announced, as the Brexit inspired risk-off moves. Data from the US economy was actually weaker than expected then, with durable goods orders falling short of expectations and the UoM consumer sentiment index suffering a downgrade. The US flash services PMI is due today but traders are likely to be more sensitive to market sentiment.
EUR
The euro suffered a sharp decline on Friday as the Brexit would also have negative repercussions on the euro zone economy. The German Ifo business climate index beat expectations by rising to 107.8 to 108.7 instead of dropping to the estimated 107.6 figure. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today but ECB head Draghi has a speech lined up and any hints of additional stimulus would mean more euro weakness.
GBP
The pound was the biggest loser on Friday after the Brexit was announced but it managed to recoup some of its losses as profit-taking took place. UK BBA mortgage approvals printed stronger than expected results but traders shrugged this off and focused on post-Brexit updates, such as UK Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation. Moving forward, the negotiations between the EU and the UK should be under the spotlight and have a strong impact on pound action.
CHF
The franc scored plenty of wins against its higher-yielding counterparts but gave most of these up when the SNB intervened in the markets and admitted to doing so. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today but traders might be hesitant to buy up the franc in anticipation of further intervention efforts from the central bank.
JPY
The yen was a big winner during the Brexit announcement on Friday but also returned some of its wins when BOJ intervention speculations popped up. Recall that finance officials have been threatening to step in if the yen rallies to sharply and strongly, which was exactly what happened last week. There are no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment should stay in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls chalked up huge losses when risk aversion dawned after the EU referendum results were announced on Friday. Over the weekend, New Zealand printed a stronger than expected trade surplus of 358 million NZD, giving a bit of support for the Kiwi, while the Aussie is getting a boost from stronger gold prices. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gapped up against most of its counterparts on Monday as risk aversion kicked into high gear. However, a lot of consolidation was seen for most dollar pairs as market participants waited for more clues. Data from the US economy was weaker than expected, with both the flash services PMI and goods trade balance missing expectations. The US final GDP reading for Q1 is due today and an upgrade from 0.8% to 1.0% is expected.
EUR
The euro trailed the pound in sliding against its forex rivals, as a slowdown in the UK would also have repercussions on the euro zone economy. The EU Economic Summit is scheduled today but ECB head Draghi and Fed Chairperson Yellen won’t be attending.
GBP
The pound resumed its slide across the board after Fitch and S&P announced downgrades to the UK credit rating, citing uncertainties from the Brexit and potential declines in trade, investment, public finances, and political continuity. UK CBI realized sales data is due today but traders are likely to focus on Brexit-related updates.
CHF
The franc was also in a weak spot following the SNB’s decision to step in the currency markets. Although the franc is usually treated as a safe-haven in the European region, traders are hesitant to buy up the Swiss currency in anticipation of additional SNB intervention.
JPY
The yen sprang back to life in the latter trading sessions as risk aversion continued to dominate price action. There were no reports out of Japan recently and none are due today, although talks of intervention and stimulus could also prevent the yen from rallying further.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up ground on risk aversion but managed to limit their losses thanks to rising gold and silver prices. There were no reports out of the comdoll economies yesterday and none are due today, keeping risk sentiment as the main driver of price action.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained a bit of ground in the past few hours as the recovery in risk appetite failed to gain much traction. The final US GDP reading for the first quarter of the year was upgraded from 0.8% to 1.1%, higher than the forecast at 1.0%. Meanwhile, US CB consumer confidence rose higher than expected but the Richmond manufacturing index showed a steeper contraction. Core PCE price index, personal spending and income, and pending home sales are due today.
EUR
The euro had a bit of a rebound in recent sessions but soon returned its intraday wins. German import prices showed a stronger than expected 0.9% gain but remarks from EU officials during their Economic Summit suggested that they’re also worried about the region’s future as well. German GfK consumer climate and preliminary CPI are due today, along with the Spanish flash CPI.
GBP
The pound tried to fill in the gaps over the weekend but failed as risk aversion returned. UK CBI realized sales fell from 7 to 4 instead of improving to the estimated 9 reading. UK Nationwide HPI, net lending to individuals, and mortgage approvals are due today but updates from UK officials could play a greater role in price action.
CHF
The franc continued to advance as traders shifted their biases after the SNB admitted to intervening in the currency markets recently. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday but a central bank official defended their recent moves.
JPY
The yen consolidated against most of its peers as Japanese officials continued to discuss the possibility of additional stimulus. Earlier today, Japan’s retail sales report printed weaker than expected results. Consumer spending fell 1.9% year-over-year versus the estimated 1.6% drop.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie got a bit of a boost from stronger crude oil prices while the Aussie and Kiwi trailed behind. There were no major reports from these economies as the currencies took their cue from risk sentiment. Only the Australian HIA new home sales data is due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up some ground but managed to pare some of its losses as risk appetite stayed in the markets. Data from the US came in line with expectations, as the core PCE price index was up 0.2% as expected while personal spending rose 0.4% even as personal income was slightly weaker than expected at 0.2% versus the consensus at 0.3%. Initial jobless claims and Chicago PMI are up for release today.
EUR
The euro was able to extend its rallies against most of its peers as traders continued to bank on smooth negotiations between the EU and the UK. German preliminary CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick while Spanish flash CPI was stronger than expected with a 0.8% decline versus the projected 1.0% drop. Euro zone flash CPI estimates are due today and these should also provide guidance on whether the ECB might dole out more stimulus or not.
GBP
The pound had another winning day, thanks to strong UK data and hopes that the government can negotiate a good post-Brexit trade agreement. Net lending to individuals rose to 4.3 billion GBP and mortgage approvals came in at 67K versus the 65K consensus. UK current account balance and final GDP data is due today.
CHF
The franc continued to tread carefully as traders have been wary of additional SNB intervention. The Swiss UBS consumption indicator showed a gain from 1.24 to 1.35. Today has the KOF economic barometer on tap and a dip from 102.9 to 102.7 is expected.
JPY
The yen returned some of its recent wins as risk appetite was in play. To top it off, Japanese retail sales came in weaker than expected with a 1.9% decline versus the projected 1.6% drop. Japanese preliminary industrial production data is due today and a 0.1% dip is eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was another strong performer yesterday, lifted by a larger than expected reduction in stockpiles. US crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels, larger than the estimated reduction of 2.3 million barrels. In Australia, HIA new home sales dropped by 4.4%. New Zealand building consents and ANZ business confidence figures are lined up, along with Australian private sector credit data. Later on Canada will print its monthly GDP and a 0.1% expansion is expected.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained a bit of ground in the latter part of the US session as data came in mostly stronger than expected. Initial jobless claims landed at 268K while the Chicago PMI showed a return to industry expansion. The reading jumped from 49.3 to 56.8, outpacing the estimate at 50.3. Up ahead, the ISM manufacturing PMI is due and no change from the 51.3 previous reading is eyed.
EUR
The euro managed to hold on to some of its gains when the flash CPI readings beat expectations. Headline CPI came in at 0.1% instead of staying flat while core CPI came in at 0.9% versus the 0.8% consensus. The German unemployment change showed a 6K reduction in joblessness, slightly higher than the projected 5K drop. For today, final manufacturing PMI readings from the top euro zone economies are lined up.
GBP
The pound suffered a sharp drop when BOE Governor Carney confirmed that further easing is on the horizon. In his testimony, he mentioned that additional stimulus is likely in summer and that they’re considering other easing options. The UK current account balance showed a larger than expected deficit while the final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.4%. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a drop from 50.1 to 50.0 is expected.
CHF
The franc crawled slightly higher against its forex counterparts despite weaker than expected data from Switzerland. The KOF economic barometer reading rose from 101.8 to 102.4, lower than the projected 102.7 figure but still a again nonetheless. Swiss retail sales data is due today and an improvement from -1.9% to -1.7% is eyed.
JPY
The yen continued to give up ground to its forex peers as the threat of intervention weighed on the currency’s gains. Earlier today, Japanese data came in mostly in line with expectations, with the household spending report coming in stronger than expected. The Tokyo core CPI showed a 0.5% drop in price levels and the national core CPI showed a 0.4% decline. Final manufacturing PMI and consumer confidence data are still due.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls managed to hold on to most of their wins, buoyed by positive data and rising commodity prices. The Canadian economy expanded by 0.1% in April as expected while underlying inflation reports showed strong gains. Chinese manufacturing PMI readings are due today and strong data could continue to keep risk appetite up, lifting comdolls even higher.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was mostly weaker than expected last Friday despite stronger than expected ISM manufacturing PMI data. The reading jumped from 51.3 to 53.2 instead of holding steady, indicating a much faster pace of industry growth. However, construction spending and ISM manufacturing prices came in much weaker than expected. US banks are closed for the Fourth of July holiday today.
EUR
The euro was stuck in consolidation on Friday despite mostly stronger than expected medium-tier data. Manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies either beat expectations or were revised higher while the Italian unemployment rate also came in better than expected. The Spanish unemployment change report and euro zone Sentix investor confidence data are due today.
GBP
The pound was still weaker against most of its forex peers even though the UK manufacturing PMI beat expectations. The index rose from 50.4 to 52.1 to show a faster pace of industry growth but traders seemed to shrug this off as they continued pricing in expectations for additional BOE easing. UK construction PMI is due today and a drop from 51.2 to 50.6 is expected.
CHF
The franc was unable to establish a clear trading direction even while the Swiss retail sales report came in slightly better than expected. Consumer spending was down 1.6% year-over-year compared to the estimated 1.7% decline and the previous 2.2% slump. There are no reports due from Switzerland today.
JPY
The yen barely budged on Friday as most of the Japanese economic reports came in line with consensus. The Tankan manufacturing index was unchanged at 6 instead of dropping to the projected reading of 4 while the non-manufacturing component dropped from 22 to 19 as expected. Consumer confidence improved from 40.9 to 41.8. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls held on to their gains as commodity prices stayed supported. Data from China came in mostly in line with consensus, except for the Caixin manufacturing PMI which dropped from 49.2 to 48.6. Earlier today Australia reported a 5.2% drop in building approvals. No other major reports are due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was stuck in consolidation against most of its forex counterparts since US banks were closed for the Fourth of July holiday. US factory orders data are up for release today and a 0.8% decline is eyed, following the previous 1.9% increase. FOMC member Dudley also has a speech lined up.
EUR
The euro struggled to hold on to its gains after data from the region came in mixed. The Spanish unemployment change report showed a stronger than expected 124.3K reduction in joblessness while the euro zone Sentix investor confidence figure slumped from 9.9 to 1.7, worse than the estimated drop to 8.1. Final services PMI readings are due today along with the euro zone retail sales report.
GBP
The pound consolidated against its rivals as traders continued to wait for more updates from the UK. The construction PMI came in weaker than expected as it fell from 51.2 to 46.0, reflecting industry contraction. For today, the services PMI is due and a dip from 53.5 to 53.1 is eyed. BOE Governor Carney also has a speech scheduled.
CHF
The franc barely made any headway as traders are being careful of additional SNB intervention. There were no reports out of Switzerland then and none are due today so risk sentiment could push franc pairs around.
JPY
The yen gave up more ground on improving risk appetite as there were no reports out of Japan yesterday. There are still no reports lined up today so risk sentiment could stay in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls continued to advance led by the Loonie, even though data from Canada came in weaker than expected. The quarterly BOC Business Outlook Survey was also mostly downbeat, although it suggested a potential rebound in services and non-energy firms. In Australia, retail sales and trade balance figures missed expectations with a meager 0.2% uptick in consumer spending and a wider trade deficit of 2.22 million AUD. New Zealand has its GDT auction scheduled in the next Asian session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was a big winner in yesterday’s London and US sessions thanks to the run in risk aversion. Data from the US economy was actually weaker than expected, with factory orders down 1.0% versus the projected 0.8% drop, but traders preferred the safe-haven dollar over higher-yielding assets and currencies. The FOMC minutes are up for release today so more volatility is expected for dollar pairs.
EUR
The euro struggled to hold on to its gains and failed as risk-off vibes returned to the markets. Data from the euro zone was mostly better than expected while retail sales came in line with expectations of a 0.4% gain. ECB Governor Draghi is set to give a testimony today and might confirm that further easing will be put in place, although the lack of dovish remarks could prop up the shared currency.
GBP
The pound dropped to fresh record lows against the dollar on reports that three of the UK’s top property funds are refusing withdrawal requests from investors. This comes after property speculators started liquidating their holdings as prices tanked after the Brexit decision. Fears of contagion and more financial stress are weighing on the pound, as well as the downbeat UK services PMI, even after BOE Governor Carney tried to reassure the markets in his presser after the release of their Financial Stability Report.
CHF
The franc weakened against its forex peers thanks to contagion fears in Europe and the lingering intervention threat from the SNB. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so risk sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.
JPY
The yen took advantage of the risk-off moves in the financial markets, even advancing against the US dollar. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so risk sentiment could play a rose in yen price action, as well as fears of intervention from the BOJ or Japanese government.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls returned their recent gains as risk-off vibes were back in the markets, weighing on commodity prices as well. Retail sales and trade balance figures from Australia missed expectations but the Aussie drew a bit of support from the RBA’s decision to keep rates unchanged. In New Zealand, dairy prices were down 0.4% in the recent GDT auction. Canada has its trade balance due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar returned some of its recent gains despite mixed data from the US. The trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit of $41.1 billion but the ISM non-manufacturing PMI showed a strong jump from 52.9 to 56.5. The FOMC minutes contained no surprises but it did reveal that policymakers shifted to a neutral stance even before the EU referendum. The ADP non-farm employment change report and Challenger job cuts data are due today, giving hints on how the NFP might turn out.
EUR
The euro advanced to some of its peers when ECB head Draghi refrained from making any additional dovish remarks. Still, German factory orders missed expectations and printed a flat reading instead of the projected 1.0% gain. For today, German industrial production and French trade balance are lined up. ECB minutes are also up for release.
GBP
The pound consolidated against the dollar and yen but was weaker to the comdolls as there were no major updates from the UK economy. More property funds are refusing client withdrawals, fueling speculations that additional financial stress could be seen. UK manufacturing production data is due today and a 1.2% drop is expected.
CHF
The franc was still stuck in consolidation as traders refrained from trading this currency for fear of additional SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has Swiss CPI and foreign currency reserves data on tap.
JPY
The yen returned some of its recent wins when risk appetite somewhat improved. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday while today has a speech by Governor Kuroda. Risk sentiment could continue pushing yen pairs around as well.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Comdolls regained ground in the latter trading sessions as risk appetite improved. Data from Canada was weaker than expected as the trade deficit widened in May and was downgraded in the previous month. Still, the report showed a pickup in volumes for energy imports and exports, suggesting that the industry may be turning a corner. Canadian building permits and Ivey PMI numbers are due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar advanced against its forex counterparts when the leading jobs indicators hinted at an upside surprise for the NFP. The ADP non-farm employment change report showed a 172K gain versus the projected 158K increase and the previous 168K rise. Analysts are expecting to see a 175K gain in hiring for the NFP report and an increase in the jobless rate from 4.7% to 4.8%. Revisions to previous reports could also have a strong impact on dollar action.
EUR
The euro slumped against its forex peers as the ECB minutes acknowledged the potential repercussions from a Brexit. German industrial production was weaker than expected with a 1.3% slump versus the projected 0.1% uptick. Only the German trade balance and French industrial production numbers are due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound tried to limit its losses and drew a bit of support from better than expected UK manufacturing production numbers. Manufacturing production fell 0.5% versus the estimated 1.0% decline while industrial production showed a smaller than expected drop as well. Only the goods trade balance is due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc gave up ground to its counterparts once more after the foreign currency reserves showed a gain from 602 billion CHF to 609 billion CHF. Swiss CPI was slightly better than expected at 0.1% instead of the estimated flat reading. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and no change from the previous 3.5% figure is eyed.
JPY
The yen was mostly stronger in recent trading sessions as risk aversion stayed in the financial markets. Data from Japan came in mostly weaker than expected today, with the current account balance and average cash earnings falling short of consensus.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi was one of the leading performers for the day after an RBNZ official said that lowering rates further would lead to financial instability. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar suffered after the S&P downgraded the country’s sovereign debt rating on political uncertainty. Canada released mixed reports, with a strong Ivey PMI and a downbeat building permits figure, and the jobs report is up next. Analysts are expecting to see a 5.5K gain in hiring and a rise in the jobless rate.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained ground against its forex peers on Friday, thanks to much stronger than expected jobs data. The US economy added 287K jobs in June, outpacing the projected 175K gain, while the previous reading was downgraded from 38K to 11K. Average hourly earnings was lower than expected with a mere 0.1% uptick while the unemployment rate rose from 4.7% to 4.9%. There are no reports due from the US economy today but FOMC member George has a testimony lined up.
EUR
The euro was mostly weaker on Friday, as medium-tier euro zone data fell short of expectations. The German trade surplus narrowed from 24.1 billion EUR to 22.2 billion EUR while French industrial production showed a 0.5% drop versus the projected 0.4% decline. Only the Italian industrial production report is due today.
GBP
The pound struggled to hold its ground on Friday as selling pressure seemed exhausted. There were no major reports out of the UK on Friday and traders continued to focus on Brexit-related updates, the latest of which included a rejection to redo the EU referendum vote. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker against its peers since the threat of SNB intervention weighed on the currency’s gains. The Swiss jobless rate improved to 3.3% while the previous month’s figure enjoyed a positive revision. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen regained some ground against its higher-yielding counterparts but was weaker to the dollar after the NFP release. Earlier today, Japan’s core machinery orders report printed a worse than expected 1.4% slide versus the estimated 3.1% gain. Preliminary machine tool orders data is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls put up a strong fight against the dollar and most of their currency counterparts at the end of last week. Canada saw a 0.7K reduction in jobs but its jobless rate fell from 6.9% to 6.8% instead of rising to the estimated 7.0% figure. Over the weekend, Chinese CPI and PPI indicated weaker price pressures. No other reports are due from the comdoll economies today but Australian election updates could push AUD pairs around.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained some ground against its peers when traders dumped their yen holdings in search of other safe-havens. The US labor market conditions index showed an improvement and FOMC member George acknowledged the strong rebound in June hiring during her testimony. More FOMC members have speeches later today and the US JOLTS job openings report is up for release.
EUR
The euro regained ground as sentiment improved in the European region. Data was actually weaker than expected as Italian industrial production shrank by 0.6% instead of showing the projected 0.1% uptick. German final CPI and WPI are up for release today.
GBP
The pound staged a strong rally as David Cameron will be tendering his resignation on Wednesday to make room for new PM Theresa May after rival Andrea Leadsom withdrew from the race. There were no reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has a speech by BOE Governor Carney who might set the tone for the upcoming BOE statement.
CHF
The franc lost ground to its forex peers despite the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could continue to take its cue from market sentiment and European region updates.
JPY
The yen lost a lot of ground when Japanese PM Shinzo Abe ordered the preparation of an economic stimulus package. This led traders to speculate that the BOJ might also be pushed to increase easing now that Abe’s political party has secured the majority of the Upper House seats and could carry on with “Abenomics.” Japan’s PPI showed a sharper than expected 4.2% drop in produce prices and the tertiary industry activity report is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of the yen selloff but were slightly weaker to the dollar. Canadian housing starts beat expectations at 218K versus 192K while Australia’s NAB business confidence index improved from 3 to 6. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up ground against its forex peers earlier on in the week as risk appetite returned to the markets. However, traders seem to be booking profits off their recent dollar shorts. Data from the US economy came in mixed, as the JOLTS job openings report showed fewer than expected hiring opportunities while wholesale inventories suggested a rise in demand. FOMC member Bullard noted that he doesn’t see the risk of recession in the US and that stimulus might not be necessary. The Fed Beige Book is up for release next.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it advanced to the yen but gave up ground to the dollar, pound, comdolls. Data from the euro zone was slightly better than expected but traders appear to be more focused on the Italian banking crisis and the possibility of contagion. French final CPI and euro zone industrial production reports are due today.
GBP
The pound continued to advance against most of its peers, thanks to the improving political landscape in the UK. BOE Governor Carney didn’t drop any dovish clues in his latest testimony, leading traders to lighten up on their pound shorts ahead of the central bank statement on Thursday.
CHF
The franc lost further ground to its peers despite the lack of data from Switzerland. Traders seem to have shifted to a short bias on the Swiss currency after the SNB confirmed that they had intervened in the currency markets recently. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen carried on with another day of declines as traders continued to speculate about additional easing efforts from the central bank and government. Data from Japan was mostly in line with expectations as the PPI was down 4.2% year-over-year while tertiary industry activity fell 0.7%. Japan’s revised industrial production report is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of the pickup in risk-taking during recent trading sessions, advancing against the European currencies and the yen. Westpac consumer sentiment in Australia fell 3.0% this month, following the previous 1.0% decline. China’s trade balance is up for release next and the BOC will make its monetary policy decision in the upcoming US session. US crude oil inventories data is also due.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained a bit of ground against its forex peers as risk aversion returned to the markets. Data from the US economy was mixed yesterday, as the Fed Beige Book indicated that most districts saw modest economic growth and a pickup in consumer spending. Import prices posted a smaller than expected 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.6% climb. Initial jobless claims and PPI are up for release today.
EUR
The euro consolidated to the dollar and was mostly weaker against its other forex rivals as data from the euro zone missed expectations. Industrial production sank by 1.2% versus the projected 0.8% drop while the French final CPI posted a feeble 0.1% gain. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound resumed its drop against its forex peers as traders booked profits on Theresa May’s PM appointment. Traders are also positioning ahead of the BOE statement today, during which the UK central bank might cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25%. Still, some believe that the BOE might hold its fire for now and wait until next month to ease, possibly triggering a relief rally for the currency.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as it functioned mostly as a countercurrency. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the PPI on tap. Producer prices could show a 0.2% increase, slower than the previous 0.4% gain.
JPY
The yen paused from its dive as traders probably booked profits at key levels. Japan’s industrial production report suffered a downgrade to show a 2.6% year-over-year slide versus the projected upgrade from -2.3% to -2.2%. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls paused from their climb as risk-taking weakened. The BOC kept rates unchanged as expected but downgraded growth forecasts for this year and the next. Earlier today, Australia printed a smaller than expected rise in hiring of 7.9K versus the estimated 10.1K growth while the jobless rate rose from 5.7% to 5.8% as expected. There are no major reports lined up from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up ground as risk appetite improved in earlier trading sessions but soon recovered when US data came in strong. Initial jobless claims stood at 254K versus the 263K forecast while PPI reports also beat expectations. US retail sales and CPI are up for release today. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% uptick in headline retail sales and a 0.4% increase in core retail sales. Headline and core CPI could show 0.2% gains. Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment data is also up for release.
EUR
The euro followed in the pound’s footsteps and rallied when the BOE refrained from cutting interest rates. There were no major reports out of the euro zone economy yesterday while today has the trade balance and final CPI readings due. Stronger than expected data could allow the shared currency to hold on to its gains and go for more.
GBP
The pound staged a strong rally when the BOE decided to sit on its hands instead of cutting interest rates. However this keeps the possibility of an August easing announcement in play, as the MPC minutes showed that policymakers discussed a range of stimulus options. BOE Governor Carney has a testimony lined up today.
CHF
The franc gave up ground to its peers as European traders flocked to the pound and euro. Data from Switzerland was weaker than expected as producer prices showed a meager 0.1% uptick versus the projected 0.2% increase. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen consolidated to its peers as traders continued to wait for more easing clues from the Japanese government and central bank. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today, which suggests that risk appetite could push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls saw a lot of volatility as risk sentiment kept switching. Data from Australia came in weaker than expected as hiring grew by 7.9K versus the projected 10.1K increase. Traders are holding out for the release of top-tier data from China today, as the world’s second largest economy is scheduled to print its Q2 GDP, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and industrial production reports.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained a lot of ground against its forex counterparts during Friday’s US trading session, thanks to stronger than expected retail sales reports. Headline retail sales rose 0.6% versus the projected 0.1% uptick while core retail sales advanced 0.7% versus the estimated 0.4% gain. Headline and core CPI came in line with expectations of 0.2% gains.There are no major reports due from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro gave up most of its recent gains at the end of the week when the attacks in Nice and the coup in Turkey weighed on market sentiment in the region. Final CPI readings in the euro zone were unchanged from the initial estimates for a 0.1% uptick in the headline figure and a 0.9% gain for the core reading. There are no major reports due from the region today.
GBP
The pound slumped on Friday as traders booked profits off the currency’s post-BOE relief rally. There were no new reports out of the UK then and BOE Governor Carney didn’t share any clues on the central bank’s next moves in his testimony that day, but investors seem to be pricing in an August cut already. There are no reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as it lost ground to the dollar but advanced to the euro and pound. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then so the currency likely reacted to changing market sentiment. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today.
JPY
The yen got back on its feet on Friday as traders probably booked profits off their yen shorts from earlier in the week. In addition, data from China was mostly better than expected, reviving confidence in the Asian market. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were off to a good start thanks to mostly upbeat Chinese data. The Q2 GDP held steady at 6.7% while industrial production rose from 6.0% to 6.2% instead of falling to 5.9%. Over the weekend, New Zealand printed a weaker than expected quarterly CPI of 0.4% and the RBNZ noted that they will provide an update on the economy by the end of this week. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way