USD
The US dollar had another weak performance after leading jobs indicators missed expectations. The ADP report printed a meager 153K gain versus the projected 171K figure and the earlier 215K increase while the jobs component of the ISM non-manufacturing PMI showed a slide. Challenger job cuts rose 42% in December, its fastest rise since September 2015. All eyes and ears are on the NFP today and a 175K rise in hiring is eyed while average hourly earnings could tick up by 0.3%.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but was no match to yen or comdoll strength. Medium-tier reports from the region were still upbeat but the uncertainties looming ahead of the French and German elections, as well as Italy’s banking troubles, prevented the shared currency from making gains across the board. German factory orders and retail sales data are due today.
GBP
The pound also advanced against the dollar but failed to hold on to its gains against the rest of its peers even after seeing strong UK data. Services PMI also beat expectations with a rise from 55.2 to 56.2 instead of falling to 54.8. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was able to chalk up a positive day, as it advanced to the dollar and the European currencies. Swiss CPI came in line with expectations of a 0.1% dip in price levels while today has the SNB foreign currency reserves data due, which might reveal whether or not the central bank is intervening in the currency market.
JPY
The yen continued to gain ground against its peers as investor jitters can be felt all over the globe. To top it off, the yen is regaining some of its lost profits to the dollar now that traders are doubting that the Fed can stick with its plan of hiking rates thrice this year. Japanese average cash earnings printed a 0.2% uptick as expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls had a mixed performance as they consolidated to the yen but racked up some wins to the dollar. Australia’s trade balance beat expectations with a 1.24 billion AUD surplus. Canada is set to print its jobs numbers today and a 5.1K drop in employment is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave up a bit of ground when the actual December NFP reading fell short of estimates, posting a 158K gain versus the projected 175K increase. However, the currency held fast and advanced later on as traders got wind of upward revisions in the November report and realized that the pickup in the jobless rate was due to higher labor force participation. Average hourly earnings also beat expectations with a 0.4% rise versus the estimated 0.3% uptick. The Fed’s labor market conditions index is up for release today.
EUR
The euro continued to climb against its peers even though data came in mixed. German factory orders fell 2.5% as expected while retail sales slipped 1.8% versus the projected 0.8% decline. German industrial production and trade balance are due today, along with the region’s Sentix investor confidence index and unemployment rate.
GBP
The pound resumed its slide against most of its peers as there were no reports to keep it supported and traders shrugged off the upside surprises in PMIs earlier in the week. UK Halifax HPI is due today and a 0.3% rise in house prices is expected, although traders are likely to pay more attention to Brexit-related headlines.
CHF
The franc was in a weak spot against most of its peers, except against the British pound. Swiss foreign currency reserves ticked lower, easing fears that the the SNB is intervening in the currency market. Swiss retail sales data is up for release today and a 0.4% year-over-year rebound is eyed.
JPY
The yen was also on weak footing as risk appetite appeared to improve and traders revived their love for the dollar. Japanese banks are closed for the holiday today so traders could continue to react to market sentiment in trading yen pairs.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the strongest performers towards the end of the week, particularly the Loonie which was lifted by strong Canadian jobs data. The economy added 53.7K jobs in December instead of losing 5.1K jobs while the trade balance turned into a 0.5B CAD surplus instead of printing a 1.6B CAD deficit. The Ivey PMI also beat expectations by rising from 56.8 to 60.8 versus the 56.0 consensus. The BOC Business Outlook Survey is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was unable to establish a clear direction in recent sessions as US data came in mixed. Consumer credit showed strong gains in November while the Fed’s labor market conditions index slumped back to negative territory at -0.3. JOLTS job openings data and NFIB small business index are lined up today.
EUR
The euro advanced to the dollar, slumped against the yen, and consolidated against the commodity currencies. Data from the region has also been mixed as German trade balance and Sentix investor confidence beat expectations while German industrial production and Italy’s unemployment rate fell short. For today, French industrial production data is due and a 0.5% rebound is eyed.
GBP
The pound was the weakest of the bunch as Brexit-related headlines weighed on the currency. Over the weekend, PM May hinted that they’re willing to forego access to the single market in exchange for closing UK borders while Chancellor Hammond reiterated their plans to conclude Brexit talks by April 2019. Halifax HPI beat expectations with a 1.7% gain and the BRC retail sales monitor posted a stronger 1.0% gain.
CHF
The franc tossed and turned against the dollar but was able to rake in strong gains against the pound. Swiss retail sales came in stronger than expected with a 0.9% gain versus the projected 0.4% uptick and earlier 0.7% drop. Swiss jobless rate is due today and no change from the earlier 3.3% reading is eyed.
JPY
The yen was one of the strongest performers as it took advantage of the selloff in higher-yielding currencies. Japanese banks were closed for the holiday yesterday while today has the consumer confidence index on tap. A climb from 40.9 to 41.3 is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls struggled to hold on to their gains in recent sessions, giving up ground against the Japanese yen. Crude oil took a hit while Australia reported a smaller than expected 0.2% gain in retail sales versus the projected 0.4% increase. Chinese CPI came up short with a 2.1% gain instead of the 2.2% figure but PPI beat expectations at 5.5% versus 4.6%. Canadian building permits and housing starts are due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The dollar had a mixed performance as economic data did very little to provide strong direction. JOLTS job openings came in at 5.52M, up from the downgraded 5.45M reading in October but short of the estimated 5.59M figure. The NFIB small business index showed a strong climb from 98.4 to 105.8. There are no major reports due from the US today.
EUR
The euro was able to advance against the dollar but weakened against most of its major counterparts. French industrial production data beat expectations with a 2.2% gain versus the projected 0.5% uptick. There are no reports lined up from the region today.
GBP
The pound was able to make a quick bounce against most of its rivals, as Brexit headlines took the back seat. UK BRC retail sales monitor printed a sharper 1.0% gain versus the earlier 0.6% uptick. UK manufacturing production and goods trade balance figures are lined up today, with the former slated to show a 0.6% rebound and the latter likely to print a wider 11.2 billion GBP deficit.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker even though the Swiss jobless rate came in line with expectations at 3.3%. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could take its cue from country-specific data.
JPY
The yen continued to rake in gains against its peers as the Japanese currency took advantage of the slowdown in dollar demand. Japanese consumer confidence data improved from 40.9 to 43.1 and leading indicators are due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was bogged down by weak crude oil prices on expectations of higher US inventories. Building permits and housing starts printed mixed results as well. Australian retail sales printed a slower 0.2% gain versus the projected 0.5% rise while Chinese CPI fell short of estimates. EIA crude oil inventories data lined up today could push Loonie pairs around once more.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar staged a sudden selloff when President-elect Trump delivered his first press conference during which he focused on a number of issues such as Russia’s election hack, drug overpricing, and Mexico’s automobile industry among many others but failed to share more fiscal policy details. US initial jobless claims and speeches by FOMC members Evans and Harker are lined up.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it advanced to the dollar but weakened against most of its rivals. There have been no major reports out of the region yesterday but Brexit headlines dampened the outlook for the bloc. French final CPI and euro zone industrial production numbers are on tap today and strong figures could spur a rebound. ECB minutes are also due.
GBP
The pound was still one of the weakest performers even after BOE Governor Carney highlighted upbeat economic data and mentioned that the Brexit might not be the biggest risk to stability. UK data turned out mixed, as manufacturing production beat expectations with a 1.3% gain versus the projected 0.6% uptick while goods trade balance printed a wider 12.2 billion GBP deficit. There are no major reports lined up from the UK today.
CHF
The franc took advantage of dollar weakness but tossed and turned against its European counterparts. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today so the franc could continue to react to country-specific updates or market sentiment.
JPY
The yen raked in more gains against its peers as the dollar’s slide left the Japanese currency as the more appealing safe-haven. Japan’s bank lending data and current account balance also came in stronger than expected, following the improvement in leading indicators and reminding traders of the BOJ’s GDP upgrade.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls rallied against the dollar and the European currencies even as US crude oil inventories reflected a larger than expected buildup of 4.1 million barrels. In New Zealand, commodity prices picked up by 0.7% in December. There are no major reports lined up from the commodity currencies.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar continued to slide as investors priced in concerns about the Trump presidency. Economic data was better than expected while FOMC voting members reaffirmed their rate hike time line and mostly upbeat assessment of the economy. US retail sales, PPI, and UoM consumer sentiment data are up for release today.
EUR
The euro was also in a weak spot against most of its peers, particularly the commodity currencies, but was on stronger footing against the pound. Italian industrial production beat expectations and so did the region’s report but investors are wary of the potential Brexit repercussions on the EU if the UK is kicked out of the single market.
GBP
The pound continued to tumble across the board as traders pared their risk ahead of PM May’s testimony today. There were no major reports out of the UK yesterday and the BOE credit conditions survey is lined up today. BOE member Haldane also has a testimony scheduled.
CHF
The franc strengthened against the dollar and its European rivals as risk aversion came into play. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.
JPY
The Japanese yen had a mixed performance as it ended in the green against the euro and pound but was no match to comdoll strength. Japan’s Economy Watchers sentiment index climbed from 48.6 to 51.4, higher than the estimated 49.3 figure.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the strongest performers in recent sessions, thanks to rising gold prices. China reported a smaller than expected trade surplus for January. The reading came in at 275B CNY versus the estimated 345B CNY figure and the earlier 298B surplus, dragged down by a sharper fall in exports.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was off to a strong start this week on risk-off vibes in the markets. Traders seem to be shrugging off the impact of Trump’s first press conference but are still wary ahead of the inauguration later this week. US reports were mixed, as headline retail sales and PPI beat expectations while core figures fell short of consensus. US banks are closed for Martin Luther King Day today.
EUR
The euro gapped down to most of its counterparts to start the week as traders are anticipating more bearishness with all the catalysts lined up. Data from the euro zone was actually stronger than expected on Friday but Brexit-related fears seem to be dominating price action. Euro zone trade balance is due today and a wider 23.2 billion EUR surplus is eyed.
GBP
The pound also started the week lower against its peers as traders are bracing themselves for UK PM May’s Brexit speech midweek. Any indication that a “hard Brexit” would be a possibility could send the currency crashing lower. BOE Governor Carney has a speech lined up today and he could attempt to shore up confidence in the UK economy.
CHF
The franc had a volatile run on Friday as it was also dragged down by the rest of its European peers. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so the franc could be pushed and pulled by market sentiment and country-specific action once more.
JPY
The Japanese yen is taking advantage of the jitters in the European region, raking in gains against the euro and pound while gapping up against most of its counterparts. Over the weekend, Japanese data turned out mixed as core machinery orders posted a sharper than expected 5.1% fall while PPI showed a smaller than expected 1.2% drop. Tertiary industry activity data and preliminary machine tool orders figures are due today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls are still able to hold on to their gains despite the risk-off vibes, possibly supported by speculations that China is poised for stronger growth and the pickup in commodity prices. However, the Chinese trade balance turned out weaker than expected on Friday due to a larger fall in exports. Australia posted a 0.5% gain in its MI inflation gauge, higher than the previous 0.1% uptick, while New Zealand printed a 0.8% decline in FPI.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
Most dollar pairs were trading sideways as US traders were off on the Martin Luther King Day holiday. Traders are set to return to their desks today but only the Empire State manufacturing index is up for release, along with a speech by FOMC member Dudley.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro seems to be in a weak spot ahead of this week’s events, particularly UK PM May’s speech. Any indication that they’re willing to give up access to the single market could also mean repercussions for the bloc’s trade revenues. Euro zone trade balance already came in weaker than expected with a 22.7 billion EUR surplus while ZEW economic sentiment readings from Germany and the entire region are lined up today.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound was off to a poor start for the week in anticipation of “hard Brexit” talk from PM May. If she reiterates how they’re willing to forego the single market in exchange for immigration controls, the UK currency could be in for another wave down. UK CPI readings are also up for release and gains in the headline and core figure are eyed, with BOE Governor Carney recently emphasizing that they have a limited tolerance for strong inflation.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc tossed and turned against the dollar while consolidating to the euro and advancing against the pound. The Swiss currency could serve as a safe-haven for European trades but investors are still wary of SNB intervention. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen continued to take advantage of risk-off moves as traders are shying away from the dollar on Trump’s upcoming inauguration. Data from Japan has been in line with estimates, as the tertiary industry activity index printed a 0.2% uptick while the preliminary machine tool orders report saw a 4.4% rebound. Revised industrial production data is lined up next.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
[/B]
The comdolls held on to most of their recent gains, thanks to rising commodity prices. New Zealand’s NZIER business confidence index improved from 26 to 28 while new home loans in Australia posted a stronger than expected 0.9% gain. New Zealand’s GDT auction is due next and a pickup in dairy prices could spur more Kiwi gains.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The dollar weakened to most of its counterparts as Fed rhetoric, weak data, and Trump jitters were in play. The Empire State manufacturing index fell from 9.0 to 6.5, lower than the 8.1 consensus, while FOMC member Dudley cast doubts on the Fed’s rate hike time line. For today, FOMC member Kashkari and Fed head Yellen have testimonies lined up.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro carried on with its slide against its forex counterparts as ZEW economic sentiment readings came in weaker than expected. In Germany, the reading rose from 13.8 to 16.6, short of the estimated improvement to 18.9 while the region’s figure ticked up from 18.1 to 23.2. Euro zone final CPI readings are due today.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound erased a lot of its earlier losses so far this year when PM May took the stage and reassured market watchers that the UK can emerge stronger from Brexit. To top it off, UK CPI readings beat expectations as the headline and core figures rose to 1.6%. Claimant count change is due today and a 4.6K increase in joblessness is eyed, but a faster pace of growth in average earnings could still keep the pound propped up.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc rallied against the dollar but gave up ground to the pound in recent sessions. There were no reports out of Switzerland then and none are due today so the currency could keep reacting to country-specific events.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen continued to advance against the dollar and most of its rivals, except against the pound. Japan’s industrial production reading was unchanged at 1.5% as expected. There are no reports due from Japan today but the yen might continue to benefit from anti-USD sentiment.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls fell victim to pound strength but managed to hold on to their wins against the euro and the dollar. New Zealand reported a 0.6% rebound in dairy prices during the latest auction. The BOC statement is due today and upgraded forecasts could mean more gains for the Canadian dollar.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar made a strong comeback in the forex arena, buoyed by upbeat data and hawkish remarks from Fed head Yellen. CPI and industrial production reports came in line with consensus while Yellen praised the economy for moving closer to achieving the Fed’s dual mandate of 2% inflation and full employment. She also mentioned that not hiking soon enough could force the Fed to tighten too aggressively, which increases the odds of a recession. Initial jobless claims, building permits and housing starts, and the Philly Fed index are all due today.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro gave up ground to the dollar but advanced against the yen, Kiwi, and Loonie. Final CPI readings in the region were unchanged at 1.1% for the headline figure and 0.9% for the core figure. The ECB statement is coming up today and traders are interested to find out if the central bank is looking to taper its stimulus program anytime soon, given the recent improvements in data.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound continued to advance against most of its peers when UK jobs figures surpassed expectations. The economy saw a 10.1K drop in joblessness instead of the estimated 4.6K increase in claimants. The previous reading was also upgraded while the average earnings index indicated a faster pace of wage growth at 2.8%. There are no major reports due from the UK economy today.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc gave up ground to the dollar but managed to hold on to its lead against the pound and euro. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the PPI on tap. An increase of 0.2% in producer prices is eyed, stronger than the earlier 0.1% uptick.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen was mostly weaker, except against the Loonie, as traders flocked back to the US dollar. There were no major reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls were mostly able to stay resilient, except for the Loonie when the BOC statement took place. Governor Poloz mentioned that a rate cut is still a possibility if downside risks materialize, particularly when it comes to US tax changes and Trump’s fiscal policy plans. Australia reported a higher than expected 13.5K increase in employment and an improvement in its participation rate. Crude oil inventories and Canadian manufacturing sales data are lined up next.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar failed to establish a clear direction in recent trading as it initially rallied on upbeat data but soon gave up its intraday gains. The Philly Fed index, initial jobless claims, and housing starts figures came in better than expected but traders seem wary of Trump’s inauguration later on in the day. Additional volatility could be in play and profit-taking ahead of the event could take place.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro had a sharp selloff after the ECB statement as Draghi clarified that the recent pickup in inflation was merely spurred by higher energy costs and not indicative of strong underlying pressures. He also repeated that policymakers haven’t discussed QE tapering yet and that there are risks from Brexit and Trump. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound continued to advance against most of its counterparts even though there were no major reports out of the UK yesterday. Traders seem to be assured by UK PM May’s testimony and recent upside data surprises. UK retail sales data is due today and a 0.1% dip in price levels is expected.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc continued to consolidate to the euro but gave up ground to the pound. Swiss PPI came in line with expectations of a 0.2% increase, signaling some upside inflationary pressures. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so the franc could be driven by market sentiment.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen was mostly weaker compared to its counterparts, except for the Canadian dollar. There have been no major reports out of Japan yesterday so country-specific events pushed yen pairs around. There are still no reports due from Japan today but the pickup in risk appetite stemming from upbeat Chinese data seems to be keeping a lid on yen gains.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The Aussie and Kiwi managed to hold on to their lead, thanks to Chinese reports coming in mostly in line with estimates. The economy expanded by 6.8% versus 6.7% in Q4 while retail sales picked up and industrial production lagged slightly. Australia’s jobs figures also beat expectations but rising crude oil stockpiles dampened the Loonie’s gains. Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are due today.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
USD
The US dollar continued to edge down against its counterparts even after Trump’s inauguration, as investors remained wary of fiscal policy plans and changes in trade relations. After all, Trump did say that he plans on renegotiating NAFTA with Canada and Mexico. There are no major reports from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro recovered against most of its rivals on Friday even though there were no major reports out of the region. Today has the euro zone consumer confidence index on tap and no change from the previous -5 figure is eyed. ECB head Draghi has a testimony lined up and he might reiterate how the pickup in energy-based inflation might not be enough to prompt a discussion on tightening.
GBP
The pound also rebounded against its peers even though UK retail sales printed a dismal 1.9% slide versus the projected 0.1% dip. The sharp rise in price levels is likely taking its toll on consumer behavior, as this may have led households to trim purchases even during the holiday season. There are no reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc took advantage of dollar weakness but was stuck in consolidation against its European counterparts. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so the currency could take its cue from market sentiment and country-specific data.
JPY
The yen got back on its feet on Friday, due mostly to the selloff in the dollar and the rise in risk aversion. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy then while today has the all industries activity index due.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie and Kiwi were able to advance to the dollar but the Loonie lagged as the BOC’s dovish tone continued to dampen the currency’s gains.To top it off, data from Canada turned out weaker than expected as headline CPI and retail sales came up short. Canada’s wholesale sales report is due today and a 0.3% uptick is expected.
Dampened the Loonie’s gains. Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was still a big loser in recent sessions as traders seemed hesitant to bet on the economy with Trump taking the lead. The new President has signed an executive order quitting TPP and halting federal hiring while discussing his plans to renegotiate NAFTA with Mexico and Canada. Treasury Secretary nominee Mnuchin warned against excessive USD appreciation which would be negative in the short term. US flash manufacturing PMI, existing home sales, and Richmond manufacturing index are due next but the spotlight is likely to stay on Trump.*
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it advanced to the dollar and Loonie while sinking to the yen, Aussie, and Kiwi. There were no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has the flash manufacturing and services PMIs on tap. A slight dip in the manufacturing sector is eyed while services could continue to pick up.
GBP
The pound also raked in some gains but its rallies were limited by the upcoming event risk. The UK High Court ruling on the need to secure parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50 is up for release today, and this could determine how long the UK economy will be in limbo. UK public sector net borrowing data is also due.
CHF
The franc kept advancing to the dollar but was still stuck in consolidation to the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today also has an empty economic schedule, which suggests that the franc could react to country-specific events and overall market sentiment.
JPY
The yen remained the beneficiary of risk-off moves particularly during the Asian session. Data from Japan was better than expected today, as the flash manufacturing PMI climbed from an upgraded 52.4 figure to 52.8 to reflect a faster pace of industry growth instead of dipping to 52.3.*
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie was the weakest of the bunch as Trump’s plans to negotiate NAFTA could have repercussions on Canada’s exports. Wholesale sales came in slightly below estimates with a 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.3% gain. Australia’s CB and MI leading indices are due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained some ground in recent trading as data came in mostly stronger than expected and the S&P 500 index reached record highs. The flash manufacturing PMI rose from 54.3 to 55.1, higher than the projected 54.6 figure, while the Richmond manufacturing index also advanced. Existing home sales fell but this was mostly due to tighter inventory. There are no major reports due from the US today so traders could pay closer attention to Trump’s moves.
EUR
The euro continued to advance against most of its peers as the UK High Court ruling eased some Brexit concerns. Also, euro zone reports came in mixed, with German flash manufacturing PMI and French flash services PMI beating expectations. German Ifo business climate is due today and a rise from 111.0 to 111.3 is expected.
GBP
The pound had a volatile time during the announcement of the UK High Court ruling but the decision to require parliamentary approval before invoking Article 50 proved to be bullish for the currency. This could give the government and lawmakers time to iron out their negotiation game plan before debating with EU officials. UK public sector borrowing data also indicated improving financial conditions. CBI industrial order expectations is due today.
CHF
The franc edged slightly lower against the euro and the pound as risk appetite improved and the dollar stabilized. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the UBS consumption indicator on tap. Any decline from the earlier 1.43 figure could push the franc lower.
JPY
The yen gave up a lot of its recent gains when demand for the dollar returned. Japanese flash manufacturing PMI and trade balance came in stronger than expected. The surplus narrowed from 0.47T JPY to 0.36T JPY but this was better than the projected 0.22T JPY reading.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave up some of their recent gains to the dollar but the Loonie managed to stay resilient as Trump signed the executive order for the Keystone XL pipeline construction. This could shore up demand for Canada’s energy resources, which would support growth and hiring. In Australia, the quarterly CPI missed estimates with a 0.5% uptick versus the projected 0.7% increase. US crude oil inventories data is due today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar failed to benefit from the strong rallies in equities, even as the Dow 30 index surged past the 20K mark. Risk appetite appears to be returning and shoring up demand for higher-yielding currencies. Only the crude oil inventories report was printed from the US economy yesterday while today has initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, flash services PMI, and new home sales due.
EUR
The euro continued to advance against most of its peers even though data from the region came in weaker than expected. The German Ifo business climate index printed a surprise drop from 111.0 to 109.8 versus the projected rise to 111.3. As it turns out, German manufacturers are less optimistic about current and future business conditions in the country, possibly due to Brexit concerns. Spanish unemployment rate, German GfK consumer climate index, and Italian retail sales are lined up today.
GBP
The pound was one of the strongest performers of the bunch as it continued to rally on the heels of the UK High Court ruling. Also, UK CBI industrial order expectations rose from 0 to 5, higher than the projected reading at 2. The UK preliminary GDP reading is due today and 0.5% growth is expected for the fourth quarter of 2016. Stronger than expected data could assure traders that the UK is staying resilient even with Brexit risks.
CHF
The franc continued to tread carefully against the euro and dollar but it gave up more ground to the pound. The UBS consumption indicator showed an improvement from an upgraded 1.45 reading to 1.50 while Credit Suisse’s economic expectations index also rose from 12.9 to 18.5. Switzerland’s trade balance is due today and a narrower surplus is eyed.
JPY
The yen settled into consolidation against most of its rivals as traders are starting to feel stronger risk appetite. There have been no major reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday and none are due today so it could be all about market sentiment from here.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie continued its advance on reports that the Keystone XL pipeline might commence construction soon, shoring up demand for Canada’s energy resources. However, gains were limited as the US crude oil inventories report showed a larger buildup in stockpiles. In New Zealand, the Q4 CPI beat expectations with a 0.4% uptick versus the projected 0.3% increase. Australia’s banks are closed for the holiday today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained a bit of ground against its peers as traders seem to be buying into Trump’s protectionist plans. A list of infrastructure priority projects has been compiled and equities seem to be cheering the prospect of fiscal stimulus, tax reform, and financial deregulation. US advanced GDP data is due today and a slower growth figure of 2.1% is eyed. Durable goods orders data is also due.
EUR
The euro gave up some ground to the dollar and its other rivals even though data came in mostly stronger than expected. The German GfK consumer climate index advanced from 9.9 to 10.2 versus the 10.0 consensus and Spain reported an improvement in its jobless rate. However, Italy’s retail sales report printed a surprise 0.7% drop versus the projected 0.1% uptick. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound continued to advance against most of its peers as traders seem hopeful about a bilateral trade deal between the UK and the US ahead of Prime Minister May’s trip to Washington. In that case, this could reassure businesses that activity can stay supported even if they wind up giving up access to the single market. UK preliminary GDP also came in stronger than expected with 0.6% growth, keeping investors confident that the UK economy is staying resilient. There are no reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc finally broke out of its consolidation against the euro even while consolidating to the pound and dollar. Swiss trade balance was weaker than expected at a smaller 2.71 billion CHF surplus compared to the estimated 2.81 billion CHF surplus. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen gave up ground against its peers as the BOJ pursued moves to target the yield curve. Policymakers have decided to make bond-buying adjustments in order to flatten the yield curve in reaction to changing US bond yields. Inflation reports came in better than expected as the Tokyo core CPI printed a 0.3% dip versus the projected 0.4% drop while the national core CPI showed a 0.2% decline versus the projected 0.3% tumble.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls gave back some of their gains to the dollar but the Loonie managed to edge higher on expectations of rising oil prices and a pickup in the Canadian energy sector due to the Keystone XL pipeline construction. Inflation data from Australia was mixed as import prices rose 0.2% versus 0.4% while PPI was up 0.5% versus 0.2%. Chinese banks are closed for the Spring Holiday today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The dollar managed to regain ground towards the end of the week despite weaker than expected Q4 GDP data. The economy grew by 1.9% in the period, slower than the estimated 2.1% growth figure and the earlier 3.5% expansion. UoM consumer sentiment data was revised up from 98.1 to 98.5, outpacing the consensus at 98.2. Core PCE price index, along with personal spending and income data, is due today.
EUR
The euro held its ground on Friday as it got support from stronger than expected German import prices data. The report showed a 1.9% gain versus the projected 1.3% increase, signaling stronger inflationary pressures down the line. German preliminary CPI and Spanish flash GDP data are lined up today and another round of strong results could keep the shared currency afloat.
GBP
The pound gave back some of its gains from earlier in the week as traders likely booked profits before the weekend. There were no reports out of the UK then and none are due today, leaving traders to price in their expectations for the BOE decision later on this week.
CHF
The franc slipped back in consolidation on Friday after scoring a few gains against its rivals. There were no reports printed from Switzerland then while today has the KOF economic barometer on tap. An improvement from 102.2 to 102.9 is expected so this could allow the Swissy to stay afloat.
JPY
The yen gave up ground against most of its counterparts towards the end of the week as traders got wind of reports that the BOJ adjusted its bond purchases to target the yield curve. More details on this are expected for their upcoming monetary policy statement.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls failed to establish a clear direction against the dollar but managed to take advantage of yen weakness. Australian inflation reports were mixed as import prices came in short while PPI beat expectations. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a smaller trade deficit of 41 million NZD. There are no major reports due from the comdolls today while Chinese banks are closed for the holiday.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar had a volatile run but was unable to establish a clear direction while equities closed in the red. Data came in mixed, with personal spending beating expectations with its 0.5% gain versus the 0.4% consensus even as personal income fell short at 0.3%. The core PCE price index met consensus at 0.1% while pending home sales also hit the mark with a 1.6% increase. Chicago PMI and the quarterly employment cost index are lined up next.
EUR
The euro ended up mostly weaker against its peers when Germany printed a downbeat preliminary CPI reading. This could dampen the region’s flash CPI readings due today, although analysts expect the headline reading to rise from 1.1% to 1.5% and the core figure to stay unchanged at 0.9%. The preliminary GDP reading is also due and a 0.4% expansion is eyed.
GBP
The pound gave up some of its recent wins to its peers even though data came in slightly better than expected. The GfK consumer confidence reading improved from -7 to -5 instead of falling to -8. UK net lending to individuals data is due today but traders could be holding out ahead of the BOE Super Thursday.
CHF
The franc raked in gains to the dollar and continued to advance against the euro despite weak Swiss data. The KOF economic barometer fell from 102.1 to 101.7 instead of rising to 102.9. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be sensitive to euro movements.
JPY
The yen regained a lot of ground against its peers when US assets started selling off. Household spending and preliminary industrial production data from Japan also turned out better than expected while the BOJ refrained from making more policy changes. The BOJ press conference is due next so yen pairs might still have another round of volatility.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness but were no match to yen strength. New Zealand’s visitor arrivals fell 1.3% in December while Australia’s NAB business confidence figure was unchanged at 6. Canada’s monthly GDP is due next and a 0.3% growth figure is eyed while New Zealand will print its quarterly jobs report. A weaker 0.8% gain in hiring is expected compared to the earlier 1.4% increase but the unemployment rate could fall from 4.9% to 4.8%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar tumbled against its counterparts when President Trump called out China and Japan for currency devaluation tactics. For some, this was also a form of jawboning for the dollar. To top it off, economic data came in mostly in the red, with the CB consumer confidence index sinking from a downgraded 113.3 figure to 111.8 and the Chicago PMI dropping from 54.6 to 50.3. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 54.7 to 55.0 is eyed, but all eyes and ears are likely to be on the FOMC statement.
EUR
The euro was able to take advantage of dollar weakness while riding higher against the commodity currencies as well. Euro zone headline flash CPI was stronger than expected at 1.8% versus 1.5% from the earlier 1.1% figure while the core reading was unchanged at 0.9% as expected. The flash GDP reading printed a stronger than expected 0.5% expansion versus the projected 0.4% growth figure. Final manufacturing readings from top euro zone nations and EU economic forecasts are lined up today.
GBP
The pound also climbed higher to the dollar even though medium-tier reports from the UK missed expectations. Net lending to individuals came in at 4.3 billion GBP versus the 5.3 billion GBP consensus. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a fall from 56.1 to 55.9 is expected.
CHF
The franc chalked up another day of gains versus the dollar but gave up ground to the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the manufacturing PMI due. A small rise from 56.0 to 56.1 is eyed but a higher than expected read could reinforce franc strength.
JPY
The yen held on to its gains as the BOJ refrained from making policy changes. In the presser, Governor Kuroda mentioned that CPI is likely to hit the 2% target by next year and that growth could go above potential by then. There are no major reports due from the Japanese economy today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were in a weak spot after New Zealand printed downbeat headline jobs figures. Employment change was up 0.8% as expected but the earlier figure was downgraded from 1.4% to 1.3%. The unemployment rate rose from 4.9% to 5.2% due to a higher labor force participation rate, but this could mean that the slack is not being absorbed. China’s official manufacturing PMI dipped from 51.4 to 51.3, higher than the 51.2 consensus, while the non-manufacturing reading improved from 54.5 to 54.6.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar failed to benefit from stronger than expected data as bulls seemed disappointed by the lack of hawkishness in the Fed statement. The FOMC kept rates on hold as expected and acknowledged that consumer and business sentiment have improved. They also removed the reference to transitory effects from energy prices on inflation but maintained that gradual tightening is warranted. Initial jobless claims and preliminary non-farm productivity and labor costs are due today.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as reports came in mostly in line with expectations. Spanish manufacturing PMI beat expectations while final manufacturing PMI readings from its top economies just hit the mark. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today but ECB Governor Draghi’s speech could inspire some volatility.
GBP
The pound managed to hold on to its gains even with a lackluster UK manufacturing PMI which dipped from 56.1 to 55.9 as expected. Traders are holding out for today’s Super Thursday with the BOE decision, MPC minutes, and Inflation Report due. No actual policy changes are expected but traders are interested to find out if the BOE is shifting its bias in accordance with Trump’s administration and Brexit issues.
CHF
The franc regained ground to the dollar but was mostly weaker to its European rivals. Swiss manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected as the reading fell from 56.0 to 54.6 versus the projected 56.1 figure. Swiss retail sales is due today and a 0.5% year-over-year increase is eyed.
JPY
The yen had a mixed performance as it reacted to country-specific data and market sentiment. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so sentiment and yields could continue to drive yen price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls took advantage of dollar weakness, with the Aussie leading the pack thanks to strong trade balance and building approvals data. US crude oil inventories posted a larger than expected gain of 6.5 million barrels but the oil-related Loonie seemed to pay no mind. There are no reports due from the comdolls for the rest of the day.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way