USD
The US dollar was able to take a break from its slide when traders started pricing in strong NFP results. The consensus is for a 170K gain in hiring but analysts seem to be looking forward to a reading above 200K which might reinforce the Fed’s hawkish bias. Average hourly earnings could show a 0.3% uptick while the jobless rate is projected to hold steady at 4.7%.
EUR
The euro was mostly weaker against its peers even though data came in closely in line with expectations. The Spanish unemployment change figure came in at 57.3K versus the projected 60.2K reading while PPI was at 0.7% versus 0.5%. For today, final services PMI readings are due from the top euro zone economies, as well as the region’s retail sales figure.
GBP
The pound rallied then reversed with the BOE statement, as the central bank kept policy unchanged as expected. Policymakers upgraded growth forecasts but kept inflation estimates unchanged, hinting that they’re not looking to hike anytime soon. UK services PMI is due today and a fall from 56.2 to 55.8 is expected.
CHF
The franc caved to dollar strength but held on to its gains against the euro and the pound. Swiss retail sales posted a surprise 3.5% slump instead of the projected 0.5% uptick year-over-year. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The Japanese yen regained ground against the European currencies but consolidated to the commodity currencies. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen could be driven by bond yields in reaction to the US NFP release.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The commodity currencies managed to hold on to their gains against most of their counterparts, particularly the Aussie which was boosted by strong trade balance and building approvals reports earlier in the day. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI showed a steeper fall from 51.9 to 51.0 versus the projected dip to 51.8. In New Zealand, ANZ commodity prices slipped 0.1%. Trump’s threats on Iran also brought some jitters to the oil market.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar initially cheered stronger than expected NFP data but eventually resumed its slide to its peers. The headline reading showed a gain of 227K in hiring for January, higher than the consensus at 170K and the earlier 157K figure. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.7% to 4.8% while average hourly earnings printed a meager 0.1% uptick versus the projected 0.3% gain. ISM non-manufacturing PMI also fell short of estimates by falling to 56.5 versus the projected 57.0 figure. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.
EUR
The euro had a mixed performance as it weakened to the yen but advanced against the pound and dollar. Euro zone PMI readings were mostly in line with estimates except for the Spanish services PMI which showed slower than expected industry growth. German factory orders is due today and a 0.6% rebound is eyed while the euro zone retail PMI could show a rise from the earlier 50.4 figure.
GBP
The pound gave up ground to its peers when the UK services PMI fell short of estimates. The reading slid from 56.2 to 54.5 versus the projected 55.8 reading to show a much slower pace of industry expansion. There are no major reports due from the UK today.
CHF
The franc took advantage of dollar and pound weakness but was no match to euro strength. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday so the currency reacted to country-specific events. There are still no major reports due from Switzerland today.
JPY
The yen was on solid footing and able to take advantage of dollar weakness, as well as safe-haven demand. There were no reports out of Japan then but the drop in US bond yields encouraged investors to put their money back in Japanese bonds. Earlier today, Japan reported weaker average cash earnings growth of 0.1% versus the projected 0.4% increase.*
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls continued to rake in gains to the dollar and pound but failed to budge against the yen. Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI showed a steeper than expected drop while Australia printed a surprise 0.1% drop in retail sales instead of the estimated 0.3% increase. There are no other reports due from the comdolls today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar tried to get back on its feet but ended mostly lower against its peers as equity indices closed in the red. The US labor market conditions index rose from an upgraded 0.6 reading to 1.3 to reflect sustained improvements, supporting the idea of three rate hikes this year. FOMC Harker also reiterated this view, citing that further growth and employment gains could make March a contender for a tightening announcement. JOLTS job openings and consumer credit data are lined up today.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro tanked against most of its peers, particularly the comdolls and the yen, as Draghi once again downplayed the pickup in inflation. He even mentioned that they could vote to increase the size and duration of the QE program if necessary. German industrial production and French trade balance numbers are on today’s docket and weak results could reinforce Draghi’s easing bias. German factory orders and euro zone Sentix investor confidence data were actually better than expected.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound was also mostly weaker against its peers as traders are still pricing in last week’s PMI misses. Earlier today, the BRC retail sales monitor showed a 0.6% drop after the previous 1.0% gain. Halifax HPI is due next and a smaller 0.2% uptick is set to follow the previous 1.7% gain.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc was in a weak spot against most of its peers but managed to rake gains against the euro. Traders seem to be worried about the tax referendum in Switzerland since this could mean losing companies, jobs, and government revenue. Swiss SECO consumer climate data is due today and a climb from -13 to -11 is expected.
[B]JPY[/B]
The Japanese yen was the big winner for the day as it took advantage of risk aversion in the financial markets. Japanese average cash earnings were subpar with a 0.1% uptick versus the projected 0.4% increase. Leading indicators data is due today.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls were on stronger footing compared to their European counterparts as New Zealand reported stronger inflation expectations at 1.9% versus the previous 1.7% figure while the RBA kept rates unchanged at 1.50% as expected. Canadian trade balance, building permits, and Ivey PMI are lined up next, ahead of New Zealand’s GDT auction. A pickup in dairy prices could allow the Kiwi to sustain its climb.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
Forex is a 24 hours open market, it’s remain open 5 days of a week, so a for being a successful trader you should stay updated all the time and this special thread for updating you all the about Forex market so that you can stay at the market for lifetime.Come here before start you trade and know the possible situation of the market.
Excellent details about all the major currency, i am new, you are one of the finest analyst ever i see, i will with you all the way keep it up.
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar had a mixed performance as it merely reacted to country-specific events. Data from the economy turned out in line with expectations, with the trade deficit narrowing on stronger imports and exports and the JOLTS job openings figure mostly unchanged. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.
[B]EUR
[/B]
The euro managed to recover against some of its peers late in the day despite mixed data. German industrial production sank 3% versus the projected 0.2% uptick while the French trade balance showed a smaller than expected deficit. There are no major events in the region today.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound staged a late rally in the US session when BOE official Forbes talked about the possibility of a rate hike. She highlighted the strong pickup in inflation as a potential reason to tighten but warned that Brexit uncertainties could still lead to downside risks. The UK Halifax HPI posted a 0.9% drop in house prices versus the estimated 0.2% increase. BOE official Cunliffe has a speech coming up.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc was still mostly weaker against its peers as traders started looking to the tax reform referendum later this month. This could mean losses of revenue and jobs in the Swiss economy if passed so further economic weakness is eyed. SNB foreign currency reserves were mostly unchanged so there has been no evidence of forex intervention.
[B]JPY[/B]
The Japanese yen paused from its recent rallies as a bit of risk appetite returned to the US markets. Medium-tier reports such as the current account balance turned out weaker than expected and the Economy Watchers Sentiment index is still up for release.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls rallied and reversed even after New Zealand reported a 1.3% gain in dairy prices during its latest auction. The US EIA projected lower production this year but increased its output estimate for 2018 while reducing the demand forecast. Canada’s reports were all in the red, as the trade balance printed a smaller surplus while the Ivey PMI showed a steeper drop than expected. The RBNZ decision is coming up next and no changes in interest rates are expected.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar had another mixed performance as there were no major reports to provide any direction. Besides, US President Trump can’t seem to make up his mind if he wants a strong or weak dollar. Initial jobless claims and final wholesale inventories are up for release today but price action could hinge mostly on market sentiment.
[B]EUR
[/B]
The euro was in a weak spot against most of its peers as traders continued to price in the implications of Draghi’s downbeat views on monetary policy. There were no major reports out of the euro zone yesterday while today has the trade balance due. A wider surplus of 23.2 billion EUR is eyed.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound carried on with its climb for another day, boosted by the hawkish remarks from BOE official Forbes who said that higher inflation expectations could lead the central bank to consider hiking rates. There are no major reports due from the UK today so sterling could continue to benefit from this view unless other headlines pop up. BOE Governor Carney has a speech due.
[B]
CHF[/B]
The franc regained a bit of ground against its forex counterparts even though there were no major reports from the Swiss economy. The Swiss jobless rate is due today and no changes to the 3.3% reading is expected so market sentiment and currency-specific reports could push franc pairs around.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen resumed its rally against its higher-yielding rivals as risk aversion was present in the markets. Data from Japan came in mostly stronger than expected, led by the 6.7% jump in core machinery orders. Preliminary machine tool orders data is due next and another strong read could mean more support for the yen.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The Loonie was under some selling pressure on talks of a new border tax on Canadian imports to the US and after the US crude oil inventories report showed a larger buildup in stockpiles. The RBNZ kept rates on hold at 1.75% as expected but signaled some scope for cuts as they pushed their 2% inflation target date a couple of quarters later. RBA Governor Lowe has a speech coming up.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
hey, start from the news release, i see and thoughts that NZD may rise against USD and trade bullish against USD. But results is - 100 pips why this happens may you answer me. Thanks for thread
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar strengthened across the board on Trump’s promise to announce a “phenomenal” tax plan in the coming weeks. Equity indices closed at record highs, buoyed by a pickup in aviation shares on promises of reform in that industry as well. Initial jobless claims turned out better than expected at 234K versus 249K, reflecting strong hiring momentum, while final wholesale inventories came in line with expectations of a 1.0% increase.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro caved to dollar strength and was also weaker against the commodity currencies. German trade balance turned out weaker than expected at a smaller surplus of 18.4 billion EUR versus the estimated 23.2 billion EUR figure. French and Italian industrial production numbers are due today, along with the French preliminary non-farm payrolls figure.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound gave up ground to the dollar but managed to hold on to some of its recent gains against the rest of its peers. There were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday while today has manufacturing and industrial production numbers due. Manufacturing production could post a 0.3% uptick while industrial production could indicate a 0.2% decline.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc was weaker across the board as traders transferred some of their safe-haven holdings to the dollar. Also, market watchers are wary of the tax reform referendum in Switzerland and what it could mean for jobs and the economy. The Swiss jobless rate was unchanged at 3.3% and there are no reports due today.
[B]JPY
[/B]
The Japanese yen was a big loser in recent sessions as traders renewed their long dollar positions. Apart from that, traders are wary of currency manipulation being discussed by Trump and Abe during their meeting today. Japan’s tertiary industry activity index is due next and a 0.1% decline is eyed.
[B]Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The Kiwi was off to a weak start due to the RBNZ’s slightly dovish tone during their policy statement while the rest of the comdoll gang tried to put up a fight against USD strength. Canada’s jobs report is due today and a 10.1K drop in hiring is eyed while the jobless rate could hold steady at 6.9%. China’s trade balance is due next and a strong read could reinforce comdoll gains.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar held on to its recent gains as traders are hopeful that Trump can announce details on his tax reform plan soon. Economic data from the US was actually weaker than expected on Friday, as the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index fell from 98.5 to 95.7, worse than the estimated drop to 97.9. There are no major reports due from the US economy today.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro was mostly weaker against its peers after medium-tier data came in mixed. French industrial production slid 0.9% versus the estimated 0.6% dip while preliminary non-farm payrolls improved by 0.4% versus 0.3%. Italian industrial production was also stronger than expected at 1.4%. Only the German wholesale price index is due today.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound had a mixed performance as it slid to the comdolls and dollar but advanced against the yen. UK manufacturing production turned out stronger than expected with a 2.1% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick while industrial production rose 1.1% instead of falling by 0.2%. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc was weaker against most of its peers, except to the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday as the selloff was inspired by risk appetite and there are no reports due today. This suggests that market sentiment could still be the main driver of franc price action.
[B]JPY[/B]
The yen was one of the weaker performers at the end of the week as traders were uneasy ahead of the meeting between Trump and Abe. Also, tertiary industry production fell by 0.4% versus the projected 0.1% dip. Over the weekend, the preliminary GDP reading came in below expectations with a 0.2% expansion versus the projected 0.3% growth figure.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls gave up ground to the dollar but managed to hold on to their gains against the yen and European currencies. Risk appetite was present as China reported a stronger than expected trade surplus of 355 billion CNY versus the estimated 295 billion CNY figure. Jobs data from Canada also turned out stronger than expected, with the economy adding 48.3K jobs in January instead of shedding 10.1K positions. New Zealand’s food price index is due next.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way[/I]
USD
The US dollar had a mixed performance as it consolidated to the yen but advanced to the euro. There were no major reports out of the US economy yesterday but investors seemed to gain some assurance after Trump’s meeting with Trudeau. Traders continue to wait on Trump’s tax reform plans and Fed head Yellen’s upcoming speech could steal the spotlight, putting the focus back on Fed policy biases.
EUR
The euro was mostly weaker across the board after IMF head Lagarde noted that they won’t be cutting special deals for Greece. The euro zone nation is trying to secure the next tranche of bailout funds but this hinges on whether or not the IMF judges that they have made progress in terms of economic and fiscal reform. Preliminary GDP readings from top euro zone nations are due today, along with the German ZEW economic sentiment figure. Strong readings could provide some support for the shared currency.
GBP
The pound held on to most of its recent gains as traders seem to be pricing in positive outcomes for this week’s set of data. UK CPI is due today and the headline reading is slated to rise from 1.6% to 1.9%, underscoring BOE official Forbes’ view that a rate hike might be needed soon. Core CPI is expected to advance from 1.6% to 1.7%.
CHF
The franc was in a weak spot against its peers, except against the euro. Over the weekend, Switzerland rejected the tax reform plan that could’ve wound up costing the economy companies and jobs. Swiss PPI and CPI are due today, with the former expected to show a 0.3% increase and the latter likely to print a 0.1% drop.
JPY
The yen gave up ground against the comdolls but advanced against the euro. Over the weekend, Japan’s preliminary GDP reading missed expectations with a 0.2% uptick versus the projected 0.3% expansion. The revised industrial production report is due today but no changes to the 0.5% reading are eyed.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls held on to most of their recent gains, thanks to upbeat data from China. Headline CPI climbed from 2.1% to 2.5% versus the 2.4% consensus while the PPI jumped from 5.5% to 6.9% versus the 6.6% consensus. New Zealand’s food price index rebounded by 2.8% while Australia’s NAB business confidence index climbed from 6 to 10. Canadian PM Trudeau sounded positive about trade relations after his meeting with Trump, as both countries agreed to strengthen energy cooperation.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar got a boost from Fed Chairperson Yellen’s testimony, as she confirmed that a rate hike is possible in their upcoming meetings. Traders took this to mean in their March statement since this comes with a press conference. Yellen downplayed the recent slowdown in average hourly earnings by saying that the labor market is tight enough to keep upside pressure on wages. Other Fed officials acknowledged that hiking rates sooner rather than later would be prudent while PPI reports printed strong results. Another testimony from Yellen is due today, along with US retail sales figures.
EUR
The euro was weaker across the board on revived Greek debt concerns, as the country is having trouble getting the green light from the IMF when it comes to getting the next tranche of bailout funds. Preliminary GDP readings from the euro zone also turned out weaker than expected, along with the German ZEW economic sentiment index which fell from 16.6 to 10.4. Only the euro zone trade balance is up for release today.
GBP
The pound managed to hold its ground even though CPI readings came in slightly below expectations. The headline figure rose from 1.6% to 1.8% versus the estimated 1.9% reading while the core figure was unchanged at 1.6%. Jobs data is due today and the claimant count change could show a 1.1K rise in joblessness while the average earnings index could hold steady at 2.8%.
CHF
The franc remained under selling pressure as the situation in the euro zone seems to be worsening, keeping the SNB on the lookout for ECB easing that might warrant currency intervention. Swiss PPI and CPI came in better than expected, with the former showing a 0.4% increase in producer prices and the latter showing a flat reading. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen was mostly weaker as bond yields favored the dollar on stronger Fed rate hike expectations. Japan’s industrial production figure was upgraded from 0.5% to 0.7%. There are no reports due from Japan today so movements in bond yields and changes in market sentiment could push yen pairs around.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to hold on to their recent gains and go for more, boosted by stronger than expected CPI readings from China and the general pickup in risk appetite. Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment index posted a 2.3% improvement while new motor vehicle sales grew 0.6%. There are no major reports due from the comdolls so they might keep relying on market sentiment.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar gave back some of its recent gains when Fed head Yellen sounded less upbeat in her second testimony. Traders focused on her remarks about weak business investment and slow productivity, which is dampening wage growth and inflationary pressures. Data from the US, namely retail sales and CPI, all came in stronger than expected while industrial production chalked up a surprise 0.3% drop versus the estimated 0.1% uptick. US building permits and housing starts, along with the Philly Fed index, are due today.
EUR
The euro took advantage of dollar weakness but remained mostly weaker against its other rivals. Euro zone trade balance printed a larger than expected surplus of 24.5 billion EUR versus the estimated 22.5 billion EUR figure and the earlier 22.2 billion EUR surplus. ECB meeting minutes are up for release today and dovish remarks from policymakers could mean more weakness for the shared currency.
GBP
The pound had a mixed performance even with stronger than expected jobs data. Claimant count fell 42.4K instead of increasing by 1.1K in January, indicating employment growth, but the average earnings index slowed from 2.8% to 2.6% to reflect weak wage growth. This led analysts to speculate on weaker retail sales as wages might have trouble keeping up with gains in price levels. There are no reports due form the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc continued to slide lower across the board even though there were no reports from Switzerland yesterday. Uncertainties in Europe and the potential slowdown in the euro zone are keeping traders wary of additional easing or forex intervention from the SNB. There are still no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen was able to regain ground, thanks to the weakness in the US dollar yesterday. There were no reports out from Japan yesterday while today has BOJ Governor Kuroda’s testimony. The central bank head spoke of the lower risk of another global financial crisis but noted that bank profits have fallen.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie got a strong boost from upbeat jobs data, as the economy added 13.5K versus 9.7K jobs in January, bringing the jobless rate down from 5.8% to 5.7%. To top it off, the December report was upgraded to show a 16.3K rise in hiring from the initially reported 13.5K pickup. New Zealand quarterly retail sales data is due next and analysts are expecting to see a 1.1% gain from the headline figure and a 0.9% rise from the core reading.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was still mostly weaker against its peers but it managed to advance against commodity currencies. Data came in stronger than expected but bulls seemed disappointed to find out that Trump still hasn’t shared much detail on tax reform. Only the CB leading index is due today and another 0.5% uptick is eyed, but the dollar could continue to take its cues from political headlines.
EUR
The euro was able to get back on its feet when reports turned out better than expected. The Italian trade balance printed a larger than expected surplus while the ECB minutes didn’t contain too many dovish surprises. Euro zone current account balance is due today and a smaller deficit of 28.7 billion EUR compared to the earlier 36.1 billion EUR is eyed.
GBP
The pound is in a weak spot ahead of today’s UK retail sales release as traders are predicting that the combination of slow wage growth and higher price levels put a dent on spending. Still, the consensus is for a 1.0% rebound from the earlier 1.9% decline but downbeat results could signal that Brexit issues are starting to take their toll on the economy.
CHF
The franc took advantage of dollar weakness and managed to rebound against its other rivals as well. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so the franc could take its cue from euro zone updates and overall market sentiment.
JPY
The Japanese yen had a mixed performance as it advanced to the dollar and commodity currencies but moved sideways against the euro. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment could be the main driving factor.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie got a bit of a boost from strong headline jobs figures as the economy added 13.5K jobs in January versus the projected 9.7K figure while the jobless rate ticked down from 5.8% to 5.7%. However, underlying components indicated that the gains were mostly from part-time hiring. In New Zealand, quarterly retail sales figures missed their marks as the headline reading was up 0.8% versus 1.1% while the core figure increased 0.6% versus 0.9%. Canadian foreign securities purchases data is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[B]USD[/B]
The US dollar was mostly stronger on Friday but it gave up ground to the Japanese yen. US CB leading index climbed 0.6% versus the 0.5% forecast and the earlier reading. There are no reports due from the US economy today so low liquidity conditions could be expected unless there are any major catalysts from the headlines.
[B]EUR[/B]
The euro was in a weak spot against its peers as traders paid closer attention to political risks from Italy and Greece’s resurfacing debt problems. Euro zone current account balance beat expectations with a 31 billion EUR surplus compared to the 28.7 billion EUR estimate. German PPI is due today and a 0.3% uptick is eyed, higher than the previous 0.4% increase in price levels.
[B]GBP[/B]
The pound was also in a weak spot when the UK retail sales report came in weaker than expected with a 0.3% drop in consumer spending compared to the estimated 1.0% growth. This reveals that the consumer sector is already reeling from the surge in price levels and the slow growth in wages. UK Rightmove HPI is due today and a 2.0% increase in house prices is eyed.
[B]CHF[/B]
The franc was mostly weaker against its peers but it managed to advance against the euro. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and none are due today so the franc could move to the tune of market sentiment for the rest of the day.
[B]JPY[/B]
The Japanese yen was one of the bigger winners of the previous trading sessions, supported by a bit of risk aversion stemming from geopolitical risks. Over the weekend, Japan printed a weaker than expected trade surplus of 0.16T JPY compared to the estimated 0.28T JPY figure and the earlier 0.33T JPY surplus.
[B]
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)[/B]
The comdolls were no match to dollar and yen strength last Friday but they did manage to chalk up wins against the European currencies. Canada’s foreign securities purchases came in below expectations, signaling weaker demand for the Loonie. Over the weekend, New Zealand’s quarterly PPI input reading showed a 1.0% increase while the output component printed a larger than expected 1.5% gain.
[I]By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
[/I]
USD
The US dollar was able to rake in some gains even though traders were out on a Presidents’ Day holiday yesterday. Futures are pointing to a strong open today and stocks could sustain their gains if earnings come in strong and Trump drops more hints about his tax reform plan. FOMC members Kashkari and Harker have testimonies lined up today.
EUR
The euro continued to chalk up losses against its peers as geopolitical risks in France and debt troubles in Greece and Italy are weighing on the shared currency. Euro zone consumer confidence dipped from -5 to -6 to reflect increased pessimism. Flash manufacturing and services PMI readings are due from Germany and France today.
GBP
The pound was still under a bit of selling pressure to the dollar but it managed to advance against most of its other counterparts as the first day of the Brexit debates in the House of Lords went by without any major glitches. These talks could continue to keep the pound in consolidation until the outcome is announced this week or the next. The BOE Inflation Report hearings are scheduled today.
CHF
The franc was also in a weak spot, thanks to all the troubles weighing on Europe these days. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the trade balance lined up. A wider surplus of 3.03 billion CHF is eyed, compared to the earlier 2.72 billion CHF.
JPY
The yen was able to chalk up some gains against the European currencies but was mostly weaker to the dollar and comdolls. The Japanese flash manufacturing PMI jumped from 52.7 to 53.5 instead of falling to 52.1 to reflect a faster pace of growth. The all industries activity index is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie resumed its rally after the RBA minutes also turned out less dovish than expected. Canadian wholesale sales were up 0.7% versus the 0.4% forecast, also shoring up some gains for the Loonie as well. New Zealand will be holding its Global Dairy Trade auction in the next Asian session and another gain in prices could boost the Kiwi.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was mostly stuck in consolidation against its peers as downbeat medium-tier data cast doubts on a March rate hike. The Markit flash manufacturing PMI fell from 55.0 to 54.3 versus the 54.7 consensus while the services PMI slid from 55.6 to 53.9 instead of improving to the projected 55.8 figure. FOMC member Harker confirmed his view that three rate hikes are possible this year and that one may be underway in March, but he also cautioned that data misses could discourage him to vote for tightening. US existing home sales and the FOMC minutes are lined up today.
EUR
The euro failed to benefit from mostly stronger than expected flash manufacturing and services PMIs from Germany and France, as the shared currency was dragged lower by headlines. Political troubles are still looming over France and Italy while Greece is encountering roadblocks to securing its next tranche of bailout funds. German IFO business climate data is due next, along with final CPI readings.
GBP
The pound was able to put up a good fight against its peers as the discussions on the Brexit plans in the House of Lords seem to have gone by smoothly so far. Officials will continue to debate these plans and might announce their decision next week so pound traders remain on edge. On the data front, the public sector net borrowing report showed a larger 9.8 billion GBP deficit. The UK second estimate GDP is due today and no revisions to the 0.6% growth figure are eyed.
CHF
The franc remained under selling pressure, thanks to the uncertainties in the euro zone. Swiss trade balance was stronger than expected at a surplus of 4.73 billion CHF versus the projected 3.03 billion CHF figure. Credit Suisse economic expectations data are up for release today.
JPY
The yen had a mixed performance as it functioned mostly as a counter currency and reacted to country-specific events. Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI printed a stronger than expected read while its all industries activity index indicated a slightly larger 0.3% fall. There are no reports due from Japan today so market sentiment could stay in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were mostly stronger against their peers, even after New Zealand reported a 3.9% fall in dairy prices during the latest GDT auction. Australian construction work done sank 0.2% instead of rising by 0.5% in Q4 while the wage price index came in line with expectations of a 0.5% gain. Canadian retail sales figures are due next, with the headline figure projected to post a 0.1% uptick and the core figure expected to show a 0.8% gain.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar was off to a good start but wound up retreating when the FOMC minutes were released. Even though policymakers judged that a rate hike is appropriate “fairly soon” they did specify that this hinges on whether or not incoming jobs and inflation reports turn out strong or at least in line with their expectations. Some policymakers also warned about the risks of a higher dollar. Initial jobless claims and a speech by FOMC member Kaplan are lined up today.
EUR
The euro took a sharp tumble at the start of the European session as debt concerns in Greece and Italy weighed on sentiment. However, the shared currency enjoyed a strong bounce when headlines suggested that Le Pen would be facing stiff competition from newcomer Macron who gained support of popular French politician Bayrou. The German IFO business climate index also beat expectations by rising from 109.9 to 111.0 instead of dipping to 109.6. Euro zone final GDP and German GfK consumer climate are due next.
GBP
The pound was dragged lower by the rest of its European peers but managed to hold some ground thanks to an upward revision in its preliminary GDP from 0.5% to 0.7%. However, preliminary business investment tanked 1% versus the projected flat reading. Only the CBI realized sales index is due today and traders could put their attention back to the Brexit discussions in the House of Lords.
CHF
The franc was also reacting to uncertainties in the European region as it performed poorly against most of its peers. The Credit Suisse economic expectations index rose from 18.5 to 19.4 to indicate an improvement in outlook. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen enjoyed safe-haven flows from the European currencies and was also able to catch some gains versus the dollar. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday but the currency seems to be taking advantage of anti-dollar action in the midst of risk aversion.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Canadian retail sales turned out much weaker than expected as the headline figure printed a 0.5% drop instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick while the core reading showed a 0.3% decline instead of the estimated 0.8% gain. Australia’s private capital expenditure report showed a surprise 2.1% drop versus the projected 0.4% dip. Crude oil inventories are due next and a large buildup could be bearish for the Loonie.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar chalked up another day of losses as traders are starting to get weary of waiting for Trump’s “phenomenal” tax reform announcement. According to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, it will take until 2018 or so before the impact of the policy changes kick in and GDP growth could reach 3% at best, not the 4% expansion promised during the election campaign. New home sales and revised UoM consumer sentiment data are due today.
EUR
The euro made a bit of a rebound against its peers as more polls indicated that Macron could overtake Le Pen in the French elections. This eases fears of a Frexit and further instability in the region. Germany’s final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.4% as expected but the GfK consumer climate index fell from 10.2 to 10.0 instead of improving to 10.3. There are no reports due from the euro zone today.
GBP
The pound broke higher against most of its forex counterparts when news of another potential Scottish referendum broke out. Keep in mind that Scotland voted to stay in the EU during the referendum last year but has previously held a national vote whether or not to stay in the UK. With that, renewed uncertainty in the region could push the pound back down, although price action also hinges on the discussions in the House of Lords.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as it advanced to the euro, consolidated to the pound, and gave up ground against most of its other peers. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday and none are due today so market sentiment and country-specific updates could push franc pairs around.
JPY
The Japanese yen was unable to establish a clear direction in recent trading as it also reacted mostly to country-specific catalysts. There are still no reports due from Japan today so risk sentiment could be the main driving force for yen pairs.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie encountered some headwinds from weaker than expected private capital expenditure data and a bit of jawboning from RBA head Lowe. US crude oil inventories posted a smaller than expected increase of 0.6 million barrels in stockpiles so the Loonie stayed supported. Canadian CPI numbers are due today, with the headline figure slated to show a 0.3% gain and the core figure to post a 0.1% downtick.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
USD
The US dollar regained some ground against its peers on Friday as traders booked profits off their short positions earlier in the week. Besides, expectations for Trump’s tax plan announcement are running high once more since he is scheduled to have a speech on Tuesday. US durable goods orders and pending home sales data are due today, along with a speech by FOMC member Kaplan.
EUR
The euro got back on its feet against the pound and comdolls but was still much weaker to the Japanese yen. There were no reports released from the euro zone on Friday while today has Spanish flash CPI and M3 money supply figures due. Reports indicating that Le Pen could lose the elections might also drive the shared currency higher on lower chances of a Frexit.
GBP
The pound had a volatile run on reports that Scotland would pursue another referendum on their membership in the UK. Recall that this vote already happened in the past and that Scotland actually voted to stay in the EU in last year’s referendum. Over the weekend, PM May mentioned that they would move to end the free movement of EU migrants to the UK by March.
CHF
The franc was still in a weak spot against most of its peers as political troubles in the EU continue to keep traders on edge for potential SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday while today has a speech by SNB member Zurburgg.
JPY
The yen was the big winner for the day as the pickup in risk aversion worked out to its benefit. There were no reports out of Japan recently while the next Asian session has preliminary industrial production and retail sales due. The latter could show a faster pickup of 1.0% compared to the earlier 0.7% uptick while the former could print a slower 0.4% gain.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls showed some weakness on Friday as risk aversion came back into play. Canada’s CPI readings came in better than expected with a 0.9% increase in the headline figure and a 0.5% uptick for the core reading. In Australia, company operating profits surged 20.1% versus the projected 8% gain for Q4. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next and a 3 million NZD deficit is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way