Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 06, 2017)
USD
The US dollar managed to stay afloat despite mostly downbeat medium-tier data. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI slid from 57.5 to 56.5, lower than the projected drop to 57.1. The final services PMI by Markit was downgraded from 54.0 to 53.6 to reflect a weaker pace of expansion as well. Only the JOLTS job openings report is due from the US today.
EUR
The euro was in a weak spot against its peers as final services PMI weren’t so upbeat. Most euro zone banks were also closed in observance of Whit Monday. Euro zone retail PMI and Sentix investor confidence data are due today and another round of downbeat results could mean more euro weakness.
GBP
The pound tossed and turned as traders kept close tabs on polls leading up to the elections on June 8. The latest batch showed a bit of a higher lead for the Conservatives, which could mean more political stability and a stronger negotiating front during the Brexit talks. UK services PMI was weaker than expected as it fell from 55.8 to 53.8 versus the 55.1 consensus.
CHF
The franc was still in a weak spot as traders hesitated to put funds in Europe and for fear of SNB intervention. Swiss banks were also closed on Whit Monday so there were no reports out of Switzerland then. There are also no reports due today so franc price action could hinge on market sentiment.
JPY
The yen was able to hold on to most of its gains even as US bond yields recovered. There were no reports released from Japan at the start of the week while today has the average cash earnings figure. A 0.3% uptick is eyed, which would be an improvement over the earlier flat reading.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Crude oil was under some selling pressure as the rift in the Middle East threatens to make the OPEC deal more challenging to implement. Data from Australia has been mixed, with the AIG services index falling and the MI inflation gauge printing a weaker reading as well. The RBA statement is coming up next and no rate changes are eyed, but the central bank could continue to express caution about employment and inflation. Canada’s Ivey PMI and New Zealand’s GDT auction are lined up next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 07, 2017)
USD
The US dollar was unable to benefit from stronger than expected JOLTS job openings data as traders are feeling uneasy ahead of Comey’s testimony on Thursday. This could have repercussions on the pace of fiscal reforms or if any are set to be implemented at all. Only the US consumer credit report is lined up today.
EUR
The euro was under a bit of selling pressure against the yen and comdolls but it managed to advance versus the dollar and pound. Euro zone retail PMI fell from 52.7 to 52.0 but the Sentix investor confidence index improved from 27.4 to 28.4, outpacing the consensus at 27.6. German factory orders and Italian retail sales are due today.
GBP
The pound struggled to stay afloat as traders are keeping extra close tabs on opinion polls leading up to the actual elections later this week. The UK BRC retail sales monitor also printed a 0.4% dip after showing a strong 5.6% surge last time. UK Halifax HPI is due next and a 0.2% fall is eyed.
CHF
The franc had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday while today has the SNB foreign currency reserves on tap. A significant increase over the earlier 696 billion CHF level could be evidence of intervention, especially since Chairman Jordan has jawboned heavily in the past couple of weeks.
JPY
The yen was the strongest performer as it benefitted from risk-off moves and anti-dollar sentiment. News that China will be buying US bonds drove prices higher and yields lower, which then lifted demand for the yen. Average cash earnings also turned out stronger than expected with a 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. Leading indicators is due today and a fall from 105.5% to 104.4% is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi was the leader of the gang as it got a healthy boost from a 3.2% gain in ANZ commodity prices and another increase from the GDT auction. Dairy prices are up 0.6%, slower than the earlier gain but still enough to bring prices up by their third month in a row. The RBA kept rates on hold as expected and brushed off the Q1 slowdown. Australian GDP and US crude oil inventories data are due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 08, 2017)
USD
The dollar regained some ground when the text of Comey’s opening statement was released on the Senate website. It hinted that the former FBI head won’t be divulging evidence of wrongdoing on Trump’s part when it comes to sharing intelligence information on Russian officials. US consumer credit fell sharply to $8.9 billion to indicate a possible slowdown in spending for April.
EUR
The euro tanked when rumors about the ECB cutting its inflation outlook hit the newswires. This follows the downbeat flash CPI readings released late last week. German factory orders also printed a weaker than expected 2.1% slump instead of the projected 0.2% dip. No actual policy changes are expected from the ECB today but traders are likely to hunt for policy clues from Draghi’s testimony and press conference.
GBP
The pound was able to recover slightly on more polls hinting that the Conservatives could maintain their lead in the elections. Halifax HPI also came in stronger than expected with a 0.4% gain versus the projected 0.2% drop. The UK parliamentary elections is coming up next and a majority for the Tories could restore political stability in the country.
CHF
The franc gave up some ground to most of its peers as risk appetite returned to the markets. The SNB foreign currency reserves reading dipped from 697B CHF to 694B CHF to show no evidence of intervention just yet. Swiss jobless rate is due next and no change from the 3.3% reading is eyed.
JPY
The yen was one of the weakest performers for the day as it gave up ground on risk appetite. Japan’s leading indicators came in slightly better than expected at 104.5% versus the projected 104.4% reading, down from the earlier 105.5% figure. The final GDP reading is due next and a small upgrade from 0.5% to 0.6% is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie got a strong boost from a better than expected 0.3% GDP reading versus the projected 0.2% expansion. The Loonie was also lagging behind due to a surprise fall in Canada’s building permits and a buildup in US crude oil stockpiles of 3.3 million barrels. The Australian trade balance is due next and a smaller surplus of 1.91 billion AUD is expected. China is also set to print its trade balance and might report a wider surplus of 336 billion CNY.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 09, 2017)
USD
The US dollar steadied throughout the day as traders didn’t see any surprises from the Comey testimony. Economic data was in line with estimates as the initial jobless claims reading came in at 245K, down from the earlier 255K figure. Only the final wholesale inventories report is due from the US today.
EUR
The euro gave up some ground as the ECB downgraded inflation forecasts as expected. However, losses were limited since Draghi gave a few upbeat remarks during the presser. He clarified that normalization has not been discussed but that they’re not looking to cut anytime soon unless things get worse. French industrial production and the Italian quarterly unemployment rate are due next.
GBP
The pound was slightly weaker for the day as traders are feeling the jitters during the UK elections. Early polls are still hinting at a narrow lead for the Conservatives but that they could eventually win the majority. UK manufacturing production data is due next and a 0.8% rebound over the earlier 0.6% drop is eyed. Industrial production is slated to recover by 0.7%.
CHF
The franc had a mixed run as it acted as safe-haven against most of its rivals but caved to dollar and Kiwi strength. Data from Switzerland came in better than expected as the jobless rate improved to 3.2% while CPI ticked 0.2% higher versus the projected flat reading. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen gave up some ground as traders reestablished their long dollar positions on the lack of surprises during Comey’s testimony. Japan’s final GDP reading was downgraded from 0.5% to 0.3% instead of being upgraded to the 0.6% forecast. Tertiary industry activity data is due next and a 0.5% rebound is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie was able to hold on to its gains even with downbeat trade data from Australia and China. Australia’s surplus narrowed from 3.17B AUD to 0.56B AUD versus the 1.91B forecast as exports slipped 8%. China’s trade surplus widened from 262B CNY to 282B CNY versus the projected rise to 336B CNY. Australian home loans and Chinese inflation numbers are lined up next. Canada is also set to release its jobs report and might show a gain of 11.5K in hiring.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 12, 2017)
USD
The US dollar regained some ground against its peers as risk aversion kicked in after the UK elections. There were no major reports out of the US on Friday and only the Fed budget balance is due next. Dollar demand also got an extra boost after Comey’s testimony did not have any damning evidence for Trump.
EUR
The euro trailed the pound in losing ground to most of its counterparts after the UK snap elections led to a hung parliament. Medium-tier data from the region also missed expectations while today only has the Italian industrial production data on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.2% uptick.
GBP
The pound sold off sharply after the UK snap elections resulted to a hung parliament. Prime Minister May is now making moves to hold on to office and is also seeking a coalition with other political parties. There are no reports due from the pound today but the post-election selloff could resume or traders could price in expectations for the top-tier data due this week.
CHF
The franc took in some gains after the pound tanked during the UK elections. There were no reports out of Switzerland on Friday and none are due today so market sentiment could stay in play.
JPY
The yen also took advantage of the rally in safe-havens during the aftermath of the UK elections. Data from Japan was stronger than expected as tertiary industry activity rose by 1.2% versus the projected 0.5% uptick. Core machinery orders, PPI, and preliminary machine tool orders data are due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls held on to their gains even though a bit of risk aversion came into play on Friday. Canada added 54.5K jobs in May versus the projected 11.5K increase. Australian banks are closed for the holiday today and there are no major reports due.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (June 13, 2017)
USD
The dollar took in some losses against its rivals as the tech sector tumble on Wall Street dragged sentiment down. There were no major reports out of the US on Monday while today has the PPI and NFIB Small Business index. Headline PPI could stay flat while core PPI could have a 0.2% uptick.
EUR
The euro managed to hold its ground as the first round of French parliamentary elections yielded a lot of support for Macron’s political party. However, Italian industrial production was weaker than expected with a 0.4% drop instead of the projected 0.2% uptick. German ZEW economic sentiment index is due today and a rise from 20.6 to 21.6 is eyed.
GBP
The pound carried on with its slide from after the elections last week as there still has been no political clarity in the UK. PM May apologized to lawmakers who lost their seats in the elections and said that it is up to the party whether or not she can keep her job. UK CPI is due next and no change to the 2.7% headline figure is eyed.
CHF
The franc consolidated against most of its peers as European market sentiment was weak but there was some degree of risk aversion. There were no reports out of Switzerland yesterday and none are due today so risk flows could determine franc direction, along with pricing in of SNB expectations.
JPY
The yen was one of the big winners for the day as dollar weakness and risk-off moves favored the safe-haven currency. Data from Japan was mixed as core machinery orders slid 3.1% while PPI was close to consensus at a 2.1% increase. The BSI manufacturing index is due next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie got a big boost from hawkish remarks by BOC member Wilkins who said that the central bank might need to evaluate whether all of stimulus is still needed or not. Australia’s NAB business confidence index is due next and New Zealand will print its current account balance in the next Asian session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 14, 2017)
USD
The dollar was able to hold its ground as traders are pricing in a relatively upbeat FOMC statement. A rate hike of 0.25% is widely expected but the Fed might hint that they could slow down their pace of tightening later this year. Also, the focus could be on balance sheet adjustments, which would lessen the need to hike interest rates soon. US CPI and retail sales are also due.
EUR
The euro had a mixed run as returned most of its intraday gains to commodity currencies. Data from the region was downbeat, with German WPI down 0.7% instead of gaining 0.2% and the ZEW economic sentiment index dropping from 20.6 to 18.6 instead of improving to the 21.6 consensus. German final CPI and euro zone industrial production are due next.
GBP
The pound had a boost from stronger than expected UK CPI, spurring expectations of an upbeat BOE statement. Headline inflation rose from 2.7% to 2.9% while core CPI advanced from 2.4% to 2.6% instead of dipping to 2.3%. There have also been talks of a coalition formed between the Tories and DUP. Jobs data is due next and claimants could come in at 12.5K while the average earnings index could hold steady at 2.4%.
CHF
The franc was able to score some wins as risk sentiment improved in Europe. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy and none are due today so market sentiment could be the main driver of price action.
JPY
The yen gave up some ground as risk appetite improved and data from Japan turned out weaker than expected. The BSI manufacturing index fell from +1.1 to -2.9 instead of improving to the projected +1.5 figure. The revised industrial production report is due next and an upgrade from 4.0% to 4.1% is expected.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Aussie was under some selling pressure after iron ore prices tumbled again but it recovered as risk sentiment improved later in the day. The Loonie continued to advance against its peers on hawkish remarks from BOC officials and the lack of negative reports in the oil market. Chinese industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment are due next. New Zealand will release its GDP in the next Asian session.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 15, 2017)
USD
The US dollar took a huge hit after economic reports turned out weaker than expected. Headline retail sales fell 0.3% instead of posting the projected 0.1% uptick while the core reading also showed a 0.3% drop. Headline CPI is down 0.1% versus expectations of a 0.2% gain. The FOMC is still coming up next and additional volatility is eyed.
EUR
The euro weakened against most of its counterparts, except for the US dollar, as medium-tier data from Germany fell short of estimates. The final CPI reading was unchanged at -0.2% instead of being upgraded to the 0.5% consensus while the ZEW economic index also turned out below expectations. Employment change ticked up by a slightly better than expected 0.4% while industrial production advanced 0.5% as expected.
GBP
The pound resumed its drop to its peers on mixed jobs data. The claimant count change came in at 7.3K, lower than the projected 12.5K increase in hiring, but the previous reading was revised to show a larger 22K rise in joblessness. The average earnings index fell to 2.1% instead of landing at 2.4% while the earlier figure was downgraded to 2.4%. The BOE decision is due next and traders are keen to see whether the central bank will attempt to reassure the public or not.
CHF
The franc had a mixed run leading up to the SNB decision this week as market sentiment and currency-specific events seemed to be the bigger drivers of price action. No actual rate changes are expected but strong jawboning could mean franc weakness as traders grow wary of intervention.
JPY
The yen took back ground against the dollar even though the industrial production figure was unchanged at 4.0% instead of being upgraded to the 4.1% consensus. There are no reports due from Japan today so traders could hold out for the BOJ decision on Friday.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie seemed unfazed by weaker oil prices as traders continued to buy up the Canadian currency on tightening expectations. Australia reported a weaker Westpac consumer sentiment index at -1.8% versus the earlier -1.1% reading while data from China came in closely in line with estimates. Industrial production stood at 6.5% instead of dipping to 6.4% while fixed asset investment slowed from 8.9% to 8.6%. New Zealand’s GDP data is due next and a 0.7% expansion is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 16, 2017)
USD
The US dollar got a boost from a relatively upbeat FOMC statement even though CPI and retail sales figures fell short of estimates prior to the announcement. The Fed reiterated its plan to hike rates three times this year and Yellen even hinted that tightening could carry on until 2018. More details on their balance sheet reinvestment plans were also shared while growth and jobs forecasts were upgraded. Building permits, housing starts, and UoM consumer sentiment data are due today.
EUR
The euro gave back some of its recent gains when medium-tier reports from its top economies turned out weaker than expected. French final CPI was flat while the trade surplus narrowed to 19.6 billion EUR instead of widening to 22.4 billion EUR. Final CPI readings are due today and downgrades could mean more weakness for the shared currency.
GBP
The pound popped higher after the BOE statement surprised with a 3-5 vote to keep rates on hold. A couple of hawkish members joined Forbes in calling for tightening as rising inflationary pressures needed to be kept in check. Prior to this, UK retail sales posted a surprise 1.2% slump as consumers are having trouble keeping up with higher prices of goods. There are no major reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker against its peers after the SNB decision as policymakers highlighted the need to keep the franc weak. Their statement also noted that they’re willing to intervene in the market since the currency is significantly overvalued. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today.
JPY
The yen gave up ground as traders moved their holdings back to the dollar after the FOMC decision. The BOJ statement is coming up next and jawboning from this central bank could reinforce yen weakness. Other than that, market sentiment and US bond yields could continue to influence yen price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi gave up some ground to its peers when the Q1 GDP missed expectations of a 0.7% growth figure and came in a 0.5%. In Australia, the employment change reading beat forecasts at 9.7K and came in at 42K while the unemployment rate improved from 5.7% to 5.5%. There are no other major reports lined up from the comdoll economies from here.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 19, 2017)
USD
The dollar had a mixed round as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events. US data was all weaker than expected last week, casting some doubt on the Fed’s ability to hike rates again. Building permits and housing starts both fell short of estimates while the preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index reflected a sharper than expected drop in optimism. There are no reports due from the US economy today but FOMC member Dudley has a speech scheduled.
EUR
The euro made a bit of a bounce against some of its peers as profit-taking came into play at the end of the week. There were no changes to the final CPI readings, although it’s worth noting that these were weaker than the earlier figures. There are no major reports due from the euro zone economy today.
GBP
The pound managed to hold on to most of its gains after last week’s hawkish BOE statement. However, the currency retreated against some of its counterparts on profit-taking ahead of this week’s Brexit talks. There were no reports out of the UK on Friday and none are due today, so Brexit-related headlines could push pound pairs around.
CHF
The franc was still in a weak spot as risk appetite popped back in the markets while traders are shying away from European currencies on event risks. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today, so market sentiment could dictate franc price action.
JPY
The yen gave up ground against its peers at the end of the week as risk aversion faded and the BOJ maintained its easy monetary policy. Earlier today, Japan reported a weaker than expected trade balance of 0.13T JPY instead of widening from 0.16T JPY to 0.35T JPY.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls regained a lot of ground as risk-taking happened on Friday. Canadian foreign securities purchases turned out weaker than expected but the Loonie remained mostly supported. Australia’s CB leading index is due next but the main event risks for the comdolls this week are the RBNZ decision and oil-related headlines.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 20, 2017)
USD
The US dollar got a strong boost from hawkish remarks by FOMC member William Dudley in his testimony. He affirmed US economic growth and how it has been well-distributed, citing that wage growth could pick up once productivity does. He also emphasized the need to keep up the Fed’s tightening timeline. FOMC member Evans still has a speech coming up, along with Fischer and Kaplan.
EUR
The euro was in a weak spot as Brexit-related uncertainties dampened demand for the shared currency. There were no major catalysts from the region on Monday while today has German PPI and the euro zone current account balance. A 0.1% drop in producer prices is eyed, so a steeper fall could push the shared currency much lower.
GBP
The pound was also on shaky footing as traders have been on edge during the start of the Brexit talks. While officials confirmed that it was a positive start and that the timeline and agenda have been agreed upon, traders can’t help but limit their pound holdings in anticipation of more heated discussions later on. The UK Rightmove HPI indicated a 0.4% drop in price levels. BOE Governor Carney is set to give his postponed testimony later today.
CHF
The franc was also in a weak spot against most of its peers as sentiment in the region turned sour. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has a speech by SNB Chairman Jordan. Jawboning could continue to weigh on the Swiss currency, although traders don’t seem to be so bothered anymore.
JPY
The yen gave up ground to the commodity currencies as risk appetite came into play. Japan’s trade balance turned out weaker than expected at 0.13T JPY versus the projected rise from 0.16T JPY to 0.35T JPY. There are no reports due from Japan today.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls managed to advance against their peers even with the drop in commodity prices. RBA monetary policy meeting minutes are up for release, along with the quarterly HPI. Moody’s downgraded big Australian banks for their exposure to the housing market. Canadian wholesale sales data and New Zealand’s GDT auction are lined up next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 21, 2017)
USD
The US dollar managed to hold on to its gains thanks to the return in risk aversion. A few other policymakers gave testimonies but none sounded as hawkish as Dudley. The US current account balance widened to $117 billion but this was smaller than the projected $124 billion shortfall. US existing home sales data is due next.
EUR
The euro managed to hold its ground since it appears to be trading as the safe-haven in the region. The euro zone current account surplus was lower than expected at 22.2 billion EUR versus the 31.3 billion EUR consensus. There are no major reports due from the region today.
GBP
The pound was the weakest of the bunch as traders continued to price in Brexit uncertainties. PM May has yet to strike a coalition with the DUP and traders are looking to the Queen’s Speech for reassurance. BOE Governor Carney was not as hawkish as his other policymakers who voted for a hike in last week’s decision. UK public sector borrowing data is due next, along with a speech by MPC member Haldane.
CHF
The franc had a mixed run as it gained ground to the European currencies but tumbled against the commodity currencies. SNB head Jordan continued to jawbone the currency, threatening to intervene in the forex market if the franc keeps appreciating. The SNB Quarterly Bulletin is up for release next.
JPY
The yen regained some ground as risk-off flows were seen for the most part of the day. There were no reports out of Japan and today has the BOJ minutes lined up. Still, overall market sentiment could be the main driver of yen movements.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie paused from its climb when crude oil tumbled to its nine-month low on rising output from Libya. The country, which is exempted from the OPEC deal, struck a deal with Germany’s Wintershall to increase production and is likely to stay on track to meet its 1M bpd target for next month. In New Zealand, the GDT auction yielded a 0.8% drop in dairy prices and the RBNZ decision is due next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 22, 2017)
USD
The US dollar held its ground against its peers even as talks of balance sheet unwinding in September dampened rate hike hopes for the same month. According to Harker and Evans, this move is separate from their economic assessment but they could rethink if data keeps coming in weak. US existing home sales turned out stronger than expected and the HPI is due next, along with the CB leading index.
EUR
The euro was off to a rough start but managed to recover against its peers as sentiment improved in the region. There were no reports out of the euro zone in the recent session and none are due today so risk appetite could determine where the shared currency could head next.
GBP
The pound drew a bit of support from relatively upbeat remarks from BOE member Haldane. This tempered cautious remarks from BOE head Carney in the previous session while the Queen’s Speech also injected a bit more confidence in the government and economy. UK public sector borrowing data also turned out better than expected. The CBI industrial order expectations index is due next and a fall from 9 to 7 is eyed.
CHF
The franc managed to rake in some gains, mostly against the commodity currencies. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy so currency-specific factors stayed in play. The trade balance is due next and a wider surplus of 2.44B CHF compared to the earlier 1.97B CHF is expected.
JPY
The yen also gained ground against the higher-yielding comdolls as risk aversion came into play. Japan’s all industries activity index posted a 2.1% gain, higher than the projected 1.7% rebound. There are no major reports due from Japan next so market sentiment could stay in play.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were the weakest performers for the day as the drop in crude oil finally took its toll on the Loonie. Even though US stockpiles posted a larger than expected draw of 2.5 million barrels, the commodity barely came off its lows on concerns of rising output from Libya. The RBNZ decision and Canadian retail sales reports are lined up next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 23, 2017)
USD
The dollar was able to rake in some gains against most of its counterparts, except against the Kiwi and Loonie. The US CB leading index came up short at 0.3% versus the 0.4% consensus while the earlier reading was downgraded to 0.2%. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are lined up today, along with new home sales data.
EUR
The euro edged slowly lower against most of its rivals as there have been no major reports to give the shared currency a boost recent. PMI reports from the manufacturing and services sectors of Germany and France are lined up, and analysts are expecting to see small dips in activity.
GBP
The pound was still one of the weaker performing currencies as Brexit uncertainties weighed on the UK currency. UK CBI industrial orders actually turned out better than expected as the index jumped from 9 to 16 instead of falling to 7. There are no reports due from the UK economy today.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker against its peers as risk-taking forced the currency to slide, on top of fears of SNB intervention. Swiss trade balance was stronger than expected at 3.40 billion CHF versus the estimated 2.44 billion CHF or the earlier 1.96 billion CHF surplus. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy next.
JPY
The yen was also on the losing end as risk-taking came into play. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy yesterday while today has the flash manufacturing PMI on tap. Analysts are expecting to see a rise from 53.1 to 53.4 to reflect a faster pace of expansion.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Kiwi enjoyed a strong boost after the RBNZ was less cautious than expected in their policy statement. The central bank kept rates unchanged and didn’t jawbone too much, even giving a more upbeat outlook for the economy. Meanwhile, crude oil chalked up another slide but the Loonie gained support from strong retail sales. The headline figure chalked up a 1.5% gain versus the projected 0.6% uptick while the core reading was up 0.8% versus 0.3%.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 26, 2017)
USD
The US dollar was off to a weak start as economic reports turned out below expectations. Headline durable goods orders fell 1.1% versus the projected 0.5% dip while the core reading showed a 0.1% uptick instead of the estimated 0.4% gain. Fed Chairperson Yellen has a speech coming up next.
EUR
Economic data from the euro zone turned out stronger than expected as the German Ifo business climate index climbed from 114.6 to 115.1 versus the estimated 114.7 reading. There are no major reports due from the region next but Draghi has a speech coming up.
GBP
The pound gained some support from reports confirming that PM May has been able to strike a coalition with the DUP. This could leave the government with a more united front in the Brexit negotiations. UK BBA mortgage approvals dipped from 40.7K to 40.3K as expected. The BOE financial stability report and a speech by Carney are lined up next.
CHF
The franc had a mixed performance as the lack of top-tier data from Switzerland left it functioning as a counter currency. There are still no major reports lined up from the Swiss economy so market sentiment could push the franc around.
JPY
The yen was mostly weaker against its peers as risk appetite was in play last week. There have been no major reports out of Japan so far this week and none are lined up today so market sentiment could be responsible for yen price action.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls managed to rake in more gains as risk-taking was evident at the end of the week, even with downside pressure on crude oil prices. New Zealand’s trade balance is coming up next and a narrower surplus of 420M NZD compared to the earlier 578M NZD reading is expected.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 27, 2017)
USD
The US dollar had a mixed run at the start of the week as weaker than expected durable goods orders kept gains limited. Headline durable goods orders fell 1.1% versus the projected 0.5% drop while the core reading had a 0.1% uptick versus the estimated 0.4% gain. US CB consumer confidence is due next and a dip from 117.9 to 116.1 is eyed, but the bigger mover could be Fed head Yellen’s testimony.
EUR
The euro also had a mixed run as it advanced to the yen but gave up ground to commodity currencies. German Ifo business climate improved from 114.6 to 115.1, outpacing the consensus at 114.7. There are no major reports due from the euro zone today but ECB head Draghi has a speech lined up.
GBP
The pound gained some support from news that PM May has finally been able to strike a coalition with the DUP. BOE Governor Carney has a testimony today and his previous one was more dovish than expected. The BOE Financial Stability Report is also up for release.
CHF
The franc was mostly weaker as risk appetite came into play and there were no reports out of Switzerland to give it a boost. The Swiss economic schedule is still empty for the upcoming trading sessions so market sentiment could keep pushing the franc unless currency-specific events carry more weight.
JPY
The yen has been off to a weak start this week as risk-taking has been in play. There have been no major reports out yet so it’s tough to pinpoint the actual catalyst for the move, besides stops getting hit on technical breaks. There are no reports due from Japan in the upcoming sessions so market sentiment could determine whether the yen pairs can keep climbing or not.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
Comdolls raked in gains earlier on as risk appetite was present at the start of this week. New Zealand’s trade balance is due next and a narrower surplus of 420 million NZD versus the earlier 578 million NZD is expected. There are no major reports due from the comdoll economies in the next trading session so commodity prices could determine where they might be headed next.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 28, 2017)
USD
The dollar barely reacted to Fed head Yellen’s testimony since she merely repeated their statements during the FOMC decision and reiterated that inflation is running below the committee’s long-run objective. FOMC members Harker and Kashkari didn’t cause any big moves for the dollar as well. US pending home sales are due next and a 0.9% rebound is eyed.
EUR
The euro enjoyed a strong boost when ECB head Draghi hinted that they could withdraw stimulus at some point, reviving speculations of tapering. There were no major reports out of the region and only medium-tier figures, namely German import prices and Italian preliminary CPI, are lined up next.
GBP
The pound was still under some selling pressure as its other European currency rivals took most of the gains. BOE Governor Carney had a speech that sounded mostly cautious, but the CBI realized sales index posted a strong climb from 2 to 12, outpacing the consensus at 4. BOE Governor Carney has another speech coming up.
CHF
The franc followed the euro’s tracks in rallying against its peers. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then but the improved sentiment in the region shored up the currency. The Credit Suisse economic expectations index is due next ad an improvement over the earlier 30.8 figure could mean more franc gains. UBS will also print its consumption indicator.
JPY
The yen gave up more ground to its peers as risk sentiment continued to improve and traders still favored the dollar over the Japanese currency. There were no reports out of the Japanese economy recently but Kuroda did hint that they are reluctant to withdraw stimulus. He has another speech coming up.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls continued to rake in gains against lower-yielders but gave up ground to European currencies. BOC Governor Poloz has a speech lined up and he previously gave an upbeat assessment and outlook for Canada, which could shore up the Loonie again even with weaker oil prices. New Zealand’s trade balance turned out weaker than expected at 103 million NZD versus 420 million NZD while the earlier reading was downgraded.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 29, 2017)
USD
The dollar gave up more ground to its counterparts as pending home sales turned out weaker than expected. The report printed a 0.8% decline versus the estimated 0.9% increase while the earlier figure was downgraded to show a 1.7% slide. Initial jobless claims and the final GDP reading are due next, although these aren’t expected to have a huge impact on the dollar unless there are big surprises.
EUR
The euro enjoyed a strong boost after Draghi gave hawkish hints but the gains were erased when policymaker Constancio clarified that inflationary pressures are still weak and that stimulus is needed to prop up price levels. Many also cautioned that markets may have misinterpreted Draghi’s remarks. German and Spanish preliminary CPI readings are still lined up and strong readings could revive the shared currency.
GBP
The pound staged a rally late in the day as BOE head Carney sounded hawkish himself. This is in contrast to his earlier dovish tone as he signaled that further gains in inflation could make a rate hike necessary. UK mortgage approvals and net lending to individuals figures are up for release next, but traders could also pay close attention to the vote on the Queen’s Speech.
CHF
The franc continued to advance against most of its peers as sentiment improved in Europe. Swiss data turned out mixed, with the UBS consumption indicator up from 1.34 to 1.39 and the Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Index down from 30.8 to 20.7. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.
JPY
The yen was still losing ground to its counterparts as BOJ head Kuroda expressed hesitation to tighten or reduce bond purchases. Japan’s retail sales report is due next and a lower read of 2.6% is eyed, compared to the earlier 3.2% gain. Traders could also price in expectations ahead of the inflation reports due at the end of this week.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The Loonie led the pack as it shrugged of the surprise buildup in EIA crude oil stockpiles. The increase of 0.1 million barrels was still lower than the 0.8 million barrels reported by the API so bulls came into play. BOC Governor Poloz also reiterated their relatively upbeat stance, signaling that they’re done cutting rates. Australia’s HIA new home sales is due next and New Zealand will report its ANZ business confidence index.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 30, 2017)
USD
The US dollar was mostly weaker against its peers even though the final GDP reading enjoyed an upgrade from 1.2% to 1.4% instead of staying unchanged as expected. Personal spending and income, along with the core PCE price index, are up for release today and stronger than expected results could still shore up the currency.
EUR
The euro managed to hold on to some of its gains when medium-tier reports turned out better than expected. German preliminary CPI is up 0.2% instead of staying flat while the GfK consumer climate index improved from 10.4 to 10.6 instead of staying unchanged. German retail sales and French consumer spending reports are lined up today.
GBP
The pound continued its ascent as BOE member Haldane reiterated his hawkish views and Governor Carney previously admitted that some removal of stimulus might be needed if inflationary pressures keep rising. UK net lending to individuals was better than expected as well. UK current account balance and final GDP readings are up for release next.
CHF
The franc held on to its gains as sentiment improved in Europe. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then and the KOF economic barometer is due today. A rise from 101.6 to 102.5 is expected, and this could spur more gains for the Swiss currency.
JPY
Yen weakness was still in play as bond sold off worldwide, mostly due to the pickup in risk appetite. BOJ head Kuroda also expressed reluctance to reduce stimulus, keeping the Japanese central bank behind its peers on the tightening curve. Japanese household spending and core inflation reports are up for release next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls raked in more gains as risk appetite extended its stay. Australia’s HIA new home sales posted a 1.1% increase, outpacing the earlier 0.8% uptick, while New Zealand reported a higher ANZ business confidence index of 24.8 from the earlier 14.9 figure. Chinese official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are lined up next, with strong figures likely to keep risk-taking in play.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way
Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 03, 2017)
USD
The US dollar managed to chalk up some gains last Friday on profit-taking and strong US data. Personal income was stronger than expected at 0.4% versus 0.3% while personal spending came in line with expectations of a 0.1% uptick. The Chicago PMI and revised UoM consumer sentiment index also surpassed estimates while the core PCE price index printed the expected 0.1% gain. The ISM manufacturing PMI is due today and a rise from 54.9 to 55.0 is eyed.
EUR
The euro returned some of its recent gains even with stronger than expected flash CPI readings. The headline figure dipped from 1.4% to 1.3% versus the 1.2% consensus while the core reading rose from 0.9% to 1.1% vs. the 1.0% estimate. German and French consumer spending numbers also turned out stronger than expected. Final manufacturing PMI readings and the region’s unemployment rate are due today.
GBP
The pound had a mixed run as medium-tier releases also turned out mixed. The final GDP reading was unchanged at 0.2% as expected while the current account balance beat consensus. Business investment was unchanged at 0.6% as expected. UK manufacturing PMI is due today and a dip from 56.7 to 56.4 is eyed.
CHF
The franc gave up some ground to its rivals as profit-taking took place on Friday. Swiss data was actually better than expected with the KOF economic barometer up from 102.0 to 105.5 versus the projected 102.5 figure. Swiss retail sales is due today and a 0.8% year-over-year decline compared to the earlier 1.2% drop is expected.
JPY
The yen was still the weakest in the bunch as Japanese inflation readings were weaker than expected. In particular, Tokyo’s core figure was flat instead of posting the projected 0.2% uptick. Preliminary industrial production slumped 3.3% versus the projected 3.1% decline. Earlier today, the Tankan survey reported gains for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, although the latter came up short.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls are off to a good start after China’s Caixin PMI turned out stronger than expected. This follows last week’s official PMI figures, which also reflected gains for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. Canadian banks are closed for the holiday today.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way