Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Jun 30, 2017)
The US dollar was mostly weaker against its peers even though the final GDP reading enjoyed an upgrade from 1.2% to 1.4% instead of staying unchanged as expected. Personal spending and income, along with the core PCE price index, are up for release today and stronger than expected results could still shore up the currency.
The euro managed to hold on to some of its gains when medium-tier reports turned out better than expected. German preliminary CPI is up 0.2% instead of staying flat while the GfK consumer climate index improved from 10.4 to 10.6 instead of staying unchanged. German retail sales and French consumer spending reports are lined up today.
The pound continued its ascent as BOE member Haldane reiterated his hawkish views and Governor Carney previously admitted that some removal of stimulus might be needed if inflationary pressures keep rising. UK net lending to individuals was better than expected as well. UK current account balance and final GDP readings are up for release next.
The franc held on to its gains as sentiment improved in Europe. There were no major reports out of the Swiss economy then and the KOF economic barometer is due today. A rise from 101.6 to 102.5 is expected, and this could spur more gains for the Swiss currency.
Yen weakness was still in play as bond sold off worldwide, mostly due to the pickup in risk appetite. BOJ head Kuroda also expressed reluctance to reduce stimulus, keeping the Japanese central bank behind its peers on the tightening curve. Japanese household spending and core inflation reports are up for release next.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls raked in more gains as risk appetite extended its stay. Australia’s HIA new home sales posted a 1.1% increase, outpacing the earlier 0.8% uptick, while New Zealand reported a higher ANZ business confidence index of 24.8 from the earlier 14.9 figure. Chinese official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are lined up next, with strong figures likely to keep risk-taking in play.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way