Forex Major Currencies Outlook (July 28, 2017)
The US dollar bounced back from its FOMC tumble when some medium-tier reports beat expectations. Headline durable goods orders jumped 6.5% versus the projected 3.5% increase while core durable goods was slightly weaker at 0.2% versus 0.4%. The goods trade balance showed a narrower deficit to indicate stronger export activity and a positive contribution to GDP. The advance GDP reading is due later today and a 2.5% expansion is eyed, stronger than the previous 1.4% growth figure.
Economic data from the euro zone turned out slightly weaker than expected, keeping ECB tapering expectations in play. The German GfK consumer climate index climbed from 10.6 to 10.8, higher than the projected rise to 10.7, while the Spanish unemployment rate improved from 18.8% to 17.2%. French flash GDP, German preliminary CPI, Spanish flash CPI and GDP are all lined up today.
The UK printed mixed economic reports, with the CBI realized sales index climbing from 12 to 22 instead of dipping to 10 and the GfK consumer confidence index slipping from -10 to -12 instead of improving to -11. There are no reports due from the UK economy today so the pound could take its cue from market sentiment and Brexit updates.
The franc had a mixed run as it reacted mostly to currency-specific events but it was mostly lower on potential SNB intervention. The KOF economic barometer is up for release today and a rise from 105.5 to 105.9 is expected, possibly renewing some support for the Swiss currency.
The Japanese yen gave up some ground as dollar demand returned in anticipation of an upbeat advance GDP reading. Earlier today, data from Japan turned out mostly stronger than expected, renewing support for the currency. National core CPI posted a 0.4% gain as expected while the Tokyo core CPI rose by 0.2% versus the estimated 0.1% uptick. The unemployment rate improved from 3.1% to 2.8% and household spending rebounded by 2.3%. Retail sales, however, fell short at a 2.1% year-over-year gain.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls struggled to hold on to their recent gains as a bit of risk aversion and profit-taking materialized. Australian import prices dropped 0.1% instead of posting the projected 0.7% gain in Q2. The Loonie was also bogged down by talks of how the Canadian government wasn’t too pleased about the BOC hike. The Canadian monthly GDP is due next and another 0.2% uptick is eyed.
By Kate Curtis from Trader’s Way