Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Aug 14, 2017)
US CPI figures came in weaker than expected as the headline and core readings came in at 0.1% versus the projected 0.2% pickup, further dampening September rate hike expectations. There are no major reports lined up from the US today so dollar pairs could take their cues from market sentiment, which is mostly being influenced by the North Korea situation.
Euro zone data came in mixed with German and French final CPI readings coming in line with estimates and the German WPI printing a worse than expected 0.1% dip versus the projected 0.3% uptick. French preliminary non-farm payrolls turned out stronger than expected with a 0.5% gain versus the projected 0.4% rise. Euro zone industrial production is due next and a 0.4% drop is eyed.
There were no major reports out of the UK economy last Friday and none are due today, leaving traders to price in their expectations for this week's top-tier releases. These include the CPI, jobs data, and retail sales readings that might influence BOE policy bias. Apart from that, market sentiment could also determine how pound pairs might behave.
The franc was able to take advantage of some risk-off flows but it looks like traders are still wary of SNB intervention. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so risk sentiment might still be the main driver of franc price action.
The yen raked in more gains on Friday but gave up some ground on profit-taking at the end of the week. Earlier today, Japan printed a stronger 1.0% GDP growth compared to the earlier 0.3% expansion. The price index was down 0.4%, half of the earlier 0.8% slide. Market sentiment could also push yen pairs around, based on headlines regarding North Korea.
Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)
The comdolls were able to make a bit of a rebound before the week came to a close as traders booked profits to avoid weekend risk. Over the weekend, New Zealand reported a 2.0% increase in headline retail sales for Q2 and a 2.1% gain in core retail sales. Chinese industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales data are lined up next but risk appetite might still be the bigger drivers of comdoll movement.
By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way