Long story short, I’m a young guy who has spent [I]a lot[/I] of time trading. I went to school and never got a “real job.” I worked for a trading company out of NYC for a while where I supported other currency traders; I’m going to start my own company soon.
Yep, my forum tag is my REAL name. It always sketches me out when people claim to be huge money managers or they offer up the fact that they make tons of money – yet without sharing their real name. I don’t believe in that. :33:
My trading style is simple, yet it took me a while to figure it out.
I trade at minimum for 1:2 or 1:3 risk to reward ratios (unless I take a really, really convicted scalp trade).
I use moving averages and pivot points, I also use Heikin Ashi candlesticks versus your standards.
Every day I will try to post a little synopsis momo as to how I feel about the currencies I follow:
An important level that jumps out at me EUR/USD 1.4367
Scenario 1 - We break through it, touch back and then take off again.
Scenario 2 - we fade right here, and continue back down to test 1.43 again, I’d watch for the 9EMA to see a crossover the 100 or 200 EMA here on the 5 minute for confirmation that another move to the downside is in play.
Scenario 1 - .8180 is in play. If it breaks this level and runs to .82 it could pullback to .8180 then make a run for .8250 again
Scenario 2 - .81 is a big daily level at the daily 9EMA. A 4 Hour Close into these levels should be paid attention to and could drag it around .8080 before more bids come into the market.
Scenario 1 - 1.0640 acts as a magnet for the next 24 hours. Oscillation above these levels and then a 9EMA crossover above the 200EMA on the 5 minute could mean it will make a move to test 1.07 levels again
Scenario 2 - We get a 4 Hour Close into 1.0620 and break down to 1.0550
Lots of oscillation here is likely between 1.0605 and 1.07
Scenario 1 - .8180 was in play, the market was constantly testing it, but that clean break above and the retest for a run to .8250 never setup. This played out.
Scenario 2 - A heikin 4 hour close did in fact drag it to .8080, where the market bid it up. This also played out.
Scenario 1 - We oscillated without the crossover I mentioned for most of Friday trading. Then into Europe we had a sell off, then we saw the 5ema crossover the 200EMA on the 5 minute and we did test the 1.07 levels. This played out.
Scenario 1 - 1.0726 is a turning point where we will turn from a support into a resistance level. This pair moves down to the 1.0680 levels. Careful on counter trends, the 4H 50 and 100 EMAs sit at 1.0674 and the daily 9 EMA sits at 1.0667 - Lots of support still, but is set up for sideways trading and a possible small retracement.
Scenario 2 - We break this little sell off into Asia and scare the momo by pushing past 1.0726. Once we break 1.0726 we briefly oscillate, turn back and touch 1.0726 - the market then bids that test up and we go to test 1.08 levels on the next wave.
Scenario 1 - Didn’t happen. We broke 1.0726, however we did eventually sell off down to 1.0680 where we then turned again.
Scenario 2 - Didn’t happen. We did push past 1.0726 in asia and caused a run to 1.0758 but never made it to 1.08.
This pair continues to oscillate. The technicals likely got somewhat driven off course (lots of intraday noise) due to the RBA rate announcement in which we saw a 100 pip swing in a little over 30 minutes. However, the Aussie gained back the losses and continues to oscillate.
Heikin Ashi candlesticks are showing weakness on the 4 Hour Chart. There was a nice close under the 9EMA at around 1.4627 which leads me to think we may see some more sell offs on this pair.
In the short term, watch 1.4613 to manage this trade at the immediate levels.
In the medium term, watch 1.4650 to manage this trade at the medium levels.
In the larger term, watch 1.47.
In the medium to short term I expect price to potentially draw back initially to 1.4544 and expect a big bounce/battle at 1.45
