Daily Technical Analysis by FxGrow

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729

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 23rd Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Dodges FOMC’s Strike, Awaiting US Unemployment Claims

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Gold has successfully sustained 1230 levels yesterday after FOMC minute meeting ended with ambiguous hints that US fed rates hike is inevitable without any specifications on date and time, but it’s coming. Traders didn’t digest the released news properly and XAUUSD replied with a rally from 1231 low to 1240.58 high. Gold, which was recently proved a sacred haven metal will undergo further test today as US releases unemployment claims.

Fundamentals :

1 - US jobless claims today at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical levels to watch :

Trend : Up sideways

Daily Pp 1234.13

Resistance levels : R1 1243.90, R2 1249.36, R3 1259.33 , R4 1268.49

Support levels : S1 1232.70, S2 1221.50, S3 1213.71, S4 1198.37

Remark : Gold trend is still up but US data today will creative volatility. Keep in mind that gold has managed to reclaim bearish forces. Stalling above R1 level will spark additional bull waves towards R2&R3 level. Closing below S2 level is needed to shift to downward trend. Be careful from set backs on support levels as a first test.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 27th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Under Pressure Ahead of US Core Durable Goods

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EUR/USD digested Friday’s gains as US Dollar perused bullish forces and continued the strong tone after Trump speech on 24th, with tax reformation as a main subject. US index surged $0.5 and clocked a high 100.63, currently trading 101.12 intraday. Analysts at Namoura expressed concerns about what’s coming ahead of EU and French election is the main frame that revolves EURO levels.

Quote:

"Higher polling for Marine Le Pen justifies the markets’ recent fears, but our base case remains for her to lose the election. If fears escalate, we think 0.97 will be a key level in EUR/USD (-20% deviation from PPP), and the level the euro would settle around in the event of a Le Pen victory. If fears of a Le Pen victory subside, as we expect, then we see a very positive picture for the euro with the possibility of ECB tapering later in the year.”

Fundamentals :

1- EUR -M3 Money Supply y/y today at 9:00 AM GMT.

1- USD - Core durable goods order today at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical levels to watch:

Trend: Bearish Sideways.

Resistance levels : R1 1.0587, R2 1.0628, R3 1.0658

Support levels : S1 1.0552, S2 1.0519 , S3 1.0492

Remark : The market remains bearish trend. Closing below S1 projects further declines with selloffs and wash towards to S2 level. Closing above R3 is needed for trend reversal. Look forward for US data today which will impact US index levels.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

731

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 28th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Declines as US Dollar Inclines, US GDP in Focus

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GBP/USD extended the bearish momentum for the third consecutive session this week. The pair clocked two-weeks-fresh-lows yesterday at 1.2383 pressured by reviving US Dollar yesterday as US index rallied from 100.66 low and parked at 101.18 hill, currently trading 101.11. The pair is trading 1.2432 right now, struggling to trespass it’s daily pivot at 1.2437.

Other contributing fundamentals added negative weight for Sterling, starting with PM Theresa May and the possibility of releasing article 50 approaches and mid March in on her Agenda. Second, reports released by the Times saying that the UK government is preparing for a potential independence referendum in Scotland next March. Reports (Times) also mentioned that PM May has granted the green light for such referendum on the condition that it will take action after UK leaves EU.

Fundamentals :

1- US Prelim GDP q/q today at 1:30 PM GMT ( Heavy Impact )

2- US Consumer Confidence today at 3:00 PM GMT ( less Impact )

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2479, R2 1.2527, R3 1.2570

Support levels : S1 1.2412, S2 1.2371, S3 1.2325

Remark : Look forward for US data today which will impact US Dollar levels. Stalling below S1 level projects further congestion with attacks towards S2&S3 levels. Closing above R2 level is needed for a short-term-trend-reversal and above it, GBP/USD will be considered Bullish.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 28th Feb, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Japanese Yen Surges on Local Positive Retail Sales, US GDP in Sight

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Japanese Yen inaugurated early trading hours with a sharp tone facing strong US Dollar, armored with positive local Retail Sales at 0.1% compared to 0.7% on previous sessions. USD/JPY rallied yesterday 92 pips and clocked a high 112.84 but managed to deduct -40 pips this morning as the pair plunged to 112.44 low. US index strong performance yesterday at 101.18 high was justified by positive local Durable Goods at 1.8%, while forecasts were 1.6%. Fed President and 2017 FOMC voter Kaplan crossed wires yesterday with a repetition to his previous comments that Fed rates should be increased sooner rather now and quoted:

“even raising rates a few times this year would leave monetary policy stance accommodative.”

Fundamentals :

1- US Prelim GDP q/q today at 1:30 PM GMT ( Heavy Impact )

2- US Consumer Confidence today at 3:00 PM GMT ( less Impact )

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Daily Pp 112.48

Resistance levels : R1 112.86, R2 113.58, R3 114.29

Support levels : S1 112.04, S2 111.37, S3 110.59

Remark : Keep an eye on US Index levels with local US news today. Stalling below S1 projects further attacks towards S2 level. Closing above R1 levels will spark additional bullish waves at R2&R3 levels. Above R2 the cable to be considered bullish.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

733

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 01st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil Recoups Yesterday’s Losses Ahead of US Inventories

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Fundamentals :

Crude oil levels plunged yesterday to 53.13 20-Feb-fresh-lows after signals that the U.S. shale industry is recovering weighed on the market ( ANZ Report ).

Quote: “One of the biggest shale producers, EOG Resources said it had boosted its drilling budget by 44 percent after the recent rally in prices.”

OPEC with Saudi Arabia in focus, has set its eye on $60 P/B as a target for 2017. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers pledged last year to cut production by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1. The first cut in eight years is intended to boost prices and get rid of a supply glut.

OPEC could extend its oil supply-reduction pact with non-members or even apply deeper cuts from July if global crude inventories fail to drop to a targeted level, OPEC sources have told Reuters.

Positive Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI released early this morning give signs of increasing oil demand and therefore pushed oil prices higher.

Conclusion : US will increase drilling rigs to glut market with oil supply and OPEC can only reply by ascending compliance and additional reduction to the initial 1.8M bpd. Today US crude inventories at 3:30 PM GMT, will bring new perspectives for oil levels.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 54.27, R2 54.90, R3 55.65

Support levels : S1 53.47, S2 52.85, S3 52.35

Remark : The key player today is US crude inventories. A penetration for R1 level and stalling above it projects further attacks towards R2 level. Closing Above R2 level is an alarm for R3 level to get ready. A correction below S1 level will create congestion with further selloffs and wash towards S2 levels. Below S3 level the market to be considered downtrend.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

734

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 01st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Canadian Dollar levels Awaits Local Interest Rate Decision

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USD/CAD dilated further gains early this morning and the greenback boogie is back on the field. Yesterday, FOMC members Williams and Harker were on the right time, right place supporting US Dollar, and both scenarios in accord waving the Fed rate hike card again and odds for March increase is officially on the menu. Trump contributed positively with a patriotic speech that boosted US index more, currently 101.72 and it’s expected to surge further more. As a result, USD/CAD rallied yesterday from 1.3164 and clocked 1.3330 24-Jan-fresh-highs. Canadian Dollar awaits BOC interest decision today and stakes of leaving rates at current 0.50% are outweigh.

Fundamentals :

1- CAD Interest Rate decision today at 3:00 PM GMT.

2- US ISM Manufacturing PMI today at 3:00 PM GMT.

3- US FOMC Member Kaplan speech today at 6:00 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish

Daily Pp 1.3259

Resistance levels : R1 1.3333, R2 1.3384, R3 1.3430, R4 1.3478

Support levels : S1 1.3255, S2 1.3192, S3 1.3140, S4 1.3030

Remark : Look forward for Canadian and US data today which will new perspectives for USD/CAD. Also, indirectly, crude oil levels tend to impact Canadian Dollar. Canadian GDP and Unemolyment Rate data tomorrow at 1:30 PM GMT not to be missed.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 01st March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/MXN Edges On Stronger US Dollar

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USD/MXN rallied yesterday at 20.1079 after FOMC’s members Williams and Harker crossed wires yesterday with hints that Fed Rate Hikes are more important than ever and March odds are increasing. Then Trump appeared early this morning with patriotic speech, boosting US index higher at 101.79 and USD/MXN clocked a higher record for this week 20.1600, but the pair couldn’t withhold the 20 level and retreated to 19.9788 at which the currency is currently trading.

Unemployment in Mexico peeked up to 3.6% in January, a 0.2% rise on December’s reading but lower than market expectations of a rise to 3.8%. The USD clawed back some of the session’s losses against the Peso but the Mexican currency still remains vulnerable to further downside pressure from President Donald Trump’s job repatriation vows.

Fundamentals :

1- US ISM Manufacturing PMI today at 3:00 PM GMT.

2- US FOMC Member Kaplan speech today at 6:00 PM GMT.

3- MXN Manufacturing PMI report today at 3:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 20.1597, R2 20.3342, R3 20.6069

Support levels : S1 19.9665, S2 19.7622 , S3 19.5024

Remark : Look forward for US and Mexican economic data today with expectation of high volatility after release.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

736

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 02nd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

GBP/USD Sinks as Brexit Final Touches Approaches, Awaiting UK PMI

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Once again, GBP/USD dips to 1.2260 20-Jan-Fresh-lows with a reminder of Brexit bearish levels. The pair is downtrend for fifth consecutive session through this week due to the following factors.

1- Strong US Dollar performance after Fed Rate hikes has increased from 35% on Tuesday to 69% on Wednesday (CNBC). US index peeked yesterday to 101.97, highest levels since Feb.

2- PM Theresa May mentioned recently that papers ( Article 50 ) for final divorce from EU are ready and the green light is granted for a release. (Reuters).

3- Yesterday, UK negative Manufacturing PMI at 54.8 while forecasts were 55.9, added more negative mood for Sterling future and what about to come.

These are the elements that created the dark cloud for Sterling and fears grow further more, along with it uncertainty evolves around GBP/USD coming future. The pair has a chance to claim some dignity today at UK releases local construction PMI which will either dig a deeper hole or the pair will make an upward temporary correction.

Fundamentals :

1- GBP Construction PMI today at 9:30 AM GMT.

2- USD Unemployment Rate today at 1:30 PM GMT.

3- USD - Yellen Speech tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish

Daily Pp 1.2326

Resistance levels : R1 1.2329, R2 1.2383, R3 1.2469

Support levels : S1 1.2257, S2 1.2208, S3 1.2134

Remark : Look forward for UK and US data today. The market is negative due to strong US Index and Yellen Speech tomorrow could create additional gains for USD. A penetration for S1 level will create further congestion with increase selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R2 level is needed for short-term correction and above R3 level, the pair to be considered bullish.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

737

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 02nd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Maintains High Levels Despite Strong US Dollar

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Gold has successfully sustained high levels even though US Dollar is back with the bully tone. XAUUSD peeked this week to 1263.95, highest level since 11 Nov 2016, but then lost momentum after FOMC’s members hints that Fed Rate Hikes are important now more than ever. As a result, the yellow metal rolled -$26.99 and sank to 1236.79 low yesterday.

US Dollar is on the strongest performance after Fed Rate hikes has increased from 35% on Tuesday to 69% on Wednesday (CNBC). US index peeked yesterday to 101.97, highest levels since Feb.

Fundamentals :

1- US Unemployment Rate today at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- Yellen Speech tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1250.54, R2 1263.52, R3 1273.44, R4 1282.58

Support levels : S1 1241.32, S2 1230.69, S3 1220.52, S4 1207.00

Remark : Look forward for US Data today but the main focus is shifted to Yellen speech, any hints about Fed Rates Hikes will impact gold levels. Stalling above R2 level will fuel further attacks towards R3&R4 levels. Closing below S2 level, the market will shift to bearish.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 03rd March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Forex Technical Levels Ahead Of Yellen Speech Today

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Fundamentals:

Markets, analysts, and traders are all poised ahead Fed chair Mrs. Yellen speech today at 6:00 PM GMT and what would result from her speech. Recent appearance of FOMC members kaplan, Harker, Evans, Brainnard, and Powel boosted US Dollar significantly as US Dollar index added +$1.6 from Monday with a 12-Jan-fresh-highs at $102.26. All members were in accord waving the Fed Rates hike card, now important more than ever.

March hike previously was out of consideration and the debate about it was considered a taboo with low probability, but recent booming US economy with Dow breaking record 12 consecutive sessions touching new historical highs and strong US data, forced FOMC members to appear on T.V. and discuss March hike officially on the menu. Now, March odds has increased to 69% (CNBC), therefore Yellen appearance today is considered articular.

Scenarios 1 : Yellen speech would go along with FOMC members adding more value to March hike and US Index will peek further more.

Scenario 2: Previous history of Mrs. Yellen, leaving details vague without confirmation nor denial about March hike would result in US index wallowing and possibility of USD decline.

Fx Technical levels

EUR/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.0553, R2 1.0587, R3 1.0633

Support levels : S1 1.0510, S2 1.0466, S3 1.0422

USD/JPY

Resistance levels : R1 114.59, R2 114.96, R3 115.38

Support levels : S1 114.05, S2 113.50, S3 112.96

GBP/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.2275, R2 1.2363, R3 1.2446

Support levels : S1 1.2210, S2 1.2131, S3 1.2068

AUD/USD

Resistance levels : R1 0.7572, R2 0.7609, R3 0.7650

support levels : S1 0.7536 , S2 0.7493, S3 0.7449

USD/CAD

Resistance levels : R1 1.3455, R2 1.3516, R3 1.3591

Support levels : S1 1.3357, S2 1.3278, S3 1.3210

Gold - XAUUSD

Resistance levels : R1 1232.87, R2 1242.12, R3 1258.14
Support levels: S1 1218.98, S2 1205.45, S3 1194.06

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

739

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 07th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

AUD/USD Surges Over RBA’s Unchanged Rates Decision

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AUD/USD rallied +57 pips in early trading sessions and clocked a high 0.7632 over RBA rates decision, leaving interest rate unchanged at 1.5% which was highly anticipated by markets, with the policy statement keeping a neutral bias.

Governor Lowe crossed wires with a press conference shortly after RBA’s rate decisions with the following headlines:

1- At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.

2- Conditions in the global economy have continued to improve over recent months. In China, growth is being supported by higher spending on infrastructure and property construction. The improvement in the global economy has contributed to higher commodity prices, which are providing a significant boost to Australia’s national income.

3- Headline inflation rates have moved higher in most countries, partly reflecting the higher commodity prices. Interest rates are expected to increase further in the United States and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and stock markets have mostly risen.

3- The Australian economy is continuing its transition following the end of the mining investment boom, expanding by around 2½ per cent in 2016. Exports have risen strongly and non-mining business investment has risen over the past year.

4- Labor market indicators continue to be mixed and there is considerable variation in employment outcomes across the country.

5- Inflation remains quite low. With growth in labor costs remaining subdued, underlying inflation is likely to stay low for some time.

6- Taking account of the available information the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.

Fundamentals :

1- US Trade Balance today at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- CNY - Chinese Trade Balance tomorrow tentative - after 12:00 AM GMT

Technical :

Trend : Bullish sideways

Daily Pp 0.7586

Resistance levels : R1 0.7642, R2 0.7668, R3 0.7713

Support levels : S1 0.7572, S2 0.7533, S3 0.7489

Remark : AUD/USD currently bullish but keep an eye on US index which is currently strong. Closing above R1 confirms the bullish momentum more and spark additional attacks towards R2 level. Stalling below S1 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 level. Closing below S1 level is needed for the cable to shift towards bearish trend. Chinese trade balance tomorrow tend to have impact on Asian currencies indirectly.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

740

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 08th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Crude Oil levels Plunges over Houston Energy Meeting, Eyes on US inventories

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Fundamentals:

Crude oil levels collapsed on Tuesday with a loss $1.08 per barrel -0.2% over fears of Houston energy meeting and outcome possibilities. Shell, the Royal Dutch company nailed a contract to ramp North American shale output earlier than planned and to lock in quick returns from what has become one of its most profitable businesses, the head of Shell’s unconventional energy business said.

The Anglo-Dutch company plans to make shale oil and gas in the United States, Canada and Argentina a key engine of growth in the next decade, targeting output of around 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/D), Greg Guidry told Reuters in an interview.

Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Tuesday that oil market fundamentals were improving as an agreement to curb supply by OPEC and non-OPEC producers took effect. Mr. Falih added that OPEC would not let rival producers take advantage of the reductions to underwrite their own production investment. OPEC cartel is expected to meet again in May, where OPEC might extend their production curbs.

“We should not get ahead of the market,” Falih told a group of oil industry executives at the CERA Week energy conference. Overall, he said the production reductions have had their intended effect, citing greater price arbitrage between east and west oil markets that “indicate the cuts are biting.” He said there are signs of “green shoots” of oil investment in the United States although he cautioned that a fast response from the U.S. shale industry could be discouraging for needed investment in multiyear, long-term projects in other oil supply sources outside of shale. Saudi Arabia does not want OPEC to intervene in the oil market to address long-term structural shifts, but would support measures to address “short-term aberrations.” (Reuters).

China’s crude oil imports rose to the second-highest level on record in February, as strong demand from independent “teapot” refiners continues to drive growth. February’s imports came in at 31.78 million tons or 8.286 million barrels per day, up 3.5 percent on a year ago, Chinese customs data showed on Wednesday. Daily shipments were only behind December’s record 8.57 million bpd, but up on 8.01 million bpd in January.

Conclusion: The rift continues between OPEC and US with opposed interest. OPEC benefits from high levels of oil prices since it’s their main source of income. US on the other hand, with -4.2B deficit in trade balance yesterday, and Trump’s industrial and infrastructure as his main concerns, will seek excessive efforts to tackle OPEC objectives. Crude oil levels will hang between $51 and $56 until OPEC’s next meeting in May with possibilities for further reductions and compliance.

Technical:

Resistance levels: R1 52.92, R2 53.46, R3 54.00

Support levels: S1 52.56, S2 52.12, S3 51.64

Remark:

Look forward for US crude inventories today at 3:30 PM GMT which will bring new levels for Crude Oil prices.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 08th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

USD/JPY Hikes On Strong US Dollar performance

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Japanese inaugurated early trading session with data not up to expectations with Final GDP q/q at 0.3% compared to 0.2%, while forecasts were 0.4%. Japanese Final GDP Price didn’t add any change and remained the same at -0.1%. As a result, USD/JPY sank to 113.60 low, then shifted the course and clocked a high 114.20 due to strong US Dollar performance as US index peeked to 101.98.

Technical levels to watch :

Trend : Bullish Sideways

Daily Pp 113.95

Resistance levels : R1 114.15, R2 114.60, R3 115.40

Support levels : S1 113.57, S2 112.90, S3 112.35

Remark : The market remains bullish due to strong US Dollar. A penetration for R1 level will increase further bullish waves towards R2 level. Closing below S2 level is needed for trend reversal.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 09th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Declines Ahead of ECB Interest Rates Decision

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EUR/USD extended bearish momentum for the fourth consecutive session this week after a significant peek on Monday with a March-fresh-highs 1.0636. The pair had to abandon the high levels, with a weekly low record at 1.0536, submitting to stronger US Dollar as US index continues to soar all competing rivals with a new high record for this week at 102.24.

Markets are awaiting ECB interest rates decision today and forecasts are high that ECB will leave rates at current 0.0%. The Eurozone is the first of the major economies to release inflation data for February, and it rose to 2.0%y/y, now essentially on target (The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term). Mr. Draghi will hold a press conference shortly after rates decision where he will discuss current EU monetary policy and global economy.

Despite the need for a continued accommodative monetary policy stance, the ECB is facing some challenges related to its QE purchases. Partly as a result of the ECB’s purchase patterns there has been a fall in short-end German yields at the beginning of this year, where the ECB has allowed itself to buy bonds yielding below the deposit rate. Regarding the future ECB QE purchases, the latest communication from the ECB shows it is very reluctant to allow a change to the 33% issue/issuer limit due to both legal and price formation issues. ( Danske Research Team ).

Fundamentals :

1- EUR- ECB interest rate decision at 12:45 PM GMT.

2- EUR- Draghi speech at 1:30 PM GMT.

3- USD- Unemployment claims at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Daily Pp 1.0550

Resistance levels : R1 1.0573 , R2 1.0608 , R3 1.0646

Support levels : S1 1.0522, S2 1.0480, S3 1.0428

Remark : ECB interest rates are highly to be left unchanged but the main focus will be on Draghi’s speech. Also US data today is vital for US Dollar levels, not to be missed.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

743

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 09th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Gold Finally Submit to strong US Dollar, Awaiting US Jobless Claims

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Gold abandoned the bullish levels after a long struggle with US Dollar with efforts to withhold last two weeks’ strong gains. Recent bullish waves despite strong US Dollar performance was justified to US uncertainties and political rift lead by Trump and his previous decisions. Last week, FOMC’s hints about March Fed hike increased the odds up to 85%, and Trump patriotic speech, both assisted to create the current stability and things are in Accord. Add to that, US strong data through this week boosted US Dollar levels and US Index peeked to 102.24 today, highest levels since 12th Jan. As a result, Gold shed -$60.62 since last week and had to give up the title being a sacred haven metal.

XAUUSD will undergo a further test today as US released Jobless Claims but the main and vital data will be tomorrow with NFP report. Both news will either dig a deeper hole with extension to bearish momentum and failure for support levels, or the yellow metal will make a short-term-upward-correction and save some dignity.

Fundamentals:

1- US jobless claims today at 1:30 PM GMT.

2- US Non-Farm Payrolls ( NFP ) tomorrow at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish

Daily Pp 1209.13

Resistance levels : R1 1215.10, R2 1227.20 , R3 1234.30

Support levels : S1 1198.60, S2 1191.07 , 1180.12

Remark : Look forward for US data today, but the main focus is on US NFP report tomorrow. Also, FOMC meeting next week where Fed rates will be released, not to be missed as it has a huge impact on all markets. Closing above R3 level is needed for trend reversal.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

744

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 10th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

NFP Today Is Vital for FOMC’s Decision Next Week

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Markets are poised ahead of US Non-farm Payrolls and what might come out of it but what makes it vital today is the FOMC meeting next week and its coloration with NFP data today. A positive NFP with strong input would increase the odds of Fed March hike and a negative NFP will decrease next week hike chances. But the main question is, how far will US Fed bare strong US Index levels ?

If NFP is positive today, we expect US Index to break above 102.24 yesterday’s high, with target at 103. A Fed rate hike will also peek US Index levels also above 104 level with additional bullish waves in the coming weeks as a reasonable market consequences.

If NFP is negative today, US Index will shift to bearish forces with target at 100.65 and extension of further selloffs and wash towards 99.90 level. Chances of March hike will fade gradually but markets are placing 85% odds for a hike next week and anything opposite to that might create a further congestion and US Index will suffocate at 97 level.

The main key in order to know how US Fed will play along despite NFP result today, are the levels or the range that the US Fed are seeking for US Index. Analysts from Wells Fargo, expected a gain in non-farm payroll of 210K in February, above the market consensus of 190K. Wednesday’s ADP NFP scored strongly 298K which increases NFP odds today being positive.

Previous comments of FOMC’s members, supported by Yellen and Trump speeches boosted US Index to enter the 100 to 102 level at which we think is the target that US Fed are looking for. A Positive NFP today will increase US Index levels and unchanged rates by FOMC will make a correction back to current US index levels which supports the odds of an unchanged Fed rates next week although the odds are 85% for an increase.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

745

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 10th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Forex Technical Levels Ahead of NFP Data

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Non-Farm Payrolls for today are talk of the markers and the possible outcome that will impact major currencies and metals. Expectations for a positive NFP are high today which will strengthen US Dollar soaring all rivals in the market.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.0629, R2 1.0685, R3 1.0689, R4 1.0717

Support levels : S1 1.0582 , S2 1.0551, S3 1.0522, S4 1.0491

GBP/USD

Resistance levels : R1 1.2213, R2 1.2272, R3 1.2350, R4 1.2430

Support levels : S1 1.2132, S2 1.2087, S3 1.2039, S4 1.1986

USD/JPY

Resistance levels : R1 115.62, R2 116.10, R3 116.46 , R4 116.93

Support levels : S1 114.91, S2 114.27, S3 113.83, S4 112.90

AUD/USD

Resistance levels : R1 0.7540, R2 0.7569, R3 0.7598, R4 0.7632

Support levels : S1 0.7497, S2 0.7471, S3 0.7449, S4 0.7427

USD/CAD

Resistance levels : R1 1.3521, R2 1.3561, R3 1.3615, R4 1.3663

Support levels : S1 1.3461, S2 1.3428, S3 1.3395, S4 1.3360

XAUUSD – GOLD

Resistance levels : R1 1202.81, R2 1213.0, R3 1221.49, R4 1234.23
Support levels : S1 1195.17, S2 1185.85, S3 1176.91, S4 1165.02

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

746

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 13th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

EUR/USD Surges on Collapsing US Dollar, Awaiting Draghi’s Speech

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EUR/USD inaugurated early trading sessions with an upward gap +17 pips and added +37 pips to Monday’s gains with 1.0714 Feb-8-2017 fresh highs. US Index continued the bearish momentum on Monday with 101.01 low after peeking last week Thursday to 102.24. Markets didn’t digest the strong NFP data on friday, scoring 235K compared to Jan 238K although forecasts were 196K. The pair failed to guard the 1.07 level, currently trading 1.0674 intraday.

Fundamentals :

1- EUR - Draghi’s speech today at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical :

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Daily Pp 1.0695

Resistance levels : R1 1.0708, R2 1.0742, R3 1.0802

Support levels : S1 1.0656, S2 1.0609, S3 1.0535

Remark : Although the pair has managed to demonstrate strong gains this morning, EUR/USD remains under pressure by strong US Index. Stalling below S1 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R2 level is needed for a short-term-correction and shift to bullish forces. Look forward for Draghi’s speech today and what it might hold as content.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

747

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 14th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

Sterling Diggs lower and US Dollar Inches Higher, Eyes on BOE Rates Decision

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GBP/USD has extended the bearish momentum today for the 13 consecutive session and currently digging for a deeper hole other than today’s 1.2109 low. Although a clear sky is waving ahead of Sterling given a green light by UK Parliament to PM May to release article 50 not longer than 31 March, another player ( US Dollar ) continues to pressure British Pound today with a 101.52 high and US Index is currently clawing for additional gains. on the other hand, other news is that PM May will reject the Scottish First Minister Sturgeon’s demand for a second referendum in the next two years. This was coming from unidentified government sources and reported by The Times.

The main Focus for GBP now is what is coming, between US Fed and BOE interest rate decisions. Forecasts are highly that US Fed are moving along with additional 0.25% hike to current 0.57%, and Bank of England to lo leave interests at current 0.25% which will boost US Dollar, leaving Sterling vulnerable for strong US Index levels and GFP/USD will suffocate with additional declines.

Fundamentals :

1- GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT.

2- GBP Unemployment Change tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT.

3- BOE Interest Rates Decision on Thursday at 12:00 PM GMT.

4- US Fed Rate decision tomorrow at 6:00 PM GMT.

Technical:

Trend : Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels : R1 1.2198, R2 1.2287, R3 1.2355 , R4 1.2436

Support levels : S1 1.2119 , S2 1.2052, S3 1.1984, S4 1.1906

Remark : Economic Calendar is colorful this week with UK and US Data, but the main focus is on BOE & US Fed Rate decisions. Keep an eye on US Index levels as its the main player in the market. A break below S2 level will increase further selloffs and wash towards S3&S4 levels. Closing above R2 level projects additional bullish waves and spark R3 level and closing above R4, the cable will shift to bullish trend.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

748

FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 15th March, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

FOMC Volatility With All Possible Scenarios To Consider

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Fundamentals :

Markets, traders, and analysts are anticipating FOMC Rate Decision today with high speculations for a hike, but the question is, will Yellen deliver? FOMC decision will depend on three elements. First element is Employment Rate and last NFP ( February ) result released on Friday with 239K while forecasts 196K, increases the odds for the hike. Also, U.S economy added more jobs than expected whilst the unemployment rate remains near record lows of 4.7%, below policymakers’ minimum target.

The second element is inflation, with personal consumption expenditure PCE index score last January 1.9% yearly basis, and PCE excluding food and energy at 1.7%, inflation in U.S has ceiled the 2%, lowest since five years.

The third undetermined element is Consumer Price Index ( CPI ), which will be released today at 12:30 PM GMT, and most indicators and analysts support a positive outcome.

Now we have combined these three elements together, the Fed Rate is almost inevitable with high forecast at 25bps. The question that rings in head right now is, how ill the market react? How far will US Index climb ? Where will USD rival bottom ?

Let’s draw the following scenarios and hopefully the image will look brighter.

Scenario one: Forecasts for the hike today is 0.25%, and markets have placed positions and traded on this fact, but does it mean the Fed increase is 25bps ? What if Yellen caught the market off guard and announced a 0.5% hike for current 0.75%? ?Markets would result with higher volatility and U.S index will ride a roller coaster with an incline destination and USD rivals for a decline one. Which means that markets are already priced in for 0.25% hike.

Scenario two: Let’s go back in memory for recent market behavior and history. Previous US economic data were positive but we witnessed a negative reaction for US Index levels. Positive NFP and Unemployment Rate, yet the greenback was shortened, which indicates the markets were already priced in for positive outcome, and traders are following " buy the rumor, sell the fact" move " .

Scenario three: It is never about a yes or no for a rate hike. The most important question, or the better question to ask is how many Fed hikes is there ? U.S Feds hinted for three hikes, but will they deliver ? Now the only concern for Yellen and Co. is how to avoid the case of negative reaction for U.S Dollar with a positive decision. The answer dwells in Yellen speech or FOMC statement and how will they approach other possible hikes. US Fed promised two to three hikes in 2017, with first coming today ( March ), the next should be in summer and the last by end of 2017. If U.S Fed want to avoid recent market behavior and dodge a collapse for U.S Dollar, then eyes and ears will be centered on FOMC statement, and a hint of possible hikes with a tiny detail on when for example this summer, this will back up and support U.S Index from rolling as market will have a target to look at and market will make new bets for market anticipation.

The opposite for scenario three, including Yellen previous psychological history leaving details vague and unclear signs of additional hikes will result in collapsing U.S Dollar.

Conclusion: The rate 0.25% is already established and its beyond skepticism. It’s not about the hike or not, its about how many hikes and when. Market will not focus on the decision of U.S Fed as much traders will concentrate on FOMC statement. The only solution to back up U.S Dollar is that Yellen will have to halt her ambiguous speech and FOMC must have a clear message and hints about upcoming Fed hikes.

Remark: Look forward for U.S Data today CPI and Retails sales both at 12:30 PM GMT which to be considered vital for FOMC meeting tonight at 6:00 PM GMT.

For more in depth Research & Analysis please visit FxGrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.