DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
Last Update At 18 Apr 2013 00:18GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
0.9294
55 HR EMA
0.9281
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Overbought
13 HR RSI
67
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
0.9433 - Apr 05 European res
0.9367 - Apr 09 high
0.9340 - Y’day n last Thur’s high
Support
0.9299 - Y’day’s hourly sup
0.9261 - Y’day’s NY res
0.9238 - Y’day’s European morning res
. USD/CHF - 0.9325 … Despite y’day’s brief drop below Tue’s low of 0.9208 to 0.9207 in European morning, profit-taking abv 0.9200 level provided support to the dollar n price subsequently rallied on active short-covering due to the selloff in global stock markets. The pair rose to as high as 0.9340 in NY.
. Y’day’s rally fm 0.9207 to 0.9340 signals decline fm Mar’s high of 0.9567 has made a temp. low there n as current price is trading well abv the 21-hr & 55- hr emas, suggesting intra-day upside bias remains for a stronger retrace. of aforesaid fall to 0.9387, being natural 50% r of 0.9567-0.9207, however, the high readings on hourly oscillators shud prevent strg gain fm there n renewed selling interest shud emerge well below prev. chart res at 0.9433 n yield a much- needed strg retreat later today or tom. On the downside, a daily close below 0.9258/61 (61.8% r of 0.9207-0.9340 n y’day’s NY res respectively) wud signal the recovery fm 0.9207 is over instead n bring re-test of said sup.
. Today, buying dlr on intra-day pullback in anticipation of such rise is favoured but traders shud not get over-bullish ahead of G20 2-day meeting.
[B]DAILY USD/CHF OUTLOOK - 0.9324[/B]
13 Sep 2013 [I]07:10GMT[/I]
Although dlr has recovered after extending fall
fm last Thur’s 6-week 0.9455 high to 0.9272 y’day,
as long as 0.9371 holds, aforesaid decline to re-
trace upmove fm Aug’s low at 0.9147 shud resume n
extend marginally to 0.9265 (61.8% r).
Trade fm short side for this move with stop abv
0.9371, break risks gain to 0.9395 n 0.9420/30.
[B]STRATEGY :[/B] Hold short
[B]POSITION :[/B] Short at 0.9340
[B]OBJECTIVE :[/B] 0.9270
[B]STOP-LOSS :[/B] 0.9375
[B]RES :[/B] 0.9335/0.9371/0.9395
[B]SUP :[/B] 0.9272/0.9239/0.9206
[IM] DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
18 Sep 2013 00:11GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.9263
55 HR EMA
0.9276
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
47
14 HR DMI
0
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
0.9371 - Sep 11 high
0.9341 - Last Fri’s high
0.9279 - Y’day’s high
Support
0.9225 - Mon’s NZ low
0.9171 - Aug 27 low
0.9147 - Aug 20 low
. USD/CHF - 0.9258… Despite dlr’s retreat after extending gain fm Mon’s 2-
week low at 0.9225 to 0.9279 in Asia y’day, buying of eur/chf cross lifted price
fm 0.9253 in Europe but failure to penetrate said intra-day high prompted
another round of dlr selling in NY morning n price later dropped to 0.9257.
. Looking at the hourly chart, dlr’s rebound fm 0.9225 to 0.9279 suggests
decline fm Aug’s 0.9455 high has made a minor low there n another day of choppy
sideways trading abv said sup wud be seen, stronger gain twd 0.9298/01 cannot be
ruled out but as the selloff fm 0.9455 indicates correction fm Aug’s low at
0.9147 has ‘possibly’ ended there earlier, suggesting bias for dlr remains to
the downside n measured res at 0.9313 (38.2% r of 0.9455-0.9225) shud hold n
yield decline later this week. A firm breach of 0.9225 wud extend weakness to
0.9171 (Aug 27 low) but as ‘bullish converging signals’ shud appear on hourly
oscillators on next decline, reckon 0.9147 low wud remain intact on 1st testing.
. In view of abv analysis, selling dlr on intra-day recovery in anticipa-
tion of another fall is still favoured. Only abv 0.9341 signals low, 0.9367/71.
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
17 Oct 2013 00:21GMT
Trend Daily Chart : Down
Daily Indicators : Falling
21 HR EMA : 0.9137
55 HR EMA : 0.9129
Trend Hourly Chart : Sideways
Hourly Indicators : Neutral
13 HR RSI : 53
14 HR DMI : 0
Daily Analysis : Choppy trading to continue
Resistance
0.9279 - Sep 17 high
0.9225 - Sep 15 low, now res
0.9178 - Tue’s high
Support
0.9093 - Tue’s low
0.9064 - Mon’s low
0.9016 - Last Mon’s n Tue’s low
USD/CHF - 0.9140 … U.S. dollar went through a ‘roller-coaster’ session
y’day. Despite Tue’s rally to a fresh 4-week high at 0.9178, price retreated to
0.9118 in Australian morning y’day n then 0.9098 in NY morning due to U.S. debt
deadlock b4 rebounding to 0.9175 after U.S. Senate reached a bipartisan deal.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, as mentioned in our previous
updates, dlr’s firmness suggests erratic upmove fm Oct’s 19-month low at 0.8968
to at least retrace MT intermediate downtrend fm 0.9455 (Sep’s high) remains in
progress n as long as Mon’s low at 0.9064 holds, mild upside bias remains for
further gain to 0.9212, (being 50% r of 0.9455-0.8968), however, anticipated
high readings on hourly oscillators wud prevent strg gain abv 0.9225 (Sep 15
low, now res) n reckon 0.9269 (61.8% r) shud cap upside n yield retreat later.
. Today, we’re standing aside in the meantime n wud look to buy dlr on dips
as only a breach of 0.9064 sup wud violate recent series of higher lows n higher
highs fm 0.8968 n signal aforesaid corrective rise has made a top there n yield
weakness twds 0.9016 sup (last Mon’s n Tue’s low).
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
05 Nov 2013 00:04GMT
Trend Daily Chart : Sideways
Daily Indicators :Turning up
21 HR EMA :0.9109
55 HR EMA :0.9085
Trend Hourly Chart : Sideways
Hourly Indicators : Neutral
13 HR RSI : 41
14 HR DMI : -ve
Daily Analysis :Consolidation b4 upmove resumes
Resistance
0.9225 - Sep 16 low
0.9178 - Oct 15 high
0.9152 - Y’day’s Asian high
Support
0.9091 - Y’day’s NY low
0.9071 - Last Fri’s European low
0.9024 -Last Thur’s high
USD/CHF - 0.9100 … The pair also extended recent upmove fm Oct’s 23-
month low at 0.8891 to a fresh 2-week high at 0.9152 y’day due to dlr’s broad-based strength, however, active profit-taking capped dlr’s upside n the pair ratcheted lower to a session low at 0.9091 near NY close.
. Despite y’day’s brief rise to 0.9152, subsequent retreat suggests 1-2
days of consolidation wud be seen b4 upmove fm Oct’s near 2-year trough of 0.88 91 to retrace MT downtrend to resume, abv 0.9152 wud bring further gain to 0.91 73/78, being 50% r of intermediate fall fm 0.9455-0.8891 n Oct 15 high respectively. Looking at the bigger picture, only a daily close abv 0.9178 res wud encourage for further gain to 0.9240 (61.8% r of 0.9455-0.8891) n possibly twd 0.9253, this is 38.2% r of intermediate decline fm 0.9839 (2013 top in May) n then twd 0.9365 (50% r).
. Today, buying on intra-day retreat in anticipation of subsequent upmove is favoured n only a breach of 0.9024 (Oct 30 high, now sup) wud signal temp. top is made n may risk stronger correction to 0.8991/93 n possibly 0.8952 sup.
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
08 Nov 2013 00:25GMT
Trend Daily Chart :Sideways
Daily Indicators : Rising up
21 HR EMA : 0.9157
55 HR EMA : 0.9139
Trend Hourly Chart : Up
Hourly Indicators : Falling fm o/bot
13 HR RSI : 56
14 HR DMI : +ve
Daily Analysis : Choppy consolidation to take place
Resistance
0.9304 - 38.2% r of 0.9972-0.8891
0.9251 - Y’day’s high
0.9217 - Y’day’s hourly res
Support
0.9134 - Y’day’s NY low
0.9098 - Wed’s low
0.9024 - Last Thur’s high
. USD/CHF - 0.9168 … The pair tracked eur/usd’s movement very closely in inverse manner on Thur. Despite dlr’s rally to 0.9251 due to the selloff in euro after ECB’s rate cut, profit-taking capped dlr’s upside n price fell sharply to 0.9151 on renewed risk aversion due to the selloff in U.S. equities.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, despite y’day’s resumption of upmove fm Oct’s near 2-year trough of 0.8891 to 0.9251 to retrace MT downtrend fm 0.99 72 (July 2012), the subsequent strg retreat strongly suggests a temporary top is in place n sevel days of choppy consolidation is in store b4 prospect of another leg of upmove occurs later next week, below 0.9134 (reaction low fm 0.9251) wud add credence to this view, however, 0.9071, being a ‘natural’ 50% r of the entire rise fm 0.8891 as well as chart sup, wud contain weakness. Looking ahead, abv 0.9251 wud extend subsequent headway twd 0.9365 (50% r of intermediate fall fm 0.9839-08891).
. Today, we’re trading dlr on both sides of the market n will sell on intra
-day recovery or buy on next decline in anticipation of another rebound.
[B]DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
15 Nov 2013[/B] [I]
[/I]
[B]Trend Daily Chart :[/B] Up
[B]Daily Indicators :[/B] Rising
[B]21 HR EMA :[/B] 0.9166
[B]55 HR EMA : [/B]0.9168
[B]
Trend Hourly Chart :[/B] Sideways
[B]Hourly Indicators :[/B] Rising
[B]13 HR RSI :[/B] 59
[B]14 HR DMI : [/B]+ve
[B]Daily Analysis : [/B]Choppy trading to continue
[B]Resistance [/B]
0.9251 - Last Thur’s 6-week high
0.9226 - Tue’s high
0.9201 - Wed’s high
[B]Support[/B]
0.9123 - Wed’s late NY low
0.9091 - Last Mon’s low
0.9029 - 61.8% r of 0.8891-0.9251
. [B]USD/CHF - 0.9178 .[/B]… Despite staging a brief bounce fm Wed’s low at 0.9123 to 0.9189 on Thur, renewed selling interest below Wed’s high at 0.9201 pressured price to 0.9137 in NY morning after Thur’s testimony by Fed’s vice chair Janet Yellen. The pair then rebounded to 0.9172 b4 trading sideways.
. Looking at the daily chart, as mentioned in our previous update, Wed’s
breach of 0.9134 to 0.9123 suggests upmove fm Oct’s 23-month low at 0.8891 has made a 6-week high at 0.9251 last Thur n marginal weakness twds 0.9113 (38.2% r of 0.8891-0.9251) cannot be ruled out but reckon 0.9091/98 sup area wud contain downside n yield rebound later. On the upside, a breach of res at 0.9201 (Wed’s high) wud confirm the correction is over n yield resumption of the Oct’s rise fm 0.8891 to retrace MT downtrend fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 (Jul) to re-test 0.9246/51 res area, abv wud extend to 0.9304 (38.2% r of MT fall fm 0.9972-0.8891).
. Today, buying dlr on next decline in anticipation of a rebound is still
favoured. On the downside, only a daily close below 0.9091 wud risk stronger
retracement to 0.9024/29 (prev. res, now sup n 61.8% r fm 0.8891 resp.).
The publication of the Bank of England is issued today. No one expects surprises in respect of monetary policy.
The upward movement is expected to be continued.
Approach to resistance level 1.6120 was carried out on a fairly small volume.
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
22 Nov 2013 00:34GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.9150
55 HR EMA
0.9146
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
44
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with a neutral bias
Resistance
0.9251 - Nov’s high (7th)
0.9226 - Last Tue’s high
0.9194 - Wed’s high
Support
0.9123 - Wed’s European high
0.9080 - Wed’s low (Aust.)
0.9029 - 61.8% r of 0.8891-0.9251
. USD/CHF - 0.9142 … Despite initial firmness in Asia y’day following a
strg rally fm 0.9080 to as high as 0.9194 on Wed, dlr failed to re-test 0.9194 n fell in Europe due to intra-day rebound in eur/usd, dlr fell to 0.9128 in NY,
then marginally to 0.9125 in Aust. today b4 staging a recovery at Asian open.
. Looking at the daily chart, although Wed’s strg bounce fm 0.9080 to 0.9194 signals correction fm Nov’s 6-week peak at 0.9251 has ended n re-test of this res lvl is envisaged next week, abv there wud confirm the MT rise fm 2013 trough at 0.8891 (Oct) has once again resumed, then gain to 0.9304 wud be seen later this month, being a ‘minimum’ 38.2% r of the MT 3-legged fall fm 0.9972 (2012 peak in Jul)to 0.8891. Having said that, dlr’s aforesaid retreat fm 0.9194 to 0.9125 earlier today suggests choppy consolidation wud be seen b4 prospect of subsequent resumption of aforesaid upmove.
. Today, although dlr’s rebound fm 0.9125 signals erratic fall fm 0.9194
has made a low, abv NY high at 0.9165 is needed to turn outlook bullish for re
test of 0.9194, then twd 0.9226. Below 0.9123/25 may risk weakness twd 0.9080.
The pair couldn’t continue its upward movement yesterday and reached the value 0.9124. The offset remains neutral and will stay like that, maybe with a little downwards, testing the mark 0.9100.
The clear break and day/weekly close below this level of the market could trigger further downward movement this week. The nearest resistance is at 0.9126, and the upward pressure is testing 0.9200.
As an alternative the pair can fall to 0.9090.
The CHF strengthened after the release of GDP that exceeded the expectations. In the 3rd quarter GDP of Switzerland rose by 0.5 % compared with the previous quarter when an increase by the same 0.5 % was observed - while expected growth was only 0.4%.
Now the price will continue to decline testing 0.9040 mark .Despite this, the chart formed a falling wedge which may cause the beginning of further growth scenario, especially if the price breaks above 0.9100 - 0.9135 resistance area, testing 0.9040 mark.
The pound also consolidated into a side corridor versus the dollar. Confidence to the sterling remains quite high due to the ongoing positive information on the economy and the absence of negative political statements.
The volumes of rising growth indicate a clear divergence. Therefore, this increase of the British pound may not be very long. However, the main target is the weekly resistance level 1.6500. Should the pair continue falling the target is 1.6313.
Non farm payrolls for the 22th of November totaled 316K vs. 326K. It is possible to assume that with the resumption of the weakness of the U.S. currency the positive data on GDP in Switzerland put pressure on. The resistance remains at Monday’s high level 0.9130.
The pair is falling testing the support level at 0.9040. Should the price break it the pair may go towards 0.8990. The correction towards 0.9060 is possible.
Swiss Franc finished the trading session last week at the high level. In general, investors remain cautious before Non farm Payrolls report in the United States that can fix the drop in unemployment to its lowest level since 2008 of 7.2%.
The pair is getting close to 0.8950. If it breaks this level the price will go towards to the October low 0.8890. A correction towards 0.8950 is possible.
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FRANK remains under pressure amid a weakening dollar against European currencies because of the uncertainty about the prospects for reducing the Fed asset purchases.
After a sharp drop last week, the pair is still close to 0.8891. This level was the minimum of 2013 and was reached in October. There is a risk of reduction to 0.8828 in the short term.
The main trend is going downside, the downward long-term trend is directed to 0.7837. Medium-term trend is also down warded, the goal is 0.9007. But the price falling is interrupted by a short-term correction, whose target is 0.9128. After the correction is over the pair shall restore a downward movement.
The growing is slowing down. The long orders target is 0.9094 and 0.9084. The correction or falling will send the pair to 0.8990.
Swiss franc retreated versus the U.S. dollar. FOMC minutes did not impact the market while the labor market data were stronger than expected.
In accordance with the protocol FOMC committee members see less positive from the continuation of the QE program; committee members believe that the program of asset purchases will be completed in 2014.
The pair reached a new high, and yet in no hurry to leave it up. The northern movement comes to “naught.” the correction toward the clouds is expected, the first target is 0.9090, the second will be 0.9040.
Swiss franc retreated versus the U.S. dollar. FOMC minutes did not impact the market while the labor The Swiss franc strengthened versus the U.S. dollar. Last Friday unemployment report showed that the rate remained unchanged at 3.2% m/m.
The northern movement comes to “naught.” the correction toward the cloud be continued. The pair may reach 0.8990. Should the pair break the Cloud down USD/CHF will return to the southern movement, the first target is 0.8950. If the pair bounces from the Cloud Up the targets are 0.9090 and 0.9130.
The pair keeps a positive attitude versus the dollar on expectations of weak U.S. economic data. Let us remember you that the dollar fell against most currencies after the U.S. Labor Department report showed minimal for the last two years, employment growth in December. This weakened the speculation about what the Federal Reserve will continue to curtail the program QE, used to stimulate economic growth.
The northern movement comes to “naught.” We expect the correction toward the cloud to be continued. The pair may reach 0.8990. Should the pair break the Cloud down USD/CHF will return to the southern movement, the first target is 0.8950. If the pair bounces from the Cloud Up the targets are 0.9090 and 0.9130.
The Swiss franc continued to retreat versus the dollar after the SNB head Jordan announced that CHF was still high there was no reason to cancel the exchange rate limit. Moreover according to Jordan an objective of maintaining price stability will not raise interest rates in the foreseeable future.
USD/CHF is correcting after reaching the resistance at 0.9060. The support is at 0.8980, the next support is in the area 0.8930/20.
The pair continued its growth, having reached the resistance 0.9090. This level managed still well with its role and does not let the U.S. currency to go higher. But it is obvious that “bulls” intend to retreat, therefore risks of the level breakout remain. The dollar can grow to the area 0.9205–0.9225. A drop below 0.8983 will weaken the position of bulls and it will open the road to the level 0.8905.
