USD/JPY Reverse and Bounce at 124.50 Resistance Top
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is re-testing the weekly bottom (green) which could provide support for a 2nd rally / bounce.
1 hour
The EUR/USD reached a confluence of Fibonacci target and retracement levels, which could provide support for a bullish retracement or rally. Typically a wave C does not extend past the 161.8% Fib level so a break below the wave C (blue) bottom could change the wave count.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD price action remains relatively choppy with the wedge trend lines narrowing in resistance (red) and support (green).
1 hour
The ABC zigzag (magenta) could complete at the Fibonacci targets and retracement levels of wave C and wave X. There is also an ascending wedge pattern (flat top, rising bottom) visible when taking the trend line support (green) and resistance (red) into account. A bullish breakout could indicate the start of the wave Y (green).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY failed to break above the top (red) which means that the price movement could be part of a wave X (lavender) of a bigger WXY correction within wave B (brown).
1 hour
The USD/JPY is approaching support trend levels (green), which will provide information about a potential bounce or break.
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is in a middle of a wedge formation (trend lines green and brown). The most recent momentum was bullish and could therefore suggest a bullish wave count.
1 hour
The EUR/USD is building a slow bearish correction which resembles a falling wedge chart pattern (light orange and green trend lines).
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD failed to break the resistance (red) yesterday which competed the wave W (orange). The Fibonacci levels of wave X (orange) and trend lines (green) are potential support levels.
1 hour
The GBP/USD broke below the support trend line (green) and could build a bigger zigzag correction within wave X (orange).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY is showing a rising wedge chart pattern, which is indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines. A bearish break could price fall towards the wave C (purple) targets whereas a bullish break above the top (brown) would indicate an uptrend continuation and necessitate a wave count change.
1 hour
Price action has been behaving choppily within the tight wedge which is common for a wave B (purple) structure.
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD currently shows a bullish wave count with a potential WXY (purple). The invalidation level is the bottom of the triangle (green). Today’s FOMC statement could have a major impact on the US Dollar.
1 hour
A break above the resistance trend line (orange) could confirm the completion of wave X (purple).
GBP/USD
4 hour
Today’s FOMC statement could have a major impact on the US Dollar.
1 hour
The GBP/USD news release sent the GBP/USD higher, which has been labeled a wave A (magenta) due its momentum.
USD/JPY
4 hour
Today’s FOMC statement could have a major impact on the US Dollar.
1 hour
Price action was very impulsive during the wave A (purple) and the subsequent triangle is for the moment marked as wave B (purple) triangle unless price manages to break above the top.
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD momentum burst has moved price up to the long-term 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (blue). A bearish turn around for a blue wave 5 could potentially occur anywhere between 1.17 and 1.18, which is a strong resistance zone.
1 hour
The strong momentum could indicate the potential for one more bullish push to complete wave 5 (light blue), which could turn out to be truncated (unable to break the top) due to the wave 4 (blue) resistance.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD showed a bearish retracement after hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A bullish continuation could indicate the potential for price to move up to the 100% Fibonacci target.
1 hour
The GBP/USD made a deep retracement back to the 78.6% Fibonacci level and bottom of the uptrend channel (green).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY’s bearishness could be part of a larger ABC correction. For the moment the wave count is favoring a wave 3 (purple) within a wave 3 (brown), which later on could complete a bigger wave A (not on the chart yet).
1 hour
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD bullish run has respected the long-term 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 (blue). The wave 5 could therefore turn out to be relatively choppy price movement as price retests a strong resistance zone.
1 hour
A deeper bearish retracement than the current 61.8% level might need to lead a change of the current wave count. The current wave count is expecting one more push up for wave 5 (light blue) due to the strong bullish momentum marked as wave 3 (light blue).
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD showed very strong bearish momentum yesterday when breaking below the support trend line (dotted green). The momentum is even challenging the next support trend line (light green). Due to strong impulsiveness the wave count has marked many wave Y’s as completed with the exception of the largest wave Y (purple). That wave will only be considered finished when price is able to break below the trend line and horizontal support (dark green).
1 hour
The strong bearish momentum is indicating the likelihood of a wave 3 (pink) followed by a wave 4 (pink) retracement.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY’s showed bearish momentum earlier this week, which is most likely explained by wave 3 (purple). For the moment the wave count is indicating that the current retracement could be a wave 4 (purple) after which price can fall for a wave 5.
1 hour
The USD/JPY is building an expanded wave 4 (purple) via a WXY correction (blue).
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD bearish movement has retraced very deep which therefore favors a completed wave 5 (blue) of wave C (green) of Y (brown). Price could still expand the bullish price action after completing a potential ABC (green) zigzag pattern.
1 hour
Due to the weaker angle of price action in the 3rd leg of price movement, the bearish 3 wave pattern resembles an ABC more than a 123 pattern.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD broke both support trend lines (green) with a 5 wave bearish pattern (orange), which indicates that an ABC correction is now likely. A break below the bottom (green) would signal the completion of the wave Y (purple).
1 hour
Yesterday price completed a wave 4 (orange) at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and made one more fall for wave 5. An ABC correction is the most likely scenario at the moment. If price does push below support then a wave extension is most likely taking place.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY’s wave count is indicating that the current retracement could be a wave 4 (purple). A deeper retracement than the 61.8% could require a wave count change.
1 hour
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD has bounced at the support trend line (green). The bullish bounce has strong resistance levels above it and a break of the top and the 38.2% Fib at 1.17 is not expected.
1 hour
The EUR/USD did indeed show a bullish bounce at the bottom (wave B) and is now rallying as part of an ABC correction (purple).
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD bounced off the horizontal support level (green) for the 2nd time which most likely created a double bottom. Once a 5 wave impulse is completed then the typical correction will occur via an ABC.
1 hour
A break of the resistance trend line (red) could indicate the potential for wave C (magenta) to rally higher.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY moved back to the moving averages and now broke below the support trend line (dotted green) which could indicate the potential start of wave 5 (purple).
1 hour
The bearish price action is either an impulsive wave (123) as indicated in the image or alternatively an expansion of the bullish correction. A breakout above resistance (orange) would indicate the need to change the wave structure from a wave 4 to a corrective wave W or wave X.
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD has bounced at the support trend line (green) but the rebound has been relatively slow which has created a triangle. A break above resistance (red) or below support (green) could trigger more momentum.
1 hour
The EUR/USD completed an ABC rally (purple) after breaking above resistance (orange). After that it made a deep pullback which probably belongs to a bigger bullish correction like a wave X retracement (purple).
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD price action is captured by a neat downtrend channel but it has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci target of wave 5 (orange). A break above resistance (orange) or below support (green) could trigger more momentum.
1 hour
Divergence is still present with the recent break of the bottom (purple).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY had a strong bullish rebound which increases the chance of wave 5 (dark red) failing to break the bottom - especially when one considers the big wick on the bottom of the last week’s weekly candle.
1 hour
A break of the resistance (orange) indicates that a wave (blue) is invalidated. The alternative is a corrective wave pattern or a truncated wave 5 (failure to break the bottom).
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD has retraced back to the long-term support trend line (green). This could be a hook back for another bullish bounce as indicated in the current wave count. A break of the support trend line would indicate a potential bearish breakout and change the wave structure.
1 hour
The EUR/USD is in a triangle chart pattern with resistance (red/orange) and support (green) marking the break zones. A bearish break would invalidate the current WX (purple) wave count.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD pushed lower yesterday but the oscillator has made a clear turn and is retracing back to the middle point, which means that the currency pair is in retracement territory.
1 hour
The GBP/USD is still moving to lower levels in the neat downtrend channel. However, a correction back to the top of the channel or long-term moving average is a decent possibility with the presence of double divergence and a small opposite momentum (wave A - magenta).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY seems to have completed 5 waves for a truncated wave 5 (purple) due to the failure to break the bottom of wave 3.
1 hour
The USD/JPY seems to be building an ABC correction (purple).
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD bounced at the bottom of the triangle support (green) and rallied to test the triangle resistance (red) as mentioned in yesterday’s live strategy webinar at Admiral Markets (click here to join next week).
1 hour
The EUR/USD bullish momentum could be part of a bigger ABC zigzag (purple). Using a Fibonacci tool in the middle of a triangle however always remains risky and price could easily retest the bottom of the triangle yet again. A bullish break above resistance (red) could see price retrace deeper versus wave 2 (green) whereas a bearish break of support (green) could see price start wave 3 (green) or C.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBPUSD bullish price action pushed well above the bearish trend channel. Due to the impulsive nature of the price movement the swing has been labeled as a wave 3 (pink).
1 hour
The GBP/USD went sideways yesterday which is a typical behavioral pattern for a wave v (pink). A break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level would make the count unlikely. A break above the bull flag pattern (dark red trend lines) indicates the potential for the start of wave 5 (pink).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USDJPY retested the resistance trend line (red) and long-term moving average (dotted purple). The bullish momentum could be strong enough to label the upside as a wave A (purple) with the anticipation of wave B and C (purple).
1 hour
On a lower time frame price has already bounced at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which could be a bouncing spot for the wave C (purple). Yesterday price action completed a strong wave 5 (blue).
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD direction will be dependent on tomorrow’s FOMC news event and potential interest rate hike in the USA. For the moment price is above support (green) and could be posting a new higher low as part of a wave X (purple).
1 hour
The EUR/USD could still be in correction within wave X (purple). A break of the resistance trend lines (orange/red) is needed before the wave X can be considered completed. A break of 1st support (light green) could see price fall towards the next Fib level or the next support trend line (dark green).
GBP/USD
4 hour
After the GBPUSD completed a 5 wave bullish pattern, it now seems to be correcting as part of a wave B (orange). However, just as with the EUR/USD, the currency market direction will be highly impacted by Thursday’s FOMC event.
1 hour
The GBP/USD bearish momentum yesterday was strong after finding rejection at the resistance trend line (orange), which could be part of a bigger ABC (dark green). The invalidation level of the ABC is a bullish break above the trend line (orange).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY remains solidly in its triangle and it had a strong bullish bounce yesterday at the support trend line (green). Price could stay in the triangle until Thursday’s FOMC event.
1 hour
The USD/JPY used the support and resistance for a strong bounce at wave X (blue) and wave Y (blue).
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD approached the 50% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance could see build a potential breakout. If it fails, then a bigger bearish retracement could commence.
1 hour
The resistance trend line (orange) could behave a bounce or break spot.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD respected the 78.6% Fibonacci level. Price needs to break resistance trend line (orange) before the chances of a wave Y (blue) developing increase.
1 hour
A break below the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave count.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY broke support (dotted green) but is not showing a lot of momentum at the moment.
1 hour
The USD/JPY is in a contracting triangle chart pattern.
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD has been going sideways during the last week and has not been able to break below the 50% Fibonacci level. A break above resistance could see price build a potential breakout. If it fails, then a bigger bearish retracement could commence towards the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
1 hour
The EUR/USD is showing a consolidation zone on the 1 hour chart.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD respected the trend line (green) and made a bullish bounce. Price is now in a contracting triangle with support (green) and resistance (orange) nearby.
1 hour
The GBP/USD is showing very choppy price action. The trend lines mark the boundaries of the contracting triangle pattern.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY bearish price action is moving down lower at a slow angle. A break above resistance (red) could indicate a chance for an ABC (purple) correction. A break below support (green) could price move further down towards the Fibonacci level.
1 hour
The USD/JPY has support and resistance trend lines nearby that mark potential boundaries of the triangle pattern.
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is moving sideways in between strong layers of support (green) and daily resistance (red). The current wave count favors one more bullish push to complete wave C (blue) of larger wave Y corrections.
1 hour
The EUR/USD bearish break could indicate that wave C (blue) is completed and a bullish break could indicate that wave C (blue) is still developing.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD break of the resistance could see the continuation of waves Y (pink, blue). A break below support levels (green) could indicate the continuation of the downtrend which would invalidate wave X (pink).
1 hour
The GBP/USD continued to build a triangle (green/orange) chart pattern. If price makes a bullish break above resistance (orange) then the Fibonacci levels of C (green) could turn out to be targets.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY continued with its strong bearish momentum towards lower Fibonacci targets.
1 hour
The USD/JPY completed a wave 4 (orange) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and seems to be building another bearish leg within wave 5 (orange).
Major currency pairs arrive at invalidation levels
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is still showing choppy price action on this 4 hour chart. Price remains entrapped the support (green) and resistance (orange) trend lines. A bullish bounce seems most likely if price manages to stay above the 50% Fibonacci level. A push below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of wave X (purple) makes the current wave count less likely and a bearish variant more likely.
1 hour
The EUR/USD break above resistance (red) indicates a completion of the ABC (orange). If price shows a bearish bounce below resistance, then a continuation of the wave 5 (orange) within wave C (green) is more likely.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD is trying to push above the major resistance trend line (semi dotted red). The breakout has been slow and sluggish so far and price is struggling to break above the channel (purple/green) and horizontal resistance (orange). A break above resistance (purple) indicates that the wave Y’s are not yet completed and that a potential change of the wave structure could emerge. A break below support (light green) most likely starts a new bearish wave.
1 hour
The GBP/USD has pushed for a new higher high and is moving up towards the Fibonacci targets. The wave 5 posted a higher high but the oscillator is showing a lower high, which is causing strong divergence (purple lines).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY heading towards the Fibonacci targets of the wave Y (pink) correction. It is close to challenging the bottom of wave 1 (red line), which is the invalidation level of the current wave structure.
1 hour
The USD/JPY bullish break of the resistance line (red) indicates a change of the current wave structure whereas a break below the support trend line (green) could indicate the start of a new bearish impulse.
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USDJPY bearish momentum aligned with wave outlook and Fibonacci
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is in bullish trend channel (purple) with resistance trend lines (orange) closeby. A bearish bounce would confirm the wave X (green) correction; whereas a bullish breakout would see the larger WXY (purple) develop towards resistance (red).
1 hour
The EUR/USD needs to break below the channel before a bearish correction becomes a more likely scenario. For the moment a bearish ABC (orange) could be taking place but the wave count is vulnerable to change if price stays in the channel and/or breaks above the 100% level.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD seems to have completed the bullish ABC zigzag at horizontal resistance (red). Price is now testing the inner support trend line (green) and a bearish break could indicate a change to a downtrend. A break above resistance invalidates the current wave structure and indicates the potential for an uptrend.
1 hour
The GBP/USD seems to have completed 5 bullish waves within wave C (blue). Price is now respecting a layer of support (green) and has resistance above it. Price will need to break below support before a bearish momentum could start.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY is moving down lower with lots of bearish momentum. Price was not able to break above resistance, which was in accordance with the wave analysis of the previous 2 weeks.
1 hour
The USD/JPY made a bearish break below the support trend lines (dotted green) and seems to be starting a new bearish impulse.
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EURUSD, USDJPY finally display flavours of momentum
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD has indeed showed a continuation of the uptrend within the waves Y as indicated last week. Price is now reached a heavy resistance zone (red). A break above it could see price continue towards the Fibonacci targets.
1 hour
The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and made a strong bullish impulse which seems best explained by a wave 3 (grey). Price could retrace for a wave 4 (grey) but must not retrace deeper than the 61.8% Fibonacci level otherwise the wave count is invalidated.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD remains in an uptrend as long as price stays above the support trend line (green). Price is showing signs of struggle now at the horizontal resistance (red).
1 hour
The GBP/USD is showing choppy price action since the break of the inner resistance line (dotted orange), which can be explained by an ending diagonal (purple 5 wave). Whether wave 5 has been completed remains to be seen and price could push higher if it stays above the support trend line (green). A bearish break could lead to a bearish ABC (orange) or 123.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY has reached a large 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B (sea green), which could initiate a bullish rally or a correction.
1 hour
The USD/JPY could extend the 5th wave with an extension due to strong bearish momentum and lack of divergence via a wave 4 and 5 (orange). A break above the 61.8% of wave 4 makes the current wave count unlikely.
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EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD remains above the support trend line (solid green), which could mark the difference between a retracement (for more upside) or a reversal (for more downside). For the moment a bearish ABC (blue) pattern seems the most likely path of least resistance.
1 hour
The EUR/USD is building a descending wedge chart pattern (orange/green). The EUR/USD break above resistance (orange) could indicate the end of the ABC (blue), although the Fibonacci levels of B vs A could still play a role. A break below support (green) could indicate the continuation of an ABC zigzag towards Fibonacci targets C vs A.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD’s has respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave B vs A. A break of the support trend line would confirm the downtrend on the GBP/USD whereas a bounce at support could indicate the completion of the ABC (pink) and an expansion of the uptrend.
1 hour
The GBP/USD completed an ABC (blue) within wave B (pink). A bullish break above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate a completion of wave C (pink). A bearish break below the support trend lines (green) could price expand wave A (pink) lower.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY is building an ascending wedge triangle chart pattern (red/blue). A bullish break of the triangle could indicate a trend change (from down trend to uptrend) whereas a bearish break of the triangle could see a downtrend continuation unfold.
1 hour
The USD/JPY attempted to break above the resistance trend line (red) but has failed several times. A successful attempt could see the continuation of wave C. The other likely wave count is the start of an impulsive wave count via 123 (purple).
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD is testing the resistance trend line of the downtrend channel (red/green). A bullish break, however, does not automatically translate into the end of the downtrend itself (see wave 4 on 1 hour chart). The 123 (purple) becomes more likely than an ABC if price manages to extend beyond the 161.8% Fibonacci target.
1 hour
The EUR/USD seems to have completed multiple wave 5s yesterday and price has now broken above a 1 hour resistance trend line (dotted red). The current retracement could be part of a wave 4 (green) which could see resistance confluence (orange box) 38.2% Fib level. A break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 4 vs 3 would make a wave 4 (green) less likely.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD bullish price action had sufficient momentum to break above the long-term resistance trend line (dotted red). The wave count has been changed to a bullish ABC zigzag (pink) reflect the bullish breakout.
1 hour
The GBP/USD strong bullish momentum saw continuation after breaking the trend line. Price could face strong resistance at the confluence of the previous top (red) and 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A.
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY failed to break above the resistance trend line (red) for a bullish breakout. The wave has been labeled as wave 5 (purple) due to the internal 5 wave structure which is visible on the 1 hour chart. A break of support (blue) would confirm the development of wave 2 (purple) correction. A breakout above the resistance would indicate an expansion of wave 5 (purple).
1 hour
The USD/JPY completed 5 bullish waves within wave 5 (blue). The 5th wave did not break the previous top which is called a “truncated” 5th wave. The current wave count suggests a bearish correction, which would be invalidated if price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 4 vs 3. In that case, the alternative scenario is that the currently marked bearish 123 (brown) would turn into an ABC completing a wave 2 (green) as part of an extended wave 1-2 (green).
EUR/USD
4 hour
The EUR/USD downtrend continues lower after making a retracement and breaking support (dotted green). A bearish 123 (purple) becomes more likely when price is able to break below the 161.8% Fibonacci target.
1 hour
The EUR/USD broke below the support trend line (dotted green) and is building a bearish 3rd wave (orange). Once the wave 3 is completed then a slow and gradual wave 4 correction is expected.
GBP/USD
4 hour
The GBP/USD failed to break the horizontal resistance (red). The broken resistance (dotted red) has now turned into a potential support level in the development of wave C (pink). The triangle pattern seems to be confirming the corrective mode at the moment.
1 hour
The GBP/USD seems to have made an ABC (grey) correction within the wave 4 retracement (green) as long as price stays above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A break of the resistance trend line (red) of the triangle helps confirm the start of wave 5 (green).
USD/JPY
4 hour
The USD/JPY broke the resistance (dotted red) of the contracting triangle chart pattern. Price is now moving higher as part of the wave 5 (purple).
1 hour
The USD/JPY broke above resistance (red) and price is now moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (purple).
