Daily Wave Analysis By Admiral Markets

[JoshDavis]

GBP/USD Bearish ABC Zigzag Challenges 1.25 Support

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is in a bearish channel (blue/brown lines) which could be part of a larger complex correction as indicated by the support (green) and resistance (red) trend lines.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building an ABC bearish zigzag (orange) within a downtrend channel (brown/blue lines). A break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave B vs A invalidates the ABC bearish zigzag and indicates a potential bullish breakout scenario above the bearish channel. A break below the support trend line (green) could see price retest the bottom of the channel (blue).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD completed a 2nd wave (blue) as expected near resistance (red) and made one more lower low. The bearish price action however only reached the 100% Fibonacci target of wave 3 vs 1. This could either be explained by the fact that A) price is building an bearish ABC zigzag (not a 123) or price is expanding the wave 3 (blue) via an internal 5 wave (see 1 hour chart).

1 hour

For the moment the assumption in this 1 hour chart is that the EUR/USD is building a wave 2 (orange) within wave 3 (blue). The invalidation level of this wave count is a break above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke back below the support trend line (dotted blue) and previous top (dotted green) which invalidated a potential bullish 5 wave. The alternative is an ABC (orange) zigzag within a larger wave 4 (purple) correction.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building an ABC (orange) bearish zigzag within wave Y (brown).

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[JoshDavis]

US Dollar Struggles to Find Strength during January

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD turned around – yet again – for one more bullish push higher. The price action, however, remains very choppy and corrective. Price has also reached the next Fibonacci resistance: the 88.6% level. A break above the 88.6% makes a wave 2 (brown) unlikely and a break above 100% invalidates this wave structure. A break below support could spark waves 3.

1 hour

The EUR/USD bearish price action was an ABC correction (green) and price could have completed a bullish ABC correction too. The wave C (green) could continue higher if price breaks above resistance (red) and the 138.2% Fibonacci.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the bearish channel (dotted brown line). The price action in the channel is relatively choppy compared to the bullish price action and hence the wave count has been changed to reflect a potential bullish (green) wave count within wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could expand the wave B (green) correction via an expanded WXY (blue) correction. A break above the 138.2% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave X vs W.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY made another attempt to reach the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (purple). Either the 38.2% or 50% are likely bounce spots for such a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building an ABC (orange) bearish zigzag within wave Y (brown).

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[JoshDavis]

GBP/USD Builds Rising Wedge Chart Pattern at 100% Fibonacci

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is retesting the resistance trend line (red). A bearish bounce could confirm a wave X (blue) and see price test the Fibonacci levels of wave B (green). A break above the 138.2% Fibonacci level of wave X vs W invalidates wave X (blue) and makes an uptrend likely.

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to be building a rising wedge chart pattern (red/green). A breakout (arrows) could occur to both sides of the support and resistance trend lines.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD showed a bearish bounce as expected at the 88.6% level resistance level. The bearish bounce however has been choppy and mild. A break above the 88.6% makes a wave 2 (brown) unlikely and a break above 100% invalidates this wave structure. A break below support (blue) could spark wave 3 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is showing hesitation when developing bearish price action and is finding support along the way. Price bounced at the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of wave X vs W and is now retesting the resistance trend line (red).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). Either the 38.2% or 50% are likely bounce spots for such a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a bearish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave Y (blue).

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[JoshDavis]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Break Wedge and Decline with 5 Waves

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD showed a 2nd bearish bounce at the 88.6% level resistance level, which keeps the wave 2 (brown) structure intact. A break below the support (blue) trend line is needed before a bearish breakout is possible.

1 hour

The EUR/USD is completing a bearish 5 wave pattern (blue) which could be either a wave A or 1 (purple).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD showed a bearish bounce at the resistance trend line (red) and Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W. Price is now retesting the support trend line (blue) which is a bounce or break zone. A bearish breakout could price test the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD broke below the rising wedge chart pattern (dotted greens) and fall impulsively in 5 bearish waves (grey). This price action could either be a wave 1 or wave A (purple) and a bullish bounce could be part of wave 2 or B (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (purple) could stop price from moving higher but is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). Either the 38.2% or 50% are likely bounce spots for such a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) and is building a bullish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave X (brown). A break above the next resistance trend line (red) could price test the Fibonacci levels of wave C vs A.

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[JoshDavis]

EUR/USD Builds Head and Shoulders Pattern at 78.6% Fibonacci

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is retesting the 88.6% level resistance level, which is part of the wave 2 (brown) structure. A break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave 2 (brown) whereas a break below the support (blue) trend line is needed before a bearish breakout is possible.

1 hour

The EUR/USD could be building a pullback via a wave 2 (purple). This wave structure is also invalided if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 whereas a bearish break below support (blue) could see a wave 3 (purple) develop. The tops could also be building a head and shoulders reversal chart pattern (purple circles). The support (blue) and resistance (red) trend lines also look like rising wedge chart pattern.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a bearish retracement at the resistance trend line (red). A bearish breakout could price test the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (blue) whereas a bullish breakout could price develop within wave Y (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD price action seems to be either a wave 1 or wave A (purple) and a bullish bounce could be part of wave 2 or B (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (purple) could stop price from moving higher but is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a retracement back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). The 38.2% and 50% are likely support levels to complete a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building a bullish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave X (brown).

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[JoshDavis]

EUR/USD Approaches Wave 3 and Fibonacci Targets

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD completed a bearish turn at the 88.6% Fibonacci resistance and broke below a support trend line (dotted blue), which could be part of a bearish wave 3 (purple). The most momentum should be expected if price manages to break below the next support trend line (blue).

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed a wave 2 pullback (purple).Price could be in a wave 3 (blue) if it manages to break below the support trend line (green). A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave count.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building a correction between support (green) and resistance) which is most likely a wave 4 (purple). At the moment a larger ABC (blue) correction seems likely within wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The GBP/USD price action seems to be in a wave A (purple) and a break below support (blue) could indicate a continuation towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 5 vs 1+3. A break above resistance (orange) could start wave B (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave B (purple) should become resistance but the structure is invalidated if price breaks above the 100% Fibonacci level.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a retracement back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (purple). The 38.2% and 50% are likely support levels to complete a wave 4 (purple).

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke below the support trend line (dotted blue) and has completed the bullish ABC (orange) zigzag within wave X (brown). Price could now be building a bearish ABC zigzag (orange).

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[JoshDavis]

Key Triangle Pattern Created at 38.2% Fibonacci Support

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have made a double bottom at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 4 vs 3. A break of the bottom would still encounter a larger support trend line (green). Price needs to break above resistance (orange/red) trend lines before a new uptrend becomes more likely.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could either be building a new uptrend via a 123 (blue) or a larger bearish correction via a WXY (grey). The trend lines indicate contracting triangle pattern and are critical to see whether a breakout could occur later today.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD failed to break below the support trend line (blue) and to reach the 161.8% Fibonacci target of wave 3 vs 1, which means that another wave 1-2 (blue) is likely unless price were to break above the top of wave 2 (purple).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is most likely building an ABC (green) zigzag within wave 2 (blue) unless price breaks below the 100% level of wave B vs A.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is building an ABC (blue) correction within wave 4 (purple). Price could retest the larger resistance trend line (brown) and Fibonacci levels of wave C if it breaks the local resistance (red).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is probably in a wave 5 (orange) of the wave C (blue) unless price breaks the support trend line (blue) which would make a correction towards the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 likely.

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[JoshDavis]

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Complete Wave-1 and Retrace for Wave-2

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD broke above the multiple key resistance levels (dotted lines) of the bearish trend channel. Price seems to have completed a bearish wave 1 (purple) and is now retracing back for a wave 2 (purple). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) could therefore act as resistance. A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple).

1 hour

The EUR/USD could continue with its bullish momentum this morning towards the Fibonacci targets of wave C vs A. In that case a bullish 5 wave could be part of a larger bullish ABC zigzag. A bearish bounce at this spot could see price test and potentially bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave X vs W (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is testing the resistance trend line (red) and a bullish breakout could see price test higher resistance (red/brown). A break below the support (blue) invalidates the wave 1-2 (orange).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could build a bearish ABC zigzag (grey) towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) if price bounces at resistance. A break below the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1 (purple) invalidates the wave structure. A bullish breakout could see price move towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 vs 1 (orange).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke the support trend line (dotted green) which makes it more likely that a bullish 5 wave (brown) pattern has been completed for a wave 1 (blue). Price could now be retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1.A break below the 100% level invalidates this wave structure.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is probably building a deep bearish zigzag correction within wave 2 (blue). Price could bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (brown), especially if the resistance trend line (red) breaks with a 3 wave ABC pattern. A bearish bounce could see price move lower within wave 2 (blue). A break above the 100% level of wave B vs A invalidates it.

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[JoshDavis]

USD Decision Zone to Reveal Bullish or Bearish Trend

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to have completed a bullish 5 wave (brown) pattern as part of a wave 1 (blue). Price could now be retracing back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1. A break below the 100% level invalidates this wave structure. A breakout above resistance (red) could confirm and start the wave 3 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is probably building a bearish ABC zigzag (brown) correction within wave 2 (blue). Price could bounce at the Fibonacci levels of wave B vs A (brown) price could move lower within wave 2 (blue). A break above the 100% level of wave B vs A invalidates wave B (brown) and below 100% of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates wave 2 (blue).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD retraced back to the Fibonacci levels of wave X (blue) as price builds a WXY correction within a larger wave 2 (puple). The Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) could therefore act as resistance. A break above the 100% level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 1-2 (purple).

1 hour

The EUR/USD showed a bearish bounce and price fell back to the 50% Fibonacci support level. Price will either break above resistance trend line (red) or retrace to deeper Fib levels of wave X vs W.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD is in between multiple support and resistance trend lines. At this moment price is close the support trend line (blue) which could be used as a bouncing spot within wave 2-3 (orange) and a larger wave C (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD seems to have built a bearish ABC zigzag (grey) towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple). A break below the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1 (purple) invalidates the wave structure. A bullish breakout above resistance (red) could see price move towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 3 vs 1 (orange).

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[JoshDavis]

GBP/USD Bullish Pullback to 1.2325 within Bearish Momentum

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continues with its bearish breakout which could be part of a wave 3 (blue). Price is at the 100% Fibonacci of wave 3 vs 1 (blue) but it would need to reach the 161.8% Fib target before a wave 3 (blue) becomes more likely.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is showing bearish price action but a minor pullback could occur. If price does bounce then a bullish retracement could reverse at one of the resistance levels (orange). A break, however, above 1.2350 could indicate bearish weakness. A bearish bounce at 1.2275-1.23-1.2325-1.2350 zone could indicate a wave 4-5 (pink) within wave 3 (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD needs to break below the previous bottom (green line) to return back in a downtrend (waves 3) and complete the wave 2 (purple). If price breaks above resistance (orange) then price could extend that wave 2.

1 hour

The EUR/USD indeed failed to break below the support (green) and completed a bearish ABC (orange). Price could build another bullish ABC zigzag (blue) if price manages to break above the closest resistance (orange). A break below the support line (green) restarts the downtrend.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY still remains in wave 1-2 (blue) unless price breaks below above support (blue) which is the invalidation level. A break above the resistance level (red line) could continue with a wave 3 (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could bounce at resistance first before breaking above it, which could lead to another wave 1-2 (brown) structure within wave wave 3 (blue).

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[JoshDavis]

GBP/USD Bounces at Channel Bottom and Retraces in Wave-4

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bearish channel is neatly indicated by the trend lines (red). Price bounced at the bottom of the channel and is now approaching the top of the channel which typically acts as resistance. A bearish bounce could see price fall towards the Fibonacci levels of waves 3 (green) whereas a bullish breakout could see price challenge the Fibonacci of wave 4 vs 3. A break above the 61.8% Fib invalidates the wave 4 (blue).

1 hour

The GBP/USD retracement is in a wave 4 (blue) which typically retraces back to the 23.6% - 38.2% - 50% Fibonacci zone. A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level invalidates this wave 4 (blue). A break below the support trend line (green) could see price continue with wave 5 (blue) within wave 3 (green) of the 4 hour chart.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD indeed bounced at the support trend line (green) and is now retesting resistance (red) within wave 2 (purple). A break above resistance could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A bearish bounce and break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue within potential waves (brown/green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD seems to have completed a bullish ABC (blue) zigzag at the 100% Fibonacci target of wave C vs A.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is testing the resistance level (red line) and a break above it could see the USD/JPY continue with a wave 3 (blue) towards the Fibonacci targets.

1 hour

The USD/JPY could use the strong resistance (red) to bounce and build an ABC (orange) within wave 2 (brown) and retrace back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (brown).

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[JoshDavis]

USD/JPY Completes ABC Zigzag at 50% Fibonacci

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY seems to be retracing within a wave 2 (brown) back to the Fibonacci levels which could act as support. The wave 1-2 (brown) structure is invalidated once price breaks below the bottom (blue).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building an ABC (orange) within wave 2 (brown) and could retrace back to the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (brown).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD remains between a support (green) and resistance trend line (red), which mark the borders of the corrective zone. A break above resistance (red) could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue within waves 3 (red/green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is moving lower in a choppy and corrective way, which makes it likely that price is retracing within a wave B (blue). The invalidation spot of this wave B (blue) is the bottom (green)

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD continued with the downtrend yesterday and posted a new lower low. Price remains in a bearish trend as long as it stays in the channel and below resistance (red/orange).

1 hour

The GBP/USD break below the support trend line (blue) could see price continue with wave 5 (blue) of wave 3 (green). A break above the inner resistance line (light orange) could see price expand the wave 4 (orange). A break above the 61.8% Fibonacci level would make a wave 4 (orange) unlikely.

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[JoshDavis]

GBP/USD Bearish Channel Aims for 1.20

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD remains in a downtrend as long as price stays in the bearish channel (red lines). Price is moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 and wave 3. A bearish continuation could see price move towards 1.20 which is a psychological round level, previous bottom (green) and 161.8% Fibonacci target.

1 hour

The GBP/USD break below the support trend line (blue) could see price continue with wave 5 (pink) of wave 3 (green). A break above the resistance line (red) would most likely not change the downtrend as long as price stays below horizontal resistance levels (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is in a consolidation zone which is indicated by support (green) and resistance (red). A break above resistance (red) could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue within waves 3 (red/green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is in a bearish yet corrective channel (orange/green lines) which has reached the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave B (blue). The invalidation level of wave B (blue) is a break below the bottom (green). A break above the resistance of the bearish channel (orange) could see price move up in a wave C (blue).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY has completed the wave 2 (brown) retracement if price manages to break above the top (red). A failure to break could lead to an expanded wave 2 correction (brown).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a potential bullish 5 wave pattern (orange) if price manages to break above the resistance trend lines (red).

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[JoshDavis]

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Pullback to 78.6% Fib at 1.0750 and 112.50

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a potential pull back and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level could be a support level. A break below the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 2 (blue/brown).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be in a wave 5 (pink) of wave C (orange).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is testing the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level of wave 2 (purple). A potential break above the 100% level invalidates the current wave 1-2 (purple) structure. A break below support (green/blue) confirms a new downtrend within waves 3 (brown/green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD is potentially building a hook back within a wave 1-2 (blue) but a break above the 100% Fibonacci level invalidates the wave structure.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) which makes a continuation of the correction within a larger ABCDE (green) triangle more likely.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is building a rising wedge chart pattern (green/red) within wave E. A bullish break could see price test the 61.8% Fibonacci level. A bearish break below support (green) could see price challenge the MA (dotted purple)

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[JoshDavis]

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is probably continuing with an ABC zigzag (brown) towards the 50% Fibonacci support

level of wave 4 vs 3 (purple). Currently price action is building a sideways zone, which is indicated by

the trend lines: support (green) at 110 and resistance (orange) at 112.

1 hour

The USD/JPY is in a neat downtrend channel (orange/blue) that is testing a larger support (green)

trend line. A break of that support zone could see price move lower towards the Fib targets whereas

a break above resistance (orange/red) could indicate that wave 5 (orange) has been completed.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD could have completed the 5 th wave (orange) within wave 1 (green) when considering

the strong bullish 4 hour candle. A break below the 1.0570 bottom could see price continue towards

the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 (orange).

1 hour

The EUR/USD 1 hourly chart is confirming the potential bullish reversal. Price seems to have

completed 5 waves (pink) and has broken above resistance (dotted orange). Price could now be

building a wave 1 – 2 (pink).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD could have completed an ABC (pink) zigzag correction within wave Y (orange) of wave X

(blue). A bullish bounce could sent the pair higher to test resistance of the wave E (green) triangle.

1 hour

The GBP/USD is probably building an ABC zigzag (green) but technically it could still be a wave 4

(purple) too, as long as price stays below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3 (purple).

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[JoshDavis]

USD/JPY Breaks 110 Round Level and Arrives at Critical 50% Fib

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY broke below the support trendline (dotted green) and has now reached the 50% Fibonacci support level of wave 4 vs 3 (purple). This is an important decision zone because a bullish bounce would confirm the current wave 4 (purple) structure, whereas a bearish break below the 50% Fibonacci level would make a continuation towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement likely (plus a new wave structure).

1 hour

The USD/JPY is building a 5 wave structure (purple) within wave 5 (orange) of wave C (brown). The 5th wave (purple) is slowing down its pace and moving lower in a small channel (orange/green lines).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is pausing and moving sideways which could indicate that the 5th wave (orange) of wave 1 (green) has been completed. A break above the resistance trendline (red) could spark a retracement within wave 2 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD did not build a 5 wave structure but rather an ABC (pink). This is probably part of a larger WXY (orange) correction, which is why the Fibonacci levels of wave X (orange) and the support trendline (blue) could provide bouncing spots.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD broke above the resistance trendline (red), which confirms the completion of wave X (blue) and the start of wave Y (blue). Price could now be heading higher to test larger resistance levels (brown/red), but a break above the previous top of the triangle (red line) would invalidate wave E (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is probably building an ABC zigzag (orange). Within wave C (orange), there could be a 5-wave pattern (pink). The wave 4 (pink) becomes invalidated if price breaks below the top of wave 1 (green line).

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[JoshDavis]

EUR/USD Bearish Divergence Creates Bullish Break above 1.06

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is finally breaking above the resistance trendline (dotted red) after having built divergence between the bottoms (purple line). This bullish breakout could spark a retracement within wave 2 vs 1 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD built a corrective ABC (pink) zigzag as expected to the Fibonacci levels of wave X (orange). Price turned at the 61.8% Fibonacci support level and then broke above the mini trendline (dotted orange). Price is now probably heading towards 1.07, which is the 38.2% Fib of wave 2 vs 1 on the 4 hour chart.

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bullish breakout is still pushing to higher levels within a wave Y (blue), but the price is approaching larger resistance levels (brown/red). This decision zone could see a bearish bounce and turn, whereas a break above the previous top of the triangle (red line) would invalidate wave E (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD is probably building another 5 wave pattern (purple) within wave 5 (pink). The wave 4 (purple) is invalidated if the price manages to retrace deeper than the top of wave 1 (green line).

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY bearish breakout is so far not showing any signs of slowing down, despite the fact that price is near a 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (purple). A strong push below 109 would make a continuation towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement likely (plus a new wave structure).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could soon show divergence between the two bottom, which is typical for a wave 3 and 5 wave structure (purple). Price has also reached the bottom of the channel (green line), which could act as a support level. A bullish bounce above 108.50 could still be considered a reaction to the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 4 vs 3.

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[JoshDavis]

GBP/USD Final Pieces of Contracting Triangle Built around 1.25

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bearish bounce at resistance (brown) confirmed wave W (orange) and price has retraced back to the 38.2% Fibonacci support level of wave W vs X (orange). Price is moving between support (blue) and resistance (brown) and could be close to completing a chart triangle indicated by wave E (green).

1 hour

The GBP/USD could extend the wave X (orange) with a new ABC (pink) zigzag that could take price back down to the support trend line (blue). Price would need to break below the bear flag to confirm the correction (orange lines).

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD is challenging the bullish support trend line (blue). A bounce at this level plus break above the smaller resistance line (red) could see a larger retracement within wave 2 vs 1 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD completed a wave Y (pink) correction, which in turn could lead to a larger WXY (orange) within wave 2 (green). The wave X (orange) stays valid as long as price stays above the 138.2% Fibonacci level of wave X vs W.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY made a bearish breakout below 108.50 which makes it more likely that price is in a wave B (green). A wave 3 (orange) bearish momentum seems to be taking place as price reaches the 161.8% Fibonacci target. Once the wave 3 has been completed and the potential wave 4 starts, price cannot retrace above the bottom of wave 1 (red line) without invalidating it.

1 hour

The USD/JPY broke the bear flag (dotted green) chart pattern and seems to be building a wave 5 (purple) within wave 3 (orange).

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[JoshDavis]

GBP/USD Retracement Returns to 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.2750

GBP/USD

4 hour

The Members of the British Parliament have approved the Prime Minister’s plan yesterday to organise an early general election on June 8. The vast majority of the Parliament Members approved the motion (522 out of 650) clearing the bar of the two-thirds needed for accepting the plan.

The election news did not impact the GBP/USD as much as it did on Tuesday. The Cable currency moved sideways which is forming a bull flag chart pattern (green/red lines) in the meantime. Price is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (purple) and could show one more higher high if it breaks above the bull flag.

1 hour

The GBP/USD retracement has reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2750 which could act as a bounce zone if price is indeed in a wave 4 (purple) correction. A break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level makes a wave 4 invalid. A break above the bull flag could see a wave 5 (purple) develop.

EUR/USD

4 hour

The EUR/USD has paused at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 2 (brown) but a continuation breakout could see price challenge higher Fibonacci levels.

1 hour

The EUR/USD has retraced to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of wave 4 (pink). A break below the 61.8% Fib invalidates the wave 4 (pink) but otherwise a wave 5 (pink) within wave C (purple) is likely to develop.

USD/JPY

4 hour

The USD/JPY is building a potential wave 4 correction (orange), which would become invalid if price retraced above the bottom of wave 1 (red line). A break below the support level (blue) could indicate a bearish breakout and completion of wave 4 (orange).

1 hour

The USD/JPY could be building an ABC (purple) zigzag correction towards the Fibonacci levels of wave 4 (orange) where a break above the resistance level (red) could spark a wave C (purple).

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[JoshDavis]

USD/JPY Bullish Breakout above Bull Flag Pattern at 110

USD/JPY
4 hour

Yesterday the USD/JPY broke as expected above the 110 resistance (dotted red) of the bull flag chart pattern. Price has continued with its bullish extension in wave 3 (brown) and has now arrived at the 261.8% Fibonacci target which could create a potential retracement.

1 hour

The USD/JPY breakout above resistance (dotted red) has reached a main Fibonacci target and is therefore at a bounce or break spot.

EUR/USD
4 hour

The EUR/USD broke above the resistance trend line (dotted red) and has hit the first target at 1.0950. The second target is the psychological round level of 1.10. A break above that could see the EUR/USD extend towards the 78.6% Fibonacci level of wave 2 (green).

1 hour

The EUR/USD bullish breakout confirmed that the expected wave 4 and 5 (pink) were correct. Price is now stopping at 1.0950 but a new breakout above the trend lines (dark red) could see price challenge 1.10, which is a new resistance level and a bounce or break spot. Bears could probably better wait for price to break below the support trend line (blue).

GBP/USD

4 hour

The GBP/USD bull flag chart pattern (red/blue lines) remains intact as long as price stays in between those levels. A break above resistance (red) could see price challenge the next Fibonacci level whereas a break below support (blue) could find a bounce at 1.27 support.

1 hour

The GBP/USD has respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level but a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level invalidates wave 4 (purple). A break above the bull flag (red) could see a wave 5 (purple) develop.

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