Morning,
Just going throught the charts now. Had to pop out early this morning and get some personal stuff done.
I will post up anything interesting I see.
DavidHi David,
I found the thread on the other forum and have been fixed to the edge of my seat reading through all your golden nuggets of info. Safe to say Iāll be an avid follower here!
I just wanted to say thanks for your contribution to the trading community. It is a real pleasure to learn from you and extremely generous of you to give up your time to help others. If youāre ever in Kuala Lumpur, you can count on having several beers on me!
I really enjoy your teachings and canāt wait to put it into action. Thanks a lot!
Lyall
[B]GBP/USD:[/B] The GBP in my book still has some upside scopeā¦ I posted a daily chart yesterday which pin-pointed where I expected major/large sellers to come into the market, which was up near 1.5750-800. The 1 hour has been trending well this week, the current move down is still above yesterdays break point and today my BBZone is there.
[B]Today BULL/BEAR Zone:[/B]
The BBZone is constructed today using the 50-61% fib levels of the 18th - 19th July swing. It is also the 23% fb level of the bigger swing formed from 12th - 18th Julyā¦ there is also 2 technical supports there as well as the 100 hour SMA being located there.
[B]Risk Events Today:[/B]
GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing
EURO: Eurogroup Meetings (has potential to effect GBP, but not guaranteed to).
[B]Todays Play:[/B] If price tests and stays above the BBZone today and the bulls remain in controlā¦ look for the usual patterns on the 15 minute chartā¦ 1-2-3 pattern, divergence, engulfing candles, rail track candles. These are my fav plays for entry timing, but are not limited to!
[B]Breaking the BBZone:[/B] If price tests and breaks the BBZone, then we simply wait to see if it holds below, it it breaks and holds, whatch for re-tests of the zone as resistance to get short as the bears will take control.
Hi David,
Newbie here. From your point of view, is it better to plot the Fib retrancement on the hourly chart or the daily chart? Can you show a few examples of a better way of drawing Fib? Would be great to know the professional trader view of choosing the high and lows to draw a Fib.
Iām having problems making posts here as you can probably seeā¦
I use google chrome, and the thread posting box has went a bit nuts.
Having to switch over to Internet Explorer.
Price doesnāt need to move into the zone, it can simply touch/test it like the first trade on EURO yesterday.
As I repeatably say, the bias will only shift if price moves through the zone and 100 sma and holds on the other sideā¦ ie, sustains its move thereā¦ ie stays there.
A bias change or trend change can not happen without the zone and 100 sma being broken first and for price to stay on the other side. If price remains on the same side as the test then there is no bias change.
Fibs on both, not every one of them will be in play on that day. Most are on the 1 hour chartā¦ just zoom out a bit (1-2 weeks) and look at your chartā¦ clueā¦ only draw fibs in the direction that the market is currently traveling on that time frameā¦ ie if the defined direction is on the bull side, then fibs are to be drawn as supportā¦ so find the major swings that will allow this.
If the defined direction is down, then fibs are to be drawn as resistance, find the major swings that will allow this.
Today GBP chart I postedā¦ the current defined 1 hour direction is on the bulls sideā¦ therefore I draw a fib support from the major 1 hour swing fro the 12th-18th July, I also fib measured the 18th low and previous days move with fib support, as its a pretty good sized swing.
I apologise for interpreting your use of the english language literally (re āyour patternā).
lets get back to trading.
Hi David,
I know you dont trade australasia ccy but can you review the NU chart to see if i am close re my BBZ area? Using f38/50 of most recent swing & confluence with s/r & SMAs.
I had a look at gold, silver & crude light but they are all quite choppy - seem to be ignoring the s&r levels I have on my chart & there is no clear BBZ zone with respect to recent swings. Whats your opinions on these markets?
Also is EU BBZ still valid?
Thanks for your input.
Think Iām getting the hang of this now, have my Daily zone above which price had moved into on yesterdays up move, and tested the 200sma as well. Also have my 1hr buy zone which comes into the 50% area of the last move up along with testing the breakout top of the triangle pattern I was following. I assume if price doesnāt get to the bull/bears zone for a buy after US open then will leave until next week. As not long then to close of London session.
If I was marking up the NU chart then my BBZone would be around were you currently have it, but not bang on your levels.
I would fib the major swing 12th-18th July and also the most recent valid swing 18th-19th plotting 2 scales. I can see the 50 and 61% of the recent swing fibs 7.974 - 7.990, and the 38% of the 12th-18th fib is there as well, this also happens to be where the 100 hour SMA is currently trading and the 200 SMA is just below that zone but rising.
Obviously the major sings 23% level will act as support, but if that broke then I would expect a test of the BBZone to attract the bigger pro money. There is pro money all over the chartā¦ but there is different kinds. The larger institutions are the ones who trade the BBZoneā¦ the smaller funds and small corporates ect ect (still pro money) trade at various different levels.
As far as the other instruments you mentionedā¦ if you can identify that the market is choppy and there is no obvious or valid BZone or correction zone, then you have answered your own questionā¦ stay out and stand aside on those until the price action changes.
Hi joffie
Thats spot on!
I tend to do most (80%) of my business at the correction zones and BBZones. So if they donāt get tested then I stand aside. As I said before, I only buy low and sell high, and I only trade when the market comes to my defined pro money zones which places me in favorable positions. If it means I donāt trade for a day based on this, then big deal, when price tests or breaks these zones and MAās, the gains stack up. Just because you can trade every day, does not mean you should.
The other 20% of my trading is based on options/derivatives for longer term
The other day trading I do is order flow trading which is very short term day trading. But I havenāt done much of that lately due to answering questions and posting on this thread and old thread. This thread and last is effectively costing me money :19:
David
OK, thanks for detailed response. Is Eu BBZ still valid from yest (as there have been no new swings)?
I went to an IG FX seminar yesterday, the guy was telling everyone how useless Fibs are and people should not use them, and I did mention that if big institutions ie big money are using them, then its likely to be self prophesising and it woul dbe stupid (esp for a newbie) not to at least be aware of them.
The only interesting part was he mentioned their biggest ātraderā (he was consistently losing money) plays EU with Ā£29k a point. He has margin of Ā£50m.
I am a full time trader , dave is making sence lets just go with the program
Hi David,
My name is Sam, from Edinburgh. Thanks for all your posts so far. Invaluable learning opportunity! Iām working on condensing all your posts into a tutorial. Will post it when itās ready.
Just one question, why are you taking the time to do this and painstakingly answer all our questions? Especially as - as you mention above - āitās costing you moneyā!
Thanks
Sam
I presume that was David Jones speaking?
He has never liked Fibs and mostly recās S&R along side PA
Hi,
No yesterdays EURO zone is no longer valid as the pro money that was there has been filled, hence why price has consolidated there and not moved. If flow was sitting there, price would have moved already today. The EURO is horrible today, my opinion is leave it. If EURO moves from here then it will be fresh money coming in, but regardless I dont like it.
If the guy you refer to at IG was David Jones, then hes not the brightestā¦ hes an analyst not a trader, and he has no experience working for any bank. He works for a bookie and will tell you and sell you any old ****e to get you to open an account and bet there.
29k a point and Ā£50 million marginā¦ thats nice to trust a bookie which IG are with that kind of money. Would you trust a bookies dealing desk with that kind of doe and an indicative pricing structure?
I will be sure to tell an old mentor of mine at Barcalyās, Derek Hopper (35 years institutional trader) that fibs are useless and we shouldnāt use them. But my guess is that he will be busy trading Ā£200-Ā£500 million derivatives today.
Hi
It maybe costing me money, but I donāt exactly need the money Samyboy.
I made enough money in the city to cover me for 2 lifetimes.
David
Iām getting ask a lot of questions via PM about books.
My opinion on books is pretty much cold. I hate them, especially ones written by dealers and brokers or commissioned by brokers. They only have one agenda, and its not in your interest.
If I had to recommend a book, just one book and say I thought it was worth it and you would gain knowledge from it, then it would beā¦
Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications (New York Institute of Finance) by John J. Murphy.
Thats about the only trading book on the planet that I would say is worth your money.
David
Be careful you donāt just buy the āStudy Guideā! Itās the hard back book you want.
lets just stay with Daves program and not sideline as it costs him time