Here is an article from a source I tend to read most days: Article
The oil trend is been a powerful one over the past few days, a lot of retail traders lose a lot of money trading crude because of its volatile nature and tendency which lead to large moves in both directions.
I have constructed a correction zone which I believe is where pro money will be watching today and likely Monday if nothing severe changes in price action. (subject to change if not tested by Monday afternoon).
The zone is constructed using the daily and 1 hour fibs, I have the daily 23% and 1 hour 38% as well as the 1 hour 100 SMA close to each other. There is also technical support @ 99.20-89.80.
I think this would be enough of a correction to attack larger money. This zone if not tested today, should still be valid come Monday, but it is subject to change based on price action that takes place.
Same as alwaysā¦ stay above correction zone if tested and bulls stay in charge.
Move below and hold below the correction zone, then we will see the bears take control for a deeper correction likely down to the 200 hour SMA. where the daily 38% and hourly 61% is located.
There is current support @ the hourly 23% where a technical support is also located 90.85ā¦ if this gives way then the correction zone will be targeted.
You may also consider the āElliott Wave Principleā from Prechter.
I say that because it is a good book and also because of the one-two-three pattern.
if one can determine the top or bottom of o wave 2 he can feel confident to enter wave 3 and he also knows when wrong (the same applies to the corrective A-B-C)
why donāt we redefine this FIBONACCI and tell that are just a percentage calculation of the retracement and it serve to see IF a certain LEVEL will keep or not. THIS wold be the RIGHT question: this level off retracement will keep or not this time?
I think we should change the lyrics to that old bangles song ā¦ Itās just another manic Monday I wish it was Sunday
'Cause thatās my funday. To something along the lines ofā¦ its just another boring Friday, I wish it was Saturday because thats my beer and play day.
Anyhowā¦
The GBP is tedious today and Iām currently seeing no pro money in the marketā¦ hence why its slow, all the moves are retail driven today, and thatās why none of the moves are lasting and pretty much being faded by dealing desks (thatās their favorite past time )
I am Bijoy from India. Think that I can learn a lot from this thread. Thanks for sharing your experience. Please go on posting. People like me needs to know and study a lot from experienced and talented guys like you. Once again thank you for your efforts to teach us something for better trading.
Hi David
I have just taken a 40 pip hit this morning on a GU long. Wish I had been reading the thread beforehand!. I will join the thread and observe with interest
Price now sits just above the zone, will watch to see if bulls are here or the bears push price through. Getting late in the day also now, so may not get any entry now anyway.
The play book is outlined on the analysis I posted this morning.
If price reaches or tests the zone look for the patterns described on the 15 minute to get longā¦ie engulfing candle pattern, rail tracks, divergence, 1-2-3ā¦ those are my fav ones, but not limited to.
If price falls under and closes under the zone, the look for a test of resistance to get short.
I donāt know what else you want me to say Bijoymj. I have given the analysis and outlined the play book in what to look for and do.
Thanks for your quick response. I am looking for candles, 1-2-3 pattern, divergence as advised by your good self. I was just commenting myself the feasibility of taking a trade near to the weekend.
David
Are you also looking at Volume to judge if pro money is giving us a reaction at these levels. If so what level of volume gives you confidence pro money is involved?
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