Here is my take on the EUR/USD as of right now, 11pm EST:
Charles
I might not understand the B/B Zone correctly, I thought that if the B/B Zone is between for example 38.2 and 50 fibs, then when price breaches the 38.2 fib downwards again, and price is below the 200SMA and 100SMA that you then watch the 15min chart for a bearish trigger.
For a Long entry I would wait for it to breach the 50 fib, and then we look at the 15min chart for PA Bullish trigger.
Trades are not always based on the bbzone. In this case, I do not have a bbzone. I am trading based solely on the SMAās.
Charles
Right now itās formed a nice triangle, a break either way might move, or it may stick close to the 1.2140 option.
Charles
J
Josh remember the EU has been short for the last few days, i would not have taken a long on the EU yesterday unless i was looking for a breakout of the range 1.2078. Yesterday you could say bulls were only testing the 100 they broke through only with spikes and never found support above the 100. However a long possibly today seems more likly as price is consolidating above the 100 and the 100 has formed a support line. so we would expect a test of the 200 today if EU can brake above 1.21679 out of current range. However bad news on Greece again so dont know how the market will react to that. Maybe you jumped in without looking for the usual suspects first. 1 hour refering to in the above
Ignore this post Tradersan, on re-reading your post I can see your question is different to the one I answered.
Tradersan, there is a difference between a Correction Zone and a BBZ. A BBZ suggests a [U]possible[/U] change in trend direction, (hence Bull/Bear Zone) and must therefore include the 200 SMA within itās boundaries (38% and 50% fib). A Correction Zone need only include the 100 SMA between the 38% and 50% fib and is therefore a change in [U]bias[/U] only, ie it is anticipated that the trend direction will resume after the correction. Hope that helpsā¦also hope itās right!
EG - Yesterday morning the E/U was a correction zone as the 200sma was not in the zone. Cable was a BBZ because the 200sma was within the zone. i would post charts but once uploaded mine are dire!
Thanks for the info :32:
Thank makes alot of sense now!
So with the Eurusd for today, we are expecting it to continue upwards up to around the 200sma as only the 100sma is inside the Correction Zone.
yes we would expect a test of the 200 as price consolidated above the 100 with minor resistance at yesterdays High so that would be the 1-2-3 area likely the 2 being yesterdays high
No we are not expecting anything yet. The 100SMA is no longer between the 38 and 50% fib so we have no Correction Zone.
Technical Analysis - In all probability a return to the short side is expected because yesterdayās correction zone is only a short term change in bias. We could test the top edge of the zone but we would be looking for short entries on the 15 TF.
Fundamental Analysis - we are reaching serious lows for the Euro and most people are numb to bad euro news now so it takes much worse news to make the market drop than say it did 6 months ago. Therefore the market is taking every tiny bit of [U]good[/U] news and building a retracement out of it right now so donāt be surprised if in this case yesterdayās correction zone is breached.
That is why this is a trading method not a strategy. You still need to apply common sense and understanding to what is going on. At the of the day you have to use the 15 TF to read the candles and spot patterns that matter for entry signals and being in a zone is no guarantee that they will occur, just a probability.
BBZONES/Correction zones are just areas of confluence which could include S&R with MAās and fibās, it also doesnt have to be 38-50 it could easily be different areas, this would depend on the area of confluence. Your trying to find where the pro money is so you can buy low sell high. Once the price as reached at your zone your waiting for price to test it, break and hold or show adequate PA.
A move above or below one of your MAās isnt an automatic set up, its just to try and define direction and get a good location and define risk. From my understanding your looking for a retracement to take place back below or above the recently crossed MA and that to hold fibs or consolidate to take place above or below the MA. Then you drop down to the 15min chart for PA for entry.
If iām wrong please let me know David
yes BidDiddler, I did mean resistance turned support on the 1 hr, my apologies for not posting a chart. Luckily I didnāt take the trade anyway as price drifted down the wee hours
Great post and I agree
with all the bad news flowing its hard to just trade on TA only, news is having a huge impact on the Euro and from the sounds of it, things are going to get worse!
Please refer to this post by David.
http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/45864-david-jefferson-aka-rave55-technical-analysis-trading-method-17.html#post375162
Correction zone is 38-50%.
BB zone does not have to include those fib levels.
What does anyone think of the A/U? We have breached the 200SMA long. We have broken the recent high and come back to retest it as support now? Just waiting to see if we break the 61.8 fib at LO.
Hi traderjosh
My commisserations on your loss. I think the problem with your trade is not where you took it, but when. As David points out insistently, always trade where the pro money is, and there isnāt going to be much pro money about in the early hours (Iām in the uk), so unlikely to get big moves and price is likely to drift as we saw. I took that trade and lost as well so donāt think I will be trading using Davidās method after ny close unless its the aussie.
Iām in a buy already on this pair, using a 4hr zone I found support of this zone, then with a trend line break, these using my own trading, I saw price test the 200sma and expected it to break on the next test, now sitting at break even so no risk on the trade, now with the break above test above of the 100 and 200smaās I expect a continuation of a move up. Also my 1hr BBZ has been breach at the same time the 100/200smaās where.
Using this same method I am also in a sell on the usdcad and at break even, looking for the 200sma to break to the downside now for confirmation of bears in full control again. Here again I was in a sell before the 100sma broke, but this was using price with a 4hr BB zone I have usdcad within my 1hr BBZ so am wathcing closely to see if bulls stay or lose control.
I am also in a buy on the eurusd, from yesterday as I saw price making higher highs and lows, with a 1st test of the 100sma, I expected a break to the upside and a test of the 200sma, my entry was then on the retrace of the 100sma using the 15min chart, now also sitting at break even, but price still sits within the correction zone, so price may yet have bears back in control.
joffie
In fact the usdcad could be showing a bounce of the 200sma with 1hr divergence, so watching here closely to see if the BBZ holds in favour of the bulls or if the bears can take control.
Also price is starting to range in between the 100 and 200sma, so I will be looking for a break into one way or the other.
Iāve been watching it, been looking for some confirmation but donāt know whether the consolidation that exists is enough or if Iām late to the party?
Morning,
Iām mostly leaving you guys to it and Iā am watching and reading the posts. Most question asked are being answered by other members and the answers are perfectly fine, if one is wrong then I will make a post and correct it. But just now its fine.
Also when someone makes a post and says at the end of ā¦ correct me if Iām wrong David, I will also post if it is wrong. Therefore silence on my part means everything is fine so far.
I just want to see how you folks are doing it, and if grasped it correctly.
To answer one question about flowā¦ someone asked when I give 2 numbersā¦ ie last night USD/JPY bids @ 78.05 & 78.00. Is it only the top or bottom numbersā¦ These 2 numbers can both be traded as separate flow scalps. The 78.05 filled.
Thank you for being here