Hey guys. I have been actively trading (or mistrading lol) for a little while now and I have been learning more and more every day. I mainly trade with S/R levels, fibb lines, trend lines and patterns. I use stochastics and/or tha MMACD (from Tymen’s Trendline thread) as confirmation and ta look for divergence. I started a thread earlier called Current EU Setup when I saw a chart formation and continued ta post some of my trades and screenies on it. Instead of continuing to post on it (tha title isn’t very accurate now) I will post my trades here. Like any other log, I’ll explain my signals and why I entered and Ill try my best ta show tha outcome. I invite anyone with a comment or suggestion ta chime in whenever they like. I would appreciate any advice.
Ahhh!!! Don’t u just HATE missing opportunities?! I caught a few breakouts yesterday but I missed a really big one while I was asleep. From my screen, u can see that I noticed a smaller triangle form and breakout. I didn’t play that signal but I noticed a larger triangle forming and marked it off. It broke a lil later around 1.597 region. My entry would have been around 1.60160 if I followed my strategy completely for a gain of roughly 80 pips.
Edit: Fixed typo
This post is a continuation of a trade I posted on my other thread. I got a strong sell signal on 3 JPY pairs. In retrospect I def got excited and didn’t wait for tha confirmation bar on 2 of tha pairs. Fortunately tha break was against tha overall trend IMO so I made my lot sizes much smaller. I took a very small profit on one and lost tha other two. I made a good trade at roughly tha same time that dwarfed my losses tho. So tha leasson learned is NEVER anticipate… wait for confirmation, and look left. I noticed some consolidation taking place again so I marked it. That’s tha second smaller triangle.
Hmmm… bearish divergence on a few JPY pairs? I think u can see it around tha last two big peaks on tha two JPY screenies. Maybe that first false breakout I caught was a sign…
Oh, I guess I should mention that I consider myself an intraday trader. I use daily and 4h charts ta draw S/R lines and main trendlines. I then move into tha 1h chart ta look for patterns and more accurate lines. 30m chart for entries. I look for 40-60 pip movements with as close ta 1:2 R/R ratio as I can get.
Okay, here we go… I have a buy goin’ at .70970. Reasons: General uptrend, bounce near strong support (blue channel line) and above previous support (red line). Oversold conditions on tha stochastic. Plus (maybe only in my mind) there was just a rally upwards so tha previous downward movement may have just been a retracement. This one makes me nervous because of tha spread size in relation to tha channel. Tha channel is also pretty small. I don’t normally trade channels but my strategy gives me few signals so I figured I’d work on my channel surfin’. I lowered my position size and set a 50% T/P at 15 pips so we’ll see how this one turns out.
Edit: S/L - 20p, 50% T/P - 15p, T/P - 30p
Tha stop loss is right underneath tha spike a couple candles back.
Edit: Okay, gettin’ a bit more nervous. I’ve been in tha -6 (-) -10 pip range since I executed. I think my entry was a lil too high and I probably should have moved my stop loss below yesterday’s last swing low. I kno better than ta change my stop loss so we’ll keep watchin’. I feel like I’m about ta learn sumthin’…
Okay, decided ta place a buy limit order on EU at 1.34110. Again; not exactly my trading plan but I’m still new and workin’ out my specifics. I see oversold conditions on tha 1h stochastic. Bouncing near new trendline and above previous consolidation area (3/26 15:00). Positive correlation with my current NU buy order. This one may never get hit but if it doesn’t then I’m fine with it. Smaller position size and T/P target because it’s a questionable trade. Lemme kno what u guys think or what side ur currently lookin’ ta take on either pair.
Edit: I should have mentioned that I looked over tha volume of tha past few days. Most of tha upward moves took place on low volume and I noticed volume decreasing so that also helped me make my decisions. S/L on this particular trade is 30 pips with a 60 pip take and a 15 pip 50% position close. 60 pip T/P is kinda high but I figure PA should at least return ta retest tha high/ continue tha immediate upward trend. Like I said; may never get hit anyway…
Edit: We’re off ‘n runnin’…
Okay, so I mentioned that I missed a breakout on GC earlier today. Now tha pair is near a trendline of mine. It broke tha line but never showed a confirmation bar on tha 1h. Tha pair has also been ranging for tha past few days tho tha bias is up imo. I’m only lookin’ ta take around 30 pips in either direction but I need a confirmation bar above or below that confluence area.
Edit: Bias… up, down… tha more I look, tha harder it is ta tell. Either way, still awaitin’ that confirmation candle on either side.
Edit: … down, def down…
I must be excited 'cuz I can’t help but keep posting! I think posting my current trades will help me ta be more consistent with my plan and I’ll have an irrefutable history/ proof of my actions. Anywho, we’re approaching tha quiet hours as far as my two USD trades are concerned so I’m starting ta look for a slow creep upwards.:rolleyes:
Since I’m sittin’ on my hands right now, here’s an update on my NU trade. Not much movement from my entry, but I spy a symmetrical triangle forming. It’s kinda small but really tight. If I wasn’t already in a trade I’d probably watch this one. If u haven’t noticed yet, I REALLY like triangles…
Edit: Srry if I’m talkin’ too much but I wanted ta point sumthin’ out. With this new triangle that I drew, notice that an upward breakout would coincide with my current trade but a downward breakout would almost certainly hit my S/L, prompt a sell order, and confirm tha triangle area not as support but as new resistance… IF it’s not a FALSE BREAKOUT. That’s just my new guy take on it tho…
Is anyone trading NCH? I see a huge ascending triangle that could break in tha next week or two (bias is up but there’s a hard ceiling). I mention it because it is near tha top of tha pattern and I was considering a long term short (long term is a couple of days for me) There’s also some bearish divergence. It is in a consolidation pattern right now so I’m lookin’ ta confirm downward movement from tha pattern. Tha larger AT is not as wide now but I think I can pull at least 60 pips from it. Any thoughts?
Haha, I’m one of those ppl that enjoys reading charts… Anyway, here’s correlation in action. Also, I’m gettin’ a few buy signals if u look over to tha right. We’ll wait for these ta confirm. Current trades in NU and EU are up 7 pips and 13 pips respectively.
Edit: EU is playin’ around +15 pips so it hit my 1st T/P line. I’m at half a position and won’t lose too much if it turns back.
I wanna thank SDC for posting that thread on trendlines. I’m seeing things I didn’t see before and it works with my trading method. Thnx a lot SDC if u ever read this.
Guys, I’m itchin’ ta play this buy signal on two JPY pairs, but this is just a 30m chart. Stochastics show upward movement from oversold territory on both tha 30m and 1h tho… :eek: I think I’m in…
Edit: Sheeeesshhhh… Thnk goodness for confirmation!! Tha two JPY pairs I saw breakout just hit a hard ceiling…
Is smart money talkin’?! I’ve never seen price jump around like that on a 1h chart… went from +15 pips ta -3 n back ta +15 in 1 second…
Sooo… those two JPY pairs that broke my first consolidation patterns have confirmed on 1h, but since they bumped kinda hard, I drew new trendlines. It creates a triangle which I like a lil better anyway. We’ll look ta confirm breaks on these too.
Both NU and EU have turned against me. Not worried tho; they’re movin’ on low volume around tha same times movement has pulled back in tha past. I’m thinkin’ retracement. Let’s just hope my S/L will make it. Plus, I took 50% on both at +15 pips so if I’m hit then I didn’t lose too much 
Placed a buy on UJ at 93.280. Reasons: Broke consolidation region, confirmed. Overall upward direction. No overhead resistance for at least 30 pips imo. S/L 30 pips. T/P 15 pips. R/R is way off I kno but this is kinda sketchy because its not a triangle so it’'s not tha best entry. Anyway, I lowered tha position size as I do with most sketchy trades. Let’s see how this one pans out.
Edit: In retrospect I probably should have waited for a pullback since it wasn’t a triangle pattern. Hopefully 30 pips can weather tha storm. I changed my T/P ta 20 pips for a better R/R ratio
Pending buy limit on EJ at 124.980. Hopin’ a pullback might grab it. Reasons: Breakout of triangle in direction of tha trend. Stochastics leaving oversold area. My entry point is an attempt at tha best price. Price action has moved well away so this one may never get hit.
EG sell at .88990. Reasons: breakout of triangle. Confirmed. Stochastics trending downward.
S/L 20 pips, T/P 40 pips for both.
Got +20 pips on tha UJ trade.
All i can say is what a chaotic and messy chart you have.
Good luck!