Dead Pips

Well, I should have but as I had to help the folks the whole weekend I didn’t manage to find the time to put together my 4H trading plan so I’m not quite up and running yet. I’m thinking to focus on four standard pairs and then watch the other pairs daily for developments that might put them on my watchlist.
I’ve debated a bit with myself on which 4 pairs to go with and I’m thinking EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and Gold. I want pairs that have good spread the whole 24/6 and I also want pairs that tend to trend well. However, GBPJPY or EURJPY might not be bad either what with their ATRs.

Going to work on it for a bit tonight if them eyelids don’t fall down.

Welcome back from vacation!

Let’s trade the pants off that “market” thingie now shall we? :smiley:

Difficult to get entries when everything is moving without offering retraces to enter on.

I chickened out of a cadjpy short due to fear of the BOJ. That’s fundamentals and they’re not part of my trading plan… not quite happy about that, especially as the trade did what I thought it would.

You’re right that it’s virtually impossible to not subconsciously be influenced by fundamental views but it is my goal to try to avoid it as far as possible and just trade the charts. CADJPY is proof that it’s difficult and I don’t expect to reach any sort of Zen state, it will be an ongoing challenge.

I enjoyed your video Matt. Keep them coming! :slight_smile:

Clever thinking to make a vid instead of posting a bunch of charts. Oh, btw - what software did you use?

I’m sure you have plenty more readers than just me Matt. Plenty of lurkers around as we know.

Since you have a sound approach to chart analysis I’m sure more than one reader will benefit from your posts and vids.

Matt where you at? I have been lurking:D at your video and wondering when the next one is coming up?Always looking for bullets to put in my gun belt.:stuck_out_tongue:

A note from the past my workmate is coming over to currency.The e-mini experiment is on hold after a 5 percent set back on his account.I might learn something there,he loves fibbs.E-mini trading is like scalping on overdrive.I think he will like the longer time frames and movement Forex provides.

I hope you are feeling better.:slight_smile: I have a friend who lives 2 hours away and we were talking by telephone.Three weeks ago he got the flu and it knocked him out for 7 days.

That day my local pharmacy was giving flu shots so i got one.So far so good it sounds like a pretty strong one going around this year?Look forward to your posts cheers!

Nice video Matt! Sound is low though, I had to turn up the speaker quite a bit but the sound quality is fine.

That little indicator shows nicely that price does tend to react at these levels. Looking forward to installment no 3 already :slight_smile:

How about a discussion of the importance of the different daily highs/lows one gets depending on whether one uses London hours, NY hours or even asian hours to define the 24H daily high/low range.

In a way the weekly open/high/low is less debatable in that way although most people will probably follow the hours of the main money center, London, for the daily candle and rightly so.

How about a little something on choice of time frames as well. That’s an area where I myself have changed views a bit lately.

Didn’t mean to push you though, take your time! :slight_smile:

Well made points, as usual. I read your post weeks ago and then marked it as unread so I’d remember to respond later when I had more time.

Seems I never get more time…

On another subject, I am in the process of backtesting EURUSD 4H charts from May 2003 to date to get an idea of how my approach would have worked.
The hard part is defining a fixed TP. I’m recording four different approaches at the same time; 1R, 1.5R, 2R and 3R.

As usual I’m short on time. Just this weekend I thought I’d have some time but no, X-mas party, shopping, shoveling snow off of the garage roof etc and now it’s Sunday eve again. Crazy!

Anyway, hoping to have it done by the Holidays.

Hope all is well!

We’re well and truly into the Christmas doldrums now, with sideways markets, low range prints and less reliability of signals.

For me, I’m scaling back my trading operations now and wont be looking to pick up steam 'til after Christmas. Come the New Year this thread will pass the 2-year milestone - I believe that good things come to those who wait :wink: Long may it continue to evolve to provide a useful trading resource for you. Thanks to all those who continue to show patience and drop by to read the updates when they come and I wish you all a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Excellent post Matt!

These are all things that I wish I had understood from the beginning instead of having to learn them the hard way.

Having rules like that is all and well though, it’s following ones rules that is the real challenge in my experience. I’m good at it nowadays but that wasn’t always so.

Indeed. When work keeps me so busy that I have no time/energy for trading in the evening, I do miss it. Forcing oneself to withdraw from trading for a set time period is probably the best way to punish oneself for bad trading behavior.

Did you manage to catch any long EU action as per the levels discussed over at the ATT thread? Seems like it should have been a home run for you if you happened to be around the charts. :wink:

Yeah got in around the 1.41 which was slightly later than ideal but still a good entry. Managed to pull 1R out of the trade but got shook out around lunchtime as I couldn’t babysit and didn’t fancy watching a winner become a loser. If I’d been around I would probably have looked for a re-entry.

Still, a good 1R in the bank :slight_smile:

I was looking through my first trading log today and at the back I’d noted down some “Lesson’s Learned” from the period it covered based on the notes I’d made over time. Seeing these I thought they were pretty generic so figured I’d share them with you - my silent readership! :slight_smile:

[B]1. Do not live trade untested methods[/B]
I have always shied away from demo testing using a demo account and although I recommend it to others, it’s just something that isn’t for me. However this rule still applies to me and what it means is - don’t just back-test a method and then start trading it. Now, if I have an idea about a new or improved approach to the market I’ll back-test it thoroughly but then also forward-test it on paper by recording them as ‘missed trades’ (see previous post) in my trading log. Only once I had sufficient data and confidence will I then live trade the method.

[B]2. Do not trade into resistance[/B]
Obviously everyone has their own approach to the markets. However for my approach I’ve found that it’s best not to take a position when price is just about to head straight into an area that I’ve identified as potential resistance on the chart. It’s usually best to skip the trade until the picture becomes clearer - either with a reversal or a breakout of the resistance zone.

[B]3. Consider Daily ATR before entering a trade[/B]
The daily ATR is the average range that a market moves in a 24 hour period. If the market has moved 80% of its ATR prior to entering the trade then the likelihood is that price hasn’t got much further to go today so is it worth taking the entry? You’ll notice that this ‘lesson’ is worded as a consideration rather than a must, meaning it should form part the trade planning but not necessarily stop a trade being taken.

[B]4. Do not leave waiting orders after entry window has closed[/B]
Most trades have a ‘window’ of entry. This could be a rule such as it must be triggered on the next bar, or the trade is scrapped if the stop line is hit before the entry line, or that it must trigger during the current trading session. Whatever the rule is, any pending orders that are sitting in the market must be removed if the trade is nullified. Without exception, every time I accidentally left an order in the market and it triggered, it went on to be a losing trade. Simply put, if the setup isn’t there any more, delete the order!

[B]5. Do not add to a loser[/B]
This is also known as averaging down and simply put means taking another trade or position in the same direction as the initial trade but at an inferior price (lower than entry price for longs). If a trade is under water then obviously that means the market is not currently going in your direction - so why would you want to take another position? Only add to a position if the market is currently going in your direction (also known as adding to a winner).

[B]6. Consider exiting a trade if market trends sideways from entry[/B]
This is another advisory lesson and essentially means that if the trade isn’t moving then take another look at the market and reassess whether your original assessment still holds. A sideways market means that neither bulls nor bears have the upper hand for whatever reason and as such there is not a directional bias so potentially the market could break in either direction. Usually, a trade that goes sideways from entry ends up becoming a loser for me so there has to be compelling reasons to stay in the trade.

[B]7. When entering a trade ensure the target is a technical level, not an R-multiple[/B]
This came about because I tended to be lazy in my trade entry. It allowed me to set a stop size in pips and a TP in pips too so I would just set the TP equal to the Stop for ease and speed. The knock-on effect was a failure to properly assess the potential reversal points and not be fully aware of the geography on the chart. Without knowing the resistance points price would either reverse before the TP, or sail through the profit order thus keeping me out of additional profit.

[B]8. Always note the ADRs at the weekend[/B]
As the ATR became part of the trade analysis I needed to know what those figures were. However, laziness meant that sometimes I wouldn’t bother to update my figures and therefore would have to rely on the previous weeks, or older. ATRs will change over time, especially as markets go from stagnant to volatile periods, and so the figures used must be up-to-date otherwise they’re worthless. This also forces an adherence to a structure and routine. I also mark up my S+R areas at the weekends and if I’m not doing one, I’m probably skipping the other too. Failure to plan is to plan to fail.

[B]9. I need to focus more when trading[/B]
This is of course a very personal ‘lesson’ but I found that once putting a trade on I tended not to give it my full attention. This was almost certainly a form of psychological self-sabotage as managing the trade is far more important than the entry and skipping it means you’re a lot closer to gambling than trading.

And there you have it - the failings and the lessons learned from the first trade log I kept. May this help and inspire you!

These are good lessons.

Numbers 4, 5 and 6 are very important indeed. ATR and ADR have not entered into my trading yet although I know Tess & co recommend keeping an eye on them.

It’s kind of funny when I look back at my early trading days, I consistently went against your rule no 2 and I didn’t know any better. In fact I was sure I was doing everything right… when it was the other way around. You live you learn. Maybe, you lose you learn fits better for my trading though.

Number 9 is one I still struggle with at times. Sometimes I wonder if I suffer from computer ADHD, my mind easily strays into another tab. I’m determined to win that battle as well though. At times I’ve considered withdrawing from BP for instance, but I’ve decided that’s not the solution. The solution is learning to control oneself.

Call me lazy if you like but I feel that when someone has eloquently said what I think, it makes just as much sense to quote them. Magnus asked last year about my feelings on timeframes and my answer was broadly “each to their own, whatever works for you”. I still stand very much by that and have no intention of pushing readers to any particular 'frame - large or small. However if someone was to ask what my personal approach is, it would resonate with the following quote from Richard Schabacker.

“If a trader is willing to give a large share of his time and energy to study of the markets and of technical considerations, and if he has the proper ability and proper personal makeup, then it seems quite certain that he will make greater profits on the shorter time frame as opposed to position trading. Certainly, the possibility for such profit is much greater in short-term trading.

On the other hand, the individual who is unable or unwilling to give up a good portion of his time and energy to the study of technical considerations, who knows or finds himself erratic in his trading success or unfitted psychologically for short-term trading, will, of course, find greater profit, slower but more certain, by confining his operations to those for the long-swing.

Agreed, but I’d like to add “lack of available screen time” as another reason for choosing longer time frames.

I used to be pretty conservative, maybe even overly so, in the past when discussing what kind of ROI is possible to achieve on a monthly basis. If a trader knows what he/she is doing and able to trade shorter time frames the numbers can be very good indeed. The point is that few traders ever reach that skill level. Most strike out and give up long before.