No regrets for missed opportunities - on to the next setup!
That’s nice of you 
[QUOTE=MattW2009;181539]Maybe Rustam can find us a gem? :D[/QUOTE]
Yea I think it’s gonna be a while until I can do that 
Still, there’s a possible setup on USD/CHF. It’s not a great setup but I’m taking it so thought I would put it up. Can see from the Daily we’re testing an S/R zone at the 1.05 round number. That level is also on a pivot line and the 38.2 ret from the swing low of last novermber to the recent swing high, so to me the confluence is good.
I don’t normally trade H4 but the last candle has formed an inside bar, which provides a fairly low risk entry. I’m expecting it to bounce and go back up but i’ve got a buy and a sell stop on either end of it in case price breaks down the way.
Yea, that massive candle killed the trade 
Pretty demoralising because at the moment my losing trades are outnumbering my winning trades quite badly. It’s on a demo account but still quite annoying. Maybe i’m not being picky enough.
I don’t see any setups today and tomorow is NFP day so my paper money is safe until next week at least
I think Aussie interest rate hike happened to you. You know what they say, sometimes news works in your favor, sometimes the opposite. It evens out.
Don’t I sound like a wise guy 
Nice post as usual.
My guess is that almost all consistently successful discretionary traders combine technicals and funnymentals, perhaps in a half subconscious way.
Are you stalking a long USDJPY by any chance then?
I found and read a very interesting thread over at FF, one I suspect you’ve already studied - I saw you have posted in the follow up thread started by jarroo.
I’m curious about DIBS as I’ve been looking for something a bit less discretionary and with more frequent trades to supplement my basic approach.
I’m very attracted to the IB trigger as it does offer just about the best R:R one can find among triggers.
I’m thinking this might be possible to manage from work actually, worst case I’d have to settle for Oanda’s 3H bars and the weekly open instead of the daily.
To the question: are you trading the DIBS approach? If so, thoughts so far?
DIBS method I’m afraid was hardly a good method. Pretty average if you ask me.
lol, love the thread title, dead pips - classic!
Cheers!
I have to admit I haven’t gotten further than to reading the original DIBS thread carefully.
It’s funny because i had made a little list of requirements for my search for an additional trade approach that would offer more frequent trades. On that list I had; minimal SL/high $/pip value, high reward to risk ratio, robust/universally valid principle, with the trend, suitable for 3H/4H and higher TF, several signals per month.
It seems to me that DIBS matches all these criteria so I’m a bit disappointed to find out that it works less well now than before and that jarroo has abandoned it.
I agree with the free trade principle being one of the gems found in that thread. It’s something that I think I’ve known actually but never been able to put the pieces together. That’s definitely something I’m going to start implementing where suitable. As you say, some methods are better suited than others for that approach.
I’m going to go through the DIBS part deux carefully and see what, if anything, I can use in my search for a second trading approach to increase my arsenal.
May i ask what approach you’re using to trade the shorter TF that I seem to understand you’re focusing on lately? Is it basic ATT material or have you added any clever twists?
Yes, I saw that setup mentioned today actually on DIBS II. Funny how it collides with some people’s view that a setup should be considered void if it doesn’t break on the next bar… Different strokes…
I agree with the logic of the pin IB setup though and it’s something I’ll be watching for on my setup hunts.
I have to admit I’m looking at some options for shorter TF trading as well. My work hours don’t really allow it but in my search for a robust, universally applicable secondary trading method I’ve been trying different approaches on all sorts of time frames. All indicator free of course! Well, except jankones method where he uses two MAs and RSI. Not sure that’s my cup of tea though in spite of the pin bar trigger he uses.
I get what you’re saying and I fully agree.
We share the same foundation here I guess. My approach is quite naked same as yours. Just the S/R levels. I have so far failed to find anything else useful enough to incorporate it.
Even the “magic” MAs fail to impress me, with the exception of the 200 MA which obviously has a self fulfilling capacity.
I’m working on some of these points yet although in my mind I think I’m on to something. I’ll be bouncing some ideas off you if you don’t mind.
I picked up something from Peter Crowns that is so simple it’s almost silly, but still: only be willing to go short if price is below today’s open and vice versa. My perspective hasn’t been intraday so this bloody obvious bias determinant wasn’t obvious to me until I read his post.
The approach I’m considering will require me to take full days off from work but if I still think it’s viable after having put it through more chart scrolling etc and if you agree my head isn’t in the clouds, I’ll be willing to take a day off every now and then to test drive it.
I’m in no rush though, my goals and plans are still the same for this year - no lapse in discipline. Would be nice to be able to build a robust intraday method though.
I didn’t expect to be revisiting this post but the market is full of surprises.
The reason I’ve brought CAD/JPY up again is to highlight the power of support and resistance areas. Even when a market is in free-fall it will still observe the stronger areas and look where it stopped - that’s right, a zone we identified nearly three months ago. Even the trendline offered some resistance as price plummeted past it.
If you dropped down to a lower timeframe you’d also see the price interacted with the other levels I’d marked on the chart. As you can see, S+R is really worth getting a grip on!
Yes it is. In fact I’d go as far as to claim that it’s mandatory for anyone who wants to trade profitably.
Likewise it was beautiful to see USDJPY halt its drop almost exactly at 88.00.
It’s been slow because I, the biggest trader ever :D, have been relaxing and done nothing useful!
I’ll kick up the action soon though 
I love pin bars, especially on the daily and the weekly. I have 16 pairs showing on my chart software, and I check every day for their formation. Ditto at the end of the week for weekly pbs. Combined with swing hi/los, resistances and fibs, I have rarely seen them fail. I could easily trade just this price patterns and make a good amount of money each month, because the combination of all 16 pairs are bound to give atleast one signal a week.
I find pin bars often form on friday, and those are my favorite. After the low volume sunday bar forms, it just breaks in the opposite direction of the pin, and making 30 pips is so easy.
I found out about them only a while ago, but I’m glad I did. Searching and trading them has made me a patient confident trader.
Synergy
Ok,will endeavour to rejoin after an extended absence from forum. Briefly,I have been applying myself to T/a for 4 years , now disenchanted w it and now moreso looking at fundamental sentiment and price action. You have my attention. I am open to learning. Happy also to share everything I know so far.
Am currently finishing Louise Bedfords “The Secret Of Candlestick Charting” book. Also get Nial Fullers (learn-to-trade-the-market) Info on PA.
Outside bars often display a show of force, in one candle settling the score of the previous 3-5, so is kind of a substantial psychological statement.
To me there are pinbars in the middle of a trend which are rendered ineffective as it seems to have signified maybe bulls ‘testing’ new territory. price subsequently goes back there and more. These setups have cost me dearly in the past. Mind you to be fair, they prob used in isolation which is not good. So in conclusion a pinbar only good if nearing major S or R on an extended trend.
Keen to learn more. There’s definitely something here. All you need probably.
Regards. craigus
Hey Craigus, welcome along
Fundamental analysis is one of those things that’s hard to get a finger on. It definitely helps if you are ‘in the loop’, that is, trading with a company who gets involved in the market chatter and can pick up other trader’s sentiment. For us retailers we can only keep an eye on the bigger picture but it’s definitely worth keeping abreast of the main economic drivers especially when trading the dailies.
I’m currently working my way through Reminisces of a Stock Operator by Livermore. I have it on my phone and read it when I can so it’s taking me a while lol but it’s a cracking good book. Even though it talks about the markets from over a century ago, some of the fundamental trading ideas and ‘rules’ still apply today showing just how the old adage “nothing new happens in the markets” still rings true.
Absolutely. Pin-bars crop up all over the place but it’s only when they’re taken as part of a bigger picture that they mean anything. As you’ve found, location really is the major part of it and after a while you can start to pick out those that are really showing a reversal versus those that are just showing a quick pull-back and retest before continuing onwards. Of course, we can never get it right all the time but we can certainly skew the odds in our favour.
And the bucketshops that he used to beat until they banned him still exist as well although nowadays they operate out of places like Mauritius etc.
I really liked that book and it was sort of sad to learn how his life ended, something which isn’t told in the book for natural reasons as it is an autobiography.
Btw, isn’t the adage: nothing new under the sun.