Diary of a position trader

Ok, I finished my backtesting trying to apply the rules as Smith says. Using the last bar as a fixed stop loss, rejection rule as the book says, and trailing the stops using donchian 10 when the price is in better place than last bar, I’m not using ADX filter. I’m using daily channel 20/10.

I’m using the fartest point of the last 3 bars to define my last bar point.

This are my results from 2008/01/01 00.00.00 to 2013/04/01 23.59.59 (I’m going to update this post when I finish more pairs)

RESULTS IN PIPS

Symbol
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total

AUDUSD
1006
214
-464
-905
-189
-23
-361

EURUSD
2019
417
533
-281
241
1138
+4067

GBPUSD
1602
-443
584
1060
164
389
+3356

NZDUSD
3
531
-993
48
261
-89
-239

USDCAD
10
-131
-693
-1486
-252
63
-2489

USDCHF

USDJPY

AUDCAD

AUDCHF

AUDJPY

AUDNZD

CADCHF

CADJPY

CHFJPY

EURAUD

EURCAD

EURCHF

EURGBP

EURJPY

EURNZD

GBPAUD

GBPCAD

GBPCHF

GBPJPY

GBPNZD

NZDCAD

NZDCHF

NZDJPY

XAGUSD

XAUUSD

It’s also with fixed size lots. From memory Smith recommends a % for each lot size. This will impact on results also.

Test conducted with AUD/USD

Method 1
2010 545.88
2011 -828.24
2012 -566.28
Total -848.64

Method 2
2010 548.28
2011 -508.29
2012 -49.52
Total -9.53

Method 3
2010 770.72
2011 -522.52
2012 441.88
Total 690.08

Method 4
2010 174.28
2011 -698.68
2012 68.88
Total -455.52

Method 5
2010 330.28
2011 -1094.32
2012 46.08
Total -717.96

Method 6
2010 117.60
2011 -1528.56
2012 110.52
Total -1300.44

Which software? Forex Tester 2?

Yes, that’s how I’m applying the rejection rule. No, I don’t add another position on the second test, but it’d be interesting to backtest. I’m on the road for work at the moment, so I don’t have access to my normal MT4; I’ll give that a look when I get home.

Yep, my daily candles close at 00:00 UTC. I noticed that our results were rather close to each other!

Just a cursory glance suggests that AUD/NZD may work well for 20/10 breakouts, as well. I wonder what that backtest would look like. Very smooth pair.

I’m making various backtests while I download other’s pair’s data.

I made tests with 20/10 + ADX filter + RRR, and on EU and GU that gives about 20% more pips in the same time period.

I’m going to make backtest on all majors and their crosses, and probably on gold, silver, oil and other minors like usdmxn, usdhkd, usdsgd

Interesting. Was it the RRR or ADX Rule that made the most difference? I’ll have to go back and work on that, as well.

Hey guys can I ask where your getting your data from and are you back testing by hand or with a program.

Yeah that would be a good test, get loaded I say - to the moon! LoL
Thanks for the clarification, can you post what pairs you’ve tested and how are you testing.

[QUOTE=“o990l6mh;476012”]

Which software? Forex Tester 2?[/QUOTE]

Yes. ADX filter is dodgy though, seemingly you can install new indicators but not sure if you can use mt4 ones or if they need to be custom coded

Yes, you’re right. I also use Forex Tester 2 but I had not noticed this. The ADX looks like the built in one in MT4, which is faulty.

I’m no computer wiz, so I can’t fix it. But if someone knows how to they’re most welcome to help us convert the Wilder’s DMI indicator to a Forex Tester indicator.

[QUOTE=“o990l6mh;476510”]

Yes, you’re right. I also use Forex Tester 2 but I had not noticed this. The ADX looks like the built in one in MT4, which is faulty.

I’m no computer wiz, so I can’t fix it. But if someone knows how to they’re most welcome to help us convert the Wilder’s DMI indicator to a Forex Tester indicator.[/QUOTE]

I can program, albeit haven’t done so for years. FT2 stuff is written in Delphi which shouldn’t be hard for me to do, I’m on a week off next week I’ll have a plan then, I’d love to make an EA based in smiths systems, but that is far outside my realm of skills

Hi! I’m not forgotten the thread! I’m backtesting the channel breakout strategy on all majors and crosses, gold and silver and other crosses, with all the history I can get, but it is very time consuming and difficult. I’m integrating the MAE/MFE concept to the backtest to get the best results from the strategy.

When I have all the information I will complete the table and give results here.

Great to hear medi,

I’ve been on holidays for a bit over a week, so have been neglecting BP

Hey, does anybody look at this thread anymore? I was pretty interested to see what happens, but it looks like Cyco has already blown up.

Havn’t blown up, account growing - though the floating profit took a bit of a hit on Monday night (Aust time) due to too many correlated positions when US manufacturing data was released. More than half of this is back 24hrs later, though.

This is a risk I took with the understanding it could happen.

I have also started a demo account to try 55/20 channel trading using the Kelly criteria. Putting the formula on my spreadsheet suggests that with nearly 200 closed trades the optimal risk is 26.45%

[QUOTE=“Cyco;497221”]Havn’t blown up, account growing - though the floating profit took a bit of a hit on Monday night (Aust time) due to too many correlated positions when US manufacturing data was released. More than half of this is back 24hrs later, though.

This is a risk I took with the understanding it could happen.

I have also started a demo account to try 55/20 channel trading using the Kelly criteria. Putting the formula on my spreadsheet suggests that with nearly 200 closed trades the optimal risk is 26.45%[/QUOTE]

Id like to see the results of the 55/20 with Kelley. Any chance of keeping that updated here?

Great! This gives me hope :slight_smile: This (positional trading) is really the first trading system that actually makes sense to me.

Hi Cyco,

As far as I remember, the Kelly Formula calculates the size of risk per position. If that’s true, 26.45% is absolutely terrifying :smiley:

As you know, Courtney Smith said that half-Kelly is probably the much better option. What are your thoughts about this?

Good luck man!