Diary of a position trader

Sorry brother, your attached image is unclear in my small screen

mana41; I wouldnā€™t be too bothered about the pic, its over 12 months old.

What a week its been. After getting hammered on Monday night my account is up 41% from GMT midnight Monday to the weekend close.

Using Kelly I presume?

Thatā€™s without using Kelly!

I have been using Channel, Conqueror, and my ATR re-entry system (place another trade when the Conqueror stop comes past entry).

As a result I have several pairs with 3 entries, and several more with 2.

Do you think it is good idea to trade various methods? I only trade channel from Smith. Does the conqueror is adding profitability to your trading?

Channel is my most profitable method, and Smith says if you only use one of his that is the one to use.

However the Conqueror has a much tighter stop - which can be both good and bad - and if the trend is running then it gets to stop past entry much faster and multiple entries allow more profit.

The ATR re-entry system I made up is to keep adding further entries, whilst not adding any risk to the account.

I only place them when the Conqueror stop comes past the entry (which normally then leaves you with 0, or negative risk) and by taking a 1% risk trade with them Iā€™m reintroducing risk, but not adding to it.

What the multiple entries do add, though, is a much greater volatility to the floating profit and account balance.

Can you explain the atr technique please? Is it used only when the stop for conqueror is locking profit or it could be used with channel when it is locking profit?

Thinking about this maybe if i add a new entry on channel when previous trade is locking profit, placing that new tradeā€™s stop at the same place that the old stop and limiting the size of the new trade to have zero risk added could be good.

medisoft; In the post of mine you have quoted there is all the details I use for the re-entries.

Iā€™m sure you could work out a way to use them on a Channel system, but as I almost always have both a Channel and a Conqueror as soon as they are both available I havnā€™t felt the need to adapt it to be anything other than a supplement to Conqueror.

Sure! I re-read and found the answer :slight_smile:

Another question: are you using the smallest stop of all methods when using channel and conqueror?

I mean, if the stop for conqueror is 300 pips and the stop for channel is 250 pips, you use the 250 for both entries or the 300 for conqueror and 250 for channel?

Also, if on channel you are getting rejection rule or last bar rule, do you close also conqueror trades?

I know that Smith says that bishop closes all the trades, so Iā€™m not asking about that hehehe.

Thanks!

I also think that a way to add more potential profit without adding risk of loss is instead of adding a trade that uses all the 1 % risk, better add a trade that uses 1/2 of the locked profit for that pair as a max loss. In the case of that new trade failure, the net result will be only 1/2 of the locked profit prior to adding that new trade, and thus a profitable trade.

What do you think?

Always use the closest stop, and as the last bar is a stop, if it comes up Iā€™ll be using that.

If I already have a trade (Conq, Trend An, etc) and I get a Channel entry and a rejection rule Iā€™ll normally just ignore it.

If the other trades are still saying ā€˜trend onā€™ then either the Channel trade is likely to survive, or another exit will present itself.

It is amazing! Iā€™m using both methods in same account and for the moment, conqueror is giving amazing results. I have a very small real account (started with 50 usd) and it is now 120 usd. Started on March 11, 2013.

I think this month could be a very good one for the conqueror, as almost all the entries are in big profits and just started to trading it.

Are you having good results on this month with conqueror too?

conqueror and swissoptionstrading are the two best trading platforms of the month also for me.

Cool :slight_smile:

I have some stats for you! They are very simple, and still incomplete!

The stats are based on MAE/MFE of the 28 pairs (majors and crosses). I have 121 samples (trades), 42 % are winners, 58% are losers.

Iā€™m using Channel Breakout (with all the rules described in the Smithā€™s book) and Conqueror (also, same rules). Only difference is that Iā€™m ignoring rejection rule when I have more than 1 trade open (I mean, if I have 1 trade from channel breakout and 1 trade from conqueror, then I do not use the rejection rule).

From MAE, 95 % of winners never have more than 181 pips in floating loss, so one can expect that when a pair floating loss is greater than 181 pips it has a high probability to end as a loser. My average win is 202.82 pips, while the average loss is 104.7 pips, that is roughly 2:1 rvr, that is great. My average trade length is 10 days and the oldest trade is 70 days.

It is known for me that I need at least 300 samples to have statistically valid results, so this information with only 121 samples is still well below the required data. Nevertheless it is encouraging to see that this system is working.

Cyco from your comment on 8th June #384 - you mentioned your account growing by 41% in 1 week. That is monumental! Which leads me to think that if you experienced such a huge upside on your account in 1 week, surely you could experience a similar downside in the same week and that you were potentially over-leveraged or taking some big risks. How many trades did you have on and what was your risk profile looking like?

Loving this thread, but having read the book, backtested the heck out of the 55/20 and also seeing some of the results others have been posting, it makes me conclude that this is not a good strategy. Iā€™ve ended up with a negative after a backtest on 5 major FX pairs over 5 years. Woeful really.
I am working through enhancements to 55/20 and slowly backtesting 20/10, 30/10 and 40/10 to see if there is a difference.
After reading the Michael Covel Book Trend Following, there is a great example Channel System in the Appendix where some guys just purely tested a 88/13 (Cant remember off the top of my head if this is the correct figure) breakout method on a portfolio of 15 FX/Comms/Equities which backtested over 20 years showed an annual return of around 23%. Not bad at all. Compound that on a starting account of Ā£10,000 or Ā£100,000 and after 20 years you would be pretty wealthy!

Iā€™m pointing in the right direction and that is a start, am sure this method is a good one, but just not sure that 55/20 is gonna make us rich in the long runā€¦

Iā€™m forward testing with 55/20 + conqueror on 28 FX pairs. So far it is working good.

I think that the 43 % cyco said is because he closed some winning trades on that week. I got +190 % in one week when the system closed winners that had more than 2 months running.

Cyco and more recently medisoft, thanks for keeping this thread going.

As I know medisoft has also recently been discovering on this and another thread, there is some magic to diversifying with proper risk control over multiple FX pairs. Evey day I look at the Conqueror signals and so wish I was trading it! :slight_smile:

At the moment I am however having massive success with another swing trading system so I have to stick it outā€¦ but I might as well open a demo account and get this ball rollinā€™!

Keep it up guys,
A

Hi cyanidez
can you tell the name or the strategy of the system that bring you a massive success?

thx

Hi andream,

Well it has no name really, itā€™s my own system created over 3 years of experience :slight_smile:

If I ever get the conviction to share it, I will probably go the route of so many other guys on here that shared their system, but it seems like a LOT of effort so I honestly donā€™t see that happening anytime soon. Still if I do, Iā€™ll let you know.

Take care.

Medisoft,

I am curious how the Conqueror is treating you with the diversified portfolio? Looking forward to some updates :slight_smile:

Thanks for the effort.