So EurUSD sits 1.1800 and I have an upbet at 1.1725 which is 75 pips up so say £750. Ihave moved the stoploss to 1.1725 - so Nil risk on that single trade except I am already £750 up so that profit is at risk. I have doubled the bet at 1.1814 and the stoploss there sits at 1.1725. If the trade gets stopped out I lose £1500 - or since I have not cashed that profit, I only lose £750 of the account. The target is 1.1930. so 130 pips away upside - so say £1300x2 or £2600 !
The nett effect on the account then would be -£750 or +£3350.
The trade is based on a 38.1 Fib retracement and is holding(ish) but does have serious uncertainty. If the move retraces 50% or61.8% and reverses I am still going to make the profit, but I may have to lower the upside some. If it goes all the wat to retrace the up move and I get stopped out I lose the £750(real) or £1500 (from the small profit I now have.
Trouble is I can cash NOW for a small profit (£610 ish) or I can let it run for a £750 loss (in the account) or £3350 gain - Now thais is a REAL predicament I have but it is paper trade not cash money.
WHat to do ?
Opinions please, with reasons if you can think of one !
Of course @_bob This is just an interesting dilemma which typifies the psychology of our gambling. I’m really interested to see what the answers are - in honesty I’d have thought someone of your experience would have had an opinion
Well I did say it was a 38.1-or2- % retracement of the previous move, which I have already published on here as my trade on a double bottom.
I’m going no further at this point, as I feel I would like some others to join in and “get a feel” of this type of dilemma, which I’m sure we have all felt numerous times.
I understand the technical description you gave for selecting your entry. But that’s only one part of why you took the trade. If you still think your signal and reasons are valid then have faith in your analysis. If the trade fails learn from it. If it succeeds learn from it.
I would like some others to join in and benefit or not from this impasse - you and I are both old dogs with some experience - but this is one of the real dilemmas, which our newbie friends could consider now - They will certainly have to later
I think this would end up confusing newbies more than helping them. You give us partial information needed to make a decision and then ask us to make a decision. To really decide the right response, we need to know what your trading plan is. If it were my account, I would have this answered before I even took the trade.
There should never be a dilemma like this because each trader should have their entries and exits planned out before putting on the position. The plan should detail the entry technique, the exit conditions, stops and profit targets. If neither a stop, target, or exit condition has been reached, then leave the trade open. If one of those has been reached, then close the position.
There is no question other than this: what does your trading plan say to do?
@tommor The required upside is 130 points from the swing low, to match the first up-leg, so whilst the low is now 17553, the upside would now be 18853.
Yes it’s still valid.
Loss of profit is not the same thing as loss of capital. This is the tail and you’re letting it wag the dog. Cancel the TP, double again when trade 2 profits equal its initial risk and re-set your SL’s. Etc. etc.
@Falstaff your dilemma highlights why it’s important to plan for all eventualities before entering a position, because once the trade is open then emotions (greed and fear) can cloud your judgement. It’s good this is a demo trade.
Dilemma is the main reason of lack of confidence. Which can be solve by more and more trading. You can’t get the best decision from anyone unless you don’t take the right one for your job. Experience, knowledge and expertise can get rid from dilemma. You can also try some demo platform for seeing the upcoming result. It will help you to take right decision. Most of the 80% result close to demo trading result.
Why’s that good ? It’s 100,000 Account and the loss will represent - 0.75% - The win will represent +3.3 % of the total account and the entries and targets were logical to my mind.
Why did I choose a large size account ? - so the absolute numbers would be big enough to provoke those emotions.
If we try to pretend that Real trading is emotionless, then we are deluding ourselves.
We are not pretending that real trading is emotionless. We rather seek to minimize the impact of emotions by doing all the thinking before putting the trade on. That’s why we develop a plan and follow it. In my opinion, the less decisions to be made once the trade is open the better the plan is.
This is because the more times you make decisions, the less likely you are to make that decision the same way each time. This destroys your consistency, and consistency is what allows the law of averages to work in your favor. The only difference between gambling and trading is that trading has a positive expectancy. Without a plan and consistent execution, there is no way to have a positive expectancy.
