Removed my TP instruction at 1869 - I don’t think the 1880 will hold it down.
+1 contract at 1817 - I woke up and it was down there - just fired at a plunge before I realised when I woke up properly, it is on the way to retest 1800 - ok I’m comfortable with that.
Well how cynical was that ? 17610 then they let go and stopped pushing I’m thinking - the bottom of that plunge prior was 17670 - 6 pips higher, so where were all the stops located ?
At least that’s how it seems to me.
I might be wrong of course we’ll see if it goes back up now and lets my trades get back into profit.
Well you rarely see such a perfect head and shoulders and IG Have open Interest at 62% short, So it absolutely does have to fall off a cliff doesn’t it ?
I’m tempted to close my biggest loser and biggest winner together for a small profit and leave the other loser to run, but as everyone correctly said at the beginning does it still sit within your plan ? well yes it does and if I had left the single bet at 1725 running I would be £500 up with no risk to a £2500 profit.
As it is trying to scale up the bets when they were trending is costing a lot. the scenario is now 3000 loss or 6000 gain.
I’ve never ever seen a situation where the signs were so obviously in one direction or the other succeed,
I think they may drive it down to take out the stops below the double bottom, but the upbet remains for me - I do not try to encourage others to follow me.
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You need to have your strategy in hand before going into the trade. You are kind of stuck between Warren Buffitt (don’t loose any money) and Willy Sutton (go where the money is), a kind of universal dilemma for traders. I would always take the money and run
Yes I’m a bit rusty ! got stopped out about 6 hours ago with the drop to 1724 - caught me by 1 pip ! (- £2960 including the £270, but I picked up £ 1100 in side - bets along the way too. )
I’m pretty sure the move will continue now to 1880 probably 1.2000 and eventually probably around 1.2500, without ever giving me an opportunity to get back in.
But it may well take out the “Double bottom stops” first, so I have a buy order at 1.1701.5 with a stop at 1.1614. Trouble with that is it’s close to the round number, but it’s enough points to risk at this stage.
Well the buy order and stop are removed and at last look we were up to 1.1806 - so that single pip stopout which lost £2960, would now be £1040 in profit.
There’s a lot of learning for me to re-read in this thread - Good trades screwed up ! Profits left to turn to losses, short trades left to become “investments” - but poor entries and stop loss placement are the most important I think.
On the up-side though, my betting principles seem to work on forex as well, but I do need to study the manipulation aspects more too ! I thought the size made it immune - now I have my doubts !
Thanks to anyone who is still following this little adventure.
Well apparently Draghi went down well in the stock market, but not in the Euro / Dollar !
[Edit 200] pips is quite a big move whilst I was out and shows the importance of a stop-loss in this environment.
However, the AUgust lows were 1.1624 and I have taken a paper bet at 1.16662 that they hold Stop loss {Edit 1.1569}. The extra points are because it is close to 1.1600 and could dive down to test that before turning if “They” decide to “Run the stops”
If we looka at this as more than just a response to a speech, “they” have now taken out all the “Sell stops” in the whole market and parked it conspicuously through the “Double bottom” of last time. “They” did not let it get high enough for serious “profit taking” on the up-move, so just about every “Up bet” is wiped out for a loss. My reading is that there will be many many " down bets" coming in now.
What would cause most pain now ? Take it down to test the August double bottom, possiblt to break 1.1600 to get as many "short " as possible, Then Hammer it back up to take out all the shorts - That’s what I would do if I were “in charge” of the pain machine.
We shall soon learn I guess whether that is a real head and shoulders or just the start of “Range trading” .
Here’s the 15 minute of the action today - see the action on the speech “down- bottom - up” Then the volume spike. In fact it tried to come back several times, each time to be met with a big v olume spike as the shorts piled in ! - Lot of short interest out there methinks.
Dilemma is a common matter among the forex trader. Every trader should keep in mind that we can not become rich overnight with forex trading. Forex is a business rather than an opportunity. Before entering into a trader, a trader should calculate how much risk, he can take. Setting up a trade, he may forget trading and can do other jobs. Coz our psychology and logic may change if we look for a long time in mt4 platform. In forex opportunity goes, better opportunity comes. I may suggest you to stick to your strategy.
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Interestng - my stop held so far by 3 pips ! Better placement this time.
"They keep lunging it down to 1.1602 ish before letting it to rise again as though it was real. Trying to get the “bets in!” with stops just below 1600 methinks. It may also accumulate buy orders in the 1603-1605 range perhaps ? I suspect they’ll plunge it down again, during the US Session - whether it will go far enough too take out my stop or not I don’t know. It was a poor entry.
Lets see whom Trump puts in the Fed - Strong dollar policy at the moment with weak Euro policy from Germany.
[Edit - weak dollar advocate may really stir things up ! ]
That (Paper) long of mine is still intact despite the poor entry - Well it was just above 1660, so maybe just unfortunate that support didn’t hold - now at breakeven, with resistance overcome for the time being at 1660.
I’m still hopeful for the 1.2000, but there’s a long way to go to there yet.
My problem has been for many years “In too soon, out too soon”, so let’s see how the “Bottle” holds on this one !
Well I thought the “Dirty 30” was manipulated !
It seems the poor old retail punter gets just as badly treated here !
Lovely jubbly shillings for a Friday morning’s work 
“…If we looka at this as **more than just a response to a NFP report, “they” have now taken out a lot of the the “Sell stops” in the market and left it parked just above the major psychological level of the last few times “They” did not let it get high enough for serious “profit taking” on the up-move, so just about every “Up bet” is wiped out for a loss. My reading is that there will be many many " down bets” coming in now.
What would cause most pain now ? Take it down to test the August double bottom, possibly to break even the 1574, to get as many "short " as possible, Then Hammer it back up to take out all the shorts -
However Fridays action show there are no residual orders left at the 1660+ level, going smoothly through in both directions, so maybe the upside is now very vulnerable ! 
That’s what I would do if I were “in charge” of the pain machine.
We shall soon learn I guess whether that is a real head and shoulders or just the start of “Range trading” .
In the words of Burt Reynolds (The longest Yard ) "it worked once - Let’s try it again ! " 
Ok - I just got stopped out of that long (Paper) trade for a loss, But since the price is not up much, I’m back in again, Long again at 15757 with a SL 15430 on EURUSD.
I don’t have huge confidence, But the stop is close at 30 pips and the possible upside could be quite a lot, so Here we go again.
I’ll quantify the loss late in an Edit, But at least this time I’m on the bottom of the range.
I’m tempted to say if I get stopped again, I’ll go “Stop and reverse”, but then WHere would I put the stop ?
This is where having a trading plan is crucial. And as part of the trading plan you must include your trading edge. Your trading edge is specific conditions you expect to find when you trade. Now if those conditions exist, you dont need to overthink your dilemma. You just have to believe in your trading plan.
{Edit - 97 pips lost on the long trade. Plus whatever the Interest Rates are on the EURUSD }
Stop and reverse at 15986 SL above recent high - SL = 16126. The monthly and weekly are showing “UP” but daily is showing down since Sept 20. 16000ish has been support, and is showing signs on the short time-frames that that area is a place the Bears want to hold.
{edit 3 - It’s been up to 16110 in the last 30 minute bar, so “In too soon” again here - even if the bet turns out right, I’ve left a lot of pips on the table, or a better entry would havee mdeant I could have has a much larger size ! ]
so + 22 pips on that one yesterday.
[Edit 2 - Volaitility is rubbish these last few days - VIX is below 10 a lot recently. DJIA looks overbought massively on any scale having risen 6400 pips in a year for a 33% + increase into completely new territory. PE Ratios are rubbish. In the UK House prices are through the roof.
With banks effectively paying zero interest on any deposits (although they still charge us 20% ish !) , money is going whereverit thinks there might be a profit - whether it is house prices, stock markets or bitcoins ! Consequently, wherever you look there are bubbles.
With a VIX below or around 10 - that is supreme confidence (Complacency).
Something has to change. I can’t see any more upside in anything which will rock that cmplacency, so I think we must expect a decent downside in most of the things I have mentioned. But if so Where would the money go ?
The US, The UK and most of Europe is in such massive debt, that for Govts to allow interest rates to rise to more normal amounts, would mean massive, probably unsustainable tax rises to pay the interest on the Bonds they would need to print. Without being able to earn interest, “Money” has little choice but to keep fuelling these bubbles, until some say “Enough i enough” and start taking real profits to hold in cash - enough to cause the markets to move. Then perhaps even the PPT will be unable to hold back the torrent !
However what effect that will have on forex I have no inkling except that Germany is one of the few countries without really high debt levels, and perhaps in reality Germany IS the Euro so EURUSD should hold up well - except for the well known German desire for a weak Euro ! - Hmmmm ! ]
[Edit 4 ? Out 15914 - say 7 pips. Just watching now.]
Well so much for the “Head and Shoulders” which was so obvious on EURUSD.
THe double top is at 1.2092.
I just came out of a long (Still paper) at 1.1921 but only 25 pips taken. Tempted to short it now for the retest of the 1800 level, but it’s lateish Friday over here, so we’ll see where they park it for the weekend.