I kept that as a short term trade, because it had noo stop loss and I didn’t have an appetite to set one below the double bottom, with only 70 pips upside.
All in all the big trade is £800 in profit now and in case I’m not about when it happens, I will enter a take profit at 1869 for the retracement trade. The original bet will be left to run so I can “See how it looks” at that point.
Without tat stupid stop loss placement on the best trade of all, the profit would have been £1690 at this moment. ( I am learning a lot from this trade. )
@tommor We are approaching that level as I type - but I’m not a trend follower, because whenever I try I get stopped out - I am basically a contrarian. That retracement trade was “A” Level as far as I’m concerned and adding another at - 0.618 was a great move, with a crap stop loss placement.
{Edit Seein as this is a paper trade, I may adjust my spreadsheet to show what the results of that would be. The probem to me is Assuming that is successful - where do we take profits ? }
I shall rember your advice here and may try it another time. but for now my strategy will be to lift the remaining retracement trade at TP 1869 and let the original bet stay on for a while.
Thanks a lot for your thoughts, but I have already tried soome new stuff on this one and don’t want to put more complications in.
@tommor - I have entered your suggestion on a separate spreadsheet at 1832. The stop is placed at 1783 which is a 50% retracement from the current high, which gives a zero risk, but no profit situation if I am wrong and the Law of Alternation fails to operate on this occasion.
[[Edit my spreadsheet is showing +£200 at 1837 and I have terminated the bet. Although I have 2 positions on the bet, they are at very different levels and I,m only £1060 up. A 20 pip stoploss here is just asking to lose ! - atb and thanks for the £200 ! ]
Exits are the toughest decision in trading and there can’t really be a single right way but I can tell you my way. I never set a TP and never close a trade, they only close when a SL is hit (unless I need to close an oldest trade to release capital for a new one). When I have multiple trades on the same chart in parallel, all the trades close at the same time. Obviously, the worst result is for the most recent trade, which is a total loss, but the others are less painful. The loss on the last trade is the same capital as the risk on the very first trade. The next to last suffers a break-even, the older trades all make a profit.
e.g. A nice day-dream is to one day have 10 parallel longs on the same pair or index. Let’s say Trade 1 had a TA-based SL 96 pips below entry, so my initial risk was 96. When Trade 1 gets to +96, I move its SL to its’ entry and open Trade 2, also with a 96 pip SL. And keep doing that forever. Every 96 pips up, open a new trade with a 96 pip SL and move all the other SL’s 96 pips higher. Maybe when to want to open Trade 11 you’re out of capital, so close Trade 1 to release it. Otherwise, keep letting all the trades run until there is a 96 pip price drop, in which case they all close at once.
Ah I misunderstood - you trade each position separately except for stop loss
Ok - well we’re closing in on all sorts of doulbe tops at the moment, If it punches through, my smallest position should be around right to follow that advice.
+1 contract at 1817 - I woke up and it was down there - just fired at a plunge before I realised when I woke up properly, it is on the way to retest 1800 - ok I’m comfortable with that.
Well how cynical was that ? 17610 then they let go and stopped pushing I’m thinking - the bottom of that plunge prior was 17670 - 6 pips higher, so where were all the stops located ?
At least that’s how it seems to me.
I might be wrong of course we’ll see if it goes back up now and lets my trades get back into profit.
Well you rarely see such a perfect head and shoulders and IG Have open Interest at 62% short, So it absolutely does have to fall off a cliff doesn’t it ?
I’m tempted to close my biggest loser and biggest winner together for a small profit and leave the other loser to run, but as everyone correctly said at the beginning does it still sit within your plan ? well yes it does and if I had left the single bet at 1725 running I would be £500 up with no risk to a £2500 profit.
As it is trying to scale up the bets when they were trending is costing a lot. the scenario is now 3000 loss or 6000 gain.
I’ve never ever seen a situation where the signs were so obviously in one direction or the other succeed,
I think they may drive it down to take out the stops below the double bottom, but the upbet remains for me - I do not try to encourage others to follow me.
You need to have your strategy in hand before going into the trade. You are kind of stuck between Warren Buffitt (don’t loose any money) and Willy Sutton (go where the money is), a kind of universal dilemma for traders. I would always take the money and run
Yes I’m a bit rusty ! got stopped out about 6 hours ago with the drop to 1724 - caught me by 1 pip ! (- £2960 including the £270, but I picked up £ 1100 in side - bets along the way too. )
I’m pretty sure the move will continue now to 1880 probably 1.2000 and eventually probably around 1.2500, without ever giving me an opportunity to get back in.
But it may well take out the “Double bottom stops” first, so I have a buy order at 1.1701.5 with a stop at 1.1614. Trouble with that is it’s close to the round number, but it’s enough points to risk at this stage.
Well the buy order and stop are removed and at last look we were up to 1.1806 - so that single pip stopout which lost £2960, would now be £1040 in profit.
There’s a lot of learning for me to re-read in this thread - Good trades screwed up ! Profits left to turn to losses, short trades left to become “investments” - but poor entries and stop loss placement are the most important I think.
On the up-side though, my betting principles seem to work on forex as well, but I do need to study the manipulation aspects more too ! I thought the size made it immune - now I have my doubts !
Thanks to anyone who is still following this little adventure.
Well apparently Draghi went down well in the stock market, but not in the Euro / Dollar !
[Edit 200] pips is quite a big move whilst I was out and shows the importance of a stop-loss in this environment.
However, the AUgust lows were 1.1624 and I have taken a paper bet at 1.16662 that they hold Stop loss {Edit 1.1569}. The extra points are because it is close to 1.1600 and could dive down to test that before turning if “They” decide to “Run the stops”
If we looka at this as more than just a response to a speech, “they” have now taken out all the “Sell stops” in the whole market and parked it conspicuously through the “Double bottom” of last time. “They” did not let it get high enough for serious “profit taking” on the up-move, so just about every “Up bet” is wiped out for a loss. My reading is that there will be many many " down bets" coming in now.
What would cause most pain now ? Take it down to test the August double bottom, possiblt to break 1.1600 to get as many "short " as possible, Then Hammer it back up to take out all the shorts - That’s what I would do if I were “in charge” of the pain machine.
We shall soon learn I guess whether that is a real head and shoulders or just the start of “Range trading” .
Here’s the 15 minute of the action today - see the action on the speech “down- bottom - up” Then the volume spike. In fact it tried to come back several times, each time to be met with a big v olume spike as the shorts piled in ! - Lot of short interest out there methinks.
Dilemma is a common matter among the forex trader. Every trader should keep in mind that we can not become rich overnight with forex trading. Forex is a business rather than an opportunity. Before entering into a trader, a trader should calculate how much risk, he can take. Setting up a trade, he may forget trading and can do other jobs. Coz our psychology and logic may change if we look for a long time in mt4 platform. In forex opportunity goes, better opportunity comes. I may suggest you to stick to your strategy.
Interestng - my stop held so far by 3 pips ! Better placement this time.
"They keep lunging it down to 1.1602 ish before letting it to rise again as though it was real. Trying to get the “bets in!” with stops just below 1600 methinks. It may also accumulate buy orders in the 1603-1605 range perhaps ? I suspect they’ll plunge it down again, during the US Session - whether it will go far enough too take out my stop or not I don’t know. It was a poor entry.
Lets see whom Trump puts in the Fed - Strong dollar policy at the moment with weak Euro policy from Germany.
[Edit - weak dollar advocate may really stir things up ! ]
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