Trade Summary
Had a wild week. Huge gains and losses. Account balance at $133.24. That’s basically +33.24% on initial amount and a +64.90% from the previous week. This alone would normally be phenomenal and a cause for celebration if it wasn’t for what I did on WED, THU & FRI.
By EOD MON I had ~$122 which was a spectacular gain in the two trading days after the previous losses. I then decided my current system in Notion was not going to be flexible enough for the wild swings that were on the horizon with the Central Bank announcements. There was going to be crazy action and I wasn’t going to let my not so effective and slow system to get in the way of making big bucks. Atleast that was the idea. I was confident in my current level of discipline (instilled with the continued use of my notion journal) & psychology. This was a midlife crisis. It was like cheating on a long suffering wife on a weekend with a hot trick in some exotic destination.
WED (15JUN) was ok because I only ignored my system much later in the day, where I am, when the FOMC announced the rate hikes. I knew, from the looking at M15-H4 charts, that the major currencies would go against the numbers/fundamentals. I knew what would happen. Wasn’t prepared for how it would turn out. That began a steady stream of massive losses the following day.
As if attempting to trade the news without following my system just for the FED rate hike wasn’t enough, I tried it again the following day (THU 16JUN) with both the SNB and BOE rate hikes. I’d traded the account balance away to ~$61 that day if I remember right. It was an amazing display of self destruction.
Abs DD rose to 56.65%. With the daily DD being reduced to 31.96%. Still a new ATH.
Made a quick recovery to the ~$88 with a string of good wins. There were some bad losses as well but the good, in this case outweighed the bad.
Remembered being very sarcastic with myself: “Wow, good job at making it just over break even after the 4 day grind!!!” This was because my account equity was at one point $162-165 even. To see the balance whittled down to $61 then back to $88 was a huge “Are you $hitting me?!” moment. I can’t remember feeling as relieved and disappointed at the same time in the recent past.
FRI (18JUN) started off with a bang. Kept some trades running while I slept. The BOJ announcemet helped hit the TP on all the trades I had running. All of them were JPY trades 
Account balance up to ~$154 but I traded it down to ~$124 and then back up to current level.
Key Takeaways:
I can attribute the massive gains to working intuitively. I didn’t even journal my trades (for the first time ever) during this stretch. Can argue that the big downswing are worth it because the end justified the means. But when I examine the #s I know that’s a false narrative.
Took 27 trades (can only afford to trade 0.01 lots atm) on the 13th (on the existing system) and notched a gain of $30.28 in profits.
The numbers with the system on the 14th were 24 trades for $25.75.
It’s significant when I compare it to the #s and figures against trading with “intuition”:
Basically if I can compare the similar profits for both TUE & FRI and notice immediately that I took 34 less trades. That’s massive. And that’s comparing the best case outcome of “intuition” vs the worse of the 2 examples for the system argument. Because 27 trades for ~$30 is just more efficient. Arguments that work against the numbers:
- Very limited sample size
- My numbers with the system were also inefficient when I implemented it at the start and I gradually got used to it.
- I’ve got a very good handle of trading with the news and without the system now. The numbers can only improve in more normal market conditions over time.
But these numbers put a nail in my coffin. Shows a serious gap in my psychology when I trade intuitively.
The MAE is the Maximum Adverse Excursion. The figure is explained by another user in the myfxbook forums here. Greens are wins (further away from 0 pips on the X-Axis the better) and Reds are loses (closer to 0 pips on the X-Axis the better).
Historically all of my losses have never exceeded the highlighted box. Those represent the mostly 15-pip SLs & the 1xATR (H1 TF) I implement on my trades. But the intuitive approach sees me widening the SLs on an alarming # of trades. The worst of which is the 81.7 pip loss that went against me. This should’ve been 15-25 pips max.
This is unacceptable. I’m not psychologically able to override my biases on a significant # of trades to take the L. I know I am tired of being stopped out with being forced to use a 15-pip SL but that has to be an accepted reality with having to work with small capital. I knew it going in and I need to be disciplined enough to accept this reality till I grow the account. There’s just no excuse. This has to stop.
Next week I’m back to the usual system, which I’m improving on gradually anyway. Despite the obvious fault with the biases I’m happy with my overall psychology. When the account balance was gradually diminishing and hit ~61 I was very clinical and just wrote it off simply. Just continued to find optimal setups, which I eventually did, and capitalized on it.
A few years back I’d have let it affect me emotionally. I’d have revenge traded in a fit of blinding rage and self destructed the rest of my capital. I know because it has happened to me a number of times when I started playing poker. I was still very scared my temper would get the better of me but it didn’t when it mattered the most. The work I put in to improve on my psychology as paid off in one way or another. So that’s a very positive takeaway. Something to pat myself on the back for 
Further reading:
Intend to over the weekend. This update is early. But nothing during the week because of how much time I spent trading. I honestly can’t wait to hit $220-240. These would enable 1xATR for most of the currencies. $300 would be the next milestone to consider changing the position size. That’s give me even greater flexibility and enable less micromanaging and, hopefully, more reading.
