I developed a strategy that has been working out for quite some time. But lately, the setups seem not to be coming as frequently and sometimes are false setups. Does this happen often in Forex? Or do I wait till the market stabilises and shows my setups clearly? Advise me please I’m new.
Yes, the markets do change. Be aware of if the market is trending or ranging. There has been a lot of ranging on the daily’s lately, so trend following strategies won’t work out as well.
Strategies only fail to work if they were only working due to good luck in the first place.
Its possible to spot a set-up that is working due to good luck all this week, all this month, even longer maybe. But eventually, statistical probability outweighs luck and it can therefore look like a good strategy failed. The suspicion is often heard that a good strategy was arbitraged out by becoming too well known and counter-played by the bigger players. This is BS. It was never a good strategy, only a lucky one.
Trend-following strategies work during trends. Range trading strategies work during ranges. In both cases they always have and they always will.
thats true y9ou make a good point, every good strategy wont work 100% of the time
As it was mentioned before, the markets could change, but other reasons are also possible. For example, your setup may work during elevated or low volatily, for instance.
Another point is that your strategy may require more details. This means that you may need to study your setup again and define its key points. This will help you to avoid false signals and find the criteria the setup should meet to work better. It could happen that you just missed one detail and now it is necessary to find it.
In addition to the solid advice here,I would look for historic periods the were similar ranging/trending, high/low volatility and run a few backtests to see when it responds best. Or pairs that have that behavior currently.
I was playing with applying the same strategy on pairs with more/less volatility and eve with the basics the results are vastly different. Nice reminder to keep refreshing.
