Today usd was the king due to risk aversion sentiment as “claimed”, but i cant really get it . u.s data today wasn’t really bad . CPE was as expected and consumer spending was less then previous number but also as expected . other than that Chicago Purchasing Managers was way above expectation and Consumer Sentiment was positive too .
So why its risk aversion suddenly ? usd is trending down since April and from that time till now the world is still in crises .
As time passes i get stronger feeling that there are big players (whoever they are) controlling market directions, playing a game that they are the only ones who know its rules, and using the media for this purpose .
Keep in mind the Forex market is a zero sum game. There are winners and losers whether you are an institutional trader or a micro account retail trader. The trick is gaining the slim advantage - that is all you need to be highly profitable (assuming you have money management skills…).
Thursday US CPI number was/is a joke. Cash for clunkers, home buyer credit, etc gave it a big boost. 4Q CPI will be 0% or negative. The market figured it out today. The “global” recovery is tenuous at best. All this leads to at least near term USD strength.
Interesting situation at 11: 45 am (est) this morning. London traders were headed home and apparantly they were all short EURUSD. To close their positions there was a 50 pip spike up that retraced within 30 minutes. Very scary trading. I guess the lesson is to always think of the other side of the trade.
The market is not out to get you. Trust your view. When you go short, by definition, there is someone equally convinced to go long. Again, trust your view. Stick with it, take your profits and do not think about how much more you “could have made”. Pigs get slaughtered.
Be stingy when you are on the wrong side. Know at what price point you were wrong. Get out. Its OK. It was still a good trade because it was “cheap learning”.
Ride the fun wave when you are right. You do not even have to be right 50%of the time to make money. Forget about winning percentage. All that matters is that you take money out of the market.
You’re acting as if data on a given day is the only thing that impacts a market’s direction.
As time passes i get stronger feeling that there are big players (whoever they are) controlling market directions, playing a game that they are the only ones that know its rules, and using the media for this purpose .
Given that larger positions and transaction flows have a bigger influence on prices than small ones, it’s basically a truism that bigger players are driving the market direction. Doesn’t make it a conspiracy, though, if that’s what you’re driving at.
Thank you for your replies
I feel like am under attack.
I respect all of your opinions but i have to say :
First of all i am not discussing how i can protect my self using stop losses and money management right here . Risk and Money management is important for any successful trader , even gamblers use MM, but its not the fundamental thing .
I would love that who is mentioning that its an illusion with confidence at least to support his opinion with something .
[B]Cas [/B]would i consider this an agreement ?
[B]rhodytrader[/B] There is always an explanation for any move in the forex market even if its appear irrational for some people and you can never know what the truth is because its subject to nothing physical or real .
I am talking here about the fundamentals of forex market behavior . I believe that forex is driven by economic fundamentals in the longer term but its not in the near term .
Who the hell makes sentiment ? change sentiment ? having the enough power and capable of moving the market in a certain direction for short period of time i can change sentiment . using media to spread this sentiment , and then market will drive its self.
The structure of forex market as its an over the counter, non-regulated help make this possible, and makes it impossible for anyone to judge for sure that its driven purely with out manipulation .
Everywhere there are drivers, leaders and followers .
On your feelings of fear that you have to admit to yourself that you are powerless in your efforts to contol the markets and at the same time find a rationalisation for it and hoping to get it confirmed by asking for opinions.
Yes, I am.
But you didn’t get to hear what you had hoped for in the first place.
You got opinions and point of views you didn’t want to hear as you asked for opinions. And now you are feeling under attack.
In the final analysis there is only one reason markets move - because those determining the dealing prices (market makers) see the need to move them to find a new level where transaction flow will be maximized. That, of course, will be motivated by the existence of large volume buy/sell interest (or the expectation of it my the MMs, anyway) in certain areas. Why that buy/sell interest is there comes from a multitude of reasons, and what has been released for news or data on a given day is only one of the deciding elements, and often not the most important one.
What role are global Central Banks playing in that final analysis of yours and where they would fit in…meaning are they large volume buy/sell interest or market makers…?
Traders come in many different sizes. That would be a fact. The question you pose is about control. How could one control the market? If you control the supply you can control the market price. If you have enough money you can control the price from dropping below a certain point. Your goal as a trader is to make money. So long are you are not prevented from buying and selling, you are not being controlled. If price is moving up and down then there is an opportunity for a trader, no matter what size, to make money. Forget about the “conspiracy”.
CBs are never market makers, only market influencers. Right now about the only CB even doing that directly is the Swiss with their occasional intervention to keep the CHF from getting too strong (mainly against the EUR). The Fed, BoE, etc. aren’t involved the currency market directly, but indirectly through their influencing of money supply via QE, etc.
Of course. I’ll include gov’t finance ministries and treasuries in with central banks to call them all sovereign interests. There are also speculative interests in the form of players like hedge funds. Multinational corporations and all those involved in cross-border trade are massively important as they are the main reason why the forex market exists. And of course you’ve got the money center banks sitting in the middle of it all.
Aren’t sovereign interests…as you called them…playing multiple roles on the FOREX markets…?
Aren’t sovereign interests who have …through money supply/reduction/monetary policy/interst rates and so on…the last word on fx volume/liquidity/price levels…whether directly or indirectly…?
What comes to my mind is the reduction of FX volume shortly after Lehman collapsed through the reduction of Yen carry trades by about a third if I remember right.
The sovereigns work at the macro level. As such they do not generally (aside from relative infrequent specific intervention) act directly in the forex market. That means they cannot be the “last word” because the wide market of market participants will still, in the end, decide where to trade, how much to trade, etc.
I have come to the conclusion that I might have [U]overestimated[/U] [I]the sovereigns[/I] in regards to their ability to influence market participants behaviour for any length of time.
