when price stops at certain level smart money start to look where average traders will go
maybe that is the moment to quickly enter with a big investment following the normal logic then quickly get out before the time when smart money start putting its own logic into work?
i will watch it
smart money need somebody to buy stuff from
they can fool that somebody into selling
and
smart money need somebody to sell stuff to
they can fool that somebody into buying
I’m confident that none of the big banks trading in the forex market has traders who are much much smarter than all the other big banks. So all the banks have smart traders and big money which means its all smart money.
The dumb money belongs to the private retail traders and this is so small in comparison to the big banks that it just isn’t worth the risk for the big players to move exchange rates to try to take it.
However, smart private retail traders can to an extent be smarter than their dumb fellows by watching what the big banks do and doing the same, and watching what the majority of private retail traders do and not doing the same. Whether the dramatic rise in AUD/CAD is a one day spike or not, none of this happening because of or in order to take advantage of private retail traders.
I stick by it, we’re not the targets - the risks have been too great for several years - as per the article you linked to.
Meantime, we may well get rolled on by the big beasts fighting each other but that’s mostly down to poor trading by private retail traders. Its hard to picture a private retail trader who’s so good at trading he would have been a roaring success story if only his market had not been manipulated.
I think one of the key things to remember is how orders in the market move the price. Other members more technically savvy than myself can chime in.
I believe understanding why price moves, based on orders in the market, is critical to answering your question.
The following article may bring some clarification and help complete the picture. It is definitely worth reading and it’s much more concise than I could be.
Perhaps it’s similar to riding an elevator except you can’t push the buttons for the floor you want. The smart money elevator operator controls the buttons and where it’s going and you are along for the ride.
For me, this is a good visual, thought exercise in terms of entries/exits and guestimating if odds nudging in my favor.