Dollar Gains...Correctively

• Euro Takes a Breather
• Japanese Yen Triangle
• British Pound Reversing?
• Swiss Franc Slips
• Canadian Dollar Tight Range
• Australian Dollar Probing .8000
• New Zealand Dollar Takes Out .7000

EURUSD – “With 5 waves up from 1.3193, a correction lower is the most likely scenario with support at the 4th wave low at 1.3280. This level is reinforced by the 38.2% of 1.3193-1.3343 at 1.3286.” The decline from 1.3343 is a clear 3 wave correction, which keeps us looking higher. Former resistance at 1.3254 should be solid support. 1.3370 is in play on a rally through 1.3343

USDJPY – We continue to favor the triangle scenario. The rally that began at 115.76 is likely the C wave of the triangle that could challenge 118.28 (116.24 + (117.80 – 115.76)). As long as the current rally ends before 118.51, the triangle structure is intact. After the C wave rally ends before 118.51, we are looking for a decline to triangle support in a D wave to around 116.50.

GBPUSD – The Cable rally has held at the confluence of the 20 day SMA / 61.8% of 1.9675-1.9184 at 1.9485. As long as the pair remains below 1.9507, the reversal scenario that we proposed Friday remains favored. Coming under 1.9384 would increase confidence in the bearish outlook.

USDCHF – The USDCHF has rallied off of the lower Bollinger band (daily) to former support (now resistance) from the 3/14 low at 1.2104. The rally from 1.2030 has taken on an impulsive nature and a setback would potentially be a 4th wave correction. A break above the short term trendline shown below opens up the door to the 3/15 high at 1.2217. Price above 1.2187 warrants a short term bullish bias.

USDCAD – We are suspending the longer term bearish outlook due to the impulsive rally off of 1.1679. We wrote yesterday that “the fact that this decline has yet to accelerate lower and the bullish divergence with RSI on the hourly are both causes for concern and a bounce to 1.1739 or higher is suggested near term by the 5 waves down from 1.1820.” A small 5 wave rally from 1.1679 to 1.1765 is evident with the chop lower undoubtedly corrective. Price is now likely to exceed 1.1879 is a 3rd wave and target the 1.2000 figure (61.8% of 1.2734-1.0927 at 1.2041) in coming weeks. Then, we will look for the BIG turn lower. Remaining above 1.1679 keeps the outlook intact.

AUDUSD – The AUD/USD has tested the 1/3 high at .7982. Ultimately, the AUDUSD may be in the verge of breaking above long term resistance at .8003. Near term, the rally from .7798 is in 5 waves and 240 minute RSI is overbought and exhibits bearish divergence. A corrective setback may be in order before a serious challenge of .8003 occurs. The uptrend remains healthy as long as the 3/13 high at .7887 remains intact.

NZDUSD – Kiwi’s rally has not been as impressive as the Aussie but the pair has broken above the .7000 figure. A measured objective lies at .7104, which is where the rally from .6832 would equal the .6720-.6991 rally. This is also just below the 2/26 high at .7126. The bullish outlook remains intact as long as .6943 remains solid (as support).