Dollar Likely Pushes to New High in Near Term

• Euro Breaking Down
• Japanese Yen Declines off of Highs
• British Pound In Small Degree 5th Wave
• Swiss Franc Little Changed
• Canadian Dollar Finds Bids
• Australian Dollar Breaks Below .7800
• New Zealand Dollar Rally Is Corrective

EURUSD – Ultimately, we look for the decline that began at 1.3262 to test at least 1.2757. This is where the decline from 1.3262 would equal the 1.3370-1.2865 decline. The major long term supporting trendline intersects with the 1.2700 figure at the end of March. Near term, a small degree 5th wave should unfold from close to current levels and take price under 1.3072. The 161.8% extension of 1.3262-1.3142 / 1.3215 at 1.3022 is our short term measured objective. 1.3142 needs to hold as resistance in order to keep the most bearish structure intact.

USDJPY – The USDJPY is nearing important resistance from the 2/27 low at 117.49. The pair should turn down before or at this level. Resistance at 117.49 is reinforced by the 61.8% of 118.88-115.15 at 117.44. A small degree 5th wave should come under 115.15, possibly testing the 12/5/2006 low at 114.42. A larger upward correction likely follows after a new low is made below 115.15.

GBPUSD – Cable also appears ready to turn lower in a 5th wave that will come under 1.9183. Resistance is strong at the current juncture from previous congestion. A break below 1.9183 targets potential trendline support drawn off of the June 2006 and October 2006 lows near 1.9080. The 200 day SMA reinforces support at 1.9040. The immediate bearish outlook is best served with 1.9326 resistance remaining intact. A larger correction (upward) should follow once the 5th wave low is established below 1.9183 (again…focus on 1.9040/80).

USDCHF – Little is changed regarding the USDCHF. We still favor the bottoming scenario with risk at yesterday’s low of 1.2109. The next move of consequence should be in a wave C rally (inverse of EURUSD) to above 1.2575. A push through Friday’s high at 1.2264 bolsters the bullish scenario. Daily CCI has increased from below -100, which signals a reversal (higher).

USDCAD – The long term bearish bias remains intact. The decline off of the top of the 2 year channel combined with the outside monthly reversal favor the downside. Ultimately the decline from 1.1879 should come under 1.0927 to complete a 5th wave. The rally from 1.1564 has retraced 78.6% of the 1.1879-1.1564 decline in a 2nd wave. The next few weeks should see price come under 1.1564 and possibly even 1.1250-1.1326 – which marks the 138.2% to 161.8% extensions of 1.1879-1.1564 / 1.1761. 1.1880 is critical resistance. A push above, while not expected, targets the 1.2000 figure

AUDUSD – The AUDUSD is rolling over from its wave 4 correction ahead of the 38.2% of .7895-.7679 at .7761. Price should come under .7680 in a 5th wave. A break below .7680 targets the 61.8% of .7413-.7982 at .7631. The 200 day SMA at .7654 warrants watching as well. This morning’s high at .7759 is initial resistance but a push through there gives scope to the 61.8% of .7895-.7679 at .7813.

NZDUSD – Kiwi is in the same position as the AUDUSD. That is, the rally from .6720 is a 4th wave correction that should give way to one more low to below .6720. The 38.2% of .5927-.7128 at .6670 is potential support on a break below .6720. The confluence of the 50% of .7035-.6720 / former congestion at .6877 is resistance. As is the theme here this morning, one more low in a small degree 5th wave likely gives way to a larger upward correction.