As we have focused on for weeks, the EURUSD has finally broken through to new highs in what will prove to be a terminal thrust from a triangle. Although a correction could reach 1.4980, a higher EURUSD (a weaker dollar) is expected across the board in the week(s) that follows.
The Top Ideas report released at the beginning of every week includes TREND analysis and SENTIMENT analysis as well as Daily charts. The STRATEGY table is updated everyday as risk and target levels change.
The rally to 1.5089 this morning is probably the end of wave iii of 3 within the 5 wave rally from 1.4438. Objectives are at 161.8% extension; which sit at 1.5129 and 1.5176. Near term support is at 1.4981To summarize, there is still plenty of upside potential.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: EXIT
We have been off on the USDJPY lately as we have been trying to buy against various swing lows only to be stopped out, time and time again. The entire rally from 104.97 to 108.59 could have completed a larger correction but we have subjectively favored a larger rally because of various sentiment measures. A large complex correction may be unfolding with the drop from 108.59 as wave X in a W-X-Y. If this is the case, then price should put in a bottom soon and begin a rally that reaches roughly 110.
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
Similar to the EURUSD, the rally to 1.9970 may have completed wave iii of larger C (within the A-B-C from 1.9337). Support may be strong at 1.9825. If this level gives way, then look for support at 1.9750 (61.8% of 1.9615-1.9970). Like the EURUSD, there is additional upside potential.
STRATEGY: EXIT
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
We were wrong to get bullish the USDCHF. The pair has plummeted and is now below 1.07. Near term resistance is at 1.0763 and the next level of potential support is the psychological 1.05 figure.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.0728, target TBD (above 1.1103)
We wrote yesterday that “the minimum expectation is below .9755 and objectives are at .9691 and .9378.” A corrective advance could reach Fibonacci resistance in the .9845-.9898 zone but lower prices lie ahead. Risk can be moved to .9984.
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .9984, target below .9755
We were never given the chance to get long the AUDUSD, as the pair simply ran away. As such, the rally from .9111 is either an extended 5th wave or part of an extended 3rd wave. Either way, a great opportunity is nearing. We will be looking for signs of a significant reversal in the coming weeks. Still, bullish objectives are upwards of 1.00.
[B]Without even paying attention to wave structure, the NZDUSD still appears to have additional upside potential. The rally from .7781 would not even equal the .7383-.7966 rally until .8364. Look for any decline to form correctively. Support begins at .8125 and price should remain above .8065 [/B]
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Tell us what you think about this report: contact the strategist about the article at <[email protected]>[/B]
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[1] STRATEGY is a quick summary of our best technical ideas. The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more. Ideas are also included for crosses throughtout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
[2] ELLIOTT WAVE VIEW is our assessment of both the longer term (DAILY BARS) and shorter term (60 MINUTE BARS) EW structure. This is the basis for our STRATEGY.