Don't Make Trading Harder than it is

No problem this is here for us all to learn , This is good for me also I remember what I am suppose to be looking for. It’s funny how we forget how learning works, when we were in school we had to write things again and again. That helps us to remember the material. ( I forget how it goes the written word is 10 times stronger than the verbal or read word) I am doing that here for myself, and hope you are benefiting also… Plus Once we are done and you see how you can make some of this your own. Put it in black and white and study more information on the key points , become a expert on your strategy.

We will be addressing that issue pretty soon , but the key will be to know 2 things better than average profitable trades and when to call it quits on non-profitable trades. ( Always use profitable and nonprofitable we aren’t winning or losing, we aren’t gambling, Just some unforseen thing happened to move price the other way… That is going to happen) Our job is to make profit more often than not…

Good Trading To All Ken Lee    :D

Hi, do you use personally, or even just believe in patterns on the chart?

[U]Patterns like:[/U]
Double top
Head and shoulder
Triple bottom
Pattern in "M"
Flag pattern

Thanks.

melisky About patterns


Hi, do you use personally, or even just believe in patterns on the chart?

Patterns like:
Double top
Head and shoulder
Triple bottom
Pattern in "M"
Flag pattern

Thanks.

Yes I do use these patterns and we have already discussed the flag pattern and will cover the others soon…

             Good Trading To All   Ken Lee   :)

thanks kenneth! we are waiting for the next :slight_smile:

Double Top and other Patterns

 Since it was brought up let us go over some patterns that show up on a regular basis. I don't give them a lot of space because as you will see we trade them already as support and resistance Bounces and the way most have it written we would give away pips to trade them the PROPER way..

In area 1 we see a perfect double top. All a double top shows is where price has tried to break a resistance area twice and failed. Since we trade the bounces of our support / resistance lines we would already be in this trade…

The PROPER way and possibly safer, Is to wait for a break of the valley, then you go short. The green arrows are pointing to this level. The target is suppose to be equal the distance from the top of the M to the valley. Marked by the green lines. Making the exit the purple arrow.But if you trade it this way you give away 1/2 your pips…

 A double top is suppose to be within 1 or 2 pips of each other, But the whole idea is it tried to break a resistance area and failed. 

A double bottom is the same but testing support… The 1 ,2 and 3 combined are a Head and Shoulders ,or some call it a crown…
Same thought as the double top. But it had a breakout but pulled back below the resistance line.This pattern happens a lot around news the news will push it passed a resistance line which it didn’t want to cross , so it pulls back down. But as I said earlier I would have taken the trade of the test of the resistance line already…

 So what do we know now, Patterns are really the same things that we are always looking for but if we are waiting for them to appear. We are missing the big picture as there are lots of trades to be had without there use, That being said we use everything we see to help us make trade choices. So if you were in a trade and you see those patterns and you know how the OTHERS trade it we can assume the price will continue to that point as the OTHERS will push it there and then jump out because that is what your suppose to do ! 

I tend to trade against the OTHERS taking trades when they are getting out ( scalping ) And turning points.. Because there are always two sides. Some getting out others getting in, Just depends on who has the most money as to where it is going from here.. and be a long term trade or short term.

  Good Trading To All     Ken Lee      :cool:


Enjoyed the simple, no frills approach to explaining trendlines and s&r. Good job. This man deserves mad respect for taking the time and energy to put his ideas out there for the masses to pour over. Kudos to you Ken!

Oh…by the way…El Posto Numero Uno for yours truly!!
:smiley:

Have some people that needed to play catch up… Probablly post this weekend…:o

Fantastic data, Ken, you,re a ‘‘star’’.
I am new to trading and your comments about your trades constantly going against you when you started, is exactly whats happening to me now.
If I go long I guarantee the trade will go short.
I entered ten trades (demo) today and lost on nine of them.
I was seriously considering giving it up until now.

I shall presume by “lost” that you either grew fearful and manually closed your trade OR that your stop loss was hit, creating a loss (one would think a stop loss might protect, but never seems to do that, huh ?)

Now, I dont use stop losses cause i trade with the trend, so even if it looks bad, its gonna become good in a very short while — trading “counter trend”, especially in a high momentum market is CERTAINLY a good way to part with ones equity !

you are obviously entering at a temporary high (resistance) which then retraces by a bit and its getting you every time.

there is one site that ive been looking at that only tests EA’s and robots, and i notice their stoplosses are often a thousand pips below or above the price, and while that may be excessive, in this day and age, depending on the TIME you enter the trade, 100 or more is NOT considered excessive, but 10 or 20 is REALLY bad !

Forex is NOT that hard, but requires a bit of experience and learning — all the indicators in the world do you no good if you dont understand them and cant read what theyre prophesizing, and one year is NOT considered a long period of time to learn to be competent — mastery takes longer !

while i understand that being on a newbie site will evoke these questions, if one were to simply peruse what has already been said, go thru the pip school which is one of the main purposes of this site, one could learn and put that learning to the demo to perfect and fully understand.

Like anything else, it takes time to learn and absorb and if youre willing to do that you will NOT be one of the 95% who WASH OUT but rather part of the 5% who continue on to success.

enjoy and trade well

mp

[I][B]Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence – BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !!
[/B][/I]

Support/Resistance, Fib Trades Friday

  As we get into the use of all the tools we have discussed , I would like to show you some trades possible from Friday on the GBP/USD 15 min chart.. All the trades possible here are either Support / Resistance bounces or Fib Retracement , You will just have to take my word that these lines were here prior to todays trading I always draw my S/R lines on the weekend as to have my charts ready for trading the following week. 

The circled areas are the trade zones. The arrows show the direction of the trade, Most of this are scalping trades for me, Although they could be used for a entry to a longer trade such as the one  at 1.4600 , It never got close to that area again.. The circled areas with the X's in them are failed trades. The price did not bounce but continued on. This doesn't mean you entered them though. I always look for confirmation on my 1 minute chart that the price is slowing and then look for a turning candle before jumping in.

Even if you took all the trades taken with proper Money management you would be way ahead of the game , by days end. First thing is to prove this to yourself…

 The white lines are the Support and Resistance areas and the red arrows point towards the Fib levels drawn off a 2 hr chart from 1.4987 to 1.4138  the swing on that chart or this one if it is scroonged up. 

As you can see there are multitudes of available trades… there are only 4 or 5 that failed a failed trade is one that would net -1 or less 0 or above is acceptable… looking over this chart most are better for more than 15 pips some or 60 …

So what does this tell you,

  1. Do a little work before hand. ( Draw lines , set your Fib Levels)
  2. Don’t trade them straight away. Draw them first then check them
    later, Make a believer out of yourself.
    3.There are possible trades at every time…

No I didn’t take all these trades I did take some of them , I was trying to follow a different Strategy at the time and took my eye of the ball… I do trade this , and yes I am a scalper. I like the fast pace of it.
But you don’t have to be a scalper to appreciate the value of this information. If you trade higher time frames and this can help you get in earlier, so much the better…

  Good Trading To All     Ken Lee      :)


Hi Ken, once again, thanks for all that valuable information :slight_smile:

I have a question for you. When you look at you chart on the week end to draw your S/R levels, how long do you look back in time to see where the price react?

Thank you.

Thanks ‘mp’ for your response and your encouragement. I really appreciate it.
A couple of points I would like to mention.

  1. My stop loss was hit on all my losing trades which varied from 15 to 30 pips

  2. Your system of not using stop losses is contrary to what I have learnt about money management. Do you really recommend that? Its seems like a quick way of blowing one’s account.

3.What I like about Ken’s way, is one is trading is on what is happenning, not what might happen.
And if it does happen its almost too late.

  1. In my opinion (for whats its worth because I’m very new at trading so by all means shoot me down if you wish) Indicators, with the exception of those used by Ken, (s=r, trendlines, fibs etc,) are a promise of the future.
    Sometimes they work.
    Very often they dont.
    All my trades were based on the ema’s, stochastics and rsi heading in the right direction.
    What I was doing wrong, I think, was ignoring the price action.
    Best wishes and prosperous trading.
    MJ

May bad luck follow you but NEVER catch you up. Old Irish saying.

enjoy and trade well

mp

[I][B]Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !

As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence – BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !![/B][/I]

Thanks ‘mp’ for your comments
As you quite rightly point out the sl’s are too tight but there lies the dilemma for newbies. The recommendations are to open micro or mini accounts with a two or three thousand dollar account with a max risk of 2%, which means a stop loss or no more than 40 or 60 pips.
Yes, the answer could be to open a larger account but that would add to the existing trauma and anxiety of a beginner. Can you remember what it was like when you first started?

You state that there are better methods than price action and a better indicator than RSI. Can you share them?.
mj

The situation in the world today is serious but not hopeless.
In Ireland, the situation is hopeless but NEVER serious. Irish Joke

‘mp’ Further to my previous post, this is Ken’s thread so could you answer my queries on a different one.
Courtesy and good manners must prevail.
Thanks

I am sure Mp can give you a hand … He already has a thread,Here is the link…
As He said this is all basic information, My intent was to never rewrite the book just show how I see and use the information, and yes as I said in the begining it is too basic for some…

  Good Trading To All,   Ken Lee      :)

http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/18177-mp-some-my-non-secret-secrets.html

Melisky , You will have to wait till tomorrow , or later tonight been spending Valetines Day with the wife and I am currentlly making pizza dough… for homemade pizza…

   Take Care   Ken Lee     :D

Thanks for mp’s link but if its all the same to you I would rather stay with your thread and get to know the basics a bit better.

    I use a 1 hr chart mainly with wide screen monitors there is a lot of information on that screen. But you can also use a 2 , 4 hr. Look at all three you will see generally the levels are the same , Just with the smaller time frames there will be more candles hitting the areas and retreating..  2 hr candle = 2/1hr candles and 8/15 min 24/5 min.

Again as always the higher time frames are the more accurate levels… Next post will explain that… I have posted a 2 hr then changed the time to 1 hr… As you can see it is the same areas , Just more detail. Some people prefer the higher time frame as to filter out some of the “noise” . Basically this refers to less detail and you might not pick a area as it wouldn’t have as many hits. I tend to draw almost all areas of interest then remove them if they aren’t profitable areas, But always do your s/r and resistance lines on your clean chart then save them as they will never lose there importance… Price will move away from them but when it comes back, they will already be there , even months or years later…

The 3rd chart I am going to call your Instant S/R chart. You didn’t do your weekend setup , or price moved further than you had drawn your lines. Price is coming back down… Your looking for a exit , or a entry for a small trade… You glance to your left what do you see. a nice little stand of wick trees
( area 1). Price reaches this area and you now know it has a great probability to move back up at least for the short term. Which it does… So if you were short you would have saved 40 pips or if you went for a long made about 40.

Now your saying yeah GREAT , But how do I know when to get in the  trade, I see the areas but what says JUMP !.. This gets easier with time  you can actually see it on the 15 minute The candles start to slow and then pull back and the next is green, But hold on you already lost few pips waiting for those 15 min candles to do there thing..

Chart no. 4 is AREA 2 but a 1 min. chart.  You can see in area A the red candle slowing the next is a Inside bar higher low and lower high , Indecision

The next tried to continue down , But the green candle actually opened above the close of the red. That is your signal to JUMP !! I normally would have taken it off the red candle coming down and pushing threw the Support line. Then you ride it up till your 1 Min. Shows you another turn. As you can see A,B,C were all good trades… X was good too but it had pushed threw the Support line on the 1 min. But looking at the 15 it never stayed down there.

If you noticed price ended Friday right on a S/R line , Wonder which way it will go this afternoon ?

   Good Trading To All   Ken Lee       :)





That is the problem with this being my thread I get to post anything I want… Lucklly I downloaded the spell checker. But I still make mistakes as I know it is wrong sometimes !! LOL

 I just want to touch on a few thoughts I have about trading.. I tend to think in a problem solving manner. My only formal education was in industrial electrical repair, I would trouble shoot electrical problems in equiptment. The light don't work you have to find out why. With trading there is a big picture with that type work there is to. First check the easy things is the switch on. I can't tell you how many times I would get a call that something wasn't working and I would got to see what it was and it worked fine, I get the person who called to show me what is wrong , They Are hitting the stop button !!! No wonder it won't start !! This happens in trading also, We aren't trying to do this we just are. 
 
 One reason I belive is we aren't really learning this stuff we want a instant fix to our lifes.. NOTHING worth doing is easy.. You feel oh so much better when you work for something. 

You have decided to trade Forex, You REALLY want it to work ( why wouldn't you) So what is your job in this process ? Your job is to read and understand charts PERIOD. Candlestick patterns , Indicators, S/R lines , Trendlines , Fib levels. They are formed by the price action. We then have the indicators . which are lagging because price has to do something before the indicator sees it. and changes direction or color or whatever. Just like a relaly in a schematic. Which by the way is all computors are bunch of switches. So why is it so hard .. We are looking for to much we are complicating things.

I have been on this site for 2 years or so, I read almost every thread to some extent , I have seen time and a again . Person will start a thread has a great little system that WORKS. Starts getting input from other people try this or that. Guys Little system quits working he can't figure it , Thinks he is doing the same thing but he isn't and he doesn't rememeber what he started with.. Point is if you find something that works for you write it down before you start changinf it. That way when it quits working you can go back and start over again.

There are to types of traders here that I see profit consistentlly. The first are those with the ability to trade long term due to account size and mental ability. Some people can't stand to watch those huge draw downs. I am one.

The other and probablly the majority on this site right now, Are the ones who just take a lots of small profits and build there accounts that way. I think this is the case as being begginers in this we have that snatch and grab atittude. Which as you see yourself leaving money on the table you start to learn to hold a bit longer each trade till you too will be making longer term trades. Then you have those that take small gains with huge stops… Scares the %#@& out of me… I comes to mind 200 to 300 pips a day… 1000 pip stop lose. or the GBP/JPY equadity building sytstem buy gbp jpy on the way down , waiting on a turn around… But both work for those people…

It isn't  the strategy or system it is what is right for you.. If you are all waiting for me to show you precise entries and exits. That isn't my internt here it is to get you to see . What is happening and learn to anticipate the next move , you be the switch but instead of the price action telling your indicator to do something it is telling you to do something, cutting out another time delay in the process.

Practical Information,

 As in the previous post, I showed how with nothing but your bare charts you could have made 3 or 4 profitable trades. And all you have to do is look to the left at prior price action on the same time frame chart. You could have taken the trades off the same chart. but the faster one gives you better details.

 Analogy Hell ;    

Your driving (we all drive right). You come to a intersection what do we do? We look both ways and if you were taught correctlly . You look left ,right , and left again. Because when you looked left the first time you weren't really looking you just turned your head , I know you have all done this you look you pull out and damn where did that car come from ? I live In Key West and ride a bicycle a lot. People from other parts of the country do not see bicycles, becuase they don't deal with them in there towns. For more on that read the book called IN THE ZONE.

Anyway before making a desicsion to proceed look both ways . To your left to see where price has been and will return to and the right where price might go next. If we new where it was going we would be rich , and you can be if you LEARN to read a chart… if price breaks a S/R or fib level. where is it going. To the next S/R or Fib level of course. So why do so many people pay to see that, by Stop Loss. If you know it is headed there get out wait for the next level and try again save your money. Our only questionable area is our swings. this can tell use the trend is changing but it also can show the start of consolidation. So we have a bit of time waiting there…

So how do you become great at reading charts… Study them you have choosen this a syour job and it is one and hard at first but like evry job you ever had it gets easier with time … But saying that we all know people that struggle through there entire lifes , but most have one thing in common they are the ones who didn’t learn what they are doing thought they could fake there way through it, or ride someone elses coat tails. But your on your own here …

 Everyday  pick your trading time, at the end of everyday hit ctrl and printscreen, open paint and save it , make special file on your desktop for these charts. Then analysis them , you will start to see the repeating patterns that happen almost everyday. At the opening of the sessions the closing of the same , Lunch hour etc... It is all there for free.. we just need to see it.

I have babbled enough, Gotta co take the rental car back…

  Tae Care Ken Lee   :confused: