I wrote a trading system based on the martingale that gives mixed results depending on which currency pair I test it with and over what period.
What is sure is that you can guarantee a certain percentage return before the martingale ‘Blows up’, usually 100% a month or so: EUR/USD and CABLE tend to get to 10x your account balance before all hell breaks loose if you stick to 14 steps or above.
Logic (Standard setting): Enters a Buy and Sell 6 pips SL 15 pips TP. each time a loss occurs on either side, the lot size on that side grows 1.5 times, with a little room to cash in more money for trades that lose a lot before they come back.
you can set the minimum your account should go down to on blowing up, that sets the initial step sizes. also splitting the risk between both side means that one side can blow up and only affect your account balance by the fraction of your account balance you place on say, sells.
Initially it divides the account into 2 to start trading an equal amount of buys and sell. if any one side loses 4 times it takes stock of which (buys or sells) is performing better and re-portions the account balance assigned to the buys or sells accordingly.
you can choose the start date and time, but it switches itself off every Friday at 5:00pm and back on again the following Monday from midnight.
It has given me mixed results based on the currency pair and start time: usually 100% to 10,000% return in 1 to 4 months before going tits up.
One further trick to increase your profit potential might be to run it on 3 or 4 separate currency pairs (split your account balance between different accounts) simultaneously and play the odds.
One approach I tried was based on this logic:
- working with £10,000 on four different accounts.
- the max loss on each account assuming the martingale goes to 15 steps and blows up from start: £6,000
- Looking for just one of the four accounts to recover all losses on the other three in the worst case
- 3 loses = £18,000.
- The probability of one account growing from £10,000 to £10,000 + £18,000 = £28,000 is 65%
- on 4 separate accounts then the only way I can lose is if all 4 lose before getting to £28,000
[B]Probability 4 lose before £28,000 = 1.5%[/B]
Probability 3 lose before £28,000 = 11.15% (Break Even)
Probability 2 lose before £28,000 = 31.05% (51+% Return)
Probability 1 lose before £28,000 = 38.45%
Probability 0 lose before £28,000 = 17.85%
Pluses: In the event that an account blows up before hitting £28,000, it would have made some money thus the max loss would be less than £6,000.
If you want a copy of the EA for free please let me know and I’ll either post it here or PM it if I can.
I could do with doing more testing to zero in on the precise Prob(Lose before £28,000)
One of many missed edits. If I configure it to give 2 -2.5 % a day there is no 'Blow Up" on pairs so far tested