Using probabilities and basic trading concepts with trade management. Everything off the phone. Goal is to double the account more times than it fails.
Looking for trending pairs with good volatility over the past month. Entering on retracements/pullbacks in the direction of the trend.
Attempt #1: RIP 
Feb 15-March 5th 2024 -$100
Attempt #2: Attempt #2
Entered first trade today; short AudUsd at 0.6532. Next couple scenarios mapped out on price chart.
Starting $100 account… 0.01 Lot… initial TP at 50 pips… 500:1 leverage… +5% profit goal per trade to $200… which should be about 14 profitable positions at +5%< a piece.
Trade Explorers on ForexFactory: Trade Explorers
Entered 4 more trades:
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UsdCad long. 2:1 Risk:Reward, 67% chance of win.
EurCad short. 4:1 Risk:Reward, 80% chance of win.
NzdChf short. 2:1 Risk:Reward, 67% chance of win.
GbpAud short 1:1 Risk:Reward, 50% chance of win.
how is the win chance calculated?
R-multiple of trade. R-multiple of 1 = 50/50. R-multiple of 0.5 = 67% chance of win. One of the trade strategies is never going over 1R per trade.
Interesting. that win chance is the same as win % right? I thought one needed data on # of wins and losses first to obtain this number
Ya it’s all relative. I’ve been simulating trades for months now. Math all works out. You can actually buy or sell randomly and get the same results. When trading a retracement, I’m simulating a loss, preferably two, before I enter.
Here’s an example of the GbpAud price action showing 6 short trades at 1R… Simulated loss, enter for win, simulated loss, enter for win. Taking the other side of the trade is also common, but I’ve chosen a direction trend or range based on past month’s performance.
Fascinating.
the 6 short trades in your screen, is that from an app?
Drawing them out on TradingView app. Using mt5 to trade.
Ah this is cool. Never actually knew what Trade Explorer was. Cool stats. Seems.like it’s similar to something like myfxbook, right?
How long are your trades lasting. Less than a day?
Correct. Ya… usually within a day but there a few that are just hanging around still. Time doesn’t really matter too much to the positions. Unless there’s signs of reversing.
In heavy drawdown from being overexposed in Chf longs & Gbp-Nzd shorts. Hopefully I’ll have enough margin to manage these trades. May cut some down just to be able to adjust.
Here’s the plan for GbpChf:
Short .02 lots at 1.1103 & .02 lots at 1.1160; targeting 1.1130.
Pending sell order for .04 lots at 1.1275; targeting 1.1202
Similar management for GbpCad:
Doubling an account is an ambitious goal that requires a combination of effective trading strategies, disciplined risk management, and patience. Focus on consistent, sustainable growth rather than seeking rapid gains, and prioritize preserving capital to withstand market fluctuations. Implementing a well-defined trading plan with clear entry and exit rules, along with diligent performance analysis and continuous learning, can increase the likelihood of doubling your account over time.
Can you take $100 acct → $200? 
Any updates on account? Thanks.
Ya I’ll keep every attempt on https://www.forexfactory.com/ryan420#acct.48 currently in drawdown on Chf longs, Gbp & Eur shorts on #1
