DXY – Bearish day. As expected, the Dollar continued dropping. And as expected, the Hourly Rebalance area acted well as support for the day. I did take two trades yesterday which I will recap in the trade review, but this rebalance area definitely impacted those trades as expected. Originally, we saw a bounce higher and then drop back into and has consolidated since.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Price moved almost exactly as we forecast. We got the retrace back to the NYMO and then the move higher. Price moved right through the first Hourly OB at 1.1920 and then retraced it a bit. This retracement coincided with the Dollar hitting the rebalance area. We then saw another push higher but did not reach the secondary target at the Hourly OB of 1.1959.
GBPUSD – Flat day. Price consolidated today which allowed the EURUSD to move as much as it did. We got the retrace back down to the NYMO open as expected but did not get the move up to the 2-day prior low at 1.3898 due to the consolidation.
Trade Review EURUSD – M15
With the Hourly Rebalance support area on the Dollar, I managed my SL much closer than I normally would. The entry took place just before the NYMO based on an M15 Bullish Breaker. Once price reached the 1.1930 level, the Dollar was at its rebalance area. Because of this and a likely bounce in the Dollar, I exited half my position at 1.1925 and moved my SL up to 1.1915, which was hit a short later. I definitely overplayed the SL and had I followed my normal rules, we would have hit the first target and then stopped on the second target, but still for a profit. The position made 27 pips on the first position and 17 pips on the second position, yielding a little more than 2:1 overall return.
GBPUSD – M15
On the GBPUSD, I entered quite a bit prior to the NYMO based on M15 FVG and OB. I did have 12 pips of drawdown as price did reach for the NYMO before moving higher. I only had one target on this position based price action. Once price made a new market structure high, I moved my SL up. Normally I would not move my SL that early, but again, the Dollar had dropped into the rebalance area, so I needed to protect my position. Price ended up hitting my adjusted SL at 1.3845. This resulted in a loss of 7 pips, which was about 1/3 of my original SL.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 92.13 (Monthly) and OB 92.18 (Weekly)
Bullish – FVG High 91.36 (Weekly)
Bias – Flat
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 92.13 (Monthly) and OB 92.18 (Weekly)
Bullish – OB 91.89 … next NYMO 91.82
Weekly … The Monthly and Weekly OB’s above 92.13 have kept price from moving higher. The expectation for this week is that these OB’s will continue to act as resistance and keep price below this level. I will be looking for the Dollar to drop and reach for the Monthly Bullish OB at 89.10.
Daily … Price has already moved up into the Weekly Open at 92.08 and rejected. Just beyond the Weekly Open are the Monthly and Weekly Bearish OB’s. I would expect this area to act as strong resistance and either push the Dollar lower or consolidate in this area. Today I will be looking for a retrace down to the Hourly Bullish OB at 91.89 and then move back up towards the HTF resistance levels. Essentially looking for consolidation the rest of the day.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG Low 1.1990 (Weekly & Daily)
Bullish –RB 1.1844 … next OB 1.1936 (Monthly … mean 1.1792)
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 1.1904 … next OB 1.1923
Bullish – OB 1.1865
Weekly … Price has been moving right around the Monthly Bullish OB at 1.1936. Until it breaks the mean threshold at 1.1792, I will remain bullish on the EURUSD. With the Dollar sitting below a good resistance level, I will be expecting the EURUSD level to support price and drive it higher … potentially reaching for the liquidity above 1.2200 long term but 1.2000 as early as this week.
Daily … We have already seen a big move lower off the NYMO open resistance level. I am expecting the EURUSD to continue lower today. I will be looking for a retrace back up towards the Hourly Bearish OB at 1.1923 followed by a move towards the Hourly OB at 1.1865.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-Day Prior Low 1.3898 … next FVG Low 1.4028
Bullish –BISI high 1.3830 (Weekly)
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.3831 next … NYMO 1.3848
Bullish – January High 1.3760 … next OB 1.3744
Weekly … The January high of 1.3760 was a target for retracement when March trading started. Price has come close but not quite reached that level. If price leaves the remaining area open and does not reach 1.3760, this will be very bullish for the GBPUSD. The Weekly BISI between 1.3758 and 1.3830 has worked well as support for all three weeks of March. Until shown something different, I will expect this area to continue supporting price and push it towards the liquidity above 1.4000.
Daily … The Weekly BISI has acted as good support for a couple weeks now. Every time it is hit, it gets weaker. However, until it breaks, I will still rely on it for support. Today looks like the day it could be filled. Price is close to the liquidity below 1.3800 and could easily reach into it and through it. Because of the Weekly BISI’s prior strength, I will not trade short on the GBPUSD yet. But today I will be looking for a retrace up to the Bearish Hourly OB at 1.3831 and then target the January High at 1.3760 which is the bottom end of the BISI.
DXY – Bullish day. Price kept moving higher all day. Did not get the resistance and consolidation I expected at the Weekly and Monthly OB’s around the 92.20 area.
EURUSD – Bearish day. As expected, price continued lower throughout the day. However, we did not get the retracement up we needed to find a possible entry. Price has reached the Bullish Daily Rejection Block at 1.1844 and begun to consolidate.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Price did indeed fill the BISI as forecasted yesterday. Originally it drove right into the bottom end of the BISI which correlated with January’s Monthly high, and then bounced. Since then, price has resumed moving lower and dropped into the Bullish Daily Mitigation Block at 1.3736.
Daily … Price has already made a retrace back down to the NYMO and is now moving higher. While I do not expect another retrace down, it is possible … and will still look to the NYMO at 92.37 as support. Looking for price to reach towards the Monthly Bearish OB Mean at 93.14.
Key Levels
Bearish – MB 1.1840 … next NYMO 1.1849
Bullish – OB Mean 1.1792 (Monthly)
Daily … The move I would be looking for has already happened, just like on the Dollar. Price moved away from the NYMO and then retraced back up into a Mitigation Block at 1.1840, where it found resistance and has since moved lower. Will look for another retracement up for possible resistance area and then target the Monthly OB Mean at 1.1792 for price to move lower today.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG low 1.3760 (Daily also low of broken Weekly BISI)
Bullish –OB 1.3367 (Monthly and Daily)
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3727 … FVG low 1.3760 (Daily also low of broken Weekly BISI)
Bullish – OB 1.3585
Daily … Price right now has retraced up to the NYMO at 1.3727. I am expecting it to drop from here, but a move up to the Daily FVG low at 1.3760 would also make for a great entry area. Price found earlier support at 1.1670, which is a Daily level. Moving back down, this area should not act as support any longer. Will be looking for a move into the Hourly BISI below 1.3650 and targeting the Hourly OB at 1.3585 … not in one move today, that is too far.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB Mean at 93.14 (Monthly)
Bullish – 2-day prior high 92.40 … next FVG High 91.36 (Weekly)
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish –OB Mean 93.14 (Monthly)
Bullish – NYMO 92.54 … next 2-day prior high 92.40
Daily … Price has continued moving higher and taking liquidity above. Next Daily liquidity pool is above 92.80 and then 93.20. With yesterday’s consolidation, a move back down into that consolidation as low as the 2-day prior high at 92.40 is what I will be looking for today before expecting price to continue higher. Price can run all the up to the Monthly Bearish OB Mean at 93.14 and then resume downward movement. But will need to see price action prior to making that assessment.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-day prior low 1.1842 (Confluence with potential Mitigation Block) … next FVG Low 1.1990 (Weekly & Daily)
Bullish –OB mean 1.1792 (Monthly)
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish –NYMO 1.1823 … next 2-day prior low 1.1842
Bullish – OB Mean 1.1792 (Monthly) … next OB 1.1774
Daily … Expecting price to continue lower today. Ideal scenario would be a retrace up the 2-day prior low at 1.1842 and then a continuation to the downside. But I will look for resistance from the NYMO at 1.1823 up to that 2-day prior low and then target the Monthly Bullish OB mean at 1.1792. Breaking below this will be very bearish for the EURUSD.
Daily … Other than prior Daily lows, there is not much resistance below price right now. If the Dollar continues moving higher, we could see a drop to the 1.3350 level … over 300 pips from where price currently is. Expecting price to continue lower today. I will be looking for resistance around the NYMO area at 1.3700 and then a move lower towards the Hourly OB at 1.3585.
DXY – Bullish day. Price did continue moving higher throughout the day. We also got two retracements back towards the NYMO that we were looking for which was followed by price moving above the 92.80 liquidity level and taking Buy Stops.
EURUSD – Bearish day. Price moved lower on the EURUSD. We got the retracement back up towards the NYMO open, not as high as would have been ideal, but enough to take a trade on the M15. Price then moved through the initial target at the Monthly OB Mean of 1.1792 and then to the Hourly OB at 1.1774 for a potential 30-50 pips.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. Saw a large drop in the EURGBP yesterday which is why the GBPUSD was bullish and the EURUSD was bearish. Price moved up through the NYMO and all the up to the 2-day prior low at 1.3741 before consolidating the rest of the day.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB Mean at 93.14 (Monthly)
Bullish – 2-day prior high 92.61 … next FVG High 91.50
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish –NYMO 92.76 … next OB Mean 93.14 (Monthly)
Bullish – 2-day prior high 92.61
Daily … Looking for the NYMO at 92.76 to act as resistance today and push price lower, potentially reaching for the 2-day prior high at 92.61. Could just be a consolidation Friday. No big news events to drive price.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-day prior low 1.1810 … next MB 1.1844
Bullish –BISI High 1.1603 (Monthly)
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish –2-day prior low 1.1810
Bullish – NYMO 1.1781 … next OB 1.1740
Daily … Price hit an Hourly breaker with low of day yesterday at 1.1762. I am expecting price to move higher today and/or consolidate. Looking to the NYMO at 1.1781 to act as support and push price towards the 2-day prior low at 1.1810.
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3764 … OB 1.3831
Bullish – OB 1.3585
Daily … With the Dollar and EURUSD in possible consolidation today, the GBPUSD could be the big mover. The EURGBP is reaching for a Daily lower liquidity area which will drive the GBPUSD higher. Looking for the NYMO at 1.3764 to act as support and push price higher through the Daily FVG and up into the Daily Bearish Mitigation Block at 1.3824.
EURUSD – Bullish to flat day. Same as the Dollar, the EURUSD consolidated around the NYMO. Price did move up towards the2-day prior low at 1.1810 but did not quite make it there before moving back down to consolidation.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. As expected with the Dollar and EURUSD in consolidation, the GBPUSD did indeed move higher. This aligned with the expected drop on the EURGBP also. Price retraced back down to the NYMO at 1.3764 and then moved up through the Daily FVG reaching for the Daily Mitigation Block at 1.3824. Price fell just short before moving into consolidation for the rest of the day.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB Mean at 93.14 (Monthly)
Bullish – BISI low 92.61 … next FVG High 91.50
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish –OB Mean 93.14 (Monthly)
Bullish – NYMO 92.78 … next Weekly Open 92.75
Weekly … If the Dollar gets above 93.14, it will most likely continue moving higher and reach for at least the Monthly/Weekly SIBI above 94.75 … next Weekly Open 92.75
Daily … The Dollar is starting of the week in consolidation. This has allowed an early move on the GBPUSD as the EURGBP has dropped into a liquidity area which kept the EURUSD consolidated in early trading and let the GBPUSD move higher. Looking for the Dollar to either remain in consolidation or move higher. The NYMO at 92.78 and Weekly Open at 92.75 are acting as support to keep the Dollar higher today.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 1.1810 … next MB 1.844
Bullish –BISI High 1.1600 (Monthly)
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.1786 … next Weekly Open 1.1794
Bullish – OB 1.1740
Weekly … Price has moved below the Monthly OB mean at 1.1792. I have left this level on the chart for now as this could still influence price. This is very bearish for the EURUSD. Will be looking for price to drop into the Monthly BISI below 1.6000 as long as the Dollar continues higher.
Daily … As mentioned above on the Dollar, the EURUSD has been in consolidation this morning also but drifting lower. It had a quick run up to the Weekly Open at 1.1794 where it found resistance and came back down. Expecting the EURUSD to either remain in consolidation or move lower. From price right now, will be looking for a retrace back up to the NYMO at 1.1786 and then drop towards the Hourly OB at 1.1740.
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3779 … next Weekly Open 1.3792
Bullish – 2-Day Prior High 1.3745
Weekly … Price is still moving away from last month’s Bearish Rejection Block … down almost 500 pips from that level. Would have been a nice long-term position but I do not trade those. Just need to capitalize on the continued movement down on the Daily charts. Price reached a Bullish Weekly OB last week and bounced a little, but I do not expect this level to hold. Will be looking for price to push down towards the Bullish Monthly OB at 1.3367.
Daily … With the EURGBP dropping into a significant liquidity area, the GBPUSD was able to move higher today. Price dropped almost to the 2-day prior high at 1.3745 before shooting up to the hourly OB at 1.3831 AND, more importantly, the Daily Bearish Mitigation Block at 1.3824. If the EURGBP keeps dropping, then the GBPUSD could move higher. However, I will be looking for the Daily MB to act as resistance and either keep price consolidated or push it back down moving in the direction of the Monthly OB mentioned in the Weekly forecast above.
DXY – Bullish to flat day. As expected, the Dollar was mainly in consolidation after I posted the forecast. It had a slight move higher before returning the consolidated area.
EURUSD – Bearish to flat day. Also as expected, the EURUSD was mainly in consolidation after posting the forecast. Although price came close the liquidity below 1.1760 a couple times, it could not reach into it … possibly setting up an expansion today.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. The Hourly Mitigation Block did indeed act as resistance and push price lower. Price shot down past the NYMO and reached for the 2-day prior high at 1.3745 but could not quite get there.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB Mean at 93.14 (Monthly)
Bullish – BISI low 92.61 … next FVG High 91.50
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish –OB Mean 93.14 (Monthly)
Bullish – NYMO 92.92 … next Weekly Open 92.75
Weekly … If the Dollar gets above 93.14, it will most likely continue moving higher and reach for at least the Monthly/Weekly SIBI above 94.75 … next Weekly Open 92.75
Daily … The move I was looking for today took place during the London Session. Price already hit the Monthly OB Mean at 93.14 and then dropped. Currently, price is moving back to that mean. I do not expect it to hold, but there is a possibility of consolidation at this level. I will be looking for the price to reach up into the Daily Imbalance above 93.40. I do not expect a big retracement but will need one to at least the Hourly FVG around 93.00 before I can enter a trade.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 1.1810 … next MB 1.844
Bullish –BISI High 1.1600 (Monthly)
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.1767 … next Weekly Open 1.1794
Bullish – OB 1.1740 … next 1.1660
Weekly … Price has moved below the Monthly OB mean at 1.1792. I have left this level on the chart for now as this could still influence price. This is very bearish for the EURUSD. Will be looking for price to drop into the Monthly BISI below 1.6000 as long as the Dollar continues higher.
Daily … Price dropped into the liquidity below 1.1760 during the London Session and ran into the Hourly Bullish OB at 1.1740 where it has found support. As with the Dollar, I do not expect this level hold and will be looking for price to continue dropping. Will be looking for a retrace back up to the NYMO or at least the Hourly FVG and then a move lower towards the Hourly OB at 1.1660. With no news today, price will not reach that level, but rather move “towards” that level.
Key Levels
Bearish – MB 1.3824
Bullish –2-Day Prior High 1.3745 … next RB 1.3687
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3777 … next Weekly Open 1.3792
Bullish – 2-Day Prior High 1.3745 … next RB 1.3687
Weekly … Price is still moving away from last month’s Bearish Rejection Block … down almost 500 pips from that level. Would have been a nice long-term position but I do not trade those. Just need to capitalize on the continued movement down on the Daily charts. Price reached a Bullish Weekly OB last week and bounced a little, but I do not expect this level to hold. Will be looking for price to push down towards the Bullish Monthly OB at 1.3367.
Daily … The GBPUSD dropped the rest of the way to that 2-day prior high yesterday at 1.3745, found support, moved backup to the NYMO at 1.3777, and then dropped again. On the M15 there is a nice level to sell if price retrace back up towards the NYMO. Will be looking for that level and then a move down to the Daily Rejection Block at 1.3687.
DXY – Bullish day. Had a small consolidation around the Daily OB Mean at 93.14 and then price moved higher … right up into the Daily Imbalance area at 93.40 … just as forecasted. Did not get the retracement I was looking for, however, the GBPUSD presented a good trade opportunity.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Beautiful delivery of price as forecasted! Price retraced back up to the NYMO and gave a great entry on the M15 as I mentioned in my forecast. Gave almost 70 pips in this trade … however, I needed the additional 5 pips to hit my second target, which did not happen.
Sold the GBPUSD based on an M15 Bearish OB at 1.3775. Did not need the retrace on the Dollar as the price on the GBPUSD did not drop with the price on the Dollar, but rather stayed consolidated. This provided an opportunity for expansion to the downside on the GBPUSD if the Dollar continued lower, which is exactly what happened. We did get a big retrace back up to the entry area after the initial drop, but SL was not moved so we were ok with the NYMO acting as support again. Price then dropped to the 1st target, consolidated, and then dropped towards the 2nd target. After reaching target 1, I trailed the SL down based on pivot highs. Price came within 5 pips of reaching the 2nd target before retracing up and hitting the trailed stop loss at 1.3741. Netted 40 pips on the first half and 34 pips on the 2nd half.
Key Levels
Bearish – Price Imbalance High 93.55
Bullish – 2-Day Prior High 92.64
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish –Brkr 93.23 … next NYMO 93.40
Bullish – 2-Day Prior High 92.64
Daily … Price hit the Daily Imbalance at 93.40 and has since dropped and found support around 93.15 but I do not expect this to be strong. Ideally, I am looking for a retrace back up to the Hourly Breaker at 93.23 and then drop to the 2-Day Prior High at 92.64.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.1764 (Daily)
Bullish – OB 1.1723 next … NYMO 1.1707
Daily … The 1.1760 liquidity draw was hit yesterday. The next big liquidity draw is below 1.1600. I am looking at this drop into liquidity as a stop run and now expecting price to move higher. Will be looking for a retrace down the Hourly OB at 1.1723 and then a move up to the Daily OB at 1.1764.
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 1.3792 … next MB 1.3824 (Daily)
Bullish – OB 1.3753 … next NYMO 1.3728
Daily … Price has already moved higher into the Weekly Open price at 1.3792. Expecting price to either consolidate and then move higher or retrace back to the Hourly OB at 1.3753 and then move higher through the Weekly Open.
DXY – Flat day overall. After posting we did see the retrace to the NYMO and then a drop down to the 2-day prior high at 92.64, followed by price returning to the NYMO.
EURUSD – Bullish day. We got the retrace back to the Hourly Bullish OB at 1.1723 that I was looking for. Unfortunately, on the M15, the entry point was at 1.1718 and price did not drop that low before shooting up towards the Daily OB at 1.1764 as expected. So no trade yesterday, but price still delivered as expected.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. Price as moved as expected on the GBPUSD. We got the retrace back down to the Hourly OB at 1.3753 and on the M15 there was a “almost” perfect entry point just before this level. However, based on the Reward-to-Risk ratio, this trade did not fall within my rules, so no trade on this pair either. Price then moved up past the Weekly Open as expected and towards the Daily Mitigation Block at 1.3824 but found resistance in the Hourly FVG first.
Today … The Dollar is swinging back and forth so far today. The EURUSD moved up and has returned back to the NYMO. The GBPUSD has moved down and returned back to the NYMO. No symmetry or direction. Again, this is most likely due to NFP Friday tomorrow. ALSO … US markets are closed tomorrow due to Easter Holiday.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 93.37 … next Price Imbalance high 93.55 (Daily)
Bullish – NYMO 93.23 … next OB 93.11
Daily … Price has bounced between Hourly FVG’s so far today. Not expecting much today due to NFP tomorrow. Likely to see price swing back and forth with no clear direction.
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3782 … next Weekly Open 1.3792
Bullish – OB 1.3753 … RB 1.3687 (Daily)
Daily … Opposite of the EURUSD, the GBPUSD started down today and has moved back to the NYMO. Again, not expecting a specific direction for movement today.
April Fool’s!! We all new the Dollar would drop while the EURUSD and GBPUSD would shoot up. Right? Right??
DXY – Bearish day. I am surprised but not surprised by the move down on the Dollar yesterday. Was expecting a back-and-forth day, but price dropped like a rock in late morning trading. With a lack of institutional money and NFP on Friday, price was vulnerable to an expansion … which is why I am not really surprised.
EURUSD – Bullish day. The big move late on the Dollar also drove an expansion up on the EURUSD. Price shot the Daily Rejection Block at 1.1764 and then consolidated.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. While I was not looking for a trade yesterday, in hindsight, the dip down at 03:00 just before the London session into the Hourly OB at 1.3753 was textbook and could have yielded almost 100 pips. But … hindsight is always 20/20.
US markets are closed which means low institutional money in the markets during the NY session AND it is NFP Friday … which I never trade anyway due to the high probability of market manipulation.
If you trade today, you are true gambler. Let me know when you are in Las Vegas and I will meet there for some poker.
Price already hit the Monthly OB Mean at 93.14 and then dropped. Currently, price is moving back to that mean. I do not expect it to hold, but there is a possibility of consolidation at this level. I will be looking for the price to reach up into the Daily Imbalance above 93.40. I do not expect a big retracement but will need one to at least the Hourly FVG around 93.00 before I can enter a trade.
