New here to BP but have been trading for about 4 years. Starting this thread to give my perspective on the DXY, EURUSD, and GBPUSD. Will only focus on daily and hourly analysis. Posting forecasts here for accountability purposes as I eventually may consider a signal service or starting a fund.
I trade the New York session and will post my forecasts relative to that session only.
I trade on the M15 and occasionally the M5.
I trade price action only and DO NOT use indicators.
I never risk more than 1% on any single trade.
My YTD results:
Total Trades: 59 W/L: 56%/44%
R:R 2.2 (yes I take partial profits) … but I target at least 3 to 1
Max Drawdown 5.7% over 38 days. Then 8 days to regain.
YTD (thru Oct) return: 29.8%
No, I will not post statements or trades here. If you do not believe my results ¯_(ツ)_/¯ … review my forecasts below and judge for yourself.
DXY D1
Liquidity
Above 93.20
Below 92.15 Bias – Bearish
Looking to reach for recent low @ 92.13 and ultimately 91.75
Already moved past prior days low H1
Resistance @ 92.30-92.40 … focusing on lower to mid-range
No more support before prior low @ 92.13
Support @ 91.90. Possible pause here but daily bias should push lower
EURUSD D1
Liquidity
Above 1.1920 (large liquidity draw)
Below 1.1745 Bias – Bullish
Looking to reach for liquidity pool @ 1.1920 and then Sept high @ 1.2011 H1
Targeting liquidity above 1.1895 then D1 upper liquidity
Also have H1 liquidity below 1.1850. Do not think price will return here today.
Support @ 1.1860 – 1.1865
GBPUSD D1
Liquidity
Above 1.3315
Below 1.3105 Bias – Bullish
Looking to reach D1 liquidity pool @ 1.3315 and then Sept high @ 1.3482 H1
Targeting D1 liquidity above
Support @ 1.3265 – 1.3275
Liquidity below 1.3245. Price should not return here today.
2020/11/18 Recap DXY – Overall Bearish day but basically moved sideways after initial drop. Hit resistance around 92.45 after filling in an imbalanced price action area just above forecasted resistance. Then moved lower towards prior low @ 92.13 but rejected and moved higher.
EURUSD – Bearish day showing significant weakness compared to GBP (EURGBP). Fell through forecasted support reaching for the liquidity at 1.1850 where it initially rejected but has since taken this area.
GBPUSD – Bullish day showing significant strength compared to EUR. Price found forecasted support around 1.3265 then moved higher towards the liquidity pool above 1.3315 but was rejected. Possible 30-40 pips if traded. After rejection, price moved lower to then take liquidity at 1.3245 this morning during Asian session.
DXY D1
Liquidity
Above 93.20
Below 92.15 Bias – Neutral
Price moving higher towards price imbalance. Looking for possible rejection around 92.65 – 92.70, however price could move up to 92.85. Higher than this and I will expect price to continue higher. At time of this posting, price at the 92.65 level.
Note high impact news releases at 08:30 (New York Local) H1
Liquidity above weekly high @ 92.84 (note confluence with D1)
Liquidity below weekly low @ 92.20
Support @ 92.40 … Gap in price along with potential institutional pricing
EURUSD EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … weak EUR relative to GBP D1
Liquidity
Above 1.1920 (large liquidity draw)
Below 1.1745 Bias – Bearish … however may change to bullish once price reaches support areas identified below. Watching price.
Support at 1.1800 – 1.1815
Ultimately targeting liquidity above H1
Liquidity below weekly low 1.1814. Looking for price to reach into this liquidity by up to 10 pips then move higher based on D1 price action.
H1 action … could see price retrace up to 1.1840-1.1845 then move lower into liquidity.
GBPUSD EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … strong GBP relative to EUR D1
Liquidity
Above 1.3315
Below 1.3105
Bias – Neutral
Strong liquidity above @ 1.3315 (classic TA Double Top … Trap?) H1
Resistance @ 1.3225
Potential retrace into resistance then move lower towards weekly low @1.3165 where there is liquidity
2020/11/19 Recap
Good forecasting leads to great trades!
DXY – Overall Bearish day with nice rejection at 92.70 as forecasted and significant move lower.
Moved quickly through H1 support approaching the weekly low of 92.20.
EURUSD – This forecast and movement yielded several trade setups. First the hourly move to resistance @ 1.1840 then rejected to 1.1815, D1 Support and my area to turn bullish, as I mentioned in the forecast. From this level we saw price move up 85 pips with plenty of opportunities to take part in that move.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Glad I was remained neutral on this pair. We did see H1 pricing hit Resistance and begin to move lower that initial hour, but could not take out the low of the day and therefore moved significantly higher based on dollar weakness and GBP strength relative to EUR.
EDIT note: corrected date of recap from 2020/11/20 to 2020/11/19
Price is balanced until it moves above the liquidity @ 93.20.
Looking for price to continue towards prior low @ 92.13. Breaking below this low could see quick movement towards 91.80.
H1
Although I’m bearish on the day, price on the H1 is currently looking to move to the upside or close down only slightly.
Could see retracement up to resistance @ 92.45. This area needs to rebalance price. Looking to reach this area than move lower to at least the low of the day and liquidity below 92.20.
Bias – Neutral … mainly due to relative strength of GBP. Watching price.
Support at 1.1800 – 1.1815 … weak because it was already hit yesterday. A break below this could see a quick move to 1.1700
I’m still focused on the liquidity above and looking for price to move there.
H1
Liquidity
Above 1.1890 near the weekly high
Below weekly low 1.1800
Current H1 action suggests price will remain bearish today. If so, looking for price to drop support @ 1.1840.
Strong liquidity above @ 1.3315 (classic TA Double Top … Trap?). Big draw on price which is why I’m still bullish. H1
Not much in form of resistance until reaching above the liquidity @ 1.3315
There is a price imbalance below 1.3250 that could draw price lower… potentially down to 1.3220
Ultimately, I’m looking for support at the 1.3260 area to keep price higher on the day.
DXY – Day was slightly bullish. Basically, a spinning top if you’re a candle trader.
We did see price move to move to 92.43, just shy of the 92.45 forecasted and then move a little lower on the day. But significantly lower today Asian/European sessions and making a move towards the low @ 92.13.
EURUSD – Bearish on the day but moving still moving sideways.
Price essentially rebalanced on the downside but could not reach the 1.1840 support area.
GBPUSD – Bullish day … no surprise since we still the GBP relatively stronger to the EUR.
We did see the 1.3260 support area called out hold price and push it higher. Significantly higher today taking out our liquidity above that 1.3315 are making a strong move even higher.
NOTE: I do not trade the week of Thanksgiving. I will provide forecasts through Wednesday, but they will be very general. More detailed ones will resume next week.
DXY D1
Liquidity
Above 93.20
Below 91.75
Bias – Bearish
Price is balanced until it moves above the liquidity @ 93.20, which does not seem likely this week.
Looking for price to continue lower towards prior low @ 91.75.
@ 92.50 we are at the high side of a weekly price imbalance. Keep an eye on this area.
Bias – Bullish
Support at 1.1800 – 1.1815 … weak because it was already hit. A break below this could see a quick move to 1.1700
I’m still focused on the liquidity above and looking for price to move there.
H1
Resistance @1.1930 & 1.970
Support @1.1875-1.7880
Yesterday was a perfect example why I do not trade Thanksgiving week.
DXY – Day was slightly bullish. Basically, a spinning top, again, if you are a candle trader.
Price did drop into the imbalance area and almost close it in completely before shooting higher. Price has now returned to its consolidation mean over the last few days.
EURUSD – Bearish on the day but moving still moving sideways.
Price dropped to our 1.1800 support are and then rejected moving higher.
GBPUSD – Bullish day … no surprise since we still the GBP relatively stronger to the EUR and the DXY and EURUSD were almost flat on the day.
We did see the 1.3260 support area called out two days earlier and hold price and push it higher.
NOTE: I do not trade the week of Thanksgiving. I will provide forecasts through Wednesday, but they will be very general. More detailed ones will resume next week.
DXY D1
Liquidity
Above 93.20
Below 91.75
Bias – Bearish
Price is balanced until it moves above the liquidity @ 93.20, which does not seem likely this week.
Looking for price to continue lower towards yesterday’s low @ 92.02 and prior low @ 91.75.
Bias – Bullish
Support at 1.1800 … very weak as institutional orders are very few if not already gone. A break below this could see a quick move to 1.1700
I am still focused on the liquidity above and looking for price to move there.
DXY – Bearish day as forecasted. We did see price rebalance and find support @ 92.12, close to the forecasted Support.
EURUSD – Bullish day closing near the high. Price did drop through support @ 92.50 by an additional 10 pips then shot back higher. Today price has already moved above 1.1920 taking the liquidity.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. We saw price reach into our support area @ 1.3300 before moving a bit higher.
EDIT note: corrected date of recap from 2020/11/25 to 2020/11/24
NOTE: I do not trade the week of Thanksgiving. I will provide forecasts through Wednesday, but they will be very general. More detailed ones will resume next week.
DXY D1
Liquidity
Above 93.20
Below 91.75
Bias – Neutral
Price has already dropped to 91.95 and is now moving higher.
Still looking for price to continue lower towards the liquidity @ 91.75. Unemployment at 08:30 could create a big fluctuation in price. Keep an eye on the liquidity.
Bias – Neutral
Because liquidity was already hit +10 pips, price may not return there today.
Resistance 1.1940
Support @ 1.1875
H1
Resistance @1.1900
Support @1.1875 … could we see price hit this level and then move higher back into liquidity???
Based on current price, H1 is suggesting a bearish close today. But still concerned about unemployment news.
Liquidity
Above 1.3480 … also have minor liquidity above 1.3400 based on this week’s high.
Below 1.3105
Bias – Neutral
Resistance @ 1.3430
Support @ 1.3280-1.3300
H1
Resistance @ 1.3345
Not much support prior to yesterdays low at 1.3293 and Monday’s low at 1.3264. If I were trading this week, I might be looking for price to hit the H1 resistance area and target both prior daily lows for the week.
DXY – Bearish day. Price ran up to 92.26, near the resistance area, and then drop to create the low of the day at 91.93.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Price hit the liquidity area then dropped and revisited the area again, although not taking out the high. However, today, price has already moved higher into this area taking our yesterday’s high. Price reached the forecasted resistance area @ 1.1940 and has dropped from there today.
GBPUSD – Bullish day closing near the high. Price dropped to our D1 support area @ 1.3300 then rebounded to make the high of the day. D overrides H! On the H1, there was resistance @ 1.3345 which could have pushed price to weekly lows EXCEPT for the D1 support at 1.3300.
So far, the weekly high made on Monday is acting as resistance. Looking at this consolidation area for a potential breakout up to the forecasted liquidity. With US Thanksgiving holiday, hopefully this consolidation will hold until next week.
Liquidity
Above 1.3480 … also have minor liquidity above 1.3400 based on this week’s high.
Below 1.3105
Bias – Bullish
Resistance @ 1.3430 (why? Hmm )
Support @ 1.3270
H1
Resistance @ 1.3345
Support @ 1.3350-1.3360 Price is currently in this area. Looking for a reversal to set a new high for the day … maybe 1.3415-1.3420???
What a fantastic day! DXY and EURUSD executed almost perfectly. GBPUSD ended the day where expected but took a big step in the wrong direction first.
DXY – Bearish day. Hit the 91.85 H1 resistance area and then dropped like a rock to take out prior days low and then some. As forecasted.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Hit the H1 support area of 1.1960 and then shot up taking out prior days high and a lot more. Also as forecasted. I pulled about 40 pips out of this move.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. Price retraced all the way down to the Weekly open around 1.3315 and then bounced to take out Monday’s high right into the resistance area of 1.3430 + a few pips. Then consolidated and dropped this morning. I forecasted support at 1.3350. Fortunately did not see a trade here that met my rules. So support was off but otherwise, the forecast was pretty close.
Liquidity
Above 93.20
Below 89.00 (91.75 liquidity was taken yesterday)
Price is currently in a highly fluid area and could see quick/continued movement to downside
Bias – Neutral … Price is Bullish today. However, from the time of the posting, I am neutral to bearish. See note below.
Resistance @ 91.50 and 91.80
Support 90.30
H1
Resistance @91.60-91.65
Support was @91.20
Could see price move up to D1 resistance @91.50 and to H1 @ 91.60. Then watch price from there. I am expecting continued downward movement. Targeting H1 support or optimistically the low of the day.
EURUSD EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … Long term weak EUR relative to GBP … near term, EUR is stronger
D1
Liquidity
Above 1.2400
Below 1.1800
Bias – Bearish
Resistance 1.2190-1.2200
Support 1.2010 and 1.1875
H1
Resistance @1.2065 … already hit today and moved lower. 1.2080 would be next area.
Support @1.1995-1.2000
Definitely looks like a corrective move even though I’m neutral on the DXY. Ideally, would like price to retrace to H1 support and then move higher.
DXY – Bearish day. Hit the 91.50 resistance and did indeed move lower to take out the low of the day and form a new weekly low.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Did not follow my plan and disregarded DXY forecast. If I forecast DXY as bearish then I should have been bullish on the EUR but focused too much on that 1.2000 level.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Same forecast issue as EUR. Although the day was indeed bearish, after I posted my forecast, the GBP was bullish. Reversed just short of the D1 support @1.3270 then closed at the midpoint of the daily range.
Liquidity
Above 93.20
Below 89.00 (91.75 liquidity was taken yesterday)
Price is currently in a highly fluid area and could see quick/continued movement to downside.
Bias – Bearish
Resistance 92.10
Support 90.30
H1
Resistance 91.00 & 91.15
Support D1 90.30
Would like to see price retrace to 90.95-91.00 then move lower to take out todays current low.
EURUSD EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … Long term weak EUR relative to GBP … near term, EUR is stronger
D1
Liquidity
Above 1.2400
Below 1.800
Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.2190-1.2200
Support 1.2005 & 1.1875
H1
Resistance 1.2145-1.2160
Support 1.2080
A retrace back to H1 support would likely lead to a bearish day but would like to see this happen and then pop back to new high. Expecting today to stay fairly consolidated ahead of NFP Friday. So could see this playout tomorrow. Although I do not trade NFP days.
GBPUSD EURGBP - Note significant liquidity below 0.8860 … Long term weak EUR relative to GBP … near term, GBP is weaker
D1
Liquidity
Above 1.3480
Below 1.3285
Bias – Bullish
Resistance 1.3760
Support 1.3270
H1
Resistance 1.3442 (Weekly high) … in prep for tomorrows run
Support 1.3410 & 1.3375
Still has not taken out Sept 1st high even though EURUSD took it out and DXY took out the low. Looking for consolidation today, just like EURUSD, ahead of NFP and then potentially pop tomorrow.
DXY – Bearish day. Hit the 90.94 resistance and did indeed move lower to take out the low of the day and form a new weekly low. Same move as the day before.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Price did not quite make it back to the H1 support area I was anticipating and not as consolidated as I expected, but it did move to a new on the day.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. Price finally took out the Sept 1st high. Price took the liquidity at 1.3480 as expected, just a day earlier.
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