DXY – Bullish day. Price moved nicely based on the forecast. It dropped just a little past the NYMO and then shot up, almost reaching the Hourly OB at 90.81 before dropping again. Price found support again at the NYMO and then moved up to that Hourly OB and 2-day prior low this morning.
EURUSD – Bearish day. Same movement on the EURUSD. Price found resistance at the NYMO and dropped, not quite reaching the 2-day prior high, moved back to the NYMO and then hit the 2-day prior high this morning. If you traded this, you netted at least 30 pips, but it took a long time to get there.
GBPUSD – Consolidation. As expected, the GBPUSD consolidated yesterday. It basically hung around the NYMO and finally broke down in this morning’s early trading.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-Day Prior Low 90.81 … next OB 91.11
Bullish – Imbalance High 90.36
Bias – Bullish … but could consolidate or move down from forecast posting.
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 90.83 (Daily) … next OB 91.11 (Daily)
Bullish – NYMO 90.65 … next Imbalance High 90.36 (Daily)
Daily … Really wanted to see the Dollar drop down to the Imbalance area below 90.36 this week. That would have been very bullish going into next week, but it is already moving higher. Price is currently sitting near the Daily OB of 90.81. Will have to watch to see if this pushes price back down and gives way and allows price to move higher. With that imbalance not reached prior to returning to the level, I am not sure what price will do.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2151
Bullish – OB 1.2093 … next OB 1.2037
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.2126 & OB … OB 1.2151 (hit this morning)
Bullish – Weekly Open 1.2097 & 2-Day Prior High 1.2093 … next OB 1.2037 (Daily)
Daily … Price hit the Daily OB at 1.2151 last night and is making a nice move away. It has already reached into the opposing Daily OB at 1.2093. Will watch to see if price wants to move through this OB. No trading today. But if I were looking for something, I would want to see a retrace back up to the MB at 1.2109 and then a move lower to for a new low for the day.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 1.4141
Bullish – OB 1.3687
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – MB 1.3934 … next NYMO 1.3947
Bullish – OB 1.3889 … Weekly Open 1.3876
Daily … Already a big move to the downside in early trading. Could there be more? A retrace up to the Hourly MB at 1.3934 and then targeting the Hourly OB at 1.3889 is what I will be looking for price to today during the New York session.
DXY – Bullish day. Price moved significantly higher on Friday, making the high of the week and then consolidating at the Daily FVG. No retrace prior to the move up, so unfortunately, no trade entry opportunities.
EURUSD – Bearish day. Price did indeed move lower on the EURUSD. Not only did it reach the target to make the low of the day, but it also made the low of the week with a large expansion to the downside. Did not get the retrace back up to the Hourly Mitigation Block at 1.2109 before the move, which means no trade entry opportunities.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. We also saw a large expansion to the downside on the GBPUSD on Friday. Price blew right through the Hourly OB at 1.3889 and also made the low of the week. Same as with the EURUSD, no retrace up to present entry opportunities prior to the move.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 91.49
Bullish – OB 90.90 … next Imbalance High 90.36
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 91.25 … next NYMO 91.30
Bullish – OB 90.90 (Daily) … next Imbalance High 90.36
Weekly … Seasonality suggests the Dollar should rebound and move higher in early May followed by consolidation through June. April seasonality played out perfectly to the downside. Although seasonality is important it is not the only factor to consider. As of right now, I am actually expecting the Dollar to be bearish in the near term. There is a big draw in the Daily Imbalance below 90.36. This area could act as strong support if price reaches down there again this month and potentially this week. Below this imbalance is a large draw in liquidity below 89.70. Right now, there are mover factors drawing price down than up.
Daily … Looking for the dollar to reach down to the Daily OB at 90.90. First, will need a retrace up to the either the Weekly Open at 91.25 or NYMO open at 91.30. Note that there is also an Hourly Breaker at 90.20, but not drawn on the chart. Lots of resistance above price on the Dollar right now.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2151
Bullish – FVG High 1.2020 … next OB 1.1952 (Weekly)
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – ON 1.2080 … next MB 1.2109
Bullish – NYMO 1.2023 & Weekly Open 1.2020
Weekly … The expectation is that the EURUSD is bearish early in May with consolidation afterward through June. But just like on the Dollar, that does not look like what price wants to do early on this month yet. Right now I am looking for price to reach for the liquidity above 1.2150 and potentially above 1.2240 long term. There is a nice Daily OB at 1.1952 that price could potentially retrace down to before ultimately moving higher.
Daily … Looking for price to move higher today. As usual, need a retrace lower towards the NYMO and Weekly Open at 1.2020 first. Will be targeting the Daily FVG at 1.2120, but note that price will have some resistance at the 1.2080 and 1.2109 levels.
Weekly … The GBPUSD has been in consolidation for about two months now. Seasonality shows that price should be bearish this month. Until we have signs of where this pair wants to go, no definitive monthly forecast. The EURGBP has also moved sideways for a few weeks too. This is why the EURUSD is mirroring the Dollar while the GBPUSD is off in its own world lately. Ultimately long term, I am still looking for the GBPUSD to move higher towards the Monthly Rejection Block above 1.4100, where a large liquidity draw also lies.
Daily … Looking for the GBPUSD to move higher today. Targeting the strong resistance area at 1.3935 which has the 2-Day Prior Low and Hourly Mitigation Block. First looking for a retrace down to at least the Hourly Breaker at 1.3834. Just below here are the NYMO and Weekly Open support levels.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Price did not move as far as I was looking for but still saw nice expansion to the upside. For an aggressive trader, there was an entry opportunity which would have netted about 35 pips on a risk of 20 pips. Not in my rules though so no trade.
GBPUSD – BULLISH day. Beautiful expansion to the upside. I was so watching this chart for an opportunity to get in, but never got it. Grrr … sometimes I do not like my trading rules. We say almost a 100 pip expansion right to the targeted 2-Day Low and Hourly Mitigation Block at 1.3933 to make the high of the day.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 91.49
Bullish – OB 90.90 … next Imbalance High 90.36
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – MB 91.54 … next MB 92.01
Bullish – Weekly Open 91.25 … next NYMO 91.30
Weekly … Seasonality suggests the Dollar should rebound and move higher in early May followed by consolidation through June. April seasonality played out perfectly to the downside. Although seasonality is important it is not the only factor to consider. As of right now, I am actually expecting the Dollar to be bearish in the near term. There is a big draw in the Daily Imbalance below 90.36. This area could act as strong support if price reaches down there again this month and potentially this week. Below this imbalance is a large draw in liquidity below 89.70. Right now, there are mover factors drawing price down than up.
Daily … Price has already moved up into both the Daily and Weekly FVG/SIBI, approaching the Hourly Mitigation Block at 91.54. Looking for price to retrace down preferably to the NYMO at 91.30, but may consider the Weekly Open at 91.25 if the RR is correct. Looking for price to take out yesterdays high and move toward the Daily FVG above 91.80.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2151
Bullish – OB 1.1952 (Weekly)
Bias – Bearish to consolidated
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 1.2020 … next NYMO 1.2039
Bullish – OB 1.1982 … next OB 1.1952 (Weekly)
Weekly … The expectation is that the EURUSD is bearish early in May with consolidation afterward through June. But just like on the Dollar, that does not look like what price wants to do early on this month yet. Right now I am looking for price to reach for the liquidity above 1.2150 and potentially above 1.2240 long term. There is a nice Daily OB at 1.1952 that price could potentially retrace down to before ultimately moving higher.
Daily … We have already seen a big move to the downside today. Price dropped into the Weekly BISI and almost filled it completely. This means that price could potentially start moving higher. With the Dollar bullish, I am looking for the EURUSD to either continue expanding down to the Weekly OB at 1.1952 or consolidate in the Weekly BISI.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-Day Prior low 1.3932 … next FVG High 1.4141
Bullish – OB 1.3687
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3879 … next MB 1.3934
Bullish – Brkr 1.3834 … next Weekly Open 1.3818
Weekly … The GBPUSD has been in consolidation for about two months now. Seasonality shows that price should be bearish this month. Until we have signs of where this pair wants to go, no definitive monthly forecast. The EURGBP has also moved sideways for a few weeks too. This is why the EURUSD is mirroring the Dollar while the GBPUSD is off in its own world lately. Ultimately long term, I am still looking for the GBPUSD to move higher towards the Monthly Rejection Block above 1.4100, where a large liquidity draw also lies.
Daily … Price has been moving sideways for the last few hours, allowing the EURUSD to expand to the downside. Now that the EURUSD might have found a support area, we could see the GBPUSD take a turn at moving down if the Dollar moves higher as expected. If price expands down, I will be targeting the Hourly OB at 1.3766, yes breaking through both the Hourly Breaker and Weekly Open.
DXY – Bullish day. Price did retrace back down to the NYMO and did take out yesterdays high. However, it did not expand any higher and went into consolidation for the rest of the day and so far today too.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. With the EURUSD in consolidation, the expectation was that the GBPUSD would move lower. However the Dollar decided to consolidate also, which kept the GBPUSD from moving lower and kept it too in consolidation.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 91.49
Bullish – OB 90.90 … next Imbalance High 90.36
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – MB 91.54 … next MB 92.01
Bullish – OB 91.30 … next Weekly Open 91.25 … next NYMO 91.20
Weekly … Seasonality suggests the Dollar should rebound and move higher in early May followed by consolidation through June. April seasonality played out perfectly to the downside. Although seasonality is important it is not the only factor to consider. As of right now, I am actually expecting the Dollar to be bearish in the near term. There is a big draw in the Daily Imbalance below 90.36. This area could act as strong support if price reaches down there again this month and potentially this week. Below this imbalance is a large draw in liquidity below 89.70. Right now, there are more factors drawing price down than up.
Daily … Price tried to move up into the liquidity above 91.40 but was rejected. I am still looking for it to move up there again today. There is a series of three levels that will provide support for price within a 10-cent range … Hourly OB, Weekly Open, and NYMO. There is a Daily OB at 91.63 that I will be targeting but it is not drawn on the chart as I do not expect to be strong resistance. Looking ultimately for price to move to the Daily FVG above 91.80, but that is a long way of given the recent daily ranges and that Friday is NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) which may keep price consolidated until then.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2151
Bullish – OB 1.1952 (Weekly)
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 1.2020 … next NYMO 1.2024
Bullish – OB 1.1982 … next OB 1.1952 (Weekly)
Weekly … The expectation is that the EURUSD is bearish early in May with consolidation afterward through June. But just like on the Dollar, that does not look like what price wants to do early on this month yet. Right now I am looking for price to reach for the liquidity above 1.2150 and potentially above 1.2240 long term. There is a nice Daily OB at 1.1952 that price could potentially retrace down to before ultimately moving higher.
Daily … Price has already made a 30 pip move to the downside in early trading. This is about half the recent ADR. I am looking for a retrace up to at least 1.2010 and high as the NYMO at 1.2024 then an expansion to the downside again, forming a new low and targeting the Weekly OB at 1.1952 … which would be about 60 pips ADR.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-Day Prior low 1.3932 … next FVG High 1.4141
Bullish – OB 1.3687
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3911 … next MB 1.3934
Bullish – Brkr 1.3834 … next Weekly Open 1.3818
Weekly … The GBPUSD has been in consolidation for about two months now. Seasonality shows that price should be bearish this month. Until we have signs of where this pair wants to go, no definitive monthly forecast. The EURGBP has also moved sideways for a few weeks too. This is why the EURUSD is mirroring the Dollar while the GBPUSD is off in its own world lately. Ultimately long term, I am still looking for the GBPUSD to move higher towards the Monthly Rejection Block above 1.4000, where a large liquidity draw also lies.
Daily … Price is still in consolidation with the NYMO at 1.3911 keeping price from moving higher. I will be looking for the GBPUSD to make a break lower today if it can get of this consolidation range. The ultimate target is to move towards the Daily Rejection Block at 1.3687. No I am not looking for a 300 pip move today. This is only directional. But … maybe NFP??? Keep an eye on the Weekly Open at 1.3818 as it as acted as decent support this week.
EURUSD – Bearish day. Price retraced right back up to the Weekly Open, where I had a sell order placed at 1.2020. The wick hit the level exactly and then dropped 30 pips. Which means I did not get my entry. After the drop, price consolidated for the rest of the day.
Key Levels
Bearish – FVG High 91.49
Bullish – OB 90.90 … next Imbalance High 90.36
Bias – Bearish to consolidation
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 91.25 (Also Weekly Open) … next NYMO 91.34
Bullish – OB 90.90 (Daily)
Daily … Price almost reached the Daily FVG high yesterday and has steadily moved lower ever since. Looks like price wants to reach for the Daily OB at 90.90. This level was hit once 3 days ago. So it may not hold up if price reaches this level again. We could see price move back up to consolidation as we await NFP Friday. I will watch to see if we can a retrace up to a resistance area, but not expecting much today.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2151
Bullish – OB 1.1952 (Weekly)
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2053 … next OB 1.2080
Bullish – Weekly Open 1.2020 … next NYMO 1.1999
Daily … Price moved up to the Hourly OB at 1.2053 during the London session and has found resistance. With the expansion higher, I will be looking for price to pull back to the at least the Weekly Open and then possibly moving higher. If higher, I will be targeting the Daily FVG above 1.2080. Price could also consolidate today in anticipation of NFP Friday.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-Day Prior low 1.3932 … next FVG High 1.4141
Bullish – OB 1.3687
Bias – Bullish to consolidated
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.3911 … next MB 1.3934
Bullish – Brkr 1.3834 … next Weekly Open 1.3818
Daily … On the GBPUSD, price has also found resistance at an Hourly Mitigation Block of 1.3934. But the is basically the upper range of consolidation that the price has been contained in this week. At some point, price will reach for the liquidity above 1.4000. NFP could be that day. No trading on this pair today. Not until there’s clarity in price movement.
having been looking at Seasonality data yes the Dollar should rebound and move higher in early May followed by consolidation through June. but as we know even in consolidating the other pairs can move well
Absolutely correct. However, note that EURUSD moves opposite in May … Bearish early on and then consolidats. BUT the GBPUSD is typically bearish the entire month.
DXY – Bearish day. Price did reach for the Daily OB at 90.90 and we initially saw a bounce off that exact level only to return to it a few hours later. Price then consolidated at this level until the London session today where there was a decent drop.
EURUSD – Bullish day. No pullback in price again. Something we have seen lately which prevents me from entering trades. Price initially paused at the Hourly OB at 1.1053 then moved higher and consolidated until the London session today, where price expanded up into the Daily FVG.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Although price was overall bearish for the day, it was bullish from where I posted the forecasted yesterday. Regardless, price is still in a consolidation range and not presenting opportunities to trade.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-Week Prior Low 90.42 … next MB 90.65
Bullish – OB 89.95
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 90.18 … next NYMO 90.28
Bullish – OB 89.95 (Daily)
Weekly … Big bearish week last week, mainly coming in on Friday after the NFP news. Exactly why I do not trade that day. Going into this week, I am looking for the Dollar to continue dropping. Still targeting the Weekly and Monthly Rejection blocks at the 89.00 level. This could provide strong support; however, the level has been previously tested and there is a large liquidity pool below 89.00. This pool could pull price even lower.
Daily … On Friday, price dropped right into the Daily Imbalance and has consolidated in this area since then. I am looking at the Weekly Open and NYMO to provide resistance and keep price lower on the day. Targeting the Daily OB at 89.95 and the liquidity below 89.70.
Key Levels
Bearish – RB 1.2325
Bullish – MB 1.2126 … next OB 1.2097 (Weekly)
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2209 … next RB 1.2325 (Daily)
Bullish – Weekly Open 1.2152 … next NYMO 1.2155 … next MB 1.2126 (Daily)
Weekly … With my expectation for the Dollar to drop, I will be looking for the EURUSD to move higher. A retrace down to the Weekly OB at 1.2097 is possible before the move higher, but not necessary. Still targeting the liquidity above 1.2240 and the Rejection block at 1.2415.
Daily … Price has essentially been in consolidation so far today. I am looking for the Weekly Open and NYMO to act as support and keep price higher today. Initial target will be the Hourly OB at 1.2209 and next would be 1.2250.
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.3945
Bullish – RB 1.4189 (Monthly) … next RB 1.4263 (Weekly)
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – MB 1.4098 … next RB 1.4189 (Monthly)
Bullish – OB 1.4032 … next NYMO 1.4020
Weekly … We could be seeing the GBPUSD making a break to move higher and reach for the Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks above 1.4200. Ultimately, long term could reach for 1.4375.
Daily … Big move higher already today. We have broken higher out of the sideways movement we have been in for a month. Price has already moved 120 pips today, ran into an Hourly OB at 1.4098 and has paused. Not sure that we can get much higher. A retrace back down to the Hourly OB at 1.4032 is where I would consider an entry point, however, that is a long way from where price currently is. Not expecting that much fluctuation today. Ultimately targeting the Weekly RB at 1.4189.
DXY – Bullish day. The Dollar basically moved sideways for the day, staying below the NYMO at 90.65 as expected. However, the Daily Imbalance also kept price from dropping on the day.
EURUSD – Bearish day. Price only became bearish at the end of day. For the most part, the NYMO at 1.2155 acted as support right up until the end of the day, when it dropped to the Daily Mitigation Block at 1.2126.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. 180 pip move yesterday on the breakout from the 2-month consolidation. Price almost reach the Monthly Rejection Block at 1.4189 which is actually my weekly target. Once price reached its high for the day, it moved into consolidation.
Key Levels
Bearish – 2-Week Prior Low 90.42 … next MB 90.55
Bullish – OB 89.95
Bias – Bearish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 90.18 … next NYMO 90.26
Bullish – OB 89.95 (Daily)
Weekly … Big bearish week last week, mainly coming in on Friday after the NFP news. Exactly why I do not trade that day. Going into this week, I am looking for the Dollar to continue dropping. Still targeting the Weekly and Monthly Rejection blocks at the 89.00 level. This could provide strong support; however, the level has been previously tested and there is a large liquidity pool below 89.00. This pool could pull price even lower.
Daily … I am expecting the Dollar to stay below the NYMO and Weekly Open prices today. Will it be able to break lower out of yesterdays consolidation? No big news today, so it is very possible price will stay in this consolidated range. If price does move lower, it might find some support at the Daily OB at 89.95.
Key Levels
Bearish – RB 1.2325
Bullish – MB 1.2126 … next OB 1.2097 (Weekly)
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2209 … next RB 1.2325 (Daily)
Bullish – NYMO 1.2140 … next MB 1.2126 (Daily)
Weekly … With my expectation for the Dollar to drop, I will be looking for the EURUSD to move higher. A retrace down to the Weekly OB at 1.2097 is possible before the move higher, but not necessary. Still targeting the liquidity above 1.2240 and the Rejection block at 1.2415.
Daily … Price reached down late last night / early this morning and has since started moving higher. I will be looking for price to breakout above yesterdays high and move at least to the Hourly OB at 1.2209. Looking for a retrace down to the NYMO at 1.2140 & Hourly OB at 1.2142 before the move up.
Key Levels
Bearish – RB 1.4189 (Monthly) … next RB 1.4263 (Weekly)
Bullish – Brkr 1.3932 … next OB 1.3945
Bias – Bullish
H1
Key Levels
Bearish – RB 1.4189 (Monthly) … next RB 1.4263 (Weekly)
Bullish – NYMO 1.4120 … next ON 1.4032
Weekly … We could be seeing the GBPUSD making a break to move higher and reach for the Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks above 1.4200. Ultimately, long term could reach for 1.4375.
Daily … Price has consolidated so far today. Not surprising given the 180 pip move yesterday. With no news today, price could stay in consolidation around the NYMO at 1.4120. Ideally though, I will be looking for price to move up again today and reach for the Monthly Rejection Block at 1.4189. The NYMO up is a decent support level, but based on my rules, I need it to come down a bit below that level. On the M15 there are a couple potential entry points that I will be watching.
The EURUSD climbed to its multi-month peak of 1.2160 following the poor U.S. jobs data.
The GBPUSD pair spent the week fluctuating around 1.391 before rocketing up on Friday above the 1.400. Despite failing to stay at that level, the last time we saw the price in this position was in March 2018.
The USDJPY pair dropped, undermined by the shocking labour market data from the USA. The price stopped at the crucial level of 108.300 before the rebounding.
