2021/05/21 Recap
DXY – Bullish day. Price could not move into the liquidity area that I was expecting. Instead, it shot up and found resistance near the Daily OB at 90.19.
EURUSD – Bearish day. I missed a market structure key in my forecast on Friday. On the hourly, the Dollar made a new low at the time of posting, however, the EURUSD did NOT make a new high. This implies weakness on the EURUSD and likely to drop. And the run below on the Dollar was only a stop run which was followed by a huge up move.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. While the GBPUSD did make a new market structure high, that high was at the Weekly Rejection Block I was targeting as a Weekly goal. Once it reached that level, the bottom fell out and price dropped almost 100 pips.
2021/05/24
DXY
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish –NYMO 90.02 & Weekly Open 90.03 … next OB 90.19
Bullish – OB 89.52 … next RB 89.10 (Monthly)
Weekly … Will be looking for the Dollar to continue its move lower this week. Still targeting the Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks at 89.00.
Daily … With the bearish expectation on the week, I am looking for the Dollar to start that move down today. Expecting the NYMO and Weekly Open at 90.03 to act as resistance and push price towards the Hourly OB at 89.52.
EURUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.2232 … next OB 1.2307
Bullish – OB 1.2203 … next MB 1.2163 (Daily)
Weekly … With the Dollar expected to move lower, I am looking for the EURUSD move higher. The Weekly and Monthly Rejection Block are targets and drawing price higher. Market structure between the Dollar and EURUSD is mirroring each other. Initial target is the prior high at 1.2350.
Daily … That prior high at 1.2243 has proved to be stronger resistance than expected. We should be able to push through it this week and take the liquidity sitting just above it. Price has reached an Hourly OB at 1.2217. Price has paused here momentarily but I expect it to move higher and reach for the old high.
GBPUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 1.4149 … next NYMO 1.4152
Bullish – BISI High 1.4077 (Weekly) … next Brkr 1.3993 (Daily)
Weekly … Price reached up to the Weekly Rejection Block at 1.4263 and has moved lower since then. This was the same high reached back in February. I am expecting price to either consolidate at this level this week or push through. Will have to keep an eye on the EURGBP to see how price is moving over there. Will look for EURGBP weakness for that ultimate GBPUSD push higher. No target this week. Need to watch price to see where it wants to go.
Daily … The EURGBP is at a Daily Bearish OB after a big move up today. We will watch to see if this level can hold and push the EURGBP lower. If it does, then I expect the GBPUSD to recover and move higher today. If not, price will consolidate or move lower. Given that anything can happen, no trading until there is clarity.
2021/05/024 Recap
DXY – Bearish day. Did not happen until early this morning’s trading, but price did move down into the liquidity below 89.70 and found support at the Hourly OB of 89.52.
EURUSD – Bullish day. That Hourly OB at 1.2217 acted as strong resistance and kept the EURUSD in consolidation for the whole day. But this morning we say the breakout above and up through the Daily Old High at 1.2248 as expected … just a little late.
GBPUSD – Flat day. As expected, price moved back up to the NYMO and consolidated for the day. Hence, no trading this pair.
2021/05/25
DXY
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish –OB 89.74 … Next NYMO 89.76
Bullish – OB 89.52 … next RB 89.10 (Monthly)
Weekly … Will be looking for the Dollar to continue its move lower this week. Still targeting the Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks at 89.00.
Daily … Price to the liquidity below 89.70 and is now moving higher. I expect price to find resistance around the Bearish Hourly OB at 89.74 and NYMO at 89.76. I do not expect the Bullish Hourly OB at 89.52 to provide support on the return down to that area. It’s a bit far today with little news, but will look for price to reach towards the top of the Daily FVG at 89.20.
EURUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2229 … next NYMO 1.2227
Bullish – Weekly Open 1.2182 … next MB 1.2163 (Daily)
Weekly … With the Dollar expected to move lower, I am looking for the EURUSD move higher. The Weekly and Monthly Rejection Block are targets and drawing price higher. Market structure between the Dollar and EURUSD is mirroring each other. Initial target is the prior high at 1.2350.
Daily … The EURSUD also took out liquidity today and moved above recent highs and above that old Daily high. Price is now retracing but I do expect a continuation to the upside. Will be looking for a retrace down to the Hourly OB at 1.2229 and NYMO at 1.2227 then target the Hourly OB at 1.2307.
GBPUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.4177 … next NYMO 1.4152
Bullish – Weekly Open 1.4149 … next BISI High 1.4077 (Weekly)
Weekly … Price reached up to the Weekly Rejection Block at 1.4263 and has moved lower since then. This was the same high reached back in February. I am expecting price to either consolidate at this level this week or push through. Will have to keep an eye on the EURGBP to see how price is moving over there. Will look for EURGBP weakness for that ultimate GBPUSD push higher. No target this week. Need to watch price to see where it wants to go.
Daily … Price moved up sharply in early trading and has dropped just as much. This is still a pair I will not trade until we have clarity of direction. Normally I would expect price to drop after hitting very strong resistance at the Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks. However, the Dollar weakness is causing the GBPUSD to move erratically. Price has very little confluence with the Dollar. IF the Dollar keeps dropping, I will look for the GBPUSD to consolidate around the Rejection Block area and eventually have an explosive move higher. This is more of a long term view than a daily view. But today I have no opinion on price. Staying clear.
2021/05/25 Recap
DXY – Bearish day. Although it was a bearish day, price was bullish during the NY Session while I was expecting it to continue moving lower. Price moved up past the NYMO and found resistance at an Hourly OB of 89.83 and then returned lower.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Price did retrace down to the Hourly OB at 1.2229 and the NYMO, where it found support and began moving higher but ended up consolidating once price got close to the high of the day. I did not enter a trade even though price hit the level I was looking for. Time is very important to me and price did not reach my entry point until noon, which is way too late to enter based on my trade plan.
GBPUSD – Flat day. As expected, price was flat on the day. However, there was a large move down during the NY Session. Technically, this was a tradable move as the high of the day reached into an Hourly OB at the 1.4210 level, but as I mentioned in my forecast, no way I am trading this pair until there is more clarity on direction.
2021/05/26
DXY
D1
-
Liquidity
Above 91.00
Below 89.20
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 90.19 … next Price Imbalance Low 90.36
Bullish – RB 89.10 (Monthly) … next RB 89.00 (Weekly)
-
Bias – Flat to slightly bullish
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 90.03 … next OB 90.19 (Daily)
Bullish – NYMO 89.62 … next OB 89.52
Weekly … Will be looking for the Dollar to continue its move lower this week. Still targeting the Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks at 89.00.
Daily … Price looks like it wants to retrace a bit today. I will be looking for either consolidation or a small move higher. If moving higher, will expect a retrace down to the NYMO at 89.62 first and then target the Weekly Open at 90.03. Other than Crude Oil news, it will be a quiet day. However, given the US’s current gas situation, this news could move price more than it normally would.
EURUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.2258 … next OB 1.2307
Bullish – Weekly Open 1.2182 … next MB 1.2163 (Daily)
Weekly … With the Dollar expected to move lower, I am looking for the EURUSD move higher. The Weekly and Monthly Rejection Block are targets and drawing price higher. Market structure between the Dollar and EURUSD is mirroring each other. Initial target is the prior high at 1.2350.
Daily … The EURUSD is sitting at a Bearish OB right now. Given the Dollars potential for a small move higher today and that the EURGBP is moving lower, we could see the EURUSD move lower. I am not trading today as I am only looking for Bullish moves this week. But we could see the EURUSD try to reach for the Weekly Open at 1.2182. A retrace up to the NYMO is not necessary given that it is consolidating at an OB now.
GBPUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – RB 1.4189 (Monthly) … next RB 1.4236 (Weekly)
Bullish – NYMO 1.4162 … next Weekly Open 1.4149
Weekly … Price reached up to the Weekly Rejection Block at 1.4263 and has moved lower since then. This was the same high reached back in February. I am expecting price to either consolidate at this level this week or push through. Will have to keep an eye on the EURGBP to see how price is moving over there. Will look for EURGBP weakness for that ultimate GBPUSD push higher. No target this week. Need to watch price to see where it wants to go.
Daily … With the EURGBP moving lower and the Dollar potentially consolidating, the GBPUSD could make a move higher today. If it does, I would look for support around the NYMO at 1.4162 or ideally the Weekly Open at 1.4149 and then target at least the Monthly Rejection block at 1.4189 and possibly yesterdays high at 1.4210. I am still not trading this pair yet.
2021/05/26 Recap
DXY – Bullish day. We got that retrace up that I was potentially looking for. Did not get the retracement down to the NYMO, but there was an OB on the M15 that provide support. Price did reach the Weekly Open at 90.03 as targeted.
EURUSD – Bearish day. As forecast, the Hourly OB at 1.2244 that held price in consolidation for a few hours and then dropped. If you traded this, you could have taken the break lower as the entry or for me, that retrace back up almost to the OB would have been perfect. And the Weekly Open target of 1.2182 made the low of the day. As mentioned in the forecast though, no trade for me as I am only looking for bullish entries this week.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Expected a move higher, but as mentioned, no trading this pair. Price actually found resistance at an Hourly OB (not drawn) at 1.41776 and then moved lower. Price has basically consolidated this week so far.
2021/05/27
DXY
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 89.98 … next NYMO 90.05
Bullish – OB 89.52
Daily … Price already made a move higher this morning and found resistance at the Daily OB of 90.19, which has acted as strong resistance this week and last week. I am now looking for price to resume movement to the downside. Will be looking for a retrace up to the Hourly OB at 89.98 and then expand lower towards the Hourly OB at 89.52.
EURUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2220 … next OB 1.2244
Bullish – NYMO 1.2194 … next Weekly Open 1.2182
Daily … Price moved up and found resistance at the 2-day prior low of 1.2212 and has started moving down. With the Dollar moving lower, I am looking for the EURUSD to continue to the upside. Will be looking for a retrace down to the NYMO at 1.2194 and then target the higher Hourly OB at 1.2244 … but keep an eye on the OB at 1.2220.
GBPUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – RB 1.4189 (Monthly) … next RB 1.4236 (Weekly)
Bullish – Weekly Open 1.4149 … next OB 1.4121
Daily … Big move up on the GBPUSD right now. Expecting this higher move to continue. Again, no trading on this pair. But would be looking for a retrace down the Weekly Open at 1.4149 to consider a potential.
2021/05/31
DXY
D1
-
Liquidity
Above 90.40
Below 89.50
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 90.19 … next Price Imbalance Low 90.36
Bullish – RB 89.10 (Monthly) … next RB 89.00 (Weekly)
-
Bias – Flat to slightly bullish
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 90.19 … next D1 Imbalance Low 90.35
Bullish – Weekly Open 90.05 … next NYMO 90.01
Weekly … I will be looking for the Dollar to continue moving to the downside in June. Seasonality suggests overall consolidation for the month with a drop early in the month then recovering. Based on the chart, there is still a huge draw at the 89.00 level. I will be looking for price to move to at least this level and possible even 88.25, which is a prior low from 2018.
Daily … Today is a holiday in the US so volume will be softer than usual. No trading today for me. Price could make an unexpected move given most smart money will be on the sidelines. Expecting consolidation today or a slight move higher. The Daily OB at 90.19 held strong all last week along with the Daily Imbalance above. Those will be tough levels for the Dollar to move higher through.
EURUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 1.2192 … next NYMO 1.2199
Bullish – MB 1.2148 (Daily)
Weekly … Looking for the EURUSD to move higher, targeting the Monthly Rejection Block at 1.2414. Monthly seasonality suggests bullishness early in the month with a retrace in the end. For me, if price reaches the Rejection Block early on in June, I can absolutely see a retrace back down. However, I am bullish until price reaches that Rejection Block.
Daily … Expecting the Weekly Open and NYMO to keep price lower today. Not expecting a big move, but with US smart money on the sidelines, anything can happen. Expecting consolidation or slight move to the downside.
GBPUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – RB 1.4189 (Monthly … also Weekly Open) … next NYMO 1.4197
Bullish – We OB 1.4121
Weekly … Looking for price to move higher in June and this week. Will be targeting the prior monthly high at 1.4377. Hopefully this pair will be tradable this month. The Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks around 1.4200 have now been tested twice, making them less likely to resist price again.
Daily … Expecting this pair to stay lower on the day too. Consolidation or slight move to the downside. No targets as I am not trading.
2021/05/31 Recap
DXY – Bearish day. Although I was looking for consolidation or bullishness, the dollar dropped yesterday. Not really a surprise though. As I mentioned, low volume due to US holiday so anything can happen. Range was only a fraction of the normal ADR, so not really a big move.
EURUSD – Bullish day. Expected bearishness but we got a little move higher during the NY Session. Price was in consolidation for the day, then a quick jump and up and then consolidation at that level again. This morning, price has found resistance at the Hourly OB of 1.2244 so far.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. Not a big move up but bullish none-the-less. The interesting piece is that price reached the Weekly Rejection Block at 1.4236 this morning and rejected hard. We will have to see how this plays out now.
2021/06/01
DXY
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 89.97 … next Weekly Open 90.05
Bullish –NYMO 89.78 … next OB 89.52
Weekly … I will be looking for the Dollar to continue moving to the downside in June. Seasonality suggests overall consolidation for the month with a drop early in the month then recovering. Based on the chart, there is still a huge draw at the 89.00 level. I will be looking for price to move to at least this level and possible even 88.25, which is a prior low from 2018.
Daily … I am expecting the Hourly OB at 89.97 along with the Weekly Open at 90.05 to provide strong resistance on the Dollar. We could see price consolidate around these levels or move lower after potentially testing them. If we get the move lower, I will be looking for price to at least reach the Hourly OB at 89.52.
EURUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.2244
Bullish – NYMO 1.2230 … next OB 1.2204
Weekly … Looking for the EURUSD to move higher, targeting the Monthly Rejection Block at 1.2414. Monthly seasonality suggests bullishness early in the month with a retrace in the end. For me, if price reaches the Rejection Block early on in June, I can absolutely see a retrace back down. However, I am bullish until price reaches that Rejection Block.
Daily … We could see strength on the EURUSD and weakness on the GBPUSD. The EURGBP has been in a 2-month consolidation and is now moving back higher off the bottom of that range. If the Dollar moves according to my expectations, I will be looking for he EURUSD to move higher today. Will be targeting last week’s high at 1.2266 and then Hourly OB at 1.2307. Right now, price action is not presenting a decent entry point though. Could use the NYMO open but then the RR would be insufficient as the SL would be a long way from entry.
GBPUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 1.4190 … next OB 1.4183
Bullish – OB 1.4184 … next ON 1.4121
Weekly … Looking for price to move higher in June and this week. Will be targeting the prior monthly high at 1.4377. Hopefully this pair will be tradable this month. The Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks around 1.4200 have now been tested twice, making them less likely to resist price again.
Daily … Still not trading this pair. Have to see how the rejection from the Weekly Rejection Block at 1.4236 plays out. Price moved up a little past the level and touched the large liquidity pool just above 1.4250. This rejection is making that liquidity pool even bigger. Given the weakness compared to the EUR, I am looking for the GBPUSD to continue to the downside if the Dollar stays in consolidation. If the Dollar drops, then I will look for the GBPUSD to consolidate at its current level.
2021/06/01 Recap
DXY – Bullish day. Although the overall day was bullish, from the time of posting price basically moved sideways and was constrained by the Hourly OB at 89.97 as expected.
EURUSD – Bearish day. Right after posting we did see the bullish move up as expected, but price found resistance at the Hourly OB of 1.2244 and then moved lower on the day. Basically a consolidation day.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. As expected, the GBPUSD continued lower on the day with help from the EURGBP moving higher. Price found resistance at the Weekly Open and then moved lower. That Weekly Open level could have been used as an entry point, but the RR would be too great for me. Plus, as I mentioned, not trading this pair until we have clearer price action.
2021/06/02
DXY
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 90.19 (Daily) … next Price Imbalance Low 90.36 (Daily)
Bullish –Weekly Open 90.05 … next MB 89.93
Weekly … I will be looking for the Dollar to continue moving to the downside in June. Seasonality suggests overall consolidation for the month with a drop early in the month then recovering. Based on the chart, there is still a huge draw at the 89.00 level. I will be looking for price to move to at least this level and possible even 88.25, which is a prior low from 2018.
Daily … The Dollar has moved straight up since the NYMO. Price has reached the Daily OB at 90.19 where it has found resistance. I am not expecting the Dollar to move much higher today if any at all. The Daily OB and Daily Imbalance above 90.35 should provide strong resistance and keep the Dollar in this area or push it lower.
EURUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 1.2192 … next OB 1.2214
Bullish – MB 1.2148 (Daily)
Weekly … Looking for the EURUSD to move higher, targeting the Monthly Rejection Block at 1.2414. Monthly seasonality suggests bullishness early in the month with a retrace in the end. For me, if price reaches the Rejection Block early on in June, I can absolutely see a retrace back down. However, I am bullish until price reaches that Rejection Block.
Daily … Price on the EURUSD has not reached the corresponding Daily level that the Dollar has. This suggests strength to me and we could possibly see the EURUSD reverse or consolidate around its current level. I do not expect the EURUSD to move below the Daily Mitigation Block at 1.2148. Will be looking for a retrace back up towards the NYMO or Hourly OB at 1.2214. Time of day will decided whether I consider trading or not.
GBPUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.4160 … next Weekly Open 1.4190
Bullish – OB 1.4121 … Brkr 1.3993 (Daily)
Weekly … Looking for price to move higher in June and this week. Will be targeting the prior monthly high at 1.4377. Hopefully this pair will be tradable this month. The Weekly and Monthly Rejection Blocks around 1.4200 have now been tested twice, making them less likely to resist price again.
Daily … The move down on the GBPUSD is significantly smaller than the EURUSD because the EURGBP is recovering from yesterdays move. This suggests that we could actually see a move higher in the GBPUSD if the Dollar has indeed found its high of the day and consolidates or moves lower. I am overall bearish on the GBPUSD today, but as I mentioned, we could actually see a move higher if the Dollar plays out as I expect it to.
2021/06/02 Recap
DXY – Flat day. As expected, the Dollar was at its high near the time I posted the forecast, found resistance at the Daily OB of 90.19 and then dropped straight down into the NYMO at 89.88 and moved sideways for the rest of the day.
EURUSD – Flat day. Also as expected, the EURUSD also reversed course and moved higher. Price reached up to the Hourly OB at 1.2214 and almost the NYMO at 1.2223 as projected and then also consolidated.
GBPUSD – Bullish day. While I was overall bearish on the GBPUSD, I did say that we would likely see a move higher from the forecast posting time if the Dollar consolidated or dropped. And that is exactly what happened. Price moved through the NYMO open and found resistance in the Weekly Open area, where it consolidated the rest of the day, closing higher.
2021/06/03
DXY
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – Weekly Open 90.05 … next OB 90.19 (Daily)
Bullish – OB 89.77 … next 89.52
Daily … That Daily OB at 90.19 is proving to be great resistance. Price tried to move up to that level already today and was rejected. Now price is dropping back below the NYMO. I am expecting it to continue lower. Usually do not expect a big move before NFP Friday. Typically we see small moves or consolidation. I do think we could see the Dollar drop to at least 89.77, which is an Hourly OB.
EURUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – NYMO 1.2207 … next OB 1.2214
Bullish – MB 1.2148 (Daily)
Daily … The EURBGBP is staying at the low end of its consolidation range. This suggests that the EURUSD should be weaker than the GBPUSD today. Price tested the Hourly OB at 1.2214 yesterday and is in that are now but finding a little resistance at the NYMO. Not expecting a big move up today but will be targeting this weeks high at 1.2255. could see a retrace back down to the 1.2195 area before moving higher, but this is not required.
GBPUSD
D1
H1
-
Key Levels
Bearish – OB 1.4228 … RB 1.4236 (Weekly)
Bullish – NYMO 1.4169 (also Hourly OB) … next Brkr 1.3993 (Daily)
Daily … Price is already higher on the GBPUSD due to the movement on EURGBP. Will be looking for price to retest the Weekly Rejection Block at 1.4236 again today. Price right now is finding resistance at the Weekly Open price. I will be looking for a retrace back to the NYMO at 1.4169, which is also an Hourly OB. Then will be targeting at least the Hourly OB at 1.4228.
2021/06/03 Recap
DXY – Bullish day. That forecast was way off! Did not expect such big moves the day before NFP. Especially did not expect the Dollar to move so much higher. But it found support at that NYMO and shot straight up in the Daily Imbalance area and since consolidated. Will be interesting to see if NFP drives price back down from this Imbalance area.
EURUSD – Bearish day. Also a big move down. Had I held a bearish view of price, the NYMO would have been a perfect entry for almost 90 pips. Price has found support in the Daily imbalance area. Will look to see if NFP drives price higher from this area.
GBPUSD – Bearish day. Another big move down on the GBPUSD. The Weekly Open acted as great resistance and pushed the price lower. Price came up just short of the Weekly BISI below 1.4080.
2021/06/04
NFP Friday. No forecast today.
