Dxy weakness and the new fed chair... thoughts?

Trading Discussion
1

hey guys, just wanted to see if anyone else is seeing what i’m seeing on the dxy right now. with the new fed chair finally stepping in, it feels like the dollar is losing its grip. i’ve been scalping eurusd and xauusd for the last few days and the momentum is legit.

i’m looking at the h4 chart and the structure seems to be shifting bearish for dxy. i’m thinking of opening a bigger swing position on gold if we break the current resistance, but i’m a bit hesitant cuz the volatility is insane rn.

do u guys think the usd is actually crashing for good or is this just another fake out before a big pump? i’m keeping my lot sizes small for now cuz i dont wanna get wrecked by some random news spike.

lmk what ur charts are saying! anyone else longing the majors or are u guys staying neutral?

2

According to Bank of America, if he only talks broadly about structural themes without clearly addressing the reaction function, markets will likely interpret it as dovish, and it looks like the market is pricing in that direction already.

As for whether this is a real crash or just another fakeout, I think it’s too early to call. Warsh only took office in May and his approach is quite different from previous Fed chairs, he’s deliberately avoiding clear forward guidance, so this kind of volatility could keep happening around each of his speeches. Keeping lot sizes small right now makes sense, especially for gold, since if bond yields react the opposite way and rise, that becomes a headwind for gold even with a weaker USD.